TONY CALVIN: ST LEGER PREVIEW – and the rest of the ITV races are now live

1.15pm Doncaster – Holding fire before backing Wild Nature

Wild Nature is an interesting enough proposition at the general 20s, with bigger out there, though a small-stakes one at that given he has been off since May 2 and was sold out of Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin yard for 65,000 guineas in July.

Presumably all was well with him physically as he passed the vet and was sold there, though it has to be said he was a big drifter and finished last of eight when we last saw him and the handicapper hasn’t even dropped him 1lb for the run or the absence.

But new trainer Ed Bethell is canny enough with switchers and one of the stable’s relatively longstanding owners (well since 2022, it seems), Peter Jeffers, has bought into the project, so I am not taking the move itself as a negative at all.

And Bethell has something to work with if he can rekindle the fire in the horse, as three subsequent winners (including two next time out) followed him home when he won at Kempton on his penultimate start in December, so a 5lb rise for that is workable.

He is a low-mileage son on Kingman, one of the two pace angles in here, and he could be worth a minimum-stakes, win-only dart, for all he has obvious blow-out potential.

He is 25s in a place but he may well drift by the looks of things, so I am going to hold off for now. I’ll back him though, if just for a score or so, hopefully at 33s+.

I can see why some will be keeping Galeron onside here, as he ran okay at Sandown last time and got dropped 2lb for it. He has run well on both starts at this track, and he is now 7lb lower than a 2-length 5^th in the Lincoln here in March.

I may have a saver on him but of course the in-form favourite Treble Tee has to be feared, though he is a general 2s now. That looks far too short to me.

Great Chieftain is a NR as at 8.51am (going).

1.50pm Doncaster – Front two in the market maybe taking too much out of the market now

This 7f Group 2 Champagne Stakes predictably cut up at the overnight stage, given that eight of the 10 five-day entries had options elsewhere this week.

The two that didn’t, Gewan and Oxagon, have duly rocked up, now being priced up at [7/4] and [6/4] respectively, having been cut from a touch bigger yesterday morning.

You suspect that they may fight this out, but it probably wouldn’t be wise to be over-bullish at the odds, given Cape Orator was very good in France last time, Cape Ashizuri did it nicely on his debut at Ayr, and the maiden Puerto Rico is mildly progressive and wasn’t disgraced in Group 1 company last time (the 10s was taken about him this morning).

As you will have guessed, this holds very little betting appeal for me, so good luck whichever way you are swinging.

If you fancy any if the outsiders, then you are getting plenty of bang for your buck now, with Oxagon and Gewan shortening up, far too much perhaps.

2.05pm Chester – Hamish looks set to taken out because of the ground

Or maybe not.

I imagine we could be looking at the [5/6] favourite Hamish coming out because the ground is too quick at Chester – they got 2.5mm overnight but that perhaps isn’t enough for the old boy (Maureen Haggas suggested as much on Friday, but maybe they will chance it given the prize money and opposition)- and that would really open up this Listed contest, which has already seen Sir Dinadan pulled out due to the going as at 7.55am.

I won’t be getting involved, Hamish or no Hamish, but Mount Atlas was given a rather curious ride from the front when heavily backed at York last time, and I imagine we will see him taking a lead here.

He could bounce back.

2.25pm Doncaster – Air Force One could fly in the blinkers

Regular readers will know maximum-field sprint handicaps – 22 runners, spread all across the track, with no going stick readings to guide us (that really has been poor from Donny this week) – generally hold zero appeal to me (I was going to say about as much appeal as a nun in a knocking shop, but I thought better of it…), but I have a guilty secret here.

I actually think the favourite Air Force One is quite an attractive each-way play at a general 5s, including with AK Bets (the 6s went this morning, unfortunately).

Geoff Oldroyd has had a brilliant season, as has this horse, and the first-time blinkers could see him land this big pot.

I suspect he will go up 2-3lb from his current mark of 87 after a neck second to Alzahir at York on Sunday, the pair clear 2 ¼ lengths clear of the third – he is yet to be re-assessed – and I also reckon the headgear will bring about improvement, for all it is an unknown.

He certainly strikes as if something to concentrate his mind will help, and this is a rare occasion when 5s+ in a full field represents a punt, with the places a handy back-up.

Trainer Geoff Oldroyd has had a great season and his record with first-time blinkers is impressive.

He is 5 from 18, which has yielded a 17 points profit to level stakes (see the improved headgear stats below).

2.40pm Chester –  Nothing doing for me here

It’s a really good prize, a 100k 2m handicap, but I have no betting opinion here – the 153-rated hurdler Ndaawi may well win off 89, but he is eye-wateringly short at [6/4] now – so I am happy to move on.

3pm Doncaster – Opposable favourite (at the price), and maybe East Hampton is the one to down him

Against the favourite

I do have one here, though.

I rarely, if ever, back odds-on in horse racing but I don’t mind laying one if I think the price is too short (effectively backing odds-on I know) and that is what I have done here with Shadow Of Light. You can’t get him in the can at [6/4] unfortunately – that’s his top fixed-odds price – but not too much bigger, thankfully.

It’s just a personal position which I thought I’d share, so feel free to disregard.

I certainly haven’t gone mad on the stakes front but I’m happy to have the field running for me at around 8-13 – it is my position of the day – as I think I have three or four realistic players with me; sure, Shadow Of Light is the form horse on his Guineas third but he is eminently beatable on his last two starts.

The most obvious ones in my camp are Ten Bob Tony and Marvelman but Room Service (two from two here) and King’s Gamble could be contenders in their respective initial headgear, and East Hampton is overpriced on his second to Diego Velazquez (who went on to take the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois next time) at the Curragh in July.

I’ll forgive him a below-par performance in a steadily-run, small field at Cork last time.

This race promises to be strongly-run, with Quinault expected to blast again, and the likes of Marvelman, Audience and Devil’s Point not far behind, and East Hampton can travel well off the pace when on his game and this test could suit.

It’s a very small sample obviously, and probably not remotely relevant, but I see trainer David Marnane, who has had a couple of recent winners, is two from three at the track.

He is now 22s and likely to get bigger, shortly. Too big, that.

3.40pm Doncaster – Will 12/1 Furthur his Classic claims here? Definitely maybe

It is quite something to note that Scandinavia was available at 16s immediately after his Bahrain Trophy romp – and it stayed there for a good while, too (it helped that those on Racing TV, on track and in the studio, completely missed that the price was available and bizarrely concentrated on another firm just going 8s) – and those who were on the ball, and had access to the price (yes I know), are now sitting pretty on a best-priced [15/8] poke.

In the absence of Ryan Moore, I bet his ante-post backers are delighted to have the services of Tom Marquand and that combo is quite clearly the one to beat after going on to make the most of the stone age (it probably is a touch archaic, in truth) allowance to beat Illinois in the Goodwood Cup.

He is clearly the one to conquer, and his general fixed-odds price is [6/4] and [13/8].

There will be those who think a dual Derby winner, with perhaps excuses for his run last time out in the Voltigeur, should be the favourite over him, and if that is the case they can get [11/4] about Lambourn. The 3s has just gone.

This is exactly the kind of race where you can expect AKBets to trade aggressively in the morning – and Scandinavia is now best at [11/4] with AKBets.

Lambourn is rated 3lb superior to his stablemate Scandinavia on the back of that Epsom win but he has clearly not run to that level in bagging another Classic at the Curragh, and that limp-biscuit fifth in the Voltigeur last time.

Granted, connections hinted strongly that he would come on appreciably for the York run but he was still sent off [4/5] there – and at a Betfair SP of 1.81 – and a 3-length fifth of seven was decidedly underwhelming.

It could be that he was flattered by the run of the race at Epsom, and even the [11/4] doesn’t tempt me in.

Given that he finished 1 ¾ length in front of him at York, then the seeming yard third-string Stay True  – the late market will be fascinating here, and I would not like to second-guess it, with one hand on three tillers – is perhaps a better betting attraction at 8s.

On another day the stewards could have got out the big regulatory stick when he was given a pretty easy time of it  in finishing a short-head second to stablemate Puppet Master in the Lingfield Derby Trial in May – racing really doesn’t do itself any favours on occasions – and he was having his first start for 102 days at York last month.

Will this be one last Classic hurrah for his sire Galileo? Maybe, but I’d be concerned about his stamina for the job in hand myself.

There are no such concerns for the favourite, or with the Queens Vase 1-2 of Carmers (a strong-finishing length second in the Voltigeur) and Furthur (well backed when beating older horses in the Geoffrey Freer last time) and the same is true of Rahieeb (the most likely “surprise” winner) and the 101-rated Melrose winner Tarriance at a lower level.

Furthur now 22s with AKBets

It could be that that Scandinavia will power these into submission but I quite liked the way Furthur, a length behind Carmers at Royal Ascot, beat the more experienced older brigade at Newbury last time – the paddock spoofers loved him there with his shiny black coat – and he’d be my lean, if pushed (heavily), here at a general 12s, and maybe with bigger to come looking at the overall market.

You may get 14s on Saturday.

In fact, he is now 22s with AKBets.

But have I had a bet after we have known the final field on Thursday morning?

Na.

Leopardstown

I will now have a look at Leopardstown (well after I have watched New Zealand v South Africa, anyway) and come back if I see any bets.

I’ve had a look and I am not betting myself, so I am not recommending you do.

Have a good one.

BEST BET

Air Force One at 5s each way in 2.25pm Doncaster (bigger out there if you have certain accounts)

SATURDAY DETAILS – updated on Saturday morning

DONCASTER

GOING – Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.3, Saturday 7.30am

Rails: Fresh line on round, innermost line.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

Saturday morning course update: 0.8mm yesterday afternoon 1.6mm this morning Saturday – dry this morning with sunny spells, chance of showers early afternoon. Temps 18C Southerly winds

Weather:  light showers, if anything, now

CHESTER

GOING: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.9, Saturday 7am

Rails: Rail will be on the innermost line. Distances as measured.

Stalls: 1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside

Saturday morning course update: 2.5mm rain overnight. 13.2mm rain over the last 7 days. Forecast to be dry and bright today with highs of 16’C and a 16mph South Westerly breeze.

Weather: light showers, if anything

LEOPARDSTOWN

13 September – Following a breezy day & 1mm of rain, Leopardstown is now yielding. Mainly dry & breezy with possibility of occasional showers. Tap here for a video with Clerk of the Course, Lorcan Wyer.

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back)

2.25pm Doncaster: Duran, Reigning Profit,, Blind Beggar Shallow, Existent

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (more detailed than usual, thanks to Andy Richmond/Proform)

Robert Cowell cheekpieces; 12-160, 7.5%, -23pts; Jakajaro, 2.25pm Doncaster

Robert Cowell visor; 12-215, 6.05%, -124pts; Seven Questions, 2.25pm Doncaster

Geoff Oldroyd blinkers; 5-18, 27.78%, +17pts; Air Force One, 2.25pm Doncaster

Ralph Beckett blinkers; 41-321, 12.77% ,+15pts; King’s Gamble, 3pm Doncaster

Kevin Ryan  cheekpieces;  48-431, 11.1%, -45pts; Room Service, 3pm Doncaster

Johnny Murtagh hood;  2-45, 4.44%, -36pts; Reyenzi, 3.50pm Leopardstown

Aidan O’Brien; cheekpieces; 44-258, 17.05%, -115pts;  4,25pm Leopardstown

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; draws attached)

1.15pm Doncaster:  Wild Nature (drawn 6), Urban Sprawl (1)

1.50pm Doncaster:  Cape Orator (1), Oxagon (4), Puerto Rico (3)

2.05pm Chester:  Champagne Prince (3), Grey Cuban (1)  Mount Atlas? (6) – Sir Dinadan a NR as at 7.55am (going)

2.25pm Doncaster: Roman Dragon (6), Jordan Electrics (20), Run Boy Run (8), Emperor Spirit (14), Eternal Sunshine (11) – We Never Stop is a NR (7.40am; temperature)

2.40pm Chester: Sheradann (12), Tribal Star (5)

3pm Doncaster: Audience (3), Devil’s Point (4), Quinault (6), Marvelman (2)

3.40pm Doncaster: Furthur (6), Lambourn (1), Rahiebb (2)

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: John and Thady Gosden, Tim Easterby (an impressive six winners on Tuesday, and another  two on Friday), David Simcock (has won with four of his last eight runners), Simon and Ed Crisford, Roger Varian (in great nick), Paddy Twomey, Robert Cowell, Roger Teal (another winner on Friday), Richard Spencer, Stuart Williams, James Tate (very good – flying in fact with another 7-2 winner on Thursday), William Haggas, Kevin Philippart De Foy. Michael Bell

Fair:   Kevin Ryan, Hugo Palmer, Ed Walker, David O’Meara, Ralph Beckett,  Ian Williams, Andrew Balding, David Menuisier (14-1 winner on Friday) , Jim Goldie, Jane Chapple-Hyam (6-1 winner on Friday), James Owen, Nigel Tinkler, Ed Bethell, William Knight, Clive Cox, David Marnane,  George Scott, Gordon Elliott, Adrian McGuinness, Charlie Johnston, Charles Hills

Moderate:  Aidan O’Brien (certainly moderate for him, though of course plenty are running well in defeat), Brian Ellison (4-5 winner on Friday), Kevin Frost, John and Sean Quinn (though, two good recent seconds and first winner for 3 weeks on Thursday),  Oliver Cole, Harry Eustace (he will have been relieved to have had a 7-2 winner at Epsom on Thursday), Michael Keady

Don’t know: Charalambous/Clutterbuck, Geoff Oldroyd (very few runners but excellent all season an a winner on Thursday, so I’d probably say good), Luke Dace, Shaun Lycett