TONY CALVIN: DETAILED look at all eight today’s races on ITV – dutching two in St Leger at prices

1.30pm Chester – This is Dubai Honour’s to lose, but the price tells you that

It’ll obviously be disappointing if Dubai Honour can’t get the job done here, meeting far inferior horses off levels (obviously the 33/1 outsider Uluru gets 5lb as a mare).

But his best price of 4/5 tells you that. He is as short as 8/13 in a place.

If Cieren Fallon keeps it simple, sits second behind likely leader Grey Cuban and out of trouble, then it will be disappointing if he can’t outclass these then, having 11lb and more in hand of this field.

If you are looking for negatives at the price, he is an 8yo now, could be a suspect stayer in the ground (even here) and meets younger horses in Plage De Havre and Too Soon who come in here at the peak of their powers.

And the latter, a tempting enough 8s chance in truth, really has taken off since getting a bit of dig and being fitted with cheekpieces.

I’m very happy to watch without a bet, thanks.

That went live at 2.30pm on Thursday.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.27am):  Dubai Honour has hardened into 4/6.  Grey Cuban is weak; 8s to 12s and likely to get bigger.

 

1.45pm Doncaster – Castle could be King here but his reputation proceeds him

Rosberg is a NR (going).

Just the five in this 7f Group 2 Champagne Stakes, but the betting and chat suggests Newmarket winner Desert Castle could be another top-notch juvenile for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin.

Of course, the bare form and the time of his debut success doesn’t warrant quotes of between 4/5 and evens here – the second and third from that race have been roundly humped since – but we saw the same story on Thursday, when I was very sceptical about Musical Times, who also had plenty to find after wins in lowly company, and she just scraped home by 7 1/2 lengths…

Desert Castle needs to improve the best part of a stone to beat even one of his five rivals home – they are all rated 100+ and are no mugs – but clearly plenty think this regally bred Frankel colt will.

I can’t have him at the price, though you have to accept he is a possible worldie (well a Group-class horse, anyway) and possibly you may want to take him out of the equation and play in the Without Favourite markets when they appear.

Solario third and 7/1 chance Breacher could be the one to give him most trouble, for all he probably needs an extra furlong, but it isn’t a race that I have much interest in getting involved in – at the moment.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.33am):  It’s all about Desert Castle . Available at 6/5 on Thursday, he is now 8/11 tops; you are really paying to get with the hype now.

 

2.05pm Chester – 10/1 Stressfree’s early position will hopefully not have me shouting at the TV again

Dancing In Paris is a NR (going) – nothing to do with a Doncaster entry tomorrow….

People have to be mindful of criticism straying into abuse when it comes to jockeys, but let’s just say Mark Winn rode Stressfree sub-optimally at Haydock last week.

I appreciate he was beaten a long way into fourth and no-one is saying he would have got within hailing distance of the hugely impressive winner (or maybe even the runner-up), but it was obvious hold-up horses had little chance that day and yet he was still anchored last turning in.

To say I was cursing at an early point would be an understatement.

Sorry, Mark.

The ride, or maybe the instructions, lacked thought, shall we say. And, as it was, he could only stay on timidly from the rear, missing out on third by a head.

At 10s, four places, I have to give him – and Winn – another chance and spin here, each way.

I would have liked to have had a bit more on, but the allowed stake was a touch defensive.

I appreciate the horse tends to be ridden chilly but hopefully Winn can sit handier here as the horse has his first attempt at 2m (well, 1m7f196yd).

You don’t want to be making up too much ground when the stamina tank is running on empty;  so it surely makes far more sense to be much nearer than usual here.

I quite like the angle of him stepping up in trip though, as he often gets going all too late, and the handicapper dropped him another 1lb for that Haydock run.

He is one well handicapped horse at the moment, and hopefully he can get a midfield position from his draw in six, and a bit of dig is fine.

He won on his only start here, over an extended 1m2f on soft back in 2024 – in fact, that win came on this card.

This is Chester and all the hard luck stories that accompany the place, but he has a fair bit going for him in an open race.

The 10s has gone as at 2.38pm on Friday, but the 9s is fine.

Please don’t sit too far back, Mark…

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.30am):  Not a great deal of movement , but Granite Bay, 6s into 9/2, is probably the strongest at the moment.

 

2.20pm Doncaster – 8/1 Getreadytorumble is the right favourite – or he should head the market, anyway

Trefor is an early NR.

My shortlist of three in this 21-runner Portland are Getreadytorumble (11/2), Apollo One (7/1) and Rosario (10/1) – so hardly Einstein-stuff given the prices.

And, to be honest with you, I am probably a shade of odds-against to have a bet such is my line on originality.

But if I do, it will be Getreadytorumble , who I have down as far better than a 102-rated horse.

Though he hasn’t shown it so far, admittedly.

Well, not since his reappearance anyway.

Normally, being drawn 20 or 21 would be a big negative for me but there is pace all around him, and Tom Marquand can hopefully tuck in not far off the pace and put the pedal to the metal in the final furlong.

He looked set for a very good season when an unlucky third to Mission Central at Naas in April but it simply hasn’t happened for him since, including when I thought he should have won at Ascot last time.

The handicapper may have thought so too, as he upped him 2lb for that 1/2 length second, and the ground-versatile performer is surely primed to run a massive race here.

He won a 5f handicap at this meeting last season and hopefully you won’t do any damage if you can back him at 6/1, six places, available with three firms.

The 13/2 , five places, is obviously fine, too.

Sometimes it is best to stick with the obvious – even in 21-runner sprint handicaps.

That said, he has drifted to 7s and that will surely only get bigger – he is 12.0 on Betfair as at 7.38am on Saturday.

He is now 8s fixed-odds.

 

Annaf

My cliff horse Annaf is available at 28s here and I will have to have a small bet –  just in case.

He has been very disappointing of late but the 2023 winner of this race clearly has the ability to win this off a mark of 97 if in the mood.

I’d be in a very bad place if he won or was placed in this and I didn’t even a tenner to soften the blow.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.39am):  Getreadytorumble, as short as 5s on Friday, is exceptionally weak at the moment. He may have only drifted to 7s but he is 12.0 on Betfair . Too big to resist for me.

That 7s has to lengthen.

Twilight Calls is the new favourite, pretty much 5s across the board from 7s yesterday.

 

2.55pm Doncaster – 5/4 Thunder needs to show More oomph

The dead-eight in the 7f Group 2 Park Stakes – the Doncaster Cup was another example of why each-way punters should tread carefully if betting so far out in these situations  – and it will be fascinating to see which way More Thunder goes in the market.

At his best, down in grade, he really should be taking care of these, as top-priced quotes of 5/4 suggest.

But he could be wearing thin with punters now after five defeats on the bounce.

Of course, he should be winning this with something to spare on his Lockinge and Queen Anne seconds, but he has been relatively underwhelming on his last two starts (a poor ride at Ascot two outings ago, aside) and some may question if the winning attitude still burns bright in the 5yo.

I don’t have any issue with him coming back to 7f, as there is plenty of pace in here (see below), and the race promises to be run to suit his strong-finishing style.

I think he wins but I wouldn’t bet on it at 6/5 and each-way punters looking to side against him are better off waiting til much nearer the off.

Headgear angle points to Wise Approach each-way

You can back Charlie Appleby’s horses wearing first-time cheekpieces blind and make a profit (see below), so if all eight go I may chuck a few quid on Wise Approach.

And last year’s Middle Park winner didn’t run too badly off a break in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest last time.

16s each-way could be fair business if all eight go.

I have taken the plunge and backed him each-way at 14s on Saturday morning – no non-runners please.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.41am): More Thunder, 5/4 yesterday, is strong at 5/6 best now.  Nothing much doing elsewhere as you’d expect, with him so strong.

 

3.35pm Doncaster – 12/1 Highwayman and 40/1 Galiyan are each-way possibles. Maybe…

It’s the done thing to have a strong opinion on the biggest race of the day – the biggest race of the day in the UK at least – but the St Leger pretty much passes me by from a betting point of view.

I am not sold on the Derby and Voltigeur form of Epsom winner Christmas Day and stablemate Pierre Bonnard – wouldn’t it nice to see Dante runner-up Action allowed to run his own race and not be the workhorse for the other Ballydoyle runners yet again – and the first-time cheekpieces is an unnecessary unknown for market rival Enceladus.

They may well help him but Joseph O’Brien has a modest record when applying this headgear.

I’d still have him down as the most likely winner but 2/1 about him is a walkaway price now.

Highwayman and Galiyan for me

Stablemate Highwayman, the only winner over this trip, makes more appeal at 12s each-way, as he only made his debut in May and his progress on his last two starts. since stepping up in trip. is astonishing.

He went off at 250/1 when an “eyecatcher” in a 1m maiden just three starts ago.

Maybe they were looking for a mark for a 0-75 that day….

Like Hatteen, another likeable type on the up, his handicap mark leaves him with a stone-plus to find here with a peak-form Christmas Day or Pierre Bonnard, but proven stamina (he is the only 1m6f winner in field) and hugely progressive profile could count for a lot here.

I couldn’t put you off at 12s each-way.

Galiyan at 40s is my pick of the proper outsiders.

He blew his chance pre-race and early on in the Voltigeur last time, so if you draw a line through that, he could be a touch over-priced at 40s, and the first-time cheekpieces (stats below) could put some manners on him.

If they do, his Bahrain Trophy second over 1m5f gives him a place squeak here.

I have had each-way bets on Highwayman at 12s (and win only at 17.0 on Betfair) and Galiyan at 40s.

Small.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.45am): Christmas Day has resumed favouritism at a general 2s and 9/4 in a place.  Enceladus is 5/2 fixed-odds and nudging 11/4 win-only, with Pierre Bonnard 7/2 in a place, and 12s bar, which brings in one of my fancies Highwayman (you may get 14s on that one shortly).

 

3.55pm Leopardstown – Could 11/1 Memphis walk this? I’m backing her each-way, anyway

ITV have managed to slot the nine-runner Group 1 1m Matron Stakes at Leopardstown in to their Saturday schedule.

There is some deadwood in here – which is good news for the World Pool, who want a minimum of seven declared runners (it may not be a coincidence here) – but there is no denying there are proper Group 1 horses on show, and I wouldn’t quibble with Blue Bolt heading the market at 6/4.

The 5/4 as at 2.50pm on Friday is getting skinny enough, though.

Initially , I didn’t have a strong betting opinion but I loved the way City Of Memphis travelled and quickened up to beat Carolina Jetstream in a Group 2 at the Curragh last time.

The issue with backing her at 10s is that she hasn’t been seen since that victory in May, but maybe Paddy Twomey purposely gave her a rest after three quick early-season runs with a back-end campaign in mind.

Very French-like, if so. And master planner Twomey has been a patient man with this filly.

She is 12lb shy of Blue Bolt on official ratings, but I have a feeling she could hit the frame here – and maybe something more.

I am going to have a little nibble each-way at the general 10s.

I have just done.

She is 11s as of Saturday morning.

 

BETTING UPDATE (7.50am): Blue Bolt is all the rage – at the moment. She was 6/4 not so long ago but she is now into 10/11. And that seems likely to come under pressure.

 

4.15pm Doncaster – 7/1 Mezcala will hopefully be in the first five at least

I wonder if Checkandchallenge’s York backers will look to get their money back here – he was 25s to 10s on the show , only for the blindfold to be pulled off very late and all chance immediately gone as a result – and they can get 14s if they want to.

I think I may have to go for a check-up as I also fancy a shortie in this hugely competitive 1m handicap.

Step forward Mezcala at 7s, five places – I have had a modest involvement on those terms.

I hope his trainer Jack Channon, also responsible for Getreadytorumble, has a very good day then.

Channon has hardly ripped it up since a great March and April,  but they are in fair enough form now, with a 25-1 winner at Epsom on Thursday.

Mezcala was uncharacteristically disappointing at Ascot last time and the handicapper didn’t drop him an ounce for it, but he is only 4lb higher than when winning the 7f Buckingham Palace at the Royal meeting – and we all know how hard those handicaps are to win – and there could be more to come as a lightly-raced 4yo (this is just his 10th start).

He won over course and distance in great style in March, his only start at the track, and hopefully he can get the breaks from stall 14, with the pace all around him a plus.

As is the ground with a touch of ease in it.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.48am):  Mezcala, 7s when I flagged him yesterday, now looks plenty short enough at 4s across the board, Actually he is 7/2 in two places.

That’s the main move but my guess is he drifts back out, and not just because he is 5.9 on Betfair to little money. But early days…

 

BEST BET

Stressfree at 10s and 9s each-way in 2.05pm each way (get best place terms your accounts allow)

 

 

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

DONCASTER 

GOING – Straight course: Good: Round course: Good, good to soft

GOING STICK : 6.3, Saturday 7.45am

Soil Moisture 38%

Rails: Round Course – Fresh strip from previous two days. Innermost racing line.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry yesterday Today – mixture of sunny spells and the chance of showers from approximately mid day, 21C Tomorrow – mainly dry with sunny spells, 22C Gentle breeze

Watering: We have not watered the track since the 18th August – this was to aid recovery from our last meeting on the 15th August

Weather (7.55am Saturday): Looks pretty dry to me; chance of light showers late morning/ afternoon

 

CHESTER

GOING :  Good to soft, soft in places

“Likely to change as we near race time due to forecast rain.”

GOING STICK : 6.1, Saturday 7am

Rails: Rail will be back on the inside line. Distances as measured.

Stalls: 1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: No measurable rain over the last 24 hours. 25mm rain over the last 8 days. Light showers forecast from late morning through until 3pm. Likely to bring a Going change through the day. Highs of 20’C and a 15mph South Westerly breeze.

Weather (8.04am Saturday):  1mm this morning but clearly Chester are expecting more given the above statement (“Likely to change as we near race time due to forecast rain.”) – others saying 2mm+

 

LEOPARDSTOWN – Good

Latest HRI update – 12 September 8.10am – Following 1mm of rain in the last 24hrs, Leopardstown remains good. Blustery & mainly dry today

 

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS  (get your money back on these)

 

2.20pm Doncaster: Sir Yoshi, We Never Stop, Hucklesbrook, Vantheman, Fortification, Changeofmind, Manila Scouse, Rajaking, Boston Dan, Venture Capital (The Man wasn’t confirmed so no money back there)

 

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (four of the six headgear angles are positives at level stakes at SP)

 

Karl Burke cheekpieces; Dunkeld Dreamer, 2.05pm Chester; 23-275 (8%) -115.89 pts at SP

Julie Camacho visor; Desert Falcon, 2.20pm Doncaster; 7-51 (14%) +39.25 pts at SP

Charlie Appleby cheekpieces; Wise Approach, 2.55pm Doncaster; 49-197 (25%) +34.34 pts at SP

Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces; Enceladus, 3.35pm Doncaster; (just flat) 29-270 (10%) -104.53 pts at SP

Andrew Balding cheekpieces; Galiyan, 3.35pm Doncaster; 31-227 (14%) +21.32 pts at SP

T J Kent cheekpieces; Pinatubo’s Legacy, 4.15pm Doncaster; 2-11 (18%) +31.00 pts at SP

 

 

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.30pm Chester: Dubai Honour? (drawn 4), Grey Cuban (2)

1.45pm Doncaster (limited evidence):  Gentle Hurricane (prom – 6) – Rosberg is a NR

2.05pm Chester: Spirit Mixer (12), Granite Bay (5), Dunkeld Dreamer (11), Pole Star (prom – 4) – Dancing In Paris is a NR

2.20pm Doncaster: Air Force One (17), The Strikin Viking (9), Toca Madera (11), Desert Falcon (3), Schrodinger’s Cat (2), Apollo One (5), I’m Next (11), Station X (16), Eternal Sunshine (19), Jel Pepper (14) – Trefor is a NR

2.55pm Doncaster:  Myal (4), Qirat (1), Volterra (2), Witness Stand (3)

3.35pm Doncaster:  Action (8), Golden Story (11), Hatteen (3)

3.55pm Leopardstown: Carolina Jetstream, Fallen Angel

4.15pm Doncaster: Bullet Point? (9), Mister Winston? (17), Blue Courvoisier (15), River King (4), Scoville (6), Henlein (10)

 

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed ; form going into Saturday)

Good: Karl Burke (very good), Richard Spencer (very good), Charlie Appleby (very good),  William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden (very good),  Andrew Balding (treble on Friday, all at prices), Tim Easterby (excellent for him winners-wise), David Simcock,  Ralph Beckett (6-1 and 5-1 winners on Friday, and a treble rounded off by Amiloc at odds-on), Hamad Al Jehani (winner on Friday), William Knight, Stuart Williams

Fair:  Kevin Ryan (fair/good),  Richard Hannon (fair-moderate),   Jack Channon (25-1 winner on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien, Ed Bethell, George Boughey, Joseph O’Brien, Charles Hills (winner on Friday), David O’Meara,  Oliver Cole,  Michael Herrington (fair/good), Jim Goldie, , Muir and Grassick (22-1 winner on Wednesday), Mick Appleby, Grant Tuer, Roger Teal (12-1 winner on Friday), Dr Richard Newland, Faye Bramley, John and Sean Quinn, Gary and Josh Moore, Jarlath P Fahey, Adrian McGuinness, Llewellyn and Williams, Julie Camacho, Paddy Twomey, Daniel McLoughlin, Joseph G Murphy, Robson De Aguiar (not great of late), Clive Cox

Moderate:  Hugo Palmer (10-1 winner on Friday arrested the slide), Ian Williams (22-1 winner on Thursday and Beylerbeyi a good second in Doncaster Cup), Charlie Johnston (among the winners on Friday though) , Brian Ellison (won the Leger Legends with Tolstoy), Bryan Smart (fair-moderate), David Menuisier, Denis Gerard Hogan

Don’t know:  T J Kent, Geoff Oldroyd, Charalambous and Clutterbuck,  Steph Hollinshead, William Durkan