TONY CALVIN: ALL seven races at Ascot on Saturday put under the microscope

ASCOT DETAILS (updated 8.24am on Thursday)

GOING – Round course: Good;  Straight course: Good

GOING STICK: Round course: 7.4 (was 7.0 on Monday); Straight course: 7.9 (was 7.8 on Monday)

Some drainage work, sand slitting was completed on the round course from approx the 1m 4F start to the 4F marker in September.

Stalls: Straight Course: Far side;  Round Course: Inside

Soil Moisture: 32%. Readings taken at 8am Thursday. The next readings will be taken on Saturday morning

Thursday morning course update: Dry through the past 24 hours to 8am Thursday morning. 0.6mm recorded over the past 7 days. The forecast through to racing on Saturday is for largely fine dry weather, remaining cloudy. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to: www.ascot.com/thegoing

Weather: Dry, overcast and 15-16 degrees all week, with odd light shower

HOW THE RACES HAVE CHANGED NUMBERS-WISE – AND HOW THEY LOOK NOW

12.55pm – This is now the Long Distance Cup

The first and second races on Saturday have now been switched due to World Pool considerations, I understand.

There were 16 in this race on Monday morning but we are down to six (Sunway confirmed at 11.57am), with five confirmations and Stay True supplemented for 37.5k.

It is obviously a very disappointing turn-out for a 500k race – the sixth would be assured of £7,171.88 – but we simply don’t have a lot of good stayers, and certainly not any depth in the division.

Trawlerman beat Kyprios in this race in 2023, and was third in the renewals either side of that, and he is clearly the top dog in here and priced accordingly at [1/2] , with the early [8/13] and [4/7] have been taken.

We know he has the beating of stablemate Sweet William all ends up and that the admirable Al Qareem is better at shorter trips, so the supplemented 3yo Stay True, best at 4s and set to have just his fifth outing, at least gives him a fresh challenge rather than bashing up the older brigade.

He didn’t look like an obvious two-miler when third in the St Leger though.

However, the 37.5k supplement was a no-brainer on mathematical (or betting) grounds alone, with 114 bags on offer for second, 57 for third, 28 for fourth and 14 for fifth.

His stablemate Saratoga was beaten 3 ½ lengths off a mark of 93 at Naas on Sunday.

Both of the O’Brien pair are in the Horses In Training sales on October 28 (along with Champion Stakes entry Swagman), for what it is worth.

And the only other runner, Sunway, who ran a lot better than I thought he would when fourth in the Cadran, is reasonably hard to warm to here as well, hence his [33/1] price tag.

This could well be another Trawlerman-Sweet William 1-2, to follow in the footsteps of their Lonsdale Cup efforts in August, though Sweet William did finish ahead of his shorter-priced, yard-buddy in this race on soft ground last season.

AKBets go [1/2] Trawlerman and I’m not sure I’d be overly-keen on laying that, or indeed Sweet William, very polished in the Doncaster Cup last time, at 7s each way, two places.

1.30pm – This is now the 2yo race

This wasn’t an early-closer and we have 19 entries for the new 2yo 6f conditions race on the card.

All are guaranteed a run if they want it, with a maximum field of 20.

No betting has surfaced for this 250k pot yet (it has by the time you are reading this) but it’s a very decent field considering the amount of juvenile contests we have had in the last fortnight or so.

We have the Mill Reef winner Words Of Truth in here (unpenalised for that Group 2 win), last week’s Cornwallis runner-up Brussels and Redcar 2yo trophy winner Ardisia, good Donny third Sir Albert, as well as last weekend’s winners Division and First Approach, and other progressive types.

The first prices I have just seen make Words Of Truth the evens favourite, with Brussels 4s and Division 6s, and 10s bar.

Given the latter pair are among six who would have raced within 10 days if running on Saturday, I’d say a late decision will be made on their participation after their midweek work.

Words Of Truth was briefly on offer at [7/4] – now evens is best again on Tuesday morning – and a whole other variety of prices are now on offer, but you can easily sit this race out at the moment.

I have a feeling I will be saying that a lot in this column.

Very good racing in prospect; questionable ante-post betting material.

2.05pm – Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes

There were 30 in this race on Monday and we are down to 21, with Rayevka and Rosy Affair supplemented for 37.5k.

There is a maximum of 20 here.

As ever, these Group 1 sprints are hard to call, even when you have all the information to hand, not least the draw and pace map – and maybe better prices and place terms come the day – so it is not a race I’d be steaming into at the moment.

AKBets make Lazzat their [7/2] favourite, and they go top price about the next two in the market, with 5s and 7s on offer about Big Mojo and Montassib respectively.

Wait on Tony, but 12/1 Flora looks solid enough

Last year’s narrow third, Flora Of Bermuda, at 12s, and 33s chance Ten Bob Tony would interest me if lining up.

This would be just the latter’s third start over this 6f, but he ran a cracker when third in the Foret on Arc weekend and a strongly-run race over this trip may well just suit.

I wouldn’t lay the available 33s about him, but trainer Ed Walker sounded lukewarm about running him here in his Weekender column last week.

It’s definitely a wait-and-see job with him.

Inisherin is another credible contender at this stage at 16s and the general 14s. He ran well against the draw bias in the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock last time and the 2024 Commonwealth Cup winner over course and distance is a match for all of these at his best, maybe with the exception of the Jubilee Stakes version of Lazzat.

All firms are currently betting to 1/5 1,2,3.

As at 6pm, the 12s about Flora Of Bermuda has gone and she is 10s best.

2.45pm – Group 1 Fillies And Mares

There were 24 in this race on Monday and we are down to 13, with One Look supplemented for 37.5k.

The ground at Ascot won’t be getting much quicker than good at this time of the year – the current forecast this week tells us as much – so you’d hope the field for this race will stand up, as a result.

And, if that is the case, I reckon we will be looking at the same, or bigger, prices come late Thursday morning/afternoon than are currently available.

Maybe form choice Kalpana could harden up a touch from 4s – and that is on the big side, I admit – but I don’t see any major shorteners in here, outside of her.

Kalpana is now best at [10/3] on Wednesday morning, and a general 3s.

Headgear for Wemightakedlongway? And will she be ridden more aggressively again?

At the moment, maybe Wemightakedlongway at the general 12s (including with AKBets) could hold the most appeal, though I have no idea if she is an intended runner.

A strong runner-up to Minnie Hauk in the Irish Oaks, she looked very awkward – veering this way and that up the straight – when fourth in the Prix de l’Opera last time, a short neck behind the supplemented One Look, and I wonder whether they will stick some headgear on her if she lines up here.

It could straighten her out, in both senses, and make her a strong contender in this, for all it looks a competitive and deep race.

If they do put headgear on, then they should look to make the running on her, as she has done in the past. There is little other pace in here outside of perhaps Ballet Slippers and Island Hopping, but I am sure Son could have a word with Father.

3.25pm – Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes

There were 27 in this race on Monday and we are down to 17, with Marvelman supplemented for 70k.

The pleasing element of Ascot’s Group 1s on Saturday are not only how deep the fields are – only Delacroix and The Lion In Winter are doubly-entered in the top-tier contests – but how some are peppered with high-class animals.

Field Of Gold is obviously one such and he trades at a general [6/4], including with AKBets, to get his season back on track after his Sussex Stakes disappointment last time.

I don’t think I fully (or even half) buy into the fact that he returned home lame on his left hind had much to do with that defeat – it was obviously a strangely-run race – but if he rocks up in the same form as his St James’s Palace Stakes success here then this lot will be looking at his disappearing backside in the final furlong.

But [6/4] is hardly punting material.

This looks another wait-and-see job, with Fallen Angel at 8s an obvious each-way contender as (or if) she goes for a fourth consecutive Group 1 win. And she was at her most impressive yet when strolling home in the Sun Chariot last time.

But she is currently pretty weak in an admittedly exceptionally illiquid exchange market (probably explains why she has drifted to 10s fixed-odds).

No way I’d lay Alakazi at 33s

Let’s see what Thursday at 10am brings, shall we, but I was taken by Alakazi’s Leopardstown win last time the more I watched it, for all it was a modest enough Group 2.

He is on my punting radar (horrible phrase, granted) and he is a probable shortener from 33s from an each-way perspective.

Like Fox Legacy, he is a coming force arriving here at the peak of his powers, with perhaps further heights to be scaled.

I have no idea if he is an intended runner (though connections were talking about Ascot after his win last time) but I’d not be laying 33s or 25s.

I may try to have an each-way nibble at 33s if I can get it.

In fact, I just have.

£6.25ew.

And another tenner or so EW elsewhere.

I don’t know why I bothered tbh.

The 33s has become 20s ffs; the power of 15 notes….

4.05pm – Group 1 Champion Stakes

There were 25 in this race on Monday and we are down to 15. Devil’s Advocate and First Look have been supplemented for 75k.

Now, this is a potential cracker, with the possibility of Ombudsman (top at 7/4 with AKBets) versus Delacroix versus Calandagan versus Almaqam versus Economics – plus a few other dangerous floaters, and Fox Legacy is one such at a general 25s.

Ombudsman has now drifted to 2s on Wednesday morning.

Do not underestimate Fox Legacy at 25s

Fox Legacy obviously lacks the proven Group 1 pedigree of the above but his career trajectory means it is not a fanciful notion that he could be competitive here.

He was beaten off a mark of 77 little over a year ago when trained by Sir Michael Stoute but he has sprouted wings this season, his only defeat in four coming when winning his group when sixth over an inadequate mile in the Hunt Cup.

And he was ridiculously impressive when hammering 100+-rated horses at Goodwood in a decent time on his most recent start.

The handicapper upped him 15lb for that success (to a mark of 116), and anything approaching similar progression here makes him a place contender, and something more perhaps.

Powder dry for now, for me anyway, but let’s see what the price and place terms bring us at the weekend.

4.40pm – 1m Balmoral Handicap

There were 78 in this race on Monday and we are down to 47.  Holloway Boy is now top weight on 9st 12lb.

There is a maximum field of 20 here, so plenty are set to be disappointed/balloted out.

All firms are currently betting 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4.

Common sense suggests each-way backers should wait – unless a price demands instant attention.

The general 20s chance Back In Black is highly unlikely to get in, being number 34 in the list – I suspect a few people would want to be all over him here if he does scrape in – but the horse who beat him snugly enough at Goodwood on Sunday, Cerulean Bay, has to be of interest in here given the flying form he is in of late.

If he comes here (the quick turnaround is an obvious worry but he is a hardy horse who takes his racing well) then the 25s in the marketplace will perhaps be a distant memory.

In fact, it was at 6.21pm on Monday.

At the top of the market, I’d side with Shout at 8 and 7s. He went up 9lb for his course and distance win last time but he deserved to.

In summary though, this is not a race I am playing in at the moment.

Have I said that before?

WHO HAS BEEN SUPPLEMENTED?

1.30pm:  Stay True

2.05pm: Rayevka, Rosy Affair

2.45pm: One Look

3.25pm: Marvelman

4.05pm: Devil’s Advocate, First Look

DOUBLE ENTRIES

12.55pm (now Long Distance Cup): NONE

1.30pm (now 2yo race): NONE (Kansas is an early closer at Dundalk on Oct 24)

2.05pm: NONE

2.45pm: NONE

3.25pm: Delacroix, The Lion In Winter

4.05pm: Delacroix, The Lion In Winter

4.40pm: Epictetus, Duke’s Command, Leadman ran on Tuesday (another ill-judged ride perhaps) , Dapper Guest