By Tony Calvin - 2 August 2024
Horses are allowed to be withdrawn because of the going, without repercussions, as long as the ground has changed since the declaration stage.
I imagine this was designed for rather more extreme changes than “good to firm, good in places”, being flipped to “good to firm”, but that loophole allowed Align The Stars to be officially taken out of the Gordon Stakes on Thursday afternoon. And the trainer was fully entitled to do so, as things stand.
Everyone knows that the reason he was withdrawn on Thursday (and therefore changing the each-way terms of what was also an ante-post betting race, so it had betting implications) was that connections wanted to take advantage of his mark of 99 in the 1m6f handicap at 14:25, rather than running in a Group 3 in which he was the outsider of five. And not because of the good to firm ground.
Indeed, if he duly takes his place in the line-up at the weekend, then he will almost certainly be running on, you’ve guessed it, good to firm ground.
I know this loophole has been used to cover up a multitude of sins in the past, most noticeably bad draws – and this is one of hundreds of examples, and indeed he is not the only one of horses taken out on Thursday and which are set to run today and on Saturday (think Benacre, Darkness and Qirat) – but isn’t it time we had some honesty from connections, and some leadership from the BHA?
Indeed big Friday market springer Darkness was taken out because of the ground on Wednesday, too.
It will be interesting to see what the regulator has to say on Saturday if the horse runs on good to firm, which he probably will, as he the favourite.
In the grand scheme of things wrong with racing, this is very small beer, but the charade surely has to stop.
Anyway, let’s crack on with the racing.
The first firm up on Goodwood’s opener on Saturday had four 10/3 co-favourites, with Lions Pride available at 11/2. I can’t recall seeing that before.
Whether all five run is another matter as the good to firm (even though watered, with some showers possible on Saturday – – they had 1mm of rain yesterday, avoiding the thunderstorms in the south) may scupper the plans of the likes of Relentless Voyager and Al Aasy perhaps, and there is no guaranteed pace in here.
Phantom Flight, [7/2] in four places, looks the most likely pace-setter and he defied savage market weakness to beat Al Aasy and win on his debut for the in-form George Scott over 1m2f at Newbury last month.
But is the step up in trip ideal for him, and will he back up that Newbury run, his first run for nearly a year? I’m not so sure.
I’ll leave the opener alone.
The aforementioned Align The Stars is a general [11/4] chance for this 1m6f handicap – 3s in one place – and he and 4s poke Fairbanks (though, again this is available in just one place) take out a big chunk out of the market.
You can certainly see the case for both, and Fairbanks was incredibly strong in the market when bolting up at Newmarket last time, but surely this race has more depth than the betting suggests.
I couldn’t believe it when Euchen Glen opened up 33s in four places for this on Thursday morning, and I actually think he still remains a fair price at the general 18s now.
Now, he could well drift back out as the 11yo clearly doesn’t have a sexy profile, but I am happy to play each way now and press up if he does lengthen back out.
To put it simply, his current form doesn’t entitle him to be priced up like he is.
He took a while to get fit this season – apparently he was as big as two bulls when failing to beat a rival home in two starts – but he has really blossomed now, beating a hat-trick seeking Baileys Khelstar at Ayr two starts ago, and then finishing a fine sixth in the John Smith’s Cup last time.
He is actually 1lb lower here, as he raced under a 5lb penalty at York, and this ground-versatile oldie has excellent course form, too. Maybe he would prefer a little bit more dig, but I’m not worried on that score. His fourth in the Ebor last season came off on good to firm ground.
He finished third in this very race in 2022 and 2023 to very well handicapped horses in Trawlerman and Sweet William respectively – and off much higher mark than this, too -and he finished a neck second over 1m4f in a Group 3 at this meeting in 2021.
You can get 18s, four places, in six places on the Oddschecker grid and that has to be the call. I don’t mind Rossa Ryan riding him, either.
Oh, two horses were balloted out of this. See details below.
I’ll keep this short and sharp as I don’t have a betting opinion but, if I were a bookmaker, I think there could be some mileage in fielding against the top three in the market.
Free Wind, Caius Chorister and Melo Melo are best-priced at 3s, 4s and [11/2] respectively and, if you got them in the can at those prices (or lower), I think you have plenty running for you.
However, narrowing down a specific bet looks too tricky to me, for all Divine Comedy looks okay at 20s and 18s.
With 38 horses balloted out of the Stewards Cup, it was probably a bad time to ditch the consolation race – money back for the horses listed below, ante post punters – but the main event is as difficult as ever.
Purosangue is 4lb well-in after his second in a Group 3 at Sandown last time, so I am surprised he is as big as 8s in a place, and I couldn’t put you off that bet if you can access it.
I wouldn’t feel comfortable tipping on those one-firm only terms – and maybe he would ideally want more dig – but he was only beaten a neck by Big Evs in the Molecomb here last year and has a very good chance.
Mind you, he has 27 rivals to contend with, and I fancy 10yo Summerghand could be a thorn in his side.
I feel a bit like Phil Mitchell tipping another horse into double-digit years.
In the days when I used to watch Eastenders, I always remember him using the line “oldie but goodie” when going off with Kathy Beale (and actress Gillian Taylforth has aged ridiculously well to be fair) but Summerghand, like Euchen Glen, has a lot to recommend.
Granted, he ran poorly over 7f at Ascot last time, but the slow tempo of that race didn’t suit him, and he had earlier run a blinder off a 2lb higher mark than this when third in the Bunbury Cup.
Winner of this race in 2020, when racing off an 17lb higher mark, he obviously has an in and-out profile but he will surely get a the strongly-run 6f he excels at here and a mark of 91 is clearly a gift on his back-form (even if he is set to go down another 1lb in future).
All his best efforts have been on quick ground or on the all-waether and I like his midfield draw – I am not a fan of being on the wings – and the generally available 20s is very fair. He is actually 22s in a place.
I had reservations about Qirat’s stamina (and draw) for a 1m handicap here on Thursday but I still took the chance and tipped him, as he is so well handicapped. And before he was taken out of that race, he was very well supported.
So if I liked him then, I have to like him here in this 14-runner 7f handicap from a midfield berth, even if this is probably a touch deeper race (though fewer runners) and I’d actually be very wary of his now-blinkered stablemate Serried Ranks.
I have backed him at [9/2] and that is his general price – including with AKBets – and I find it hard to believe the one rogue price of [13/2] is still available in the marketplace. And a bit of 5s, too.
Clearly, take that if you can.
The horse he beat over course and distance in May is now rated 17lb higher after two subsequent wins, and Qirat doesn’t look to have fully got home over a mile in his next brace of starts, including when ridden too aggressively at Newmarket last time. But he has run adequately on both occasions.
He is surely a lot better than a mark of 92 in his optimum conditions and [9/2] win-only looks a decent bet. Obviously, take that [13/2], and the 5s elsewhere, if it is still available when you read this.
If he returns to the form of that win here in May, he will take a fair bit of beating. The formline was further boosted when the third won here on Wednesday, and the sixth has bolted up since, too.
I don’t fancy anything in the last two races at Goodwood, so on to Newmarket, where the ITV cameras are showing a couple of contests.
I don’t really like betting on the July course, as they tend to go mad with the watering. And, since Monday, they have put a colossal 39mm on the track.
How that will ride is anyone’s guess, and I just hope they don’t get any significant rain.
There is nothing doing for me in the opening nursery at 2.05pm and, to be honest, the 1m4f Listed fillies and mares’ contest at 2.40pm wasn’t that much more enticing.
So I will stick with the three Goodwood plays.
I only tipped three horses in the opening three days – the least I can ever recall at a big meeting – but we have got a bit busier towards the end of the week, so here is hoping.
Go well.
BETS
Euchen Glen at [18/1] each way, four places, in 2.25pm at Goodwood. Available in six places.
Summerghand at [20/1] win-only in 3.35pm at Goodwood. Available in 10 places (also available at 22s in one place)
Qirat at [9/2] win-only in 4.10pm at Goodwood (available at 13/2 and 5s in one place apiece)
BALLOTED-OUT HORSES
2.25pm Goodwood: Entrancement, Duke Of Verona
3.35pm Goodwood: Aberama Gold, Shagraan, Executive Decision, Baldomero, Many A Star, Emperor Spirit, Sergeant Wilko, Haymaker, Holkham Bay, Tropical Island, Batal Dubai, Lir Speciale, Alfa Kellenic, Almarada Prince, Eminency, The Big Board, Thunder Blue, Bishop’s Crown, Aramram Manila Scouse, Flaccianello ,Ingra Tor, Danger Alert, Rousing Encore, Hierarchy, Monsieur Kodi, The Ridler, Ormolulu ,Capote’s Dream, How Impressive, Alcazan, The Coffee Pod, Crow’s Nest, Watchya, Reigning Profit, Cooperation. Concierg. Thismydream
5.20pm Goodwood: Padishakh, John Chard VC, Bletchley Storm
FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for all Goodwood races)
Kevin Ryan cheekpieces 16-158 since (2016)
David Evans visor 36-310 (2009)
Mick Appleby cheekpieces 17-169 (2016)
Tom Clover cheekpieces 3-29 (2018)
Ralph Beckett blinkers 38-240 (2009)
Gary and Josh Moore cheekpieces 0-3 (2024 – all placed though); Gary 7-87 (2016)
Gary and Josh Moore blinkers 1-5 (2024); Gary 24-176 (2009)
Andrew Balding cheekpieces 12-92 (2016)
Eve Johnson Houghton blinkers 11-116 (2009)
GOING/WEATHER
GOODWOOD
GOING: Good to firm
GOING STICK READINGS: 7.8 as at 7.20am Friday
WEATHER: Dry Friday; maybe 2mm Saturday afternoon
WATERING: Bends watered again on Thursday night and 5mm put on track
NEWMARKET
GOING: Good, good to firm in places
GOING STICK READINGS: 6.8 at 7am on Thursday
WEATHER: Minimal showers Friday and Saturday
WATERING: 15mm Monday/Tuesday; 12mm Wednesday; 12mm on Thursday
PACE MAPS for ITV races
1.50pm Goodwood : Phantom Flight
2.25pm Goodwood : Fairbanks (prominent), Intinso, Sheradann, Euchen Glen?, Ayyab, Great Bedwyn?, Align The Stars (prom)
3.00pm Goodwood : Caius Chorister?, Divine Comedy (prom), Night Sparkle (prom), River Of Stars (prom), Sumo Sam, Grateful (prom)
3.35pm Goodwood: Lethal Levi, Get It, Dark Thirty?, Rhythm N Hooves; also other prominent racers
2.05pm Newmarket: Magic Mild, Ardeur, Ghost Run, Dolce Vitta, Naina, Art Design
2.40pm Newmarket: Climate Friendly, Divina Grace
TRAINERFORM for the ITV races (does not include Friday’s racing)
EXCELLENT: George Scott, Sir Mark Prescott
GOOD: Roger Varian, William Haggas, Andrew Balding, David O’Meara, John and Thady Gosden, David Menuisier, Joseph O’Brien, Jim Goldie, Sheena West, F-H Graffard, Ralph Beckett, Aidan O’Brien, David Evans, Michael Dods, Hugo Palmer, Simon and Ed Crisford
FAIR: Richard Hannon, Charlie Johnston (borderline moderate with so many runners, though 2 winners from 13 runners on Tuesday), David Simcock (winner on Thursday), Karl Burke (arguably more good), Jonathan Portman, , Mick Appleby, Ian Williams, Richard Fahey, Sean Woods, Harry Eustace, Henry De Bromhead, Charambolous/Clutterbuck, Archie Watson, George Baker (arguably good), Jack Channon, Jamie Osborne (winner on Thursday), Clive Cox, George Boughey, James Owen (arguably good), Rae Guest, Paul and Oliver Cole (20-1 winner on Thursday)
MODERATE: Kevin Ryan, Richard Hughes, James Evans. John and Sean Quinn, Eve Johnson Houghton
DON’T KNOW: A De Mieulle, John Ryan (no runners for a while)
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