GEORGE ELEK: Cardiff the pick in what could be a scrappy South Wales Derby

How important can an August Championship fixture be?

Very, by the looks of this South Wales Derby between Swansea City and Cardiff City fans, especially if you speak to Sunday’s visitors.

Any game between these two is of the utmost importance due to the ferocity with which the two clubs despise each other. That is the case with many derbies across the world, but few boast as poor a recent record as the Bluebirds do when heading to the Swans.

They’ve lost five of the last six of these trips, winning 1-0 in 2021, but in an empty stadium due to the COVID restrictions. This means Cardiff fans have not witnessed their team win behind enemy lines since February 2011, then thanks to a late goal from now Wales boss Craig Bellamy.

But there is more at stake here for Cardiff than bragging rights frustration. A season that started with such optimism, after what looked like a promising summer of recruitment, has got off the worst possible start. They’ve conceded seven goals in two games against Sunderland and Burnley while not finding the back of the net themselves.

Last season the rumours that manager Erol Bulut was considering his position were met with horror from the Cardiff faithful, but a defeat here and it could be them calling for his head.

If we look into the underlying numbers from the two Cardiff defeats, things don’t look so bad. They may have conceded five goals last time out against Burnley, but these came from just nine shots and 0.81 xG as per OPTA.

One was from a ridiculous goalkeeper error, with Ethan Horvath letting a pass-back sneak under his studs and into the back of the next. The rest was just a case of quality Burnley players scoring the kind of goals that you hold your hands up to, just ideally not four in one game.

They also weren’t necessarily the worst team on opening day against Sunderland, missing chances 1-0 to level it before Jobe Bellingham and Jack Clarke, two class players destined for the Premier League, combined to make the game safe.

Cardiff could have put in two identical performances, had the rub of the green here and there and now sit on two points from two draws and nobody would bat an eyelid. Instead we are on a train to Swansea which terminates at Panic Stations.

The home team will come into this buoyant having seen off a managerless Preston 3-0 on Saturday, and will smell blood given Cardiff’s stuttering start. Luke Williams endeared himself to the Swansea fans with a 2-0 win in this fixture in March and plenty fancy them to repeat the trick here, hence their odds-on price at 10/11 with AK Bets.

I’m willing to take on the bare form of both leading into this and back Cardiff’s luck to change. They’re due some at both ends, and might be able to capitalise on an environment at Swansea that looks ripe for a bit of complacency, both in terms of their starts to the season and in this fixture specifically.

With the scrappy nature of these types of games alongside Bulut’s relatively defensive nature, the draw also looks a big runner. Bizarrely there has only been one in the last 16 of these games, but that’s the kind of trend I’m happy to take on rather than place any faith in it.

AK Bets go standout 12/1 on the no goalscorer here which looks a fair price, and I’ll also be backing the 10/11 Cardiff or Draw double chance as they look to get their first points on the board and kick-start their season.

2pt Cardiff or Draw @ 10/11

0.5pt No Goalscorer @ 12/1