TONY CALVIN: Get your Goodwood off to perfect start with this 16/1 shot

I’d be surprised if many punters looked at the four ITV races at Goodwood and were particularly enthused, and I’ll readily admit to being in the unimpressed betting camp.

That is not to say there aren’t good horses on show, as there obviously are, but only a select few will want to unload on Kyprios at [1/2] with AK Bets.

I suspect this won’t be one of my bigger missives, word count-wise, but let’s crack on and see where we end up.

1.50 – Killybegs to bag the lead and hopefully stay there

An 18-runner handicap to kick off with is at least very much my bag over small-field Group races, but you need to watch 1m2f races at Goodwood cowering behind the sofa at the best of times – think Paul Nicholls watching the King George at Kempton – let alone when you get a maximum field going at it.

And, on that front, please see below the list of seven balloted-out horses below.

Ante-post punters of these horses are entitled to their money back, and do not take no for an answer. As I always say, some bookmakers appear not to know their own rules in this area, and are often in need of a hefty nudge to return stakes.

The one for any significant money doing the rounds on Sunday was, predictably enough, Enfjaar. He opened at [9/2] in a place and 4s, but now he is a general [11/4] and 3s, with [10/3] still lingering in two spots.

He is undoubtedly the one to beat, as I was hugely impressed by his win in a quick time at York, and I doubt that a 6lb rise would stop him following up in normal circumstances.

But an 18-runner 1m2f handicap around Goodwood is not normal circumstances, especially when you are drawn 13 and with Jim Crowley in the plate. And maybe the drying ground is not ideal for him, either.

To be honest with you, I found this very tricky, and I will only be playing to very small stakes, but I am going to chuck a few quid on Killybegs Warrior at [16/1]. He isn’t an obvious shortener and he is that price in 12 places, including with AKBets.

He is 14s everywhere else, and I think that price is acceptable too for a minimum-stakes investment.

Now, I wouldn’t be a massive fan of the Charlie Johnston stable – and you suspect the yard’s previously positive showing at this meeting could be a thing of the past (I obviously hope not) – but at least one positive is that you can always forgive their runners some shocking recent performances.

A real hokey-cokey stable.

It is just as well as Killybegs Warrior has been running like a drain. He has not beaten a horse home in three of his last four starts (and there were 37 of them) and he was beaten 10½ lengths in the other contest.

However, he has at least come down 9lb as a result and that obviously makes him very attractively weighted if he can put one leg in front of the other here.

The drying ground is in his favour (it was soft when he was below-par here last season) and hopefully Kevin Stott (who won on the horse at Newmarket last season off a 2lb higher mark) can send him forward from stall six, as most of his better efforts have come when being given a prominent ride.

Oh, I should mention the ground.

It was good to soft, soft in places, on Saturday. It was good to soft on Sunday. And it is now good, good to soft in places, with a couple of scorchers to come on Monday and Tuesday, before rain arrives on Wednesday.

The first-time cheekpieces will hopefully prove a plus – as they were with Northern Express, who made all at Ascot on Saturday – even if the stable’s record with them (see below) is hardly bet-enducing. Since he has had the license in his own name, Charlie is 1 from 28 with this headgear move.

Look, it is clearly not a strong recommendation, and it is certainly win-only given the blow-out potential, but it is only bet I have had on the four ITV contests. In fact, on the whole Goodwood card.

I toyed with going in with some back-up in the shape of the equally out of form Teumessias Fox at [25/1] with AK Bets – the general price in the marketplace – but I decided one small bet was enough in a contest that has in-running grief written all over it.

Hopefully, Killybegs Warrior can at least get out in front and avoid the trouble. And if he is on a going day – a big if – then he could take some stopping off this mark.

2.25pm – Electrolyte makes most appeal

I was surprised to see initially The Parthenon installed as short as [9/4] favourite for the Vintage Stakes at 2.25pm, but I suppose it is a Group 2 in name only – Electrolyte, on 103, is the horse with the highest rating – and the layers probably want to be defensive with the Aidan O’Brien colt early doors and go from there.

But he has drifted to as big as [7/2] on Monday morning.

I wouldn’t have a betting opinion but the aforementioned Electrolyte didn’t run too badly at Newmarket last time considering he was a monumental drifter , and the Coventry runner-up is surely better than he showed there.

The [8/1] knocking about for him is fair.  If you want an interest, he’d be my idea of the best dart to throw, though I can see the [11/2] about Cool Hoof Luke in three places being very popular.

3.00pm – English Oak has attractive profile but underpriced

The dead-eight go to post in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at 3pm and the first thing that strikes you is how much pace (see map below) is in the race, with four of them liking to get on the front end and go.

Lockinge winner Audience is hamstrung by a 5lb penalty for that Group 1 success and, at the weights, only 7lb separates the field on official ratings.

English Oak is the lowest-rated of the octet but he has an impressive form trajectory, although surely further improvement has already been fully factored into his price of [7/2] in the marketplace.

And that [7/2] is coming under pressure too, with the 4s (available in six places) taken on Sunday.

3.35pm – Kyprios a justified hotpot

I don’t play at short prices, full stop, let alone at the odds Kyprios is trading at as he bids to claim the race he won back in 2022.

He is [1/2] with AK Bets – and [8/15] in one place elsewhere – and that is probably a fair assessment of his chances against a set of horses whose measure he appears to have fully covered.

Would he win this at least twice in every three goes? Yeah, probably.

Elsewhere on card – very tricky set of races

Given the paucity of betting opportunities on the box, I went looking for a bet in the four Racing TV races. Not only is Goodwood stretched out to five days, they are putting on eight-race cards, too.

I don’t need a second invitation to swerve a 5f handicap, so the 4.10pm was duly passed over, and the 60k 2yo maiden at 4.45pm is one for those who probably prefer their gossip over limited form book evidence.

Nothing appealed at the prices in the fillies’ 1m handicap at 5.20pm. The layers go [5/1] the field here.

The card ends with a 14-runner 6f fillies’ handicap at 5.50pm. It’s obviously a very competitive race but I thought last year’s winner Executive Decision was a decent enough price (8s in a place but generally 7s and [13/2]).

She has come down 4lb for three solid efforts this season, and she is now 7lb lower than her peak mark after winning at Chepstow last August, but the drying ground is probably not ideal – though she has fair form on good to firm, her best efforts have come with some dig – and it isn’t hard to make a case for most of the opposition.

I am not inclined to force a bet on what I think is an exceptionally trappy punting card.

This is Goodwood, and we have another four days to find better opportunities. And I also hear there is a big meeting going on in Ireland, too….

Go well.

BETS

Killybegs Warrior at [16/1] win-only in 1.50pm at Goodwood. Available in 12 places, including with AKBets.

BALLOTED-OUT HORSES

1.50pm Goodwood: Have Secret, Sanitiser, Mustazeed, Mysterious Love. Sweet Reward, Alpha Crucis, Magic Memories

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Ian Williams cheekpieces 16-141 since 2016

Charlie Johnston cheekpieces 1-28 since 2023

Charlie and Mark Johnston cheekpieces 3-23 since 2022

Mark Johnston 3-21 since 2016

GOING/WEATHER

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good, good to soft in places

GOING STICK READINGS: 7.1 as at 7.30am on Monday

WEATHER: Dry and warm Monday and Tuesday

PACE MAPS

1.50pm Goodwood:  Ouzo?, Real Gain (prominent), Killybegs Warrior, Take Heart, Wadacre Gomez, Bystander?, Real Gain?

2.25pm Goodwood (minimal evidence to go on): Cool Hoof Luke, Tiger Mask

3.00pm Goodwood: Audience, Art Power, Noble Dynasty, Pogo

3.35pm Goodwood:  Al Qareem, Tashkhan, Trueshan?

TRAINERFORM for the four ITV races (does not include Monday’s racing)

EXCELLENT: Charlie Appleby

GOOD: John and Thady Gosden, Karl Burke, David Evans, Aidan O’Brien, Roger Varian, Andrew Balding, Jamie Osborne, Ed Walker, Clive Cox, William Haggas

FAIR: Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Hughes (though needs a winner), Richard Hannon, William Knight, Hilal Kobeissi (only two runners, though one beaten a short-head), Ian Williams, Charlie Johnston, Hughie Morrison, Archie Watson, Hugo Palmer, Ralph Beckett, Brian Ellison, Alan King, Tim Easterby

MODERATE: Johnny Murtagh, Michael Bell, Charles Hills