By Tony Calvin - 24 April 2026
Thankfully, the five-day fields at Sandown on Saturday have held up remarkably well at the overnight stage.
So the card isn’t as bad as feared on Monday.
They all stood their ground in the Celebration Chase and bet365 Gold Cup, we only lost one in the Oaksey Chase and we are just one shy of a maximum field of 20 in the opening handicap hurdle.
How many NRs we get from here, I am not so sure – badly, as at 1.32pm – but Sandown couldn’t have watered more to attract the runners (see below).
We also have a full field at Haydock (plenty have been balloted out – see below) – no ante-post favourite Mudbir there – and a field of 13 for the ITV contest at Leicester.
The copy will follow on Saturday morning, as I am out of action for most of Friday.
I’ll have to get up at silly o’clock, but at least all the prices will be 100pc accurate when I publish – look out for posts on tony_calvin on X – and I will have all the latest NRs, too.
NRs on Sandown card so far: Love Sonnet (1.13pm), Next Twist, Kadastral, Wilstar and Stanners Glen (1.45pm), Ventura Highway and Etalon (2.20pm), Jonbon (2.55pm), Montregard, Certainly Red and Invincible Nao (3.30pm), Altobelli, Kabral Du Mathan (4.02pm), Calimystic (4.40pm), Joltin N Jiving, Aurigny Mill, Authorised Speed, Surrey Lord and Trustintimes (5.15pm)
Changed EW terms, with just 15 runners now.
Next Twist was a NR as at 5.06pm on Friday (off colour).
Followed by Kadastral, Stanners Glen and Wilstar today.
Kadastral was as short as 3s in the ante-post market but he has gone for a walk since the final field was known on Thursday morning and, as at 5.10am on Saturday, he was available at [13/2] and set to get a good deal bigger (already 15/2 as at 7.08am).
He was [10.0] on Betfair at the same time, and that was seemingly going one way, too.
He is now 11s fixed odds, and three points bigger, win-only.
They clearly think he is better than his mark and it would be no surprise if he defied the drift (unlike a rather costly Devil’s Advocate yesterday…) but I flagged up Cosmic Connection at 12s and a general 10s at the start of the week, and he’d still be my idea of the most likely winner.
Unfortunately, unlike Kadastral, he has more than halved in the betting (if not from a percentage perspective, Mr Trump/Kennedy) and is now available at just 5s, though at least you are getting extra places in this 18-runner field with most firms (as ever, personally weigh up the price v place terms where you can bet).
I won’t be pressing up at the current odds – it’s important to say when you are betting yourself – but here is the case for him.
And it is quite a persuasive one too, I think.
Cosmic Connection was pulled up and beaten 30 lengths in his first two points (in 2025), but he has not looked back since breaking his duck in that sphere in January and he put up an impressive performance, especially on the clock, when winning at Chepstow earlier this month.
He really did win good-looking there, after travelling supremely well, and the runner-up won by 5 lengths off a 2lb higher mark at Chepstow yesterday.
A timely and considerable form boost.
With that in mind, I think a 6lb rise for that success could be exceedingly bridgeable here, even in a field of this depth in which Minella Yoga now heads the market at just [7/2].
Cosmic Connection currently is available at 6s+ win-only, for what it is worth. I really like his chances, if not necessarily his current odds (and he is actually as short as [7/2] in a place).
But he may well drift from his current odds, looking at the markets (has now hit 11/2 and 6s could be incoming).
He is a big, big player here.
Maybe Sandown will have Jamiroquai blaring out over the tannoy when he comes into the winner’s/winners’ enclosure, even if he is a gelding and not a girl.
And this is Sandown, and not Cheltenham…
I thought this was an exceptionally tricky 6f handicap, and one not helped by the fact that the value was sucked out of the market throughout Friday on two horses of note from a handicapping perspective.
Strike Red, second in the race last season, is one well handicapped horse at the moment, having been dropped 9lb for four runs (I had to double check he wasn’t trained by Skelton) and then having returned with a far more encouraging length third at Newcastle earlier in the month.
The handicapper left him on the same mark of 86 and that is 8lb lower than when second in the Stewards’ Cup just seven starts ago.
The problem is he was 8s early yesterday afternoon before he was shortened throughout the day, and he is now just a 5s chance.
Which is a current walkaway price in my book, but keep an eye on the market.
His chance is obvious , though I think you could argue he would prefer a bit more ease (mind you, he was a good second to Elmonjed off a 7lb higher mark than this on officially good to firm ground at York in 2024).
Russet Gold when 20s when he was tipped by the Sporting Life’s excellent Andrew Asquith yesterday (it is important to namecheck sources, I find…) and he is now 11s best (though a touch bigger on the exchange as this race preview goes live at 6.11am).
I like the trainer switch from Roger Varian to Kevin Ryan and a wind op could be another positive, too.
Like Strike Red, he is one well handicapped horse if Ryan has rejuvenated and readied him for this – he started his 2025 campaign on a 14lb higher mark – and he has gone well fresh in the past, if not first time out last season.
He is no win machine and he is another for whom easier ground may be preferred, but the handicapper has given him a fair old chance at the same time. The late market could tell the story as to whether this is D-Day for him, but this race offers over 25 bags to the winner, so that may have concentrated Kev’s mind.
He is weak on Betfair, and has drifted back out to 16s, fixed odds.
Prince Of India is the [7/2] favourite as at 9am.
By the way, Leicester have not told us how much water they have put on this week.
And this isn’t on.
The BHA should have instructed them to tell punters, and I hope they have had a word with the course.
As I always say, I bet trainers and owners are told on request, so why aren’t punters kept in the loop?
Ventura Highway is out at 8am (bruised foot), followed by Etalon at 1.59pm.
Even though the fields held up remarkably well at the overnight stage, as I said above in the brief Friday scene-setter, these Sandown Graded races are absolute gash – especially from a betting point of view.
Not one of the three on the card have enough runners for traditional each way 1,2,3 betting, for starters.
And this Grade 2 Oaksey Chase is decidedly lacking in quality, with the 151-rated Blow Your Wad (that’s wad, not load, Geoffrey Riddle, so chill out…) heading the betting at [13/8] and poor old Teddy Blue, with a rating of a mere 135, the one carrying a 4lb penalty.
The fact that ole Teddy is just 22s and the 129-rated Ventura Highway is 33s tells a story – this is one winnable Grade 2.
I won’t be having a bet but I can see why there has presumably been money for Mahons Glory, 22s on Thursday, into 11s.
Etalon has gone the other way in the betting. As short as [7/2] ante-post (and as big as 6s, to be fair), he is now available at 14s.
Work that one out (and I know Harry Skelton is on the 9/4 favourite Doyen Quest etc….).
I have a problem with this 7f handicap – in that I can fully see the case for Cosi Bello, Khafiz, Sarab Star and Great Acclaim.
And they are the first four in the betting.
So some help I am.
If I am going to have a bet then, it will only be a small one, and I am currently most tempted by Sarab Star, who is best priced at [5/1], with Khafiz not far behind.
Jack Channon is going well this season, and of late as well, and he puts first-time cheekpieces on this horse. And, given that he is 5 from 19 when utilising this option, that is noteworthy.
The horse’s half-brother Just Frank put up his best effort in pieces, fwiw.
There are negatives in that he is drawn wide in 11 here and only beat one home at Newcastle last time, but that recent run is eminently forgivable (I find that track a bit of a punting kip) and he got dropped 1lb for it, too.
If he runs to the form of his earlier Kempton second, then he has a good chance here. But, as I said, credible opposition is not hard to find , and I’d favour Khafiz over the remainder.
Jonbon is a NR
I won’t keep you long with this Sandown race either.
The first thing that hits you square in the face here is the potential pace in this race (see pace map below), so I imagine the jockeys may be having a chat between themselves in the weighing room and at the start.
Solness (I’ll be disappointed if his stable name isn’t Bob, though they may not have got Blockbusters in Ireland in the 80s) is obviously overpriced at [9/2] compared to [15/8] joint favourites Jonbon and Thistle Ask – he is rated the same horse as the former and 5lb superior to the latter – and he comes here after a superb battling second to Grey Dawning in the 2m4f Melling Chase, a trip that you thought would have stretched his stamina to the hilt.
But he didn’t flinch.
That was a lung-buster though, just 15 days ago – Thistle Ask has clearly been kept back for this – and the pace map suggests nothing should be getting an uncontested lead in here, him included.
Unless JJ Slevin drew the longest straw beforehand, that is.
As we saw with the punted Opera Ballo yesterday, you are halfway there if you know what is going to lead, even if it is merely from a trading angle…
Jonbon is currently winning the battle for favouritism as at 7.27am (we always say “battle” for favouritism, don’t we?).
Mirabad is 9s from 14s.
Montregard and Certainly Red are NRs
When I first looked at this race on Tuesday, Our Power, one of the four in here taken out of the Scottish National on Saturday due to the heavy ground (the others being Montregard, Ask Brewster and Road To Home – and they are three of the five at the top of the market), at 25s made most appeal.
Just.
Granted, the horse has had a season to forget, falling in the Grand Sefton in November and running poorly in the following months at Ascot and Wincanton.
He then missed a veterans’ chase at Newbury in February with a bruised foot, before last weekend’s no-show at Ayr.
And we are dealing with an 11yo here, from a stable going through an uncharacteristic poor/quiet spell. A small sample as ever with this yard, but they have been running badly and have had two recent odds-on defeats.
So the negatives were aplenty.
And still are.
However, at least the horse has come down 5lb this season and he is now 6lb lower than an 11-length, possibly non-staying, third in the 2025 Scottish National, and some 9lb lower than his peak mark.
And his best effort has come on officially good ground, and in cheekpieces.
He was due to run in first-time blinkers at Ayr last Saturday (the trainer has a record of 2 from 7 with this angle) and does so here, so the new headgear is a decent angle, perhaps.
And Sam Thomas is usually mustard when producing his staying chasers off a notable absence ( I recall racing’s Statto, Andrew Mount, saying as much and having the stats to back it up).
I wouldn’t say I had a strong opinion in here, as you may have guessed, but he is available at 20s, four places, and that still looks the best bet in this race to me, albeit marginally.
He is a very weak [36.0] chance at 7.28am, so you may get bigger than 20s shortly.
He duly went 25s at 7.06am.
Of those at the top of the market, In d’Or appeals most at 6s+ on the exchange. In stark contrast to Thomas, Fergal O’Brien has his team in excellent back-end form.
Montregard was into 3s at 9am.
Chase: Good, good to firm in places; (Going stick 6.5, Sat 7am)
Saturday course update: 1mm rain in April to date. Prolonged dry spell continues. 20 degrees peak on Friday. Similar expected Saturday.
Watering: Friday evening we completed an irrigation cycle of 5-6mm on both courses. Selective watering Saturday morning.
Yr.no latest (4.52am Saturday): Dry and sunny, 21 degrees
GOING STICK: 6.7, Sat 7am
Rails: Small drop-in from the East Bend to 4f pole. All races will be run on the Outer track.
Saturday course update: 23mm in April. High pressure and sunny to Raceday. Strong drying breeze Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum temperature of 21°C.
Yr.no latest (4.52am Saturday): Dry and sunny, 18 degrees
Watering: : 2 furlong of straight will have 2.5mm to hold.
GOING STICK: 7.1, Saturday 6.30am
Saturday course update: Dry overnight. Forecast- Saturday- Dry and sunny max temp 21c.
Watering: “Watering in progress” on Monday – nothing since
Yr.no latest (4.52am Saturday): Dry and sunny, 20 degrees Saturday
2.35pm Haydock: Miss Nightfall, Billyjoh, Misunderstood, Spangled Mac, Shah, Accentuate, Miami Matrix, Walson’s Law, Ata Rangi, Pietro
Jack Channon cheekpieces; Sarab Star, 2.35pm Haydock; 5-19
Sam Thomas blinkers; Our Power, 3.35pm Sandown; 2-7
1.45pm Sandown: Kocktail Bleu, Desertmore News, Race To Base (prom), Dutch Corner, Ambiente Friendly, Legal Weapon (prom), Way Of Stars (prom), Love You Back (prom) – Next Twist is a NR, as is Kadastral, Wilstar and Stanners Glen
2.05pm Leicester: Berkshire Whisper (drawn 7), Zoulu Chief (prom – 3) , Russet Gold? (1)
2.2opm Sandown: Doyen Quest, Mahons Glory, Matterhorn – Ventura Highway and Etalon are NRs
2.35pm Haydock: Cerulean Bay (prom – 10), Khafiz (prom – 4), Sarab Star (11) (don’t know about ex-Aussie Henlein)
2.55pm Sandown: JPR One, Thistle Ask. Mirabad, Solness – Jonbon is a NR
3.30pm Sandown: Henry’s Friend, Rock My Way, Ask Brewster, Livin On Luco – Montregard, Certainly Red and Invincible Nao are NRs
Good: Andrew Balding, Olly Murphy (eight winners in the last four days), Chris Gordon (smallish sample), Tom Ellis (another winner on Friday – he is flying along), Harry Fry (small sample), Fergal O’Brien, Ed Bethell, Seamus Mullins (small sample), Nicky Henderson (7-1 winner on Friday), Karl Burke, Marco Botti, Joseph O’Brien (another double on Friday), Kevin Ryan, Parkinson and Smith, Robert Cowell (very small sample), Tony Carroll, Dan Skelton
Fair: Alan King, Paul Nicholls, James Owen, Anthony Honeyball, Willie Mullins (fair/good), Tom Lacey (fair/good – small sample), David O’Meara, Eve Johnson Houghton, Mick Appleby, Clive Cox (no winners), Hugo Palmer (winner on Friday), Ben Pauling, Hobbs and White (fair/good), Neil Mulholland, Jack Channon (another winner on Friday – fair/good), Charlie Fellowes, Richard and Peter Fahey, James Tate, Harry Derham (fair/good), Tim Easterby (double at Beverley on Thursday, and another on Friday), Joe Tizzard
Moderate: Nick Scholfield, David Pipe, Gary and Josh Moore, Dylan Cunha, Sam Thomas, Joey Ramsden, Ian Williams (some have been running well enough in a big sample), Hughie Morrison, Mrs C Williams
Don’t know: Oliver Signy, Heather Main (though two runners; one winner at 12-1), Toby Lawes, Lydia Richards
On this week’s pod: Intro: Rochdale Woe & Trainer Bets (0-5mins) Weekend Racing Review: On…
THE 2,000 Guineas in focus – my current two against the field We still had…
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