TONY CALVIN: 125/1 each-way swing in the Arc – and an 18/1 win-only back-up

First things first, AKBets are bold type everything in the race on Oddschecker this morning

It’s a good job we have the Arc draw to narrow down the possibles, as my list of probables (is that a word?) consisted of all 17 contenders on Thursday evening.

And I am only half-joking.

There is clearly no form stand-out here – though I fully accept that Minnie Hauk and last year’s runner-up Aventure are entitled to head the market at [4/1] and 6s respectively, both with AKBets  – and I was fully intending to make the case for [125/1] chance Arrow Eagle, the complete outsider of the field, before he got handed trap 16 (which no winner has come out of in the last 30 years, nor stall 17 for that matter).

Not great.

However, I am not going to let that put me off at the price, especially in testing ground which tends to level the punting playbook a touch (though the times yesterday were not that bad).

After all, he was entitled to need his sixth to Byzantine Dream in the Prix Foy last time, his first outing since winning a Group 2 at Chantilly on June 1, and he ran like he needed it badly there, seeming to blow up in the closing stages after a 98-day break.

And maybe the quick ground (Timeform called it good to firm) didn’t suit in the Foy. Take out that prep run and he was on an impressive roll, albeit one shy of Group 1 form (the only time he ran at that level he finished a plugging-on 10^th of 14 in the French Derby last season but he has clearly progressed since then).

Chantilly form is mustard

That day at Chantilly in June he beat Sibayan a short-head in a four-runner race, with Junko in third and Mont De Soleil in last.

And he did it a touch snugly there, too.

And it was a top-notch (well, bordering on top-notch) four-runner race, too.

Sibayan has since won his next three, including a Group 1 by 2 ½ lengths last weekend; Junko was only beaten ¾ length in the top grade by the trusty Rebel’s Romance in Germany last time; and Mont De Soleil has won his only subsequent outing in a Group 3.

I appreciate all roads have led to this race for most, but his trainer Jean-Claude Rouget said after the Chantilly win:

“This race has been the plan since last summer and we’ve stuck to the route we laid out. Arrow Eagle doesn’t move as well as his half-brother but he has a lot of heart. I’m surprised he has become as good as he has. The Arc is the target and he might have one run before.”

Well, he has had that prep, and here he is, as the complete [125/1] outsider of the field with AKBets.

Of course he is a contender for nearer last than first but I am at my grandson’s first birthday party later and I’d deliberately burst the bouncy castle – jumping on it would probably suffice – if I didn’t have something on him at 125s and he won.

In fact, I am going to suggest you do, too.

The draw could be an absolute ballache admittedly but he will have to be ridden for luck off the pace, and the rain in the last 48 hours is hopefully a plus.

Timeform called it good at Chantilly (maybe that was what Rouget was referring to afterwards about his action) but dig clearly suits him well, as evidenced by his earlier successes this year.

I have had far worse swings at a three-figure price (something in the Supreme springs to mind but the name escapes me), so I am happy to go with the Gleneagles half-brother to the stable’s 2023 Arc winner Ace Impact here.

Let’s hope he doesn’t disgrace the family anyway – that goes for me too, later, as I fancy a few (drinks not horses at Longchamp, hence I am focusing solely on the Arc here) today – as I am backing him each-way at 125/1 and 100/1 (get the best terms your accounts allow), which is available with eight firms.

AKBets are betting to three places but you are getting the price, and then some, at those terms.

Their 125/1 is hopefully not be sniffed at.

I have also played him win-only, too.

My initial betting shortlist also consisted of Daryz (who looks to be on everyone else’s too), Alohi Alii, who could well get an uncontested lead from trap four and could be popular in the betting as a result, Quisisana and Leffard.

To be honest with you, if you put another one up here, you could put up five or six – it is that kind of race – so I was going to stick with just the sole play.

Back-up will almost certainly be needed…

But AKBets, who are biggest about all horses in here as this goes live – they are trading it very aggressively, as you can see from Oddschecker, and they intend to be top price about everything this morning– go 18s about Quisisana and that looks a fair win-only back-up.

A 5-length winner of her sole start over this trip (on pedigree it should suit her well), her 4yo campaign was cut short after a hold-up.

Her trainer fought to keep her in training this season and it has paid off with three successes, the latest victory coming in the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville in late August. Top jockeys who rode in that race were very impressed by her.

Her overall level of form needs improving on here and her only two defeats have come at this track, but she has an impressive profile and a decent draw in seven. An able deputy to have on-side.

ARC BETS

Arrow Eagle at 125/1 each way, three places, with AKBets (100s elsewhere is fine)

Quisisana at 18/1 win-only with AKBets

LONGCHAMP GOING

Officially very soft (4.1) – (Timeform called it soft yesterday, and times suggested it wasn’t too bad – Turftrax are saying soft, good to soft in places today)

PACE MAP

3.05pm Longchamp (not a lot of pace in here – and Alohi Alii could have a big tactical advantage): Alohi Alii (4), Sosie? (3), Hotazhell (11), Minnie Hauk? (1)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS