By Tony Calvin - 10 September 2026
This 7f 2yo Listed Flying Scotsman has cut up a lot at the overnight stage – there were 23 in this at the five-day stage, and we are now down to just nine – but it looks a very decent race for the grade.
The early 6/4 favourite Nabati sets the form standard on his narrow Newbury second to subsequent scorer Arapaho Gold – and he himself has won since at Newmarket – but there are plenty of others here snapping at his heels.
The once-raced unbeaten pair of Forbidden Fire and Rock Montreal are the obvious ones, at 7/2 and 11/4 respectively.
The latter’s closing sectionals impressed when he won on his debut at Yarmouth – like Nabati, he is owned by Godolphin but trained by Roger Varian – and he was favourite for the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown last month until he was withdrawn because of the softening ground.
Forbidden Fire, from a stellar family, made a fair few ripples when winning by a wide margin at Salisbury on her debut – the runner-up runs in the 1.50pm at Doncaster on Thursday – and, indeed, Andrew Balding was talking about putting her in the Cheveley Park Stakes immediately after that success.
He also mentioned she maybe not ready for a big field, so the race cutting up is presumably a positive. There is a lot to like about her, clearly.
But this may not be a three-way go at all – Varzi has to be a factor and early prices about him look plenty big enough to me (still there at 12.37pm) – and it’s a race I can easily let pass me by without a bet at the moment.
I’ll have another look on Thursday, though.
I know Varzi got an easy lead and never looked back at Pontefract in a weak enough race, but I was impressed all the same and the time was decent.
Varzi would be my idea of the best bet, each way, at 18s as of 7.34am on Friday, but it’s a hollow assessment as I haven’t had a bet and probably won’t.
In fact, I haven’t.
Masaban and Shadow Run, two of the reserves, are NRs. As is Clatford.
So it looks like another reserve, Espona Bay, one of the ARC-owned horses, gets a run.
It’s all for a good cause/causes, but I think we can deal with the Leger Legends (which obviously should be prosecuted under the trade descriptions act…) quickly enough.
As at 11.22am on Wednesday, I am not sure when the jockeys are announced for the 13 runners (there are three reserves and plenty were balloted out – see below) but it doesn’t really matter who is on board, does it?
It is a 0-70 1m Classified race with retired jockeys on board – though not long in the case of Joe Fanning, who rides Wield, curiously priced up at 17/2 by all but one firm (surely no-one has been copying here) – so if you are moved to have a bet, seek help…
I did notice the ARC-owned Amphitheatre Racing Limited have three of their horses in here, Scott Dixon’s Bella Bisbeee and Clatford, and reserve Espona Bay, so they have more skin in this game.
Unsurprisingly, no-one had priced this up as at 12.38pm on Wednesday.
But a fair few had by 2.30pm, with Nyman a narrow 5s favourite, with another four horses priced between 11/2 and 13/2.
A guess-up with modest horses.
I won’t be revisiting this race on Thursday but good luck to all concerned.
Pershaada is a NR (lame).
Carry The Flag’s 150/1 second in the Prix Morny last time was nearly one in the eye for anti-pacemakers like myself, and it was only an outrageous finishing burst from the exceptional Senorita Bonita in the closing stages that stopped him from recording an unlikely Group 1 success.
Timeform called the ground good there (officially it was soft), by the way.
Bookmakers have priced him up as though that was a fluke, with early quotes as big as 8s and 15/2, and that seemed overly-dismissive to me so I had a little each-way bet at 15/2.
I haven’t gone mad by any means (my sole fixed-odds account doesn’t let me even if I wanted to…) but to have him as the fifth favourite here seemed plain wrong.
Yes, it is competitive enough but that is nothing scary in here against him.
Certainly, no Senorita Bonita.
Granted, his Irish mark of 112 would seem a gross over-reaction to me but the Deauville time was very good and the step back down to 5f (he is two from four over it, and he went off the 5/2 favourite when disappointing in the Norfolk) will surely suit this horse, who clearly has blazing early speed.
I am going to take the French run last time at face value and mark it down as a much-improved effort, even if that was his eighth start.
I would certainly like to see Aidan O’Brien’s horses in a lot better form though, even if we are only talking in the past week or so.
You can clearly make a case for plenty in here but I thought El Floridita could outrun his 50/1 odds in a first-time visor (see trainer’s stats with this headgear angle below).
If the headgear makes him more tractable – he is often too keen for his own good, but he actually stuck on pretty well on the possibly unfavoured near side at York last time – then there is further improvement in this 150/1 Norfolk Stakes runner-up.
They’ll need to be for him even to get competitive here, as his current mark of 96 is an accurate reflection of his form to date, but he is no forlorn hope for a stable that won this race with a 40s poke in 2020.
I’ve had a little tickle at 50s each way.
Queenstown (still in the Irish St Leger on Sunday, which is set to cut up) is a huge NR as at 7.57pm (not eaten up), meaning the then 11/8 favourite not only triggers a big Rule 4 but changes the each-way terms of the race and takes out the sole pace angle.
A pretty weak renewal of the 2m2f Group 2 Howard Wright Doncaster Cup and I bet the course were very relieved to see Caballo De Mar and Queenstown end up in here.
The former had a French option but they are coming here for the highly winnable 165k pot, while Queenstown could have run in the Irish St Leger on Sunday.
It says a lot that Caballo De Mar is a general 6/4 chance (7/4 in a place) after running so poorly on his last two starts. He also carries a 5lb penalty and wears a first-time tongue-tie and initial blinkers in attempt to perk and straighten him up.
Too many unknowns at the price, even in such a disappointing turn-out.
Surely, Queenstown should be favourite – and, to be fair, he nearly is at a general 2s (one mob go 85/40).
He has a 5lb pull for the 3 lengths he was beaten by his main market rival in the Prix Cadran last season and he comes here in much better form than the George Scott dual Group 1-winning stayer after a winning return on his belated reappearance.
After the Cadran run, he ran a cracker when second to Arrow Eagle in the Prix Royal-Oak and he probably ran up to that level when winning the Irish St Leger Trial by 4 1/2 lengths at the Curragh last month.
And he looks set to get an uncontested lead here.
My only worry is that long absence before his return as, reading between the lines, it sounded like a serious injury. Is there a chance he could regress here?
I think there is.
Even so, he is now the clear favourite at 13/8, with Caballo De Mar 9/4, as at 1.57pm on Thursday.
I imagine some bookmakers could look to get the front two in the can and hope for a result, and they may be looking for the unlikely saviour combination of Emmet Mullins/Paul Byrne for the mini-upset with his 13/2 chance Winday, fresh from his 1m4f Ffos Las maiden win….
As unconventional as ever from Emmet then, but not impossible with a 3yo – he has youth on his side, as the next oldest in here is five and he gets 11lb from the older males as a result – with so little mileage on the clock.
Then again, he is only rated 97 at the moment and that mark is possibly a touch inflated.
But of course it is possible.
I may have at look a couple of others each-way close to the off if the dead-eight holds, possibly chief among them 25s poke Ascending and 14s chance Beylerbeyi, fourth and fifth in the Ebor from miles off the pace, but I’ll be back with those thoughts tomorrow/Friday.
This went live at 3.03pm on Wednesday.
I have decided to sit this one, even though I can see the each-way case for the Ebor horses.
I just worry whether they would have the Cesarewitch in mind for Beylerbeyi once again, and are mindful of not ruining his handicap mark here.
Then again, the 14s each way is fair – dead-eight alert, granted – and I do sense an upset here.
I may lay the front two and have the field running for me, with limited risk and plenty of potential reward.
See below.
A tricky 0-100 1m4f fillies’ handicap to finish off the ITV coverage – well, it is effectively a 70-91.
It lacks a bit of class then but there are several progressive types in here, most obviously Silver Lake, who got up close home to land the hat-trick over an extended 1m2f at York last time.
The step up to 1m4f could well suit but a 6lb rise for that win was pretty severe and, hailing from the William Haggas yard, she was never going to be missed at a top-priced 2s (she is actually as short as 13/8).
Not for me at the current price.
In truth, this is not a race that got my punting juices going on first inspection, though Golden Muse would probably get my current vote at 9s across the board. Two from two over the 1m4f trip, and a decent third over 1m2f here in between, she hails from a stable having a great season, and whose recent form is just as impressive.
That went live at 3.31pm on Wednesday.
I have backed Golden Muse very small at 17/2 each way.
A very quiet punting day for me though – and I imagine a fair few others, too.
GOING : Good, good to soft in places
GOING STICK : 6.0, Friday 7.45am
Watering: We have not watered the track since the 18th August – this was to aid recovery from our last meeting on the 15th August
Weather (8.08am Friday): Dry Friday; sunny spells 20 degrees
1.50pm Doncaster: Age of Baroque, A La Noche, Aspull, Enpassant, Sanafi Zabeel, Shaw Park, Timely Affair, Up The Jazz, Berkshire Boom, Forever Endless, Pilgrim’s Progress, Slack Bob
Nigel Tinkler visor; El Floridita, 2.25pm; 10-118 (8%) +32.38pts at SP
George Scott blinkers; Caballo De Mar; 3pm; 6-59 (10%) -17.50pts at SP
1.15pm Doncaster: Varzi (drawn 3), Vega King (2)
1.50pm Doncaster (Leger Legends so maybe of little use): Bella Bisbee (5), Berry Clever (6), Wield (3), Espona Bay – Masaban, Clatford and Shadow Run are NRs
2.25pm Doncaster: Agamemnon (9), Carry The Flag (12), Fast Track (11) – Pershaada is a NR (lame)
3pm Doncaster: No obvious pace –Queenstown a NR
3.35pm Doncaster: Nochebuena (2), Golden Muse (10)
Good: Karl Burke, Charlie Appleby (very good), Marco Botti, William Haggas, Andrew Balding, Emmet Mullins (very small sample), James Fanshawe (more winners on Wednesday and Thursday), Ralph Beckett, Hamad Al Jehani, Amy Murphy, Kevin Philippart De Foy
Fair: Richard Hughes, Richard Hannon (improving a touch from a very poor place but fair/moderate), Rod Millman , Aidan O’Brien, Roger Varian, David O’Meara, Jennie Candlish (10-11 Bangor winner on Tuesday and Sedgefield winner on Wednesday), George Scott, Henry De Bromhead (fair/good), Oliver Cole, Roger Fell (fair-good), Michael Herrington (fair/good), Chris Dwyer, Thomas Faulkner, Kevin and Lauren Frost (another winner at 14s on Wednesday), Ed Bethell
Moderate: Simon and Ed Crisford (8-11 winner on Tuesday and 1-6 and 6-5 winners on Wednesday), Hugo Palmer, Ian Williams (22-1 winner on Thursday), David Loughnane, Scott Dixon, Adam Kirby, James Owen, Nigel Tinkler, Kevin Thomas Coleman, Brian Ellison, Joseph Parr
Don’t know: T J Kent, Alan Brown, Geoff Oldroyd
1.15pm – Tasty enough race – Varzi at 18s makes most appeal but it is…
1.30pm Chester – This is Dubai Honour’s to lose, but the price tells you that…
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