GEORGE ELEK: Lots of reasons to get on this away side at 19/10

Context is important. Last week I stuck up Leeds to nil in a game against Swansea that finished 4-3. They did win, so if you think of a ‘win to nil’ bet as a double, at least one part copped, but the clean sheet part did not age too well given Leeds conceded three goals.

Swansea’s xG didn’t even amount to 1, so we can feel a little aggrieved at the three goals that they scored, and game state played a part, with Leeds’ robust defense faltering as they had to chase the game, which they did successfully in the end.

Context is also important when analysing Derby’s 2-1 midweek home defeat at the hands of Swansea. A cursory glance at the xG there would suggest that this was one of the ‘baddest’ beats a team is likely to have all season. 3.46-0.24 are the figures according to OPTA, suggesting that this could, or maybe should, have been a comfortable home win.

I’m not sure we can look at it so simply though, with game state again playing a huge part in skewing these numbers. Swansea scored with their first two shots of the game with nicely taken goals by Vipotnik and Ronald. With 30 minutes gone, the most important 30 minutes in the game, Derby were 2-0 down and the poorer team.

Something of an onslaught then followed, with Kayden Jackson missing a couple of big chances to get Derby back in the game, before Mendez-Laing slotted home a penalty to make it 2-1 with 25 minutes still to play.

Rather than Derby maintaining that pressure though, Swansea then saw the game out relatively comfortably. The only time they maybe weren’t in control of the game was when 2-0 ahead, so still in control of the three points.

This was Derby’s second home defeat of the season, but given that they’ve already hosted four of the bottom five, and only won two of those, a bit of context might suggest that their strong home record isn’t anything to hang your hat on.

Sheffield Wednesday, on the other hand, have what initially looks like a poor record on their travels, losing four times on the road. When you account for three of these defeats coming against Sheffield United, Sunderland and high-flying Millwall, things don’t look so bad. When up against two of the poorer teams in the league in Portsmouth and most recently Hull, they have won fairly convincingly.

Danny Rohl’s side are improving week on week and were much the better side on Tuesday night at Hull despite being sent off the outsiders. They are a similar price here, with an extra day’s rest, and I think that they are value to repeat the trick by dominating this game in the moments that matter.

Selection:

1pt Sheffield Wednesday to win @ 19/10