TONY CALVIN: 25/1, 12/1 and 8/1 chances well worth considering at Haydock on Saturday

3.35pm Haydock

Weather forecasts can be as reliable and as accurate as my tipping in the last fortnight, but unfortunately they have to remain essential reading for ante-post punters.

The former, that is….

And they are a must for two main reasons.

One is obviously that you need to know the likely ground (no guarantees, obviously, as I will shortly come on to) for your weekend fancies but, far more importantly, you need to try to ascertain if trainers are going to run their entries.

You have to try to second-guess them from a KYT perspective – that is, Know Your Trainers -and the weather forecasts play a huge role in this.

Some like to roll the dice and take their chances come what may – and a 400k pot helps to sway plenty – but others are far more cautious and have a very set idea of what ground their horses need, even if there is formbook evidence to the contrary (so the facts may not even come into it).

The following will be music to the ears of those who dismiss weather forecasts, though (these types tend to believe good horse go on any ground and ignore double-entries, too)

Haydock hosts the 400k Group 1 Sprint Cup on Saturday. The ground is currently good to soft, soft in places, there after they copped 9mm on Sunday and another 8mm on Monday, but it promised to get a whole lot deeper when I looked first thing on Monday morning.

The amounts of rain varied from site to site (another problem for us weather-obsessives) but the main one I used had a reasonably dank and damp week – nothing too major -at Newton-Le-Willows before it gets very tasty on Friday, with 21mn forecast on that day alone.

Now, if that had landed, we were probably looking at borderline heavy ground on Saturday. And non-runners. Ante-post punters have to prepare for the worst, and try to minimize those no-shows.

But then I looked again on the site at just after midday and all Friday’s rain had disappeared.

Literally, all of it, and some sites are now predicting unbroken sunshine. Aah, the mutability of the weather, as I think Shakespeare once said.

So I seriously don’t know what to think now.

I’ll work on the basis of good to soft, but it could easily dry out to nearer good on the day.

So no clues, as it stands, as it is set to be what is often called “no excuses” ground. Unless you want it rattling fast or hock-deep, obviously.

I was going to say this meeting hasn’t had much luck with the weather down the years, but my ageing memory is clearly playing tricks on me.

It is a fixture I have attended many times down the years and I always seem to recall getting very wet, but it has actually been decent ground for the last three renewals (and good to firm for two of them).

To be fair to my brain cells, it was consistently deep ground from 2016 to 2020 though, so maybe some of the old brain cells are still alive and well.

There were 27 in the race before the midday confirmation stage on Monday – last year’s winner Regional and Starlust were scratched before that – and we now have 22.

We lost the following: Believing, Bradsell, Aesop’s Fables, Khaadem, Night Raider, Valiant Force and Significantly.

And Flora Of Bermuda has been supplemented at a cost of £20,000, a surprising move perhaps for a horse that is 33s in five places. Maybe they took that decision when the heavens were set to open on Friday.

Another factor to bear in mind is that four of the 22 are also in a Listed race at York on Sunday. They are Art Power, Azure Blue, Frost At Dawn and Twilight Calls.

Inisherin remains the ante-post favourite and soft ground would probably be no barrier to his winning chances, if the initially forecast rain returns, as he looks pretty ground-versatile.

Or so I initially thought.

He won on officially soft ground over course and distance here in May but, against that, Timeform called it good to soft that day, and his explosive Commonwealth Cup win came on good to firm, so maybe he will want the current forecast to remain in place.

And his trainer was worried about soft ground before his win in May, saying he “hardly bends his knees.”

Either way, he makes limited appeal to me at his best price of [4/1], even though that is being mopped up as I write – he has to bounce back from a disappointing run in the July Cup (connections thought he didn’t like the track) and his stable could be in better form, too – and the handicapper would have you believe that Bucanero Fuerte should be a lot shorter than 14s in the betting.

The Irish handicapper has him on 120, while Inisherin is on 117 here.

We haven’t seen last year’s runaway Phoenix Stakes winner since he won on his return at Naas in May, as he had to miss Royal Ascot with a setback.

Apparently, the intention is to run here but, given his absence – Bucanero Fuerte had to miss his intended target in the Commonwealth Cup after a bout of travel sickness coming over, and actually spent a night in the Newmarket Equine Hospital – I am not entirely sure he is an ante-post betting conveyance.

The flip-flopping weather forecast is great news for the [6/1] second favourite Elite Status as, although a winner on officially soft ground in France (Timeform called it good to soft), his best form has come on a quick surface.

Indeed, once again, let Timeform be your calling card here as they had it as good to firm for both of his 2024 wins at Newbury, so drying conditions would appear to be very good news for him.

That said, the horse’s trainer, Karl Burke, also has a very strong second-string with 8s poke Swingalong narrow runner-up in the Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup, and an excellent fourth in this race last year considering she raced on her own by the near rail, when drawn on the wing in 18.

In fact, Burke also has 20s poke Spycatcher in here.

I could run you through all 22 entries but let’s shit or get off the pot, shall we.

Is there a bet to be had at this stage?

In some respects, I think Swingalong is the most solid bet at the 8s in 13 places, including with AKBets, for the reasons outlined above.

In addition, this front-runner can handle soft if required.

I know he would say this, wouldn’t he, but the owner’s racing manager, Philip Robinson, was reported as saying – actually I should mention I read this on Irishracing.com – on Monday that “it’s the perfect race for her and one that has been on the cards for a long while.”

The question is whether we stick or twist ante-post at the current 8s, or wait until the day-of-race market forms on Thursday when we know where she is drawn, what pace opposition she faces, what the ground is like and how many rivals she has to take on.

On balance, I am happy to wait.

Of the outsiders, the 25s (in four places, including AKBets) about Annaf is perhaps the most interesting.

We haven’t seen him since he copped the thick-end of a million when winning at Riyadh in February – £944,881.89 to be precise – and I think I’d be just about sobering up if I had trousered that sum.

Presumably he took a long while to get over the pneumonia that ruled him out of the Dubai World Cup meeting in late March, but 25s is arguably big enough for all the doubts.

He ended last season in rude health, winning the Portland and a Group 3 at Ascot, and his earlier seventh, when a 66s chance, in this race last year can be marked up considerably as he got no sort of run and was beaten only 3 ½ lengths.

So, if you want a bet now, my two against the field at the moment are Swingalong and Annaf at [8/1] and [25/1] respectively.

But, personally, I will sit tight for now.  The latter obviously carries risk ante-post, though I see Rossa Ryan is already jocked up, for what it is worth.

UPDATE: See below. I have decided to formally tip them, as I have just backed them myself.

Back later on Tuesday, or very early on Wednesday morning – I have the 3yo grandson on Tuesdays, and I am normally ready for a 12-hour kip after he departs – with the rest of the weekend ITV races analysed, but all of the double-entries for those races are already listed below.

Be careful if you are betting at Ascot at the weekend, as we have a “difference of opinion, Geoffrey” on the weather front.

They actually put 5mm on the whole track on Monday but the yr.no forecast currently has the following rain in the coming days: 13mm Wednesday, 21mm Thursday, 6.6mm Friday and 2.9mm Saturday. They have also had 2mm since midnight.

Presumably that forecast has appeared from nowhere overnight, though the BHA site are rather more optimistic on the rain front and are saying they expecting only between 4-8mm by Friday.

If accurate, obviously.

Go well.

I may just add any further Saturday update on here, and flag when it is live on X.

UPDATE – as of 3.30pm , Tuesday

As above, I have decided to add Swingalong and Annaf as bets, basically because I have just backed them myself. To modest sums, admittedly.

Here is my take on the rest of the eight ITV races, where there is another bet at 12s to be had.

1.35pm Ascot – 16s Pearle D’Or attractive, but double-entered

The update has to begin with Ascot.

The picture here dramatically changed overnight.

It was good, good to firm, in places at the track on Monday and, 15mm forecast on one site on Friday aside, the forecast was mainly dry.

So much so that the course put 5mm on the whole track on Monday and, after 2mm of rain since midnight, the ground has changed to good.

But that is maybe only the first step to soft and beyond if one forecast is correct. They have 40mm landing between Wednesday and Friday, though the BHA site are far more optimistic and are going with 4-8mm.

So it is hard to know which way ante-post punters should turn. I’d be looking to soft ground horses myself, but who knows?

Throw in the fact that the two ITV races also carry a lot of double-entries (see below), and bettors could be easily forgiven for waiting until the final fields.

There are currently 28 in the 7f handicap at 1.35pm and 12 of those have alternative engagements this week. So that helps narrow it down a fair bit from my perspective, as I only very rarely entertain horses that could run elsewhere in the short term.

Pearle D’Or is one of the dozen, so he is out of bounds, but if he runs here instead of at the track on Friday then he has a much better chance than the 16s in two spots suggests because he has a very good Ascot record, he is effective on good or heavy ground, and he is well treated off 87.

But I have to wait until I see where he goes.

2.10pm Ascot – Margins far too defensive

Nine of the 18 in this 3yo 1m4f handicap are double-entered, but this remains a devilishly-difficult race to solve all the same.

And the bookmakers are all betting to very defensive margins, shall we say. For example, a lot of firms have nine horses priced up at 8s or below.

Working out which one of Ralph Beckett’s three will come out on top is hard enough (they are chalked up at best odds of 9, 12s and 20s, though their general prices are much lower).

Nothing doing here.

2.35pm and 3.15pm Kempton

There are 13 entries for the Group 3 September Stakes and 25 in the London Mile Series Final handicap (maximum field of 14 in the latter) and, once again, it is not hard to see most of the field being available at their current prices, at least, come the weekend.

Throw in unsure running plans, and these are easily left alone until 10.01am on Thursday.

1.50pm Haydock – 12/1 Sam Hawkens worth a small wager

Back to Haydock again then.

There are four races on ITV here before the Group 1 sprint at 3.35pm – I am warming to both of the above as the day progresses, and have decided to include them here as bets, as stated above – but nothing interests me at the prices in the 12-strong 1m Group 3 at 1.15pm, a race in which Maljoom ranges from [6/4] to [2/1] favourite.

Understandable, if unattractive, perhaps.

We then have three very competitive handicaps, though the Be Friendly 5f sprint at 3pm can easily be ignored until we have the final pace map.

Mind you, the 50k handicap has only attracted 16 entries, already one shy of the maximum allowed on the day.

The 3yo 1m6f handicap at 1.50pm contains a lot of runners that are also entered in Ascot’s 2.10pm.

The one that interested me is Sam Hawkens, a horse who I took a dart at on his first start for William Haggas in the Shergar Cup last month, having been bought out of Richard Hannon’s yard for 105,000 guineas in early July.

A massive trainer upgrade there, then.

He didn’t pull up any trees there but I thought he did very well to finish fourth considering Hayley Turner had him positioned too far off the pace throughout – this is a horse who made all over 1m4f on heavy in the past, and regularly forced it – and you would assume he will be ridden much handier here.

I have no idea if he is an intended runner (so I’ll be keeping stakes small) but he is the only Haggas entry in a 100k handicap, so you’d have thought he would be, and the stable has won two out of the last four runnings of this.

The 1m6f is an unknown – he disappointed over an extended 1m6f at Doncaster in June for his previous handler – but I’m not making any hard and fast decisions about the stamina of this Galileo colt on the basis of one run.

Now, this could be a very tasty handicap on the day – as it should be for the cash – but eight of the 16 could go elsewhere, and I think 12s is worth a small-stakes, win-only dart. He is that price with six firms, including AKBets

Haggas has had another month to get to know the horse, who is bred to be rated a lot better than his current mark of 86.

I’ve no betting opinion in the other 1m6f handicap on the card, at 2.25pm. Not at the moment, anyway.

ANTE-POST BETS

Sam Hawkens at [12/1] win-only in 1.50pm at Haydock on Saturday. Available with six firms, including with AKbets.

Swingalong at [8/1] win-only in 3.35pm at Haydock on Saturday. Available with 13 firms, including with AKBets

Annaf at [25/1] win-only in 3.35pm at Haydock on Saturday. Available with four firms, including AKBets.

GOING AND WEATHER – UPDATED 9am Wednesday

HAYDOCK (three-day meeting starting on Thursday)

Going: Good to soft

Weather: Had 9mm on Sunday; 8mm on Monday. Spits and spots all week, but largely dry now on most sites.

ASCOT (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Good (as at 8.17am Wednesday)

Weather: 4mm Wednesday, 2.5mm Thursday, 23mm Friday (course are saying 12-15 mm expected by Friday on BHA site)

Watering: 5mm of whole track on Monday; 2mm of rain early on Tuesday.

KEMPTON:

Going: Standard To Slow

DOUBLE-ENTRIES FOR ALL SATURDAY ITV RACES

1.15pm Haydock: Witch Hunter (few entered in various early closers on Sept 14^th)

1.35pm Ascot: Awaal, Bless Him, Bosh, Fresh, Judgment Call, Merlin The Wizard, Pearle d’Or, Racingbreaksryder, Run Boy Run, Spangled Mac, Star of Orion, United Approach

1.50pm Haydock: Filibustering, High Order, Hutchence, Imperial Sovereign, Poniros, Screaming Eagle, Too Bossy For Us, Walter Hartright

2.10pm Ascot: High Order, Hutchence, Imperial Sovereign, Poniros, Screaming Eagle, Too Bossy For Us, Brioni, Houstonn, Macduff

2.25pm Haydock: Walter Hartright, Assail, Lincoln Rockstar, Onesmoothoperator, The Goat

2.35pm Kempton: Macduff, Onesmoothoperator

3.00pm Haydock: Equilateral, Hyperfocus, Jumbeau, Kylian, Looking For Lynda, Miss Attitude, Night On Earth (due to run at Goodwood on Tuesday), Rocking Ends, Toca Madera

3.15pm Kempton: Al Rufaa, Kilt, Nap Hand, Rajindri, Valkyrian (due to run at Southwell on Wednesday)

3.35pm Haydock (quite a few also entered in early closers on 14/15^th Sept): Art Power, Azure Blue, Frost At Dawn, Twilight Calls

P & L (July 22-Aug 31) – 23.8