TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s column on Goodwood and Sandown – and ground has eased significantly at both

GROUND LATEST ON SATURDAY MORNING

“Goodwood have had 6.2mm rain overnight as at 6.51am. “Main band of rain due in the next hour or so, 6-12mm through to lunchtime then sharp showers.”

I think we are heading towards some good to soft in the going description there.

And maybe even soft if the rain doesn’t stop soon (as at 10.55am it was still raining it seems).

It is now good to soft.

Sandown is good on sprint course and good, good to soft on round course, after being dry overnight. Rain expected from 9am (maybe 6mm?).

2pm Goodwood – Weather watch is key here – and they are copping the rain big-style

Completely Random is a NR as at 8.14am (not eaten up), as is Aalto now and Addison Grey (both going). As is Carnival Of Light now.

The ground is now good to soft, and it could ease further.

I think we can easily give the 1.25pm from Goodwood and 1.40pm from Sandown a swerve – and the 3.45pm at Goodwood too, which ends the terrestrial coverage – and the big factor if punting this weekend is the weather.

The midweek thunderstorms didn’t materialise at either track, but there is a fair bit of rain currently forecast at both courses from Saturday morning onwards (plus maybe some on Friday afternoon), so Goodwood’s good to firm, good in places, may well change appreciably.

Likewise, the current good ground at Sandown (currently a fine day there, though).

And, as Thirsk showed on Friday, racing round a bend presents its difficulties in the current crossover period of weather.

The thing that immediately struck me about this 7f handicap is the lack of an obvious front-runner, though I had maybe Ghost Mode and Rhoscolyn (normally held up but has led twice before and been ridden prominently a few times) as contenders to press on.

And that made that pair of immediate note.

Of course, Forty Years On is a far more sexy beast here, given her profile, and the forecast rain is an obvious plus for her. But even a best-priced [5/2] makes limited appeal to me.

She may well be the Evander Holyfield/David Dickinson off a mark of 96, so maybe you want to keep her onside if she drifts a touch – that is, not losing if she wins – or even bet in the Without Markets when they appear.

She is by far the most likely winner.

My three against her are Ghost Mode, Rhoscolyn and Addison Grey, who thrived stepped up this 7f trip for the first time at Newbury last time and a 4lb rise doesn’t look overly-punitive. I couldn’t resist a small bet on the latter each-way at 16s but it wasn’t the biggest surprise to see him a NR after the rain.

15/2 Rhoscolyn would love it if it hammered down – and he acts on quick ground if it doesn’t

So which of the three would be suited if 10mm+ lands tomorrow?

Ghost Mode has never raced on anything slower than good according to Timeform, and the same goes for Addison Grey (though I have to admit no way would I lay that one at 16s), but Rhoscolyn (also in at Goodwood on Sunday and Epsom on Monday) would absolutely love it if it bucketed down. He handles decent ground but plenty of dig is preferable.

I wasn’t that surprised, then, when the 10s across the board shrunk into 15/2 on Friday morning – and even less so when I clocked Hugh Taylor had put him up.

I thought you were meant to be giving Saturday’s racing a swerve these days, Hubert…

Anyway, Rhoscolyn is now off a mark of a mere 84 here after finishing last at Chester last week, his lowest level since May 2021.

Handicapped to win again, and with a 5lb claimer on for good measure (i have no idea how good Shay Farmer is but he is one from one for the stable on a 18s poke).

Rhoscolyn was an early morning punt from 9s to 4s at Chester (it would have taken buttons, granted) before drifting back out, and he was always on the back foot after blowing the start from stall one, so I’d give him a pass for that. And the handicapper dropped him 3lb for it.

We know Goodwood with cut is his bag , and he won this very race in 2023. And Goodwood form figures of 123731011001201060 show he generally thrives here – and it gets silly good on soft.

And all of those course successes came off higher marks than 84, some considerably so.

The 15/2 is probably only okay now though, so I’ll be up early on Saturday morning to see what the weather does, then I’ll play, if the price has held/lengthened and rain is still imminent.

Possibly without the favourite, too.

The 15/2 is still fair though it you want to go early ( I have had a small preliminary tickle but nothing major) – and if it pisses down I will press up. I imagine you’ll have to be quick to react if it does lash down.

On the face of it he has been in woeful form – he has effectively not beaten a horse home in his last three starts – and stall nine is not ideal if they want to go forward on him – and it may be asking too much for even good to soft to get into the going description, but you never know these days.

A splash on the barmaid’s apron is often enough these days on well-watered ground – and Goodwood were still watering on Thursday.

But let’s see.

2.15pm Sandown – That’s more than fair enough, fair enough

The ground has changed to good to soft on both courses after the first race (now had 2.6mm as at 2.07pm).

My fancy King’s Charter is a late NR. As is Cash.

We have three first-time headgear stats (see below) in this 1m2f handicap – but I only have eyes for one.

What you look for in this area is trainers that better, or are close to, their usual strike-rate when applying headgear for the first time – and so much the better if there is a hefty sample involved.

Step forward Charlie Appleby.

Appleby is not only in great nick at the moment but he has operated at a strike-rate of 30pc in the last five years according to the Racing Post, and he is 45 from 151 with initial cheekpieces in the last 10 years.

I make that a gnat’s hampton shy of 30pc.

I should mention the horse in question at this stage, King’s Charter, whose dam also happened to win in first-time cheekpieces. And his sibling Skellet was only beaten a head in a Group 3 in her first try in them.

I have no opinion on claimer Toby Moore but 7lb is 7lb and he is 12 from 116 in his career, which is fair enough.

And he is 6 from 17 for Appleby, which is more than fair enough.

The horse was two from two in 2025 and he showed enough at Meydan in the spring, with form against Archivist (my stand-out performer at the Ebor meeting) and Dividend (both now rated much higher), to suggest a mark of 104 could see him prove competitive here.

He is now [10/1] and that is fair enough, and he is currently 14.5 in a very illiquid exchange market, which is more than fair (as at 10.17am Saturday).

I have said fair enough a fair few times here, sorry.

Ground watch again

Any significant softening of the ground would be an unknown (he has never raced on anything easier than good), which looks likely with 14mm due at Sandown on Saturday,  at the time of writing (1pm, Friday) anyway.

That is a concern, so I’ll keep a watching brief before I get involved.

I have had to have another small bet on him given there has been so little rain (just 1.6mm as at 12.55pm) and he has hit 16.5 (12s fixed-odds).

Mind you, the ground is good to soft all of a sudden, which is perhaps not ideal for him.

He is now a NR anyway.

I am not too far from Sandown and they seem to have missed the rumbles of thunder in the area on Friday afternoon, and Saturday’s forecast has just improved a touch.

Alcarath was 8s yesterday and is just 4s now as at 9.52am, so the bird has probably flown if you fancy that one.

3.10pm Goodwood – 12/1 Naqeeb a touch overpriced in a weak Group 2

Arisaig is a NR on ground now described as good to soft, soft in places.

As is Pina Sonata.

So we are down to seven runners.

I liked High Degree at 5/2 in the 2.35pm at Goodwood and Calendar Girl at 7/2 in the 2.50pm at Sandown best  – though 4s is available in a spot for the latter – but I wasn’t overly-enamoured by the current prices.

I do think Naqeeb is a touch overpriced at a generally available 12s  as at 8.11am on Saturday (15.0 on Betfair with the usual liquidity observations) in this 1m Group 2 Celebration Mile though; not a lot, but enough for a small each-way interest.

The old man of this party as a 6yo, he is certainly not in the flush of youth compared to the 3yo form horse Zavateri, backing up quickly after a fifth in the City Of York Stakes last week.

But what he is, is a solid 110-rated performer who probably ran as well as he has ever done when fifth in this grade over this trip at Ascot in July.

Throw in his excellent course form (track figures of 212) and it is hard to escape the conclusion that double-figure odds are a touch disrespectful in a race that has cut up massively from the five-day stage.

He was only beaten a short-head by Boiling Point over 1m2f here in May; he is 3lb better off here and Karl Burke’s horse is a general 4s and 7/2 chance and Naqeeb is 11s.

Go figure, though I accept this mile trip could be a big factor in that pricing.

Once again, the forecast rain could be a bit of a ballache – Timeform have him as racing on heavy on his debut and good to soft just once since (when below par in the Irish Cambridgeshire) , though it was officially good to soft when he won here at 33s last September – but this is as weak as a baby’s piss for a Group 2 race, whichever way you slice it, and I give him a very fair chance of getting a podium place at least.

There is plenty of pace in here on paper, including Naqeeb himself, so a stamina test at a mile could be just what the doctor ordered.

I’d be very worried about him on the ground now though. Soft will be entering the Goodwood going description soon.

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

SANDOWN (changed to good to soft after the first)

GOING – Round Course:  Good, good to soft in places;  Going Stick 6.8; Sprint Course: Good; Going Stick 6.9 – as at Saturday 8am

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 5.4mm rain Thursday morning. 0.2mm shower Friday. 1mm rain to 11am Saturday, light and patchy. Possible sharper showers for remainder of Saturday.

WATERING: 7.5mm applied 5 days a week for last fortnight. No watering over the weekend. 5mm selectively on quicker ground on both Sprint and Round Courses Monday.

Weather (as at 7.21am Saturday) – 7.8mm Saturday (starting 9am til 3pm; looks like being less)

GOODWOOD (soft after the third race)

GOING: Soft

GOING STICK: 7.0, Saturday 12.12pm

34% soil moisture

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 6.8mm rain over 19th/20th 4.8mm Thursday morning. **20.2mm since midnight** Main band of rain now through. Still misty and drizzly. Due to lift and then risk of sharp showers.

WATERING: Applied 5mm to the Field Side (1m6f start to Oak Tree Corner) & 5f to 4f on Monday. Applied 4mm 6f to 4f on the Straight on Thursday.

Weather (as at 7.14am Saturday) –   10mm more to come on Saturday?

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Charlie Appleby cheekpieces; King’s Charter, 2.15pm Sandown; 45-151 (since 2016) – NON-RUNNER

James Tate cheekpieces; Flying Frontier, 2.15pm Sandown; 6-47 (2020)

John and Thady Gosden visor;  My Love Is King, 2.15pm Sandown; 2-9 (2021)

Sean Woods hood; Firehorse, 3.30pm Sandown; 3-20 (2021);  11-1 winner Dojin on 15th August

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed) & NRs

1.25pm Goodwood (limited evidence):  No obvious pace

1.40pm Sandown: Too little evidence to go on – Thi Qar is a NR

2pm Goodwood (no obvious pace): Ghost Mode? (drawn 6), Rhoscolyn? (9) – Completely Random, Aalto and Addison Grey and Carnival Of Light are NRs

2.15pm Sandown: Crown Of Oaks (8), Kokbastau? (9), Alcarath (1), Gonna Fly (3) – King’s Charter is a NR, as is Cash.

2.35pm Goodwood: High Degree (3),  Rathgar (7)

2.50pm Sandown: Cap Santa Lucia (9), Moon Target (2), Secret Of Life (8)

3,10pm Goodwood: Boiling Point (1), Naqeeb (9), Qirat (8), Seagulls Eleven (7), Pina Sonata (3) – Arisaig is a NR, as is Pina Sonata

3.30pm Sandown (little evidence):  Sonic Angel (1) – Sergei Diaghilev is a NR, as is Rock Montreal.

3.45pm Goodwood (little evidence):  Chimes Of Thunder (2), Mathoura (7)

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Roger Varian, William Haggas, Andrew Balding (fair/good), Clive Cox, Harry Eustace, Charlie Appleby, John and Thady Gosden, James Fanshawe (superb form and among the winners again on Friday),  George Boughey, Sir Mark Prescott,  Sean Woods (5-1 winner on Wednesday), Ed Bethell, James Tate (another winner on Friday), Alan King, Simon and Ed Crisford, Harry Charlton, Brian Meehan (7-1 and 11-4 winners on Wednesday)

Fair: Charlie Johnston, Ralph Beckett (winner on Friday), Richard Hughes (double on Friday), Ed Walker (double at Goodwood on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore, Charlie Hills (winner on Friday), Owen Burrows (very small sample), Tom Ward (winner on Wednesday), Stuart Williams, David O’Meara, Ian Williams, George Scott, Jamie Osborne (13-2 winner on Wednesday), Rod Millman (winner on Friday), Kevin Phillipart De Foy,  Karl Burke (treble on Thursday), Ollie Sangster, Joe Tickle (1 from 5), Charlie Fellowes, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Mick Appleby (fair/moderate), Aidan O’Brien, Muir and Grassick (16-1 and 3-1 winners on Thursday), Julie Camacho

Moderate (maybe….):  Eve Johnson Houghton (STOP PRESS – 18-1 winner on Friday), Michael Bell (9-2 winner on Thursday though), David Simcock (4-1 winner on Thursday though), Marcus Tregoning (few placed), David Menuisier, Mark Loughnane, Jack Channon (evens winner on Friday), Hugo Palmer, Richard Hannon, Kevin Ryan (12-1 winner on Thursday, though)

Don’t know:  Lucy Wadham (1 from 2 and a 28-1 third)