By Tony Calvin - 6 October 2025
I’ll be back with the analysis of this race later (this rolling copy started in the morning and has now been fully updated as at 4.15pm, so please read on).
I want to see which of Queenstown, Dawn Rising, Bunting and Small Fry are left in the 100k 2m handicap early-closer at Naas on Sunday, when confirmations are made for that race at midday today.
And Bunting is the current [6/1] favourite across the board for this, after all.
However, Willie Mullins said the horse is heading to Newmarket in this Sporting Life column today (William Buick jocked up), along with his other entries, Hipop De Loire and Winter Fog.
The ghost-writer of that column is doing an increasingly good job by the way, as getting detailed information out of him cannot be easy.
However, I see Sean Graham, the racing manager (along with one or two others maybe) of Bunting’s owner Tony Bloom, is already making noises about the likely ground (good, maybe a touch quicker) not being ideal.
He told Irishracing.com: “The plan is to run in the Cesarewitch, but the ground is drying out and he is a soft ground horse. We could really do with some showers before then but the weather forecast doesn’t predict that.
“I don’t think we would want to run him on good to firm ground and I think it would be a wasted trip if the ground was good to firm – he’s an out-and-out soft ground horse who wants to get his toe in.”
On the back of that, no doubt, he has been knocked out to 10s in some quarters at 3.17pm on Tuesday.
Let’s see how long that head-above-the-parapet stance lasts.
He could be about to get bigger than 10s….
UPDATE 1.30pm Tuesday: Queenstown and Small Fry have been left in at Naas on Sunday.
It is undoubtedly disappointing to see only 24 five-day entries for a handicap that can take 32 on the day, but that is where we are these days (and 12 of the 24 are Irish-trained, too).
That said, the race only had 24 runners last year, and a mere 21 in 2022.
It will be a maximum of 24 this year too, as it looks like the 12yo The Shunter, winner of this race in 2023, is ineligible, as he has not been given a weight for reasons unknown.
I don’t know why, so I’ll ask the BHA and report back.
UPDATE at midday, Wednesday: The Shunter, originally given as Not Qualified by Weatherbys, has now been allotted a weight, so he can run.
The BHA said: “We can confirm that The Shunter is qualified to run in the Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday. A technical error had resulted in the horse being displayed as not qualified on the Racing Admin system, but this has now been rectified.”
To be honest with you, there were very few horses in here – maybe none – that I don’t expect to be at least the same price when we know the final field on Thursday morning, with better terms attached.
Thankfully, this column doesn’t have to tip for tipping sake and, as the legendary Kevin Pullein taught us, no bet is often the best betting strategy.
Anyway, we effectively have 24 in here, with only two having alternative entries (Queenstown and Small Fry), so you have to hope and expect the numbers would hold up from hereon in for the 175k handicap.
And their prices, too.
But I am looking now.
A good starting point for these big handicaps is horses that come in here ahead of the handicapper.
Joint top-weight Queenstown was raised 2lb to a mark of 109 by the Irish handicapper after his Cadran third on Saturday and he can race off 106 here, so 3lb less than his home mark.
Others well-in are: Surrey Belle (due to race off 6lb higher in future), Belgravian (6lb – though currently 1lb out of the handicap), Reverend Hubert (6lb), Beylerbeyi (5lb), Caprelo (3lb – though currently 3lb out of the handicap), East India Dock (1lb) and Fireblade (1lb).
Of the other Irish horses, this is the amount that are higher/lower than their marks at home (so minus is good here): Hipop De Loire (+1lb higher here), Dawn Rising (-2lb lower here), Bunting (same), Alphonse Le Grande (couldn’t find an Irish mark), Small Fry (same), Ndaawi (+1lb), Mordor (same), Seddon (same), Toll Stone (+1lb), Winter Fog (+1lb), The Shunter (+1lb)
Bolt upright, neither one way or the other at the current prices.
Reverend Hubert, a general 7s chance, would be my idea of the clear favourite after his runaway success in the trial here.
Running off just 83 (6lb well in – his current hurdles mark is 137, too), with Silvestre De Sousa booked – though the jockey won’t be eating much on Friday if he is to do that weight – he has a clear chance.
But the problem is so do so many others.
The one that I liked the look of most at this stage was Beylerbeyi, apart from the one crucial element.
The price.
He is pretty much 10s across the board, including with AKBets, but I want/wanted bigger.
The reason is you are taking a big risk with him over the trip – he has never raced beyond 1m6f115yd before – but that is one aspect that actually draws me to his chance, if that makes sense. The unexposed nature of his claims.
From a handicapping point of view, he is right up there (5lb well-in) after two cracking efforts of late.
He came home very strongly over that extended 1m6f in the Mallard at Doncaster, only being denied by 1/2-length after coming from a mile off the pace, and then he should have won over an extended 1m5f at Newbury, beaten a length after being stopped in his run at a crucial stage.
That Newbury run came off a mark of 94 and he can race off 91 here.
He is handicapped to win and his strong-finishing run-style suggests he is well worth trying at this extreme trip, and the ground should be okay whatever happens (Timeform called it soft at Newbury and have him winning on good to firm three times).
However, you can’t be blase by stating an extra 3 1/2f will suit – and he has already outstayed his pedigree – so you have to factor that in to his price.
I will have to have him onside come Saturday afternoon – though you’d like to see the stable in a bit better form – but not just at the moment (I may regret not taking a nibble of the 10s, it has to be said, as I may be being too greedy – probably am).
All firms are betting 1/4 1,2,3,4 at the moment.
The ground looks set to be good at Newmarket.
They are due some showers on Wednesday but nothing heavy at the moment (see below), and they surely won’t water.
It often pays to look a week ahead when assessing weekend races, as connections may decide to wait until pulling the trigger.
And of the 12 in here, three (Arisaig, Gladius, Mister Rizz) are entered in the 200k Balmoral Handicap at Ascot a week on Saturday.
Something to consider anyway, though of course they could do both.
Francis Ethel, Francophone, Savvy Victory and Skellet have more immediate alternative options this week.
Given the above, I wouldn’t be tempted to price this race up at this stage if I were a bookmaker, but those who have (not many at this stage) have Damysus ranging from [15/8] to [9/4] as the favourite.
That looks fair enough – he was pulled out at Longchamp at the weekend and the expected ground should suit better – but I thought this was a nasty little race for the time being.
I don’t know where Group racing in this country would be without Aidan O’Brien – well, I do, and it is right down the shitter – but the one downside is that he often kills ante-post betting stone-dead with his multiple, double entries, as he has done in the Newmarket 2yo races this week.
Those that are doubly-entered in this 1m2f Group 3 Zetland Stakes are as follows: Allegresse, Causeway, Christmas Day, Dorset, Glacius, Piazza San Marco, Pierre Bonnard, Port Ferdinand, Port Of Spain and Spyce
O’Brien is responsible for seven of those.
Pricing this up is rather difficult then.
O’Brien’s Endorsement doesn’t have any other options this week (not in the UK at the moment anyway) so I guess that is why he has been put in at [5/2] and [11/4] by the few firms that have bothered, followed by Charlie Appleby’s Look To The Stars at [7/2].
O’Brien has half of the field in the 20-strong Group 3 1m Autumn Stakes at the five-day stage, and all of the 10 have alternative options this week.
Yes, all of them….
All those in here with alternative options this week (15 of the 20) are: Allegresse, Archer Royal, Causeway, Christmas Day, Dorset, Frescobaldi, Glacius, New Zealand, Pacific Avenue, Piazza San Marco, Pierre Bonnard, Port Ferdinand, Port Of Spain, Spyce and Straight Up.
Spread on the number of “alternative options” appearances in the column this week is pretty high, with a three-point middle…
An impossible race to price up then (though two outfits have tried) and bet in, though the books have thrown the names up in the air and Appeby’s Al Zanati, Karl Burke’s Hankelow and O’Brien’s Straight Up (currently still in a Listed race at Dundalk on Friday) are towards the top of the market.
Aidan has just six of the 14 in the Dewhurst – he had 13 of the 26 in it on Monday morning, and Charlie Appleby five (now three) – so it is slightly more manageable from a betting perspective.
These are the doubly-entered horses in the race: Brussels, Dorset, Frescobaldi, Italy and Pacific Avenue.
Distant Storm, Appleby’s hugely impressive Tattersalls Stakes winner, is AKBets’ [2/1] favourite, followed by Gstaad at [5/2] and Zavateri at [11/4].
It is clearly a very tightly-priced market at this stage, with the running doubts factored in, but Gstaad and Hawk Mountain, who looked a fair old tool when winning the Beresford by daylight recently, are Ballydoyle’s two with nowhere else to go this week (before seeing the Irish weekend entries, anyway).
The 16s about Hawk Mountain will be a distant memory if he comes here but post-Beresford Stakes comments suggest they may have other Group 1 plans for him.
They said: “He’s in the mix for the Futurity Trophy in Doncaster or maybe he could go to France, the race at Saint-Cloud.”
Mind you, they left him in here on Monday…(maybe in case something happens to Gstaad, though).
The ground is currently now good at York, as per their 3.30pm update on Tuesday, with going stick reading supplied (it was good to soft on Monday).
It’s a dry week there, so we are looking at good ground, at least, for the start of their two-day meeting on Friday.
Maybe even a touch quicker, though it probably isn’t going to dry out much further at this time of the year.
We have 23 entries for a race that could take 22 on the day. Eight of the 23 have alternative engagements this week and they are: Ali Shuffle, Chicory, Flowerhead, Our Cody, Palmeira, Rydale Frosty, Solana Rose and Wor Faayth.
As per my usual recommendation, I wouldn’t touch any of those ante-post, for all the likes of Queen Mary runner-up Flowerhead has obvious claims if rocking up to the Rockingham.
Division is the [3/1] favourite to give Wathnan Racing another winner following a stellar weekend, which saw top-tier wins at home and in Canada – they also have Damysus at Newmarket – and you can certainly see the case for him.
This 800,000 guineas is a full brother to last year’s Lowther winner on this track, Celandine, and he has looked smooth in odds-on successes at Haydock and Yarmouth.
But 3s is nothing that flash at this stage, as this currently looks a tight-knit race on official ratings.
Only four bookmaking outfits have priced this up.
We have 20 entries for this 50k 1m2f+ handicap.
If they all turn up, we will have a full field.
And I could have a full head of hair when waking up on Wednesday morning (if I wake up…).
The double entries in here are: Albany, Divine Knight, Per Contra and Savvy Victory.
Five bookmaking outfits have priced this up and they are struggling to come up with a clear favourite from Erzindjan, Tony Montana and Insanity, all priced around the [9/2] to 6s mark, with a couple of others snapping at their heels.
Erzindjan, at a general 5s, would be an obvious choice as he won his side on the Cambridgeshire by 4 ½ lengths and only got put up 1lb for it.
And he also shaped very well over course and distance in the John Smith’s here at [80/1] in July, for all he ran little bit flat on his return to the Knavesmire the following month.
On what we saw at Newmarket last time, I’d have him as the most likely winner at this stage – he powered home on his side from 2f out, right to the line – for all 5s doesn’t have me scrambling to back him.
Or anything else.
That may change when we get the final field.
I think we can comfortably leave the Coral Sprint Trophy alone in the expectation of far better betting terms on the day, without the worry of a no-show meaning you do your money in cold blood.
We have 40 entries (maximum field of 22 on the day) but I would ignore the following, who are double-entered, for now: Aberama Gold, Alfa Kellenic, Billyjoh, Duran, Eternal Sunshine, Jubilee Walk, King’s Lynn, Kodiac Thriller, Loom, Manila Scouse, Purest Time, Realign, Righthere Rightnow, Toyotomi, and Uncle Don.
And Manila Scouse is due to run at Leicester today.
It is 9s the field if you shop around (though only three bookmaking outfits have priced this up at 9am – and they didn’t include the sponsors, tut tut), with Binhareer, Hammer The Hammer and Northern Ticker all to the fore.
GOING – Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 7.4, Wednesday 7am
Rails: Stands Side Course in Use
Stalls: Centre
Wednesday morning course update: 12mm of rain on Friday evening but dry since. Forecast: Largely dry week ahead with just the threat of light showers on Wednesday (0.5mm), daytime highs of 16 / 17c.
Weather: Dry (1.1mm Wednesday)
Watering: 3mm being applied on Wednesday.
GOING – Good
Going stick: 5.3, Tuesday 3.30pm
Moisture meter reading: 37%
Wednesday morning course update: A cool and cloudy early Wednesday morning. 0.8mm rain in early hours making 12mm in the last 7 days. Met Office forecast: a dry settled forecast with light winds and sunny intervals, 15 to 17 degrees.
Weather: Dry and 16 degrees
GOING – Chase: Good; Hurdles: Good to soft
Going stick: Chase: 6.5 (was 6.8 Monday); Hurdles: 5.9 (was 6.1 Monday) – both as of Wednesday 7.20am
Wednesday morning course update: 35.6mm Rain Past Week; None since Saturday; Watering in progress. Forecast – Cloudy Wednesday 18*, some sunny intervals late afternoon, Sunny intervals with light winds Thursday 17*, Dry with sunny intervals through till racing 17*.
Weather: Largely dry; light shower, if anything, on each day
Watering: No amount specified
1.15pm Newmarket: Francis Ethel, Francophone, Savvy Victory, Skellet
(In Balmoral Handicap on Oct 18: Arisaig, Gladius, Mister Rizz)
1.30pm York: Ali Shuffle, Chicory, Flowerhead, Our Cody, Palmeira, Rydale Frosty, Solana Rose, Wor Faayth
1.50pm Newmarket: Allegresse, Causeway, Christmas Day, Dorset, Glacius, Piazza San Marco, Pierre Bonnard, Port Ferdinand, Port Of Spain, Spyce
2.05pm York: Albany, Divine Knight, Per Contra, Savvy Victory
2.25pm Newmarket: Allegresse, Archer Royal, Causeway, Christmas Day, Dorset, Frescobaldi, Glacius, New Zealand, Pacific Avenue, Piazza San Marco, Pierre Bonnard, Port Ferdinand, Port Of Spain, Spyce, Straight Up
3pm Newmarket: Brussels, Dorset, Frescobaldi, Italy, Pacific Avenue
3.15pm York: Aberama Gold, Alfa Kellenic, Billyjoh, Duran, Eternal Sunshine, Jubilee Walk, King’s Lynn, Kodiac Thriller, Loom, Manila Scouse (finished fourth at Leicester on Tuesday), Purest Time, Realign, Righthere Rightnow, Toyotomi, Uncle Don
3.40pm Newmarket: Queenstown and Small Fry
1.10pm Ayr – Cromwell adds a big question mark to the Ayr opener Classic Maestro…
1.50pm Newmarket – 14-runner 3yo 6f handicap sets the ITV ball rolling Reciprocated, Enricher and…
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