NTT20 PODCAST: How to profit from this likely cagey Championship contest

Bristol City travel to West Bromwich Albion for a televised game on Sunday at 3pm, and we are looking to get the West Country underdogs onside with two selections.

On the NTT20 Betting Show, Nick Goff opted Bristol City Draw No Bet. West Brom have hit the skids form-wise with just two wins in 15 league games (10D 1L). The underlying numbers suggest this is a legitimate drop off in performance from WBA rather than an unfortunate blip, and this is reflected in the uncharacteristic concession of soft goals and constant stodginess in attack.

On top of that, this week manager Carlos Corberan has spoken publicly this week about budget slashes over the last year or two – interesting timing for public statements on such matters given current and recent managerial vacancies in the Premier League, with his name often linked.

With only eight goals in 10 home games this season, West Brom make very heavy weather of attacking and breaking teams down at the Hawthorns. Bristol City are a nightmare opponents in that sense – a team that excels out of possession and on the break, sitting in a mid block and waiting to pounce.  They have good pedigree in cup competitions under Liam Manning, beating West Ham and taking Nottingham Forest all the way to penalties, and have picked up impressive away wins at possession-based sides Norwich and Middlesbrough this season.

There are two selections that appeal to us here.  First, we like under 0.5 first half goals at 7/4 with AK Bets. This has landed in four of Bristol City’s last five games and in four of 10 West Brom home games this season. The tactical approach of both teams suggests that this is unlikely to be a fluid, basketball-style affair. Bristol City will look to frustrate the home side and wait patiently for a chance to nick a goal in transition. We expect West Bromwich Albion to be short on panache, nervous in front of an increasingly frustrated home crowd, and potentially vulnerable to defeat.

To reflect our desire to get Bristol City onside, we’ll add Bristol City win to nil at 19/4. While the 1-0 scoreline feels tempting, Manning’s side have scored two goals or more in 5/11 away games, and it would be a shame to lose out on a good stance if they were to win handsomely to nil.

Selections:

1pt Under 0.5 first half goals, 7/4

0.5pt Bristol City win to nil at 19/4