TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s analysis of all nine ITV races

1.25pm Haydock – 10/3 Needle Match remains the one to beat but a walkaway price now

Haydock have had 23mm as at 7.12am on Friday, and it is currently still raining , so there is no surprise that the ground is now heavy.

As all three days of this meeting are taking place on the inner course,  it could be very hard work (though I imagine they have kept some fresh ground back, if possible, for Saturday – if not, the third day of racing on the same ground will present its’ challenges).

I had a little nibble on Needle Match at 5s on Monday, as I thought he should have been favourite, despite having a nagging doubt about the likely ground for him (which has duly transpired) putting connections off.

Even though he won on soft ground on his sole start at two (actually Timeform called it heavy), I was worried that William Haggas wouldn’t run him if the Haydock ground turned really deep, and churned up, for Day 3 of the meeting, now that he has got him back where he wants him.

But hopefully he runs the horse.

Needle Match clearly shaped very well in the Greenham before Haggas took an uncharacteristic swing at the Guineas on fast ground just a fortnight later (I backed him there), but that backfired.

I think Haggas was kicking himself in giving into Classic temptation there.

But he gave the horse plenty of time afterwards and I thought he shaped with immense promise from off the pace when second at Leopardstown at the start of August, on ground Timeform called good to firm.

In terms of potential, this QEII entry clearly stands out a mile in this field but I think he has pretty much hit his betting level at a general 11/4 now (there is now 10/3 in a place, as at 4.40pm, which is fair).

He does have plenty to find with Dancing Gemini and Persica, for all they are far more exposed, on official figures, after all. And I am concerned about the ground.

But he is very much the one to beat for me.

The Lost King is unproven on ground this deep, so maybe they will have a chat about whether he runs (though Timeform called it soft when he won so well at York last time).

 

1.40pm Ascot – 6/4 Thunder Call just wins, doesn’t he?

Lord Britain is a NR (coughing), as is Northern Express now – so we are down to the dead-eight.

The ground is back to good to firm, good in places, at Ascot.

I saw people talking up Thunder Call as an ante-post bet at 3s earlier in the week, and I remember saying to myself “that wouldn’t be for me, at all.”

But now the horse is here and the 80k 7f handicap has cut up to just to 10 runners (now nine), and he is trading at just 6/4, guess who was right?

There is always a horrible 48-hour period for ante-post punters between final decs and the race, though.

If he gets out of the stalls then Thunder Call will surely take a lot of whacking, with the step up to 7f looking highly likely to suit given his run-style (hasn’t raced over it since his debut).

Let’s just say he didn’t get the best of rides when second, from off the pace. to a fellow progressive 3yo over 6f in the Shergar Cup last time, and a 2lb higher mark here looks highly bridgeable in a handicap that won’t take much winning for the money.

But I couldn’t back him at 6/4 myself. Not that I would dream of laying him.

If you are looking for an each-way alternative then Addison Grey at 7s would be my lean (there is 13/2, four places, out there, which is obviously better – and a very good bet if you can access), but it could be worth holding off for the Without Favourite markets.

I’ll return to this race on Saturday morning but Addison Grey is the play at 7s and that 13/2, four places, if you want to bet now.

 

1.55pm Haydock – 50/1 Theheatison is the one proven with dig – I am quite keen on him

Rafe’s Da Man is now a NR as at 12.40pm (going).

Just the six runners for this 1m 2yo Listed race, and I just wonder how many of those will line-up on the day with the ground turning heavy for these youngsters.

First Law is the 11/10 favourite after winning nicely enough in a four-runner at Sandown on his debut but that came on officially good to firm ground (Timeform called it good), so heaven knows if he will handle the ground.

Or be allowed to.

The 2/1 second favourite Rocket Boy has only raced on good ground so far, so similar doubts apply there.

As they could with all of these.

Bar one perhaps.

Rafe’s Da Man is from the Richard Hannon yard that hasn’t had a winner for nearly three weeks now (they broke a near 50-long losing spell when winning the 5.25pm at Ascot on Friday), and Timeform have him racing on good or quicker ground so far (Arthurian has raced on good to firm and firm; Romanza on good or quicker).

The 50s outsider could step up considerably at this 1m trip and is only one proven on soft

This is a total guessing game then and the ground promises to be a great leveller regardless, so Theheatison is perhaps not the total rag quotes of 50s suggest.

Sure, he is only rated 75 and has acres to find form-wise, but Timeform called it soft when he ran a career-best when second to a well-handicapped horse in a 7f York nursery last time,  again shaping as if this extra furlong will suit (and shaping very well from off the pace, full stop), and I am going to chuck a score on him.

I have just done so.

In fact, I have pressed up again, as well.

He also finished full of running when previously third in a decent 7f Newmarket nursery (the winner was second in the Group 3 Prestige Stakes last time), and this 1m trip could see him take a massive step forward.

The run-style is clear, and his pedigree wouldn’t put you off either.

Nick Smiley Scholfield, with a 17/2 winner on Friday at Bangor, has made an impressive start to his training career and this will be his biggest success yet.

Highly unlikely but you never know…

As this goes live at 9.02am on Friday , he is 50s across the board on Oddschecker, with no dissenters, so the price is accessible to all (presumably…).

 

2.10pm Ascot  – Heyzoom could be another for the shortie handicap backers

Just nine runners for this 3yo 100k 1m4f handicap , which I thought was disappointing.

But there were only seven runners last year, nine in 2024 and the same number in 2023, so it is par for the course.

We have another shortie in a handicap here, with Heyzoom also priced up at 6/4.

He is now 13/8 in a place on Saturday morning.

I suppose that is understandable given his King George V handicap fourth to Enceladus has worked out rather well and he is just 5lb higher here.

You may say a 5lb rise is harsh for a horse beaten 3 lengths last time.

But the winner is now second favourite for the St Leger and rated 23lb higher; the second is now 17lb higher after bolting up subsequently at Ascot; and the third has also gone up 17lb after winning a Group 3 last time.

And plenty of other horses from that race have franked the form, too.

Gelding operation screams caution at the price

The case for him is bleedin’ obvious then but that gelding operation since Royal Ascot (he obviously hasn’t raced since) hints at an issue that would personally stop me from getting involved.

They must have found him difficult to train as, as a Dubawi colt out of a dam from the family of Nashwan, he would have been a potential stallion prospect had he progressed as well as the other placed horses.

That may seem fanciful talk for a horse currently rated 90 (almost certainly is) but he has only raced four times.

I’ll probably be looking for an each-way alternative against him on Saturday morning.

I did and decided to sit it out.

 

2.20pm Kempton – This perhaps points to 33/1 Percy. Perhaps

A full field of 14 for this London Mile Series 1m handicap – please get your ante-post money back on those balloted out horses, listed below – and, as you’d expect, a hugely competitive race.

I struggled to find a bet in the race on first viewing – I’ll have another look later – but I thought Percy’s Lad was half-interesting in first-time cheekpieces at 14/1.

I’ve had a whopping £20 each way, four places. to tide me over in the meantime

I’ll probably leave it there, in truth. It’s a vey tricky race.

But he is a friendless 33s now and [40.0] win only on Saturday afternoon, and I’ll have a very small (and it will be very small) press-up.

It was a little disappointing that his excellent trainers are only 1 from 22 with this headgear angle, but that isn’t going to put me off, though the fact that I know very little about jockey Ebrahim Nader does a touch, in truth.

But Percy’s Lad is primed to get on the lead from stall two here, so Nader can keep it simple – there will be loads of trouble in behind here – as he did when racing prominently and winning on the horse here two starts ago, albeit narrowly.

He is only 3lb higher here , though that is partly due to a moderate run at Wolverhampton last time, though he was backing up off just a six-day break there, so we will give him a pass for that.

 

2.30pm Haydock – 4/1 Mythical Bay to atone for York display?

Just the eight in this 100k 1m6f handicap (nine shy of the maximum) and it is obviously not a big price we get at least one non-runner, so each-way punters tread carefully.

Soft ground winner Galilean Quality and Mythical Bay take out a large chunk of the market, and I’d probably side with the latter of those two at 11/4 (available at 4.4 to tiny sums as I write this).

But I probably won’t have a bet.

Mind you, he is now 4s in a place, and nearly half a point bigger win-only, on Saturday morning. 

Mythical Bay only went off at 4s for the Melrose last time and seemingly ran well below expectations in being beaten 8 lengths (Galilean Quality finished six lengths in front of him when second to a very exciting winner there), but Patrick Veitch (a racing adviser to the owners) didn’t seem overly-confident in a pre-race interview.

The ground is an unknown but maybe they will fancy their chances a bit more here; this is surely as weak as a 100k handicap as you will find.

 

 

2.50pm Kempton – Romance and wider interest trumps the need for a bet here

Almeric is a NR (lame) and, in a blow to his ante-post backers, Tornado Alert is a NR as at 7.25am (temperature).

Unfortunately for the sponsors of Haydock’s 400k Group 1 Sprint Cup, this 95k race is going to take centre stage. media-wise, on Saturday – which goes to show you don’t need to throw silly, easy money at uber-rich owners to get cracking contests .

You just need a public/hype horse.

The September Stakes is one shy of the ideal with seven runners here – we lost a fair few at the overnight stage, including the 124-rated Bay City Roller, which one firm saw coming earlier in the week with their 9/2 quote – but you’d be churlish to argue with the line-up.

Admittedly, I usually can be a touch churlish on occasion…..

Constitution Hill now as short as 7/2 in places

Anyway, we may as well namecheck the big draw here – Constitution Hill.

Now, I am not sure of the logic of running him here if you are looking for a handicap mark for the Melbourne Cup entry  – running off levels against horses rated between 111 and 117, with the 113-rated Dubai Future carrying a 3lb penalty, is rather flawed – and it can only go two ways.

One, he is left on a mark of 101 if he is comfortably beaten (he surely isn’t going to be dropped, come what may, given how much he has to find) and, two, he gets hiked if he runs out of his skin.

And heaven forbid what his mark does, if he wins.

The current betting suggests that is more likely than logic suggests – he is around a 9/2 and 5s poke, but 7/2 in a few places and shortening as at 4.40pm – but it genuinely would be great if the best Champion Hurdler of my punting lifetime could keep his unbeaten Flat record against such a stellar Group 3 field.

I haven’t got a betting opinion, though.

Even if we did have one more runner, I wouldn’t see it as a particularly enticing each-way race myself, though you are taking plenty on trust if you back Gethin at 6/4 or less after the way he ran at Sandown (has drifted to 7/4 on Friday morning).

Tornado Alert 4s into 5/2 in the last 24 hours

The market slowly cottoned on to Tornado Alert through the week – and accelerated by Bay City Roller’s absence – so that angle has ebbed away on the now 4s poke (and that is only available in one place and likely to come under pressure – in fact, it did about five minutes after I hit publish and he is now 7/2 tops – and now only 3s as at 2.47pm and a mere 5/2 on Friday morning).

No, let’s enjoy this for what it is – a very strong Group 3 showreel, with a heavy Romcom and ageing film star element attached (think Harrison Ford maybe, though I have just checked and he is 84yo ffs, so ditch that!!!), even if not in his premier genre.

Even Kempton are watering…

And there won’t be any late dramas with the ground either – indeed, it did amuse me to read “20mm of water will be applied before racing to help consolidate and reduce the surface temperature of the synthetic track.”

3.05pm Haydock – It’ll be stress free if there are more NRs – and he isn’t of them

As at 9.54am on Friday, we have already had three NRs – see below – so we are down to just 11 in this 100k 3yo+ 1m6f handicap.

We have another in Dancing In Paris, so we are down to 10.

To be perfectly honest, there can be plenty more as far I am concerned – as long as one of those isn’t Stressfree, who I backed each-way at 10s, four places, ante-post earlier in the week.

What I said on Tuesday pretty much holds true – and I think the 7s out there is perfectly acceptable now we are down to just 10 runners but just three places.

He is a heavy ground and course winner who comes in here on the back of a solid sixth in the Ebor last time, and he can race off a 2lb lower mark here.

He flashed home when a neck and a 1 1/4 length third in this race last season off a 5lb higher mark – a performance that can be marked up because of his track position on the near side – and he would still be my number one bet at 7s each way. There is some four places out there.

In fact, I’ll have a little press-up each-way at 7s.

He is 15/2 on Saturday morning.

I wouldn’t be a massive fan of the David O’Meara yard but he is in decent enough form given his is a numbers operation (they had an 80-1 winner on Thursday) and , while jockey bookings may suggest Ashnak is the stable number one, that doesn’t bother me at all.

Scholfield again? – I’ll have a saver just in case

Scholfield’s Glen To Glen is interesting too off a mark of just 80 now (ran well off 90 when trained by Joseph O’Brien), and 12s looks okay about the recent chase winner with form on heavy.

I’ll have a win-only saver on him – he is 20.0 in Saturday morning,

 

3.40pm Haydock – Hopefully Man can be a Marvel in the ground

The problem with having a betting ante-post opinion/position is that you often find yourself wedded to those early thoughts.

That is fine, as long as you can recognise when the price has probably gone, as with Needle Match perhaps in the opener.

I don’t think this is an each-way race now with American Affair out, as maybe Coppull will follow suit listening to connections, making this Group 1 only seven runners. Big Mojo is another potential no-show, too.

However, Marvelman looks a perfectly good 5s (in three places as this goes live at 10.57am on Friday) and 9/2 win-only chance.

Once again, very little has changed since I recommended him at 10s on Monday, bar the price and dwindling opposition.

But his Doncaster win came on good, not soft

Officially, he ran well twice on heavy as a 2yo and won the Park Stakes by nearly 4 lengths over 7f at Doncaster last season on what the course called soft (however Timeform have him racing on that ground only once and they called it good at Donny).

So I don’t go along with the fact that he particularly wants, or thrives in the, mud, though I am not unhappy to see the combination of 6f and testing ground for him here.

And he comes here in peak form.

He ran a screamer when third in the 7f City Of York Stakes last time, making the running in that 7f contest and sticking on remarkably well to finish third to proper horses like Notable Speech and Lake Forest.

As for the 6f trip here, he was coming off a four-month break and was giving the winner 5lb when a 1 1/2 length second to Paborus in the 6f Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle in late June, so I am very hopeful he can step up again here if required.

 

RECOMMENDED ANTE-POST

 

Needle Match at 5/1 in 1.25pm Haydock

Stressfree at 10/1 each way, four places, in 3.05pm Haydock

Marvelman at 10/1 in 3.40pm Haydock

 

——

THURSDAY MORNING

1.Haydock weather watch – and look out for NRs that change each-way terms

The current forecast for Haydock is for 29mm of rain from late Thursday into Friday morning, with the bulk of it landing between 7/8pm on Thursday and 4am on Friday, so please bear that in mind if punting there on Friday/Saturday.

The amounts have been fluctuating wildly during the week – and probably will again throughout Thursday – but a hefty band of rain now seems assured.

So be wary of betting at Haydock on Friday and Saturday until we know how much has landed; we could get each-way terms changing NRs and the fields are not exactly that deep for the money, anyway.

I won’t bet until I see what the weather has done by Friday morning.

The latest forecasts suggests 22mm.

2.Nine in Group 1 and seven in September Stakes

There are nine in the Group 1 Sprint Cup (no Comanche Brave, Double Rush, Mitbaahy and Division) and there are seven in Kempton’s September Stakes (Gethin, Constitution Hill, Pride Of Arras, Tornado Alert, Dubai Future, Almeric and Warrant Holder).

STATS/INFO SECTION

1. COURSE DETAILS

HAYDOCK 

GOING : Soft, heavy in places after Race 3

GOING STICK : 5.3, Saturday 7.10am

Round 5.4. Inside 5.2. Centre 5.3. Outside 5.1

Rails: All races will be run on the Inside course. All rail has been moved into fresh lines since August 8th racing and the home-straight returns to full width.

Stalls: 5f & 6f: Centre. 7f, 1m & 1m 6f: Inside.

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 23mm overnight since racing Thursday. 4mm Friday. An overcast start, westerly breeze with sunny spells during racing. Max temperature 18°C

Weather: dry, maybe very light shower in morning

 

KEMPTON

GOING : Standard to slow

Stalls: Inside

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: Partly Cloudy

WATERING: 20mm of water will be applied before racing to help consolidate and reduce the surface temperature of the synthetic track.

 

ASCOT

Following track renovations since the last meeting recovery has been a little slow and there are some patches of young grass with a less dense sward.

GOING : Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK – Straight: 7.6. Round: 7.4;  Soil Moisture: 37%. (Readings taken on Saturday at 7.30am)

Rails: The rail on the Round Course is positioned between 4 and 5yds out from the 1m 4F start to the Home Straight.

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry overnight to 6.30am Saturday. 0.8mm rain on Friday morning. 1.8mm rain recorded through the past week. A dry breezy day is forecast For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

WATERING:  Watered 5mm on Straight course on Wednesday. Watered 8mm on Straight Course on Monday and 5mm on Round Course on Monday night.

Weather:  dry and sunny

 

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

 

2.20pm Kempton: First Ambition, Final Night, Breakdancer, Lake Como, Zoffandia, Rogue Allegiance, Silca Bay, Sea Founder, Port Road

 

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Charlie Fellowes hood; Romanza, 1.55pm Haydock; 3-61 (since 2014)

Sir Mark Prescott cheekpieces; Synergism, 3,05pm Haydock 31-144 (2016) – NON-RUNNER

Charlie Johnston cheekpieces;  Pole Star, 3.05pm Haydock; 7-76 (2023)

Daniel and Claire Kubler cheekpieces; Percy’s Lad. 2.20pm Kempton; 1-22 (2020)

Andrew Balding cheekpieces; Lord d’Or, 2.10pm Ascot;  21-144 (2016)

 

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed) & NRs

1.25pm Haydock: Balmacara (drawn 3), Fondo Blanco (prom – 4),  The Lost King (prom – 8),  Hankelow (5)

1.40pm Ascot: Ghost Mode (4), Mubasimah (1), Glenfinnan (prom – 2) – Lord Britain and Northern Express are NRs

1.55pm Haydock:  Theheatison (1) – Rafe’s Da Man NR

2.10pm Ascot: Archers Bay (8), Guildmaster (5), Ancestor (7), Turty Tree (4), Cape Fear (3), Lord d’Or (2)

2.20pm Kempton: Percy’s Lad (2), Dingle (8), I’m Workin On It (9)

2.30pm Haydock:  Galilean Quality? (6), Mythical Bay (3), Asia Force (8)

2.50pm Kempton: Gethin (prom – 3), Pride Of Arras (4),  – Almeric and Tornado Alert are NRs

3.05pm Haydock: Aegean Prince (9),  Finalise (2), Hermetic (prom – 14), Kissmehoneyhoney (1) – Synergism is a NR as at 7.44am Friday (going), followed by Mountain Road and Valedictory and Dancing In Paris

3.40pm Haydock: Big Mojo (prom – 7), James’s Delight (prom – 3), Marvelman (5), Coppull (prom – 2) – American Affair is a NR as at 8.09am Friday (going)

 

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Andrew Balding, John and Thady Gosden, Rod Millman (fair/good), Sir Mark Prescott (very good), Saeed bin Suroor (very small sample), Charlie Appleby, Owen Burrows (small sample as usual), Ralph Beckett (treble on Thursday), Richard Spencer, Roger Varian, Roger Teal,  James Fanshawe, William Haggas (treble on Thursday), Michael Herrington

Fair: Jonathan Portman, Ed Walker, Ian Williams, David Evans, John Butler (fair/moderate), Eve Johnson Houghton, Richard Hughes, Mohammed and Santos (1 from 5),  Michael Dods, Clive Cox, Jamie Osborne (15-2 and 7-1 winners on Friday), Marco Botti (33-1 and 14-1 winners on Thursday), Karl Burke (double on Friday), Charlie Fellowes (8-1 winner on Friday), Nick Scholfield (17-2 winner on Friday), David O’Meara (80-1 winner on Thursday), Jim Goldie, Charlie Johnston, Mick Appleby (winner on Friday), Ed Bethell, Tim Easterby (double on Friday), Jack Channon, Jessie Harrington (double at Longchamp on Thursday)

Moderate: Richard Hannon (broke a massive losing run with a 5-1 winner at Ascot on Friday), Ruth Carr (5-1 winner on Thursday), Julie Camacho, Michael Keady, Harry Eustace, James Owen (hasn’t been in this category for a long while – but replied with a 28-1 winner on Thursday), Emma Lavelle, David Menuisier, Simon and Ed Crisford

Don’t know: Daniel and Claire Kubler (0 from 5 of late), Hayley Burton, Nicky Henderson (winner at Worcester on Friday evening), Shaun Lycett (1 from 3; 9/2 winner), Henrietta Knight