TONY CALVIN: 66-1 each-way Oaks swing is still in there, fighting

We lost three at the overnight stage in the Oaks, including the form filly Precise and my potential [100/1] swing Beautify, so we are left with nine.

All of them have chances at their respective odds so it is quite an interesting Classic in that regard, albeit one that clearly lacks a form stand-out.

I stuck up On Message at 66s eachw-ay on Sunday – that was available with 10 firms at the time – and she now ranges from 16s to 28s, so I am obviously happy with the position.

Actually, at 28s, she is now the outsider of the field, as the 33s, 28s and 25s was taken about Sugar Island early on Wednesday.

I may as well re-state the case I made for On Message at 66s on Sunday, though even the 28s wouldn’t particularly interest me now, if truth be told.

Actually, the 28s has just been taken and she is 25s, tops.

She is rated a mere 99 by the BHA handicapper (though we have three in the Derby rated between 80 and 83 – and horses aren’t allowed to run from 15lb out of the handicap over jumps) but we are dealing with a lightly-raced, rapid improver who looks sure to relish 1m4f, on run-style at least, and the Camelot factor gives that stamina assessment/guess some pedigree basis, too, though admittedly that looks a little shaky on paper.

She had a sighter of the track when winning a 1m handicap here on Trials day in late April and, while that success came off a lowly mark of 80, she powered home and the second and third won next time. She is the only filly in here with race experience at the track.

She finished with a real flourish when a closing length third to Inis Mor and Earth Shot (I rate the winner and they think the world of the runner-up) in the Height Of Fashion over 1m2f at Goodwood last time (a slowly-run race, granted) , and I am banking on this 1m4f test bringing about the necessary improvement to see her at least be competitive here.

The handicapper had her improving 14lb from Epsom to Goodwood, and a similar step forward over 2f further is not such fanciful thinking in such a winnable race.

I have a lot of time for the spikily urbane (if you can have that combo…) Ralph Beckett in many areas, not least his training prowess, and of course he already has two Oaks on his dance card.

The market says Beckett has better chances with A La Prochaine and K Sarra in this, but I’m hopeful On Message can be competitive. Even the stride pattern massive give her a fair shout on that metric, though I fully accept she may lack the class to give me the jackpot return.

I’d have preferred quicker ground (the family, who Beckett trained for the owners, prefer that, though sire and dam won on soft), but I don’t think we should go overboard about the rain.

I appreciate the current going stick reading suggests it is slower than the official good to soft, but it shouldn’t be too bad, and it is due to be dry on Thursday from 7pm onwards (around 10mm due before that).

Cheshire Oaks winner Amelia Earhart looks solid enough at [5/2] – though that hood and blinker combination does hint at an attitude – but I wouldn’t be sure on Musidora scorer’s Legacy Link’s stamina and maybe the same goes for the form horse, Guineas third Venetian Lace.

The [11/2] chance Thundering On is not copper-bottomed on stamina either, but the way she came home hard to win over Navan’s stiff 1m2f gives you plenty of encouragement she will last home.

She is a big runner.

Sugar Island has been cut from 33s to 20s today

Thundering On has shortened up a fair bit this week, as has O’Brien’s Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Cameo, and, as I said, Sugar Island was the one for money on Wednesday (though it would not have taken much, so maybe we should get used to saying has been cut instead), into 20s from 33s.

She was 66s on Monday and available at 50s and 40s early on Wednesday morning before the ante-post markets were closed around 8am.

I can see that move.

She has 5 1/2 lengths to make up with Amelia Earhart on the Cheshire Oaks form (and 2 1/4 lengths with A La Prochaine) but she wasn’t given a hard race at all there after going from the front on her return, never once being touched by the whip (it’s a whip, not a Pro Cush) once headed.

The rain is a welcome plus for her, and her 2 3/4 length defeat of Thundering On in a 1m Group 3 at The Curragh on heavy last season, with Cameo well beaten in fourth, obviously reads well enough.

Like I said, they all have their chance in this race and she is one of those, though is there is a nagging doubt perhaps that she could be the pacemaker again, with Beautify out?

Mind you, an O’Brien outsider/front-runner going off in front in an Epsom Classic and not coming back is not unheard of.

ALREADY ADVISED

On Message at 66/1 each way ante-post

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

EPSOM (33mm on Tuesday – 3mm today but now sunny spells and drying wind)

Soil Moisture 53% at 8.45am Wednesday

5 Furlong Course

Flat Turf: Good (Going Stick 5.8, Wednesday 8.45am)

Derby Course

Flat Turf: Good to soft (Going Stick 5.5, Wednesday 8.45am)

Rails: Rail out on Derby Course from 1m to winning post. Effect on distances to be confirmed.

Stalls: 5f – Stands Side 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside

Wednesday update: 33mm rain Tuesday, Rest of the week remains unsettled, with showers possible most days. Friday looks the driest day. Wednesday – 3mm rain recorded to 3pm. Cleared. Thursday – showers possible for much of the day, particularly morning, 4-6mm possible Friday – mainly dry, 1mm possible Saturday – showers possible in the morning, 3-4mm Temperatures will be in the late teens/early twenties.

Watering: 20mm in total applied Monday-Friday of last week. 5mm to entire course Saturday. No watering Sunday and in light of weather forecast for Monday-Tuesday no watering planned for Monday. Reviewed daily.

Latest yr.no (4.40pm):  3mm Wednesday up but now sunny spells and drying wind; 9.9mm Thursday (6am-5pm), 0.2mm Friday; 6.7mm Saturday (midnight to 7pm)

2.BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your money back on these)

4.40pm: Triple Double A, Port Road

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

James Tate cheekpieces; Great David, 3.15pm; 6-44 (since 2016)

George Boughey cheekpieces; Celeborn, 4.40pm; 15-114 (2020)

James Owen blinkers; Asmen Warrior 4.40pm; 1-24 (2024)

Hamad Al Jehani cheekpieces; Postmodern, 5.10pm; 1-6 (2024)

George Boughey hood: Awaken, 5.15pm; 9-34 (2020)

Hugo Palmer cheekpieces; Sunny Smile, 5.50pm; 15-144 (2016)

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed; ITV races)

1.30pm Epsom: Rosie Frith (drawn 7), She’s Got A Brother (15), Naana’s Shadow (8), One And Gone (11), Hanney Girl (3), Alfa Duplicate (1), Artista (2)

2.05pm Epsom (limited evidence): Alpe D’Huez (12), Hickory Lad (10), Time And Effort (9)

2.40pm Epsom: Royal Playwright (7), Seagulls Eleven (8), Boiling Point (4), Qirat (2)

3.15pm Epsom: Respond (15), Have Secret (7), Liberty Lane (1), Bolster (9), Great David (13)

4pm Epsom: Cameo (9), Legacy Link (1), On Message (7), Sugar Island (3), Venetian Lace (8)

4.40pm Epsom: Mister Winston (8), Mr Swivell (7), Asmen Warrior (5), Stem? (14), Jimmy Speaking (16)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races) – form going into Wednesday

Good: Ivan Furtado, Karl Burke, George Boughey, David Evans, Richard Hannon (never seen strike rate so high), John and Thady Gosden, Harry Charlton, Hamad Al Jehani (very small sample), Aidan O’Brien, Ed Walker, John Butler

Fair: Tim Easterby, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael and David Easterby, Richard Hughes, Ollie Sangster, Charles Hills (good for him),  Ian Williams, Patrick Morris, Adrian Keatley, Richard Hughes, Charlie Clover, Philip Makin, Hugo Palmer (good/fair), Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett, Ed Dunlop, David O’Meara, James Owen, Richard and Peter Fahey, Roger Varian, James Tate, Tom Dascombe, Joseph O’Brien, Charlie Johnston, Harry Eustace (fair/good), Chris Dwyer, Michael Bell

Moderate: Dylan Cunha, Brian Ellison, Gemma Tutty, Katie Scott, Lemos De Souza, Archie Watson (moderate/fair), Kaine and Wood, Gary and Josh Moore, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Jack Channon

Dont know: Patrick Magee