TONY CALVIN: 12/1 chance the best betting option in Futurity

Busy week on ITV

I wasn’t going to bother with an ante-post piece, as we have ITV Racing on three consecutive days from Friday onwards, and I prefer to go in with a blank state and a clear mind.

However, I know the double-entries section is popular, and I didn’t have the excuse of being too drunk in the Irish Sea to write this, as was the case last week, so I have included Saturday’s here (ITV are showing 10 races, from three tracks, but Newbury looks touch and go at the moment – see weather and current goings below) and I have decided to include some analysis on the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster.

It is a Group 1 after all, so I thought I better show willing. Particularly as it is an early-closer, so there has been some betting up on the race for a while.

However, Nebras was supplemented on Monday, so there is a new kid in town now.

It is good to have Cheltenham back on the box on Friday and Saturday though, and we all really look forward to the proper onslaught of post-race Festival quotes for races five months down the line.

Even bookies’ gotta eat.

There is rain around at all five ITV tracks this week. Only light showers in the main, but keep an eye on changing forecasts.

The Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster

Anyway, on to that Group 1 2yo race at Donny.

The numbers have dropped from 44 to 19 at the five-day stage, and I thought I may as well start with the supplemented Nebras.

It’s a curious one as he is a 20s poke (in a place) and he didn’t look to have done anything too flash when winning at Newmarket earlier in the month, though I suppose he beat an experienced horse there, and it was 3 lengths back to the third.

John and The Real Slim Thady already had one of the favourites in here in Detain, so the Gozzas must have seen something significant at home since to persuade the owner (not that he will be concerned at Labour stopping his heating allowance this winter) to part with £17,500 in order to race.

That is the only conclusion to draw really as Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Imad Alsagar, said immediately after that maiden win: “John and Thady Gosden expected Nebras to finish second or third, so he’s surprised us a bit. Whether he runs again this year we don’t yet know.”

That didn’t suggest a Group 1 race next, to me.

Oh, before I kick on further, I should mention the ground here.

It is currently soft for the two-day meeting starting on Friday, and I can’t see it drying out. No going stick reading as yet, though.

Peter Piss Poor.

Aidan O’Brien has six of the 19 entries, so you can’t really go near anyone of those for ante-post purposes – Autumn Stakes winner Delacroix is the shortest at a general 5s, and it sounds like he is a definite runner to judge from trainer comments on Monday afternoon – and Wimbledon Hawkeye remains the favourite.

He ranged from 3s to 4s on Monday morning and nothing has changed after the midday confirmation stage. He is now a general [7/2, with 4s available in two spots.

In fact, the only surprise no-show (to judge from the ante-post betting) was Aftermath, who was priced up between 6s and 8s.

There is no doubt that Wimbledon Hawkeye is the right favourite here, as he is the form (and time) horse on his Royal Lodge defeat of Royal Playwright in the soft.

Connections are apparently very happy with him after he worked on Saturday – though, let’s face it, they never say when they have worked like a drain, do they? – and you could even argue his previous York second to The Lion In Winter was every bit as good as his Newmarket win.

But the question for him is will he be that much shorter on the day? Probably not.

In fact, that thought occurred to me when assessing all of the field (by the way, see the three double-entries below, which include 10s poke Anno Domini).

The answer is pretty much no. Even at best odds, five horses are priced between [4/1] and [7/1], with 14 more in the race besides.

Seaplane best ante-post value at 12/1

Seaplane was a left-field (ish) selection, I thought, but he is only priced up at a 10s.

I was hoping for bigger, and I don’t even know if this is definitely the plan for him (I assume so, but I don’t know for sure).

He broke his duck on his third start in style over 7f in the soft at Newmarket and the clock suggested it was a Group-race performance, and Oliver Cole duly namechecked this race for him afterwards.

It was disappointing to see the runner-up humped at odds-on at Nottingham next time but the well-bred winning debutante that day could be a very smart filly, so it may be a mistake to beat him up with that form-line.

However, it has to be said his earlier Ascot second could have worked out better too, with the winner Calla Lagoon beaten at Ponty on Monday and the third Too Soon an underwhelming (and costly) fourth in the Zetland.

At this stage, I thought 10s was just a touch too skinny, even if The Time Bandits will like him and the step up to 1m will definitely suit this Golden Horn half-brother to good stayers such as Sumo Sam and Sun God.

In fact, his pedigree suggests he should blossom at a mile and beyond, and Saturday will be a test of stamina.

Actually, stop press, just before I finalized this piece, two firms offered him at 12s, which had me half-tempted, but let’s see what price he is on the day and what opposition he faces.

However, if you want an ante-post interest, he is the one who appeals most at [12/1].

Back on Thursday morning with a look at Cheltenham and Donny on Friday.

Until then, go well.

GOING AND WEATHER FOR ITV TRACKS THIS WEEK (Friday onwards)

CHELTENHAM (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going:  Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.6 as at 8am Monday

Weather:  Light showers Tuesday onwards, but maybe 5mm combined Wednesday and Thursday

DONCASTER (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Soft

Going stick: N/A

Weather:  Light showers all week

NEWBURY (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Heavy (course says: “We will need a bit of luck with the forecast this week – the track won’t take much more rain”)

Going stick: 3.0 at Monday 7am (3.0!!!!!)

Weather:  Light showers all week

AINTREE

Going: Good to soft, soft in places

Going stick: N/A

Weather:  Light showers all week

WINCANTON

Going: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.8 on Monday 8am

Weather:  Light showers all week

SATURDAY’s DOUBLE ENTRIES FOR THE 10 SATURDAY ITV RACES

1.10pm Cheltenham: Bowtogreatness, Ceanndana, Farnoge, Hymac, Imperial Saint, Jazzy Matty, Lisnamult Lad, Making Headway, Moon D’Orange, Riskintheground, San Salvador, Theatre Man, Transmission

1.30pm Doncaster: Bob Mali, Diego Ventura, Itsatenfromlen (ran at Deauville on Monday), Nardra, Panama Black, Pellitory, Qetaifan, Star Anthem

1.45pm Cheltenham: Better Off Alone, Fine Margin, Intense Approach, Kingston James

2.05pm Doncaster: Cover Up, Sergeant Pep, Vespasian,

2.20pm Cheltenham: Back On The Lash, Chasing Fire, Escaria Ten, Pachacuti, Quick Draw, Young Buster, Your Own Story

2.40pm Doncaster:  Anno Domini, Benevento, God Of War

2.55pm Cheltenham: Catch Him Derry, Cruz Control, Gwennie May Boy, Hardy Boy, Idem, La Renommee, Lihyan, Lisnamult Lad, Royale Margaux, Watergrange Jack

3.10pm Newbury: Anno Domini, Benevento, God Of War, Mirabeau, Bob Mali, Diego Ventura, Panama Black, Qetaifan, Star Anthem

3.30pm Cheltenham:  Dodger Long, Latin Verse, Rocheval, Salver

3.45pm Newbury: Feigning Madness

SATURDAY SUPPLEMENT (for 17.5k)

Nebras in Futurity – 2.40pm Doncaster