TONY CALVIN: Nassau looks ripe for an each-way bet, and an 11/1 chance stands out

1.50pm – All 14 like to lead or have raced prominently in recent starts

I try to supply as much information as possible in this column for you to make up your own minds too, as it is surely vital that people think for themselves when parting with their cash.

Indeed, I have added a new snippet below – horses that have been supplemented – as someone on X suggested it. The more facts you have at your disposal, the better.

I had a chat with someone earlier in the week who told me that analysis of their website columns suggested that readers just simply look for the tips and log back out without reading the cases – the average read-time was apparently incredibly short – and I find that pretty sad.

I appreciate that readers don’t have the time to do that with some columns – if they do take the time to read, they miss the price, another disappointing state of affairs – but you simply have to give full reasons for your selections regardless.

On a related theme, I also find it curious that some don’t do the basic groundwork that I include below.

The reason why I started carrying it is that, as I did the prep, I thought I may as well include it.

Some are dismissive of pace maps, for example, as they think they are redundant as soon as they are published – in that jockeys and trainers can read too, and they change tack accordingly – but good luck if you are ignoring the speed element in the opener.

There are 14 runners, and all have at least raced prominently in recent outings and most like to kick on. I don’t think I have ever seen that before in a big-field handicap.

So maybe on this occasion the pace map isn’t worth a toss!

Just a quick word on the going.

The ground is now good to firm, good in places, and they have now watered – though just 5mm on the bends only, which surprised me, as I thought they’d douse the whole track given Tuesday’s times – and the rain could well not arrive until Thursday afternoon now according to a few sites I looked at.

It’ll be proper rattling on Wednesday.

Back to the opening 1m2f handicap, which I found very hard to decipher.

I switched this way and that. I thought I may have found the answer in 11s poke Aragon Castle, who comes here in good nick and has course form, but then I decided I wasn’t entirely sold on his stamina over 1m2f.

I came to the conclusion that I wasn’t going to have a bet, so I am not tipping in the race.

2.25pm – Wathnan Racing to the fore once again

Wathnan Racing seemed to have an early policy of buying horses but leaving them with their original trainers, but this appears to have fallen by the wayside. They are now giving Hamad Al Jehani plenty of ammo.

In the opener, Midnight Gun has been bought and sent to him, and Al Jehani has now got his hands on The Strikin Viking after he was purchased from Middleham Park Racing after the horse finished second in the Railway Stakes for Kevin Ryan.

No doubt telephone numbers were involved, so the new handler will be under pressure to deliver.

I suspect he will here, as The Strikin Viking appears to bring the best form and time credentials to the race, but I guess AKBets’ price of [5/4] tells you that and then some. There is [11/8] out there.

However, the more you look at the race, the deeper it gets, with Tropical Storm and Billboard Star reasonable each-way alternatives – there are nine runners, so punters have the wriggle (others may say wiggle) of one non-runner because of the ground – at [9/2] and [6/1] respectively in the marketplace.

But this is another race I am sitting out.

3pm – Five could become four in Gordon Stakes

A hugely disappointing turn-out of five runners for the 200k Gordon Stakes and it could well become four, as apparently Align The Stars will run off a mark of 99 in the 100k 1m6f handicap on Saturday if he gets in. He is currently number 20 in a maximum field of 14.

So we will know whether he runs in this race at 10am on Thursday. Not ideal, especially as that will scupper the 1,2 each way terms.

They seem to rate Jan Brueghel at Ballydoyle but, more importantly, so do the bookmakers here, as he is odds-on across the board (the one bit of rogue [11/10] out there was taken on Wednesday morning, but there is one patch of evens).

That is surely a touch defensive as he has to give weight to two better horses as it stands – he picked up a 3lb penalty for a neck success in a Group 3 over 1m2f at the Curragh last time – and this will be the quickest ground he has raced on.

But Timeform say it was good and good to soft for his successes, so it is not as if he has been winning on hock-deep ground, and they do think he will be a much better horse, going up in trip.

I don’t see any need to get involved in this race, but maybe Derby fifth Sayedaty Sadaty, now with David Simcock after being bought by an Australian syndicate – presumably he is heading Down Under sooner rather than later – is the best bet in the race at a generally-available 4s in the marketplace.

3.35pm – Nice each-way shape to Nassau, so step forward Elmalka

The Nassau Stakes has a nice each-way shape to it. I don’t think anyone would disagree that Opera Singer and Emily Upjohn are the best horses going into the race, but not by much, and they dominate the market at [15/8] and [2/1] respectively. And that is if you shop around.

Surely, the glaringly obvious play in here is Elmalka each way at [11/1] with AKBets and ten others on the Oddschecker grid. There is actually one spot of 12s out there.

Sure, she has nearly 3 lengths to find with Opera Singer on their Coronation Stakes form last time but hopefully the step up in trip will enable Elmalka to at least close that gap.

And don’t forget she beat the Coronation Stakes winner in the Guineas.

The price differential between the favourite and Elmalka is simply far too big, and Roger Varian’s filly is bred to appreciate 1m2f. And her run-style backs that up to some degree.

The dam, trained by Varian, was a dual Group/Grade 1 winner over 1m2f and four of her siblings have won over 1m2f and further, including Benbatl.

She rates a very good each way bet at 11s , and I think she is more of an 8s poke given the make-up of the race.

By the way, Emily Upjohn and Doha were supplemented for the race at a cost of £40,000. Glad to be of service, Joe…..

4.10pm – Short list of three in 17-runner nursery

I won’t be having a bet in the nursery but I narrowed it down to three, if that helps. Probably not, but here you are anyway.

Brighton Boy was the most obvious but he is only 7s in a place and a general [11/2].  He looks very fairly treated off 82 given the way his form is shaping up and, as with a lot of these, the step up to 7f may bring about marked improvement. The wide draw in 16 is an obvious worry, though.

The two others are Original Outlaw and Defence Missile at 9s and 10s respectively.  Both are drawn low.

The former is a 300,000gns yearling who is a bred to be a lot better than an 80-rated beast and blinkers may help him (see headgear records below) and obviously his form ties in closely with Defence Missile, as Eve Johnson Houghton’s 2yo finished just a head behind him at Salisbury last time. The winner that day, a newcomer and a son of Lope De Vega and Arabian Queen, could be very useful.

4.45pm – 66/1 Toca Madera may not be a total no-hoper

It is not often you see Ryan Moore riding in a 5f handicap but the in-form Kendall Roy has tempted him in and the market is fighting shy of the in-form Irish raider, with AKBets’ [4/1] the top price.

If you are of a very forgiving nature then Toca Madera could be worth a few sheckles at a generally available 66s.

He bled last time and has only beaten one of 43 rivals in two starts this season, but presumably Brian Meehan (in decent nick) is happy with the horse, who is now very well handicapped on his 2yo form, which included placed efforts in the Richmond Stakes here and the July Stakes.

Maybe he resented the first-time tongue-tie last time too, as that is left off here. I’ll have a couple of quid myself but it clearly isn’t a strong-enough lean for a tip. It is more of an interest play, for all they are an expensive habit.

5.20pm – Newcomer Dreamy could be peachy in 7f maiden

Not my kind of race, with nine newcomers in a 13-strong field, but the vibes seem pretty strong for the Ballydoyle debutante Dreamy.  However, the market has cottoned on quickly and [13/8] is the best price around.

No thanks.

5.55pm –  8/1 Qirat may be ridden more patiently

I have had my eye on Qirat for a 7f handicap, as I don’t think he has fully got home over a mile at Ascot and Newmarket on his last two starts, albeit in a better class of handicap.

I’d be pretty sure he has a good handicap in him over 7f – the trip over which he came late to beat dual subsequent scorer Al Shabab Storm over course and distance in May, and the runner-up is now a colossal 17lb higher – but he could just get away with it here under a different ride.

He was ridden too forcefully over a mile at Newmarket last time and I reckon they will look to guide him more chilly here, perhaps by necessity given he is drawn 14, and produce him late.

This half-brother to Bluestocking will need plenty of luck then, but I think the [8/1] in the marketplace is very fair.

However, I can’t cherry-pick one price, so the generally available 7s – AKBets are this price – is good enough for a small win-only investment. Go no lower than 5s.

Remember, this horse went off [13/2] joint-favourite for the Britannia and [7/2] at Newmarket last time, and he could outclass these in this lesser 0-90 handicap, which he gets in off the ceiling mark of 92.

And when Moore stays for the last, take notice, even if it is for Juddmonte….

Good luck.

BETS

Elmalka each way at 11/1 in 3.35pm at Goodwood. Available in 11 places, including with AKBets (also 12s available in one place)

Qirat at [7/1] win-only in 5.55pm at Goodwood. Available in nine places, including with AKBets (also 8s available in one place)

BALLOTED OUT HORSES

None

SUPPLEMENTED

3.35pm – Emily Upjohn, Doha (cost £40,000)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for all Goodwood races)

Charles Hills blinkers 8-73 (since 2011)

Ralph Beckett blinkers 37-237 (2009)

David Menuisier hood 3-33 (2015)

GOING/WEATHER

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK READINGS:  7.7 as at 6.35am on Wednesday

WEATHER: Largely hot and dry until some rain arriving on Thursday afternoon (times and amounts vary from site to site)

WATERING: 5mm on bends on Tuesday evening

PACE MAPS for ITV races

1.50pm Goodwood (all have at least raced prominently in recent starts!!):  Son, Arabic Legend, Mortlake?, Midnight Gun, Aragon Castle, Per Contra, Sisyphean, Palace Green, Approval, Into Battle, Aviemore, Brioni, Blake?, Watcha Matey

2.25pm Goodwood (not a lot to go on):  Big Cyril, Billboard Star, The Strikin Viking

3.00pm Goodwood : Bellum Justum, Sayedaty Sadaty

3.35pm Goodwood: Lumiere Rock, Opera Singer

TRAINERFORM for the four ITV races (does not include Wednesday’s racing)

EXCELLENT: Ed Bethell

GOOD: Aidan O’Brien, Roger Varian, Ed Walker, William Haggas, Simon and Ed Crisford, Hugo Palmer, Ollie Sangster, Joseph O’Brien, Hughie Morrison, Andrew Balding

FAIR: Richard Hughes (though needs a winner), Richard Hannon, Charlie Johnston (borderline moderate with so many runners, though 2 winners from 13 runners on Tuesday), Ralph Beckett,, David Simcock (could do with more winners), Alice Haynes (22-1 winner on Monday), Paul and Oliver Cole (not many runners), , Hamad El Jehani, Karl Burke, Alan King, Peter Chapple-Hyam, Clive Cox, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael O’Callaghan, John and Thady Gosden, Gary and Josh Moore, P Cottier

MODERATE: Kevin Ryan (definitely strike-rate wise)