TONY CALVIN: 16/1 and 10/1 bets to consider, as well as other plays, at Ascot on Saturday

UPDATE at 8.30am on Saturday – Swingalong a bet at 14/1 with AKBets

The ground is now soft all over after 4.5mm into 6.30am Saturday morning. The Ascot rain gauge, as at 8.30am, says they have had no rain in the last two hours.

The forecast is for showers to persist until early afternoon on most sites, but one is saying that is the end of the rain.

If the latter is correct, then they have got away very lightly. I am a 45 minute drive away – yes, far enough – but it has rained here pretty much all night and it is still persisting down.

I am going to have half-stakes on Swingalong, top price  at 14s with AKBets, and then press up (or not) when I see how much rain has fallen by midday.

I’ll sit tight on Annaf for now (though I am just about to have a small bet at 40/1+ on the exchanges, stable doubt or not – see below), and Charyn is also perilously close to being a bet now he has drifted to [15/8] in a few places.

Oh, saddos like me can track the Ascot rain here; https://www.ascot.com/thegoing

And I see it has just started raining again at Ascot…..

Good luck today.

Remember it is end-of-season stuff in the mud, so no need to go mad.

Set for a great day at Ascot

Big fields, competitive races, the odd star name and ground that promised to be not too bad at all (according to the Thursday going stick readings), so everything looked set fair for an excellent day’s racing at Ascot on Saturday.

Then the forecast worsened overnight, and the track could get 20mm up until 1pm tomorrow according to one site.

Then that site downgraded to 5.7mm just before I published this, so I don’t know what is going on. And other forecasts vary a bit, as well.

The races on the round course were switched to the inner track on Thursday morning as heavy was in the going description at that point, and I guess it now all comes down to how much of the forecast rain falls from the early hours of Saturday morning onwards.

All sites currently agree it is coming, but the amounts vary.

Anyway, as this piece goes live the ground is officially soft, so let’s get cracking.

It has to be said the fact Ascot haven’t updated the ground, and stick readings, since Thursday morning, is rather unimpressive.

This column is going live at 10.40am and still nada.

Rafael Nada.

1.20pm – 25/1 Burdett Road could sneak into the frame

Talking of speed boats (sorry 2m+ fans), it is maybe surprising that Kyprios was [4/5] in nine places when the revised betting appeared on Thursday, but more of him in a moment.

One thing that surprised me, looking at the Ascot card, was that the gaps between races ranged from 35 to 40 minutes, which is maybe pushing it in terms of keeping the punters on course engaged.

I know it has been the same before – I just never noticed – so presumably it works for this day.

And when I have been to this day before, you need a good half hour to get a drink between races, so maybe that scheduling is a nod to the big crowd and the inevitable queues for racegoers.

There will probably be a good line of punters – no, I won’t go there but the sniffer dogs need to up their game – looking to back Kyprios, as he is the first of three or four shorties on the card.

He is 12 from 14 in the last two years, and you can forgive him his two defeats in 2023 as he was not at his best last season after returning from a long lay-off.

However, he didn’t run badly and he still managed to finish a neck second to Trawlerman in this race, being worried out of it after trading at 1.02 in running.

He has pretty much returned as good as ever (though the best of his unbeaten 2022 campaign probably shades 2024), and he would probably win this race more than five times in nine, so the [4/5] is fair.

Actually, I think the remaining [4/5], including with AKBets, could be coming under pressure soon,

He is rated just 2lb in front of Trawlerman though, and John and The Real Slim Thady’s 6yo looks to have been targeted at this race again (the break since Royal Ascot has apparently been by design and not accident) and he has freshness on his side over the busier favourite.

He actually opened up at 6s in a place on Thursday, which was quickly taken, as was the subsequent 5s.

Maybe that firm were taking a view against him on the likely ground (and that Saturday rain), as he has never raced on officially soft ground, a view that Timeform agree with.

The other obvious each-way horse in here is Al Nayyir at [7/1] – though he is generally 6s – who was ridiculously impressive at Newmarket last time and looks much improved since joining Tom Clover, though he did have some classy form with previous handlers.

Hang on, AKBets have just gone up top price about Trawlerman at 5s. The firm are betting to aggressive margins on all Ascot races, in fact.

I think the current betting is about right – it doesn’t strike me as a bad each-way race with some dangerous floaters, and a few improvers, outside of the top three in the betting – so I’m happy to sit it out.

In fact, the closest I came to a tip was probably Burdett Road.

I can see the 4yo, who won at Royal Ascot last year, hitting the frame perhaps, without having the necessary class to seal the winning deal.

He was actually 40s on Thursday in quite a few places, but that was taken, and so was the 33s (available then in 13 places) on Friday morning, so his price has shortened up too much for me. He is 25s now, including with AKBets.

One thing is for sure, they will have some fun with him off a hurdles mark of just 133. The Greatwood, anyone?

He won’t get his own way out in front, as he did on soft ground at Newmarket last time (and that track can throw up some odd, wide-margin wins), but a change of tactics worked the trick there and the owner said (admittedly after the race) that was the best he had seen the horse looking for a while.

Step aside Adele, Ken and co, Bill Gredley wants your job.

And he can afford to do it for free….

1.55pm Ascot – Raincheck for 12/1 Swingalong and 30/1 Annaf

It is [6/1] the field if you shop around here, and I am surprised it is not a touch more, as you will rarely see a harder Group 1 to solve.

Twenty sprinters spread across the track, with pace angles ranging from stalls 2 to 15, and barely a bad break between most of them form-wise.

Of course, the 124-rated Audience is the exception, and he will win if returning to the form of his Lockinge and Lennox wins, and he will presumably be gunned out on the far side from trap two (Art Power won from stall one last year with similarly forcing tactics).

He is 12s in a place, and a general 10s and 9s.

Connections blamed an incident in the stalls for his poor showing at York last time but a bigger worry is perhaps the soft ground, and the possible prospect of heavy. He handles soft but all his best form has been on a quicker surface.

That 12s is a carrot all right, though. And if it is nearer good to soft on Saturday, then it is game on.

I don’t intend to go through all the runners here by any means but, looking at my pace map below, I think ideally I would rather be drawn middle to high, and Swingalong certainly fits that bill from 13.

You can ignore her run at Haydock last time, as that was a track-bias race – the first six home were housed in 2,5,6,4, 8 and 3 and Swingalong was seventh from stall 15 on the unfavoured stands’ rail – and her previous two, narrow seconds in Group 1 company at Royal Ascot and Newmarket clearly gives her solid place claims here at the very least.

She is an improved model this season, but the filly was still a respectable fourth in this race last season (as well as being third in the Commonwealth Cup at 66s), so she clearly excels at the track. In fact, you can mark up her run in this race (on soft ground), as she probably wasn’t ideally positioned on the course.

As with the opener, I don’t think this is an each-way race – one firm are paying five places but you pay for it in price, as they have 10 horses between [9/2] and [12/1] – so it was just a matter of whether the 12s (in seven places) was big enough about her.

She may even drift (she was 16s earlier in the week and the numbers have stood up to such a degree that two horses were balloted out – details below) but I do think those prices are fair.

However, that uncertain forecast is a worry – she is ground-versatile, but better on quicker ground – so I am going to take a raincheck on her, and update this column tomorrow once I know what the weather has done/is doing.

Annaf is arguably the overpriced one in here at [30/1] with AKBets (28s available elsewhere).

His return effort at Haydock was a throw-out performance as he got hampered and his third at Newbury last time was effectively his first race since February,

The Mick Appleby yard can’t buy a winner at the moment but, at his best, course winner Annaf has a better chance than those top quotes suggest.

Now, that stable form is grim (see Trainer In Focus below) but I have no problem with siding with a horse from such a yard if the price is right.

It is the people who dismiss it out of hand who totally bewilder me.

But, as with Swingalong, Annaf ideally wants as little rain as possible. In fact, Newbury last time out was the only occasion when Timeform have him as racing on soft ground.

I’ll update on him tomorrow, too.

2.35pm – 10/1 Quantanamera still too big

Three horses were balloted out of this race, so we have a maximum field of 14 around the inner track here.

Given the depth of the field, and it is a relatively close-knit race in terms of ratings, I was a little surprised to see Kalpana as short as 2s across the board on Thursday morning.

Don’t get me wrong, she has really kicked on since a disappointing third when punted for the Ribblesdale, and she is the second-highest rated in here behind Content.

But I thought she was a touch skinny at 2s, for all you can obviously see her winning this, and overnight – I write this column on Thursdays and re-write/edit/sub accordingly on Friday as the prices change – she went out to a more attractive [10/3] in two places, one of those being with AKBets.

At the opening Thursday shows, I thought Quantanamera and Village Voice, both wide-margin winners last time – I’ve had a small saver on the Irish horse – appealed most at 12s and 16s respectively.

There is a fair bit of guesswork when it comes to horses from other jurisdictions but there tends to be a price upside as a result, and surely the former was massively overpriced.

Quantanamera is just 1lb shy of Kalpana on ratings (and 3lb shy of Content) and comes here on the back of a 4-length win in a Group 2 at Deauville, a race in which she travelled supremely well and left Arrest for dead in the closing stages.

I appreciate the St Leger runner-up has not quite reached those heights this season, but he had earlier run to a decent level in a Group 2 at Newmarket, and he was kicked out of the way with some ease at Deauville, with a decent sort a further 3 lengths away in third (albeit well beaten since).

The hood is on here and that could be significant, as she has worn it for her best two performances (though also for her last three starts in Germany too, to be accurate. I think the Racing Post has it wrong).

There is not a lot of pace in here and she has made it before, but I expect her to take a lead.

Double-figure quotes simply seem far too big about a horse who clearly excels in the soft.

The 12s and 11s went on Thursday, but the 10s in a place and general 9s is fine.

3.15pm – 7/4 Charyn a very safe pair of hands indeed

I fully respect the chances of Tamfana and a few others in here (notably 9s chance Facteur Cheval) but, outside of Kyprios, I think Charyn is the most likely winner on the card.

Yes, I know his price pretty much underlines that but he is [7/4] in four places – including AKBets – and I wouldn’t lay that.

Not on your nelly.

I appreciate some will look to play each-way in here – and last year’s runner-up Facteur Cheval probably best fits that bill – but I don’t think this race lends itself to an attractive betting medium in that regard.

All firms are betting to standard each way 1,2,3 terms, by the way.

Charyn looks better than his mark of 122 to my way of thinking but it’s a pretty deep field behind him, with three of his rivals effectively rated 120 and above, with improvers like the supplemented Prague (for 70 bags) and Metropolitan, a French 2,000 Guineas winner, snapping at their heels.

Charyn was at his best when slamming Metropolitan by 3 lengths in the Jacques Le Marois and we all saw what happened in the Moulin last time, a race in which he didn’t have quite enough time to reel in the all-the-way winner Tribalist.

A similar thing happened when he was chinned by Audience in the Lockinge and, given a more judicious ride, I wouldn’t go anywhere near laying him at [7/4].

You always look for negatives when confronted by short-priced horses in big fields but he ticks every box, not least his course and distance win here in the Queen Anne. And the fact that this race is run on the straight course should minimize hard luck stories.

And if it turns heavy then Timeform have him as two from two on that ground.

I can let horses like him go unbacked and untipped, but he is a very fair price. And if he hits 2s anywhere on the day, I will have a very rare bet at those kind of odds.

I know the difference between [7/4] and 2s is minimal, but you have to have a cut-off point in betting or else you would be backing regardless of the odds.

Never a wise move.

Could it be a grey day?

Oh, and I have to take the rise out of a column here, sorry.

I will spare the author’s (and the site’s) blushes – it may have been written tongue firmly in cheek, and I missed the sarcasm – but someone sent me a screenshot of a column earlier in the week that highlighted the record of greys at this meeting.

Yes, exactly.

Now, admittedly, I am not in the least bit tolerant of shite stats – the record of favourites is also a particularly stupid one that gets my goat – but the colour of horses is a new one on me.

Charyn and Ice Max are greys, just so you know.

Tamfana has been the one for whatever early money there has been and the [9/2] and 4s have been taken about her.

3.55pm – 14/1 Nashwa without the big two is a good bet

As the betting suggests, I find it hard to see any of these gatecrashing the Economics v Calandagan party – preference would very much be for the French horse at [13/8], and I’d gladly take evens about him in that match bet – so I headed straight for the Betting Without Markets.

And there was one horse that I was particularly interested in.

Nashwa was available at 33s without Economics (still 28s in a place), and the same price without Calandagan, with one firm offering 16s without the pair of them.

Sorry, for writing “without” three times in one sentence but I couldn’t get around it, without saying a pretentious sans on the Calandagan part.

Hands up, I did manage to get a small bet at the 16s, which I thought was very good business.

For me hopefully, and not the firm in question.

Now, the negatives here are plentiful.

She blew out at this meeting last year when a [5/1] chance in the QEII and her two runs this term haven’t been within a stone of her best.

And 1m2f in possibly deep ground (it could be good to soft, who knows?) is perhaps the extent of her stamina, for all she finished third in an Oaks.

To be honest, I long thought that a mile with ease in the ground was her optimum trip, but maybe she needs further these days, now she is six in a couple of months.

Can I see her beating the market leaders?

Not really. Especially Calandagan.

Can I see her beating the likes of Los Angeles and Iresine for the third spot, or maybe even better?

Yeah.

After finishing second in the Juddmonte last year, she was rated 122 (the same mark as Economics now, and just 3lb shy of Calandagan) and she was only beaten ½ length and a short-head in the Irish Champion Stakes on her next start.

She had a John Virgo-style big break after running in the Dubai Turf in late March – I couldn’t find any public reason why she was off the track for so long – and she was given what I would term a “stepping-stone” ride in the Sun Chariot earlier in the month.

Maybe I am over-thinking it and she has simply regressed, but I saw enough in her finishing effort under a kind ride at Newmarket last time to suggest it was a tee-up job  for something further down the line.

Hopefully, this is it and she could revive former glories here, to a certain extent.

There is still some 14s available out there without Economics and Calandagan.

I can’t tip it because it is only available in one place, but it’s the bet if you can access it (other firms will price these lines up later on Friday afternoon).

And the 50s and 40s each way in the outright market is acceptable, too.

Oh, and by the way, Calandagan is evens without Economics with one bookmaker. That’s big.

You can find out where on the Oddschecker site.

4.35pm – 16/1 Toimy Son the sole play at the moment

Qirat is still the first reserve at this goes live – he has until 1pm on Friday for a horse to drop out to give him a run, so maybe Juddmonte or Ralph Beckett will call in a favour – and his price ranges from 6s to [15/2].

I had him pegged as a 7f specialist but after his second over that trip here last time maybe I was wrong, and a mile is within his winning compass.

He is 1lb well-in and, given his lazy run style (he takes some stoking), maybe the first-time cheekpieces will help, too.

I’ll come back to him in an update, which I’ll flag up on X.

If anyone still uses that….

I am going to keep it simple here with my main tip, Toimy Son, at 16s in seven places, including with AKBets.

I say simple, as he is officially the best handicapped horses in here, having been raised 2lb in future handicaps after his third in the Cambridgeshire.

The ground isn’t going to be a problem for him whatever happens, and the step back down to a mile is another positive, as he faded a touch in the closing stages over 1m1f at Newmarket last time.

There isn’t much pace in here but Thunder Run (drawn 21) made all at York last time , and Elnajmm (14) can go forward – as could Popmaster from 7 – so hopefully Toimy Son is in a fair slot in 17.

I’ll stick him up win-only but I am obviously not going to put you off each-way, with extra places. That’s your call though; only you know what bookmakers you can play with.

At least everyone has the win-only option, so that’s fair. And if there is one day that AKbets are offering stand-out prices on the favs, then this is it.

Of course, it is a hugely competitive handicap. but the one that seems to have come in for money so far is Lincoln winner Mr Professor, who opened up at 33s with one outfit (two firms) and is now as low as 12s and 16s tops.

Now, my other initial lean was the rank outsider of the field. Step forward Alaskan Gold, who is pretty much 66s across the board.

And then I went off him overnight.

I definitely want to see what the weather does for him anyway, as he has a real knee action and he would love it if they copped a lot.

He finished second in a Listed race on heavy ground at Doncaster last season, when wearing a first-time visor, and the blinkers are tried here.

But, against that, his best effort was probably fifth in the Greenham on good ground, and his stamina for this 1m is unproven as it is questionable.

Maybe, connections of Qirat can give him a few quid to step aside before 1pm….

Good luck.

 

BETS

Quantanamera at [10/1] in 2.35pm (9s elsewhere in five places is more than acceptable, so that’s the recommendation; take the 10s obviously)

Toimy Son at [16/1] in 4.35pm. Available in seven places, including with AKBets

OTHERS are suggested in copy, and others may follow in an update.

 

GOING/WEATHER – updated at 11.30am Saturday 

 

ASCOT (round course races now run on inner track)

Going – Straight: Soft; Inner track: Soft

Going stick: 6.4 Straight; 6.6 Round (8am Saturday)

Rain gauge link: https://www.ascot.com/thegoing

Weather:  Now 7.4mm in last 24 hours (and 6mm since midnight).  Looks pretty dry now.

 

BALLOTED OUT (money back on the following for ante-post punters – make sure you get it)

 

1.55pm Ascot: Purosangue, Wiltshire

2.30pm Ascot: Lumiere Rock, Danielle. Lily Hart

4.35pm Ascot:, Tempus, Booyea, Whitcombe Rockstar, Bennetot, Amphius, Treasure Time, Native Warrior, Imperial Fighter, Look Back Smiling, Spirit Catcher, Debora’s Dream, Mythical Guest, Monkey Island, Apiarist, Thunder Roar, Arkhalia Flynn, Qirat, Theoryofeverything, Akkadian Thunder

 

SUPPLEMENTED

3.15pm: Prague (for 70k)

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

4.35pm: Toimy Son (2lb well in)

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

 

Ken Condon – visor, 1-32 since 2013 ; Moss Tucker. 1.55pm

 

Archie Watson – blinkers, 28-188 since 2017; Shartash, 1.55pm

 

Dermot Weld – cheekpieces, 14-92 since 2016; Sumiha, 2.35pm

 

Joseph G Murphy – hood, 3-30 since 2013; Lord Massusus, 3.15pm

 

William Haggas – cheekpieces, 28-186 since 2016; Elnajmm and Godwinson, 4.35pm

 

Alan King – blinkers, 10-80 since 2009; Alaskan Gold, 4.35pm

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

1.20pm Ascot:  Kyprios, Burdett Road, Belloccio?, Trawlerman, The Euphrates

1.55pm Ascot:  Art Power (12), Audience (2), Shartash (prominent; 5), Bucanero Fuerte (15), Swingalong (13), Moss Tucker? (14)

2.35pm Ascot:  Wingspan, Village Voice?, Quantamanera?

3.15pm Ascot:  Lord Massusus (prom), Poker Face?, Henry Longfellow?, Sirona?, Tamfana (prom)

3.55pm Ascot:  Continuous?, Royal Rhyme (prom), Los Angeles

4.35pm Ascot:  Elnajmm (prom), Popmaster?, Thunder Run

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done;  includes a “Trainer In Focus”)

 

******TRAINERS IN FOCUS (two today)*****

 

Mick Appleby

Going into Friday’s racing, he has gone 22 days and 46 runners without a win, and the stable form has to be a big worry here.

Very few are running to form, and all his nine runners on Thursday badly underperformed. And they included five horses that went off between 4s and [11/2].

You have to factor that in.

Or at least acknowledge it.

Tom Clover

Clover has had a great season on the whole, with 33 runners at a strike rate of 16 per cent, but I imagine he would like to see his horses in a bit better form.

It isn’t grim by any news – trainers like Charlie Hills and Mick Appleby, above, are in worse shape – but with his Al Nayyir a 6s chance in the opener, I thought I would highlight his current run.

He had a great time of it from July to September (he had 18 winners from 74 runners in those months) but he is winless in October, and he has had six horses beaten at [7/2] or less in that period.

Hardly a compelling sample, but a fair few have not been running to form.  A very minor concern, but maybe one all the same.

 

Good: Willie Mullins (very good), James Owen, Aidan O’Brien. John and Thady Gosden, David Menuisier, Ralph Beckett, William Haggas, Karl Burke, Joseph O’Brien, Roger Varian, William Knight, Dylan Cunha, Mario Baratti, Francois Graffard, Ed Walker, Raphael Freire (despite no winners and very few runners)

Fair:  Tom Clover (though winners have dried up and arguably more moderate – see Trainer In Focus), Andrew Balding, Tim Easterby, Jane Chapple-Hyam. Ken Condon (not many runners), Archie Watson, Richard Hannon, Kevin Philippart De Foy (winner on Friday), Y Barberot, Clive Cox, James Fanshawe, Charlie Fellowes (no winners), Andrea Suborics (don’t know, in truth), Dermot Weld, Harry Charlton, Jessie Harrington. Joseph Murphy, Simon and Ed Crisford (two winners on Thursday, and another on Friday), Roger Teal, Owen Burrows, Gary and Josh Moore (two recent 66-1 winners), Michael Bell, David O’Meara, Eve Johnson Houghton, Alan King

Moderate:  Mick Appleby, Adrian Murray, Sir Mark Prescott, J Reynier (small sample), Charles Hills (much needed 11-10 winner on Friday), Julie Camacho

Don’t know: J-P Gauvin. W T Farrell