By Tony Calvin - 20 January 2025
I wouldn’t be best known for my positivity, but you have to tell it as you see it or else what is the point?
Especially when it hits you full square in the face.
Cheltenham’s five-day entries on Saturday are probably the most worrying I’ve seen for a relatively big meeting, numbers-wise, for a long while.
There are just 73 in total for the seven-race card, with 49 for the five ITV races, and I make it that the following number of double-entered horses in the ITV races alone read: 7-3-2-1-3.
And that is before you factor in the possibility of some of the entries waiting for early-closing options in the next fortnight, and indeed some could be confirmed to race on Thursday on Tuesday morning (four of the 73).
And three of the 73 don’t seem to be eligible to race.
See below.
We could yet be looking at none of the five terrestrial races offering 1,2.3 each way betting on the day (for example, the 1.15pm at Cheltenham has 11 eligible entries and six have alternative options this week – it doesn’t look like Inthewaterside, 3s with four firms, is eligible for this along with 9s chance Pic Roc).
Greed may be good, but negativity is far better….
Of course, people will rightly point to the five-star quality in places – most obviously the possibility of a glittering re-match between Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth in the Unibet Hurdle, and East India Dock and Potters Charm strutting their stuff in the first and last respectively (the latter pair’s races may actually be better off on ITV for betting and interest purposes – if their double-figure fields hold up well enough, admittedly) – but it is undeniably thin on the ground.
The highest-rated horse in the Cotswold Chase is 163, and the premier level goes down to 158 in the Cleeve Hurdle, both Grade 2 contests worth 125k and 70k respectively.
The Dublin Racing Festival the week after next casts a big shadow over the Cheltenham Trials Day then (as does the recent Winter Million, if truth be told), and let’s hope the seven Irish horses ( Lossiemouth, Fils d’Oudairies, Gentlesmansgame, Buddy One, Capodanno, Delta Work and the 130-rated handicapper Moon D’Orange) do come over and bolster the numbers and class element of the day.
Buddy One has been confirmed to run at Gowran on Thursday though, as of Tuesday morning, so don’t back that one.
In fact, he hasn’t been assigned a weight by the BHA, so presumably he isn’t eligible, anyway.
Will Lossiemouth (yes, and we know there are two horses called Lossiemouth thanks, and the 134-rated version is actually in the Cleeve Hurdle at 3.35pm) come over or will she stay at home for the Irish Champion Hurdle on Feb 2?
Who knows?
The first firm up with betting on the Unibet Hurdle at 3pm on Monday defensively went [1/5] Constitution Hill and [2/1] Lossiemouth, 20s bar, win-only, in the six-strong race, so that was effectively a “we don’t know either, so go away for now” show.
You can’t really blame them, but why would you even price it up (no-one else has at the moment and with good reason)?
One firm thought they knew something on Wednesday, as they pushed her out to [10/3].
By the way, Lossiemouth is currently the [6/4] ante-post favourite for that Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown.
It is likely to be soft ground at a minimum at Cheltenham on Saturday.
By the way, I went back and did the double-entry stats on the two non-ITV races there and none of those in East India Dock’s Triumph Hurdle trial race at 12.40pm (currently 12 entries) had other weekend options, though five of those in Potters Charm’s race did.
The only other Saturday race priced up at this stage is the early-closing Great Yorkshire handicap at Doncaster at 3.15pm (presumably the meeting hasn’t got a sponsor yet), for which The Changing Man is the general [6/1] favourite.
It is likely to be soft at best at Doncaster too, if the forecasts are correct, and probably heavy in places, especially on the hurdles track.
I’ll be back when more prices appear, and we can get/have a better handle on running plans – and we know what horses have been confirmed for Thursday – probably on Tuesday afternoon.
The going and weather etc, and the double-entries, are below, though.
Hopefully, they give you a headstart of sorts.
I’m good like that.
I’ll briefly take you through 10 races for Saturday, all seven from Cheltenham, and three ITV contests from Donny.
This looks a good Triumph Hurdle trial, and effectively only two bookmakers have priced it up so far (the Flutter group are responsible for three of the four mobs that have, and they have identical prices).
No matter what East India Dock does here he is not going to be grabbing back the mantle of Triumph Hurdle favouritism after what Lulamba did at Ascot on Saturday, but it’ll be a little disappointing if he can’t win this, given the stunning impression he made here in November, both visually and on the clock.
He is [10/11] to win this, but the official figures actually have French recruit Sauvignon, 4s for this, 1lb his superior.
I imagine he cost bundles after winning a Listed race at Auteuil in June, but this race has some depth and he may even struggle to get placed on his first start since June.
A feature of this season is just how many horses have been entered in races they weren’t even eligible to run in, and Inthewaterside and Pic Roc, 3s and 9s respectively when this race was priced up on Monday, are two more in this 2m4f127yd novices’ handicap chase.
Red faces there, and that means this is now effectively an 11-runner race, and six have alternative entries this week.
In their absence Jagwar has shortened into 2s for this, having been 3s in a place on Monday.
If you want to play this race ante-post – and I don’t – then I would simply concentrate on the five remaining horses with nowhere else to go this week.
They are Jagwar, Resplendent Grey, Guard Your Dreams, Ryan’s Rocket and Billytherealbigred.
Just 11 five-day entries for a 100k handicap chase is a sorry state of affairs, let’s make no bones about it.
And three of those could go elsewhere.
Iroko heads up the betting at [7/2] – he was 4s with one bookmaking group on Monday – and I’d agree that this promising chaser, long since touted as a Grand National candidate, should just about be favourite, despite that early fall at Ascot last time.
We have two former winners of this race, Il Ridoto (2023) and Torn And Frayed (2022) in here, but Ginny’s Destiny is down to a mark of 152 now after a Peterborough Chase third time and he surely must go well on a track he has tended to excel at (besides his return in the Paddy Power at a time when some of the stable’s runners were still needing their reappearances).
He is a silly [6/1] in one place – yes, the usual place, with [7/2] the next best – and obviously that is the place to go if you can access it.
The more realistic [7/2] is nothing more than fair at this stage.
The 28s outsider, 11yo Happygolucky, has been given a very fair update by the handicapper on his first start for the impressive Mel Rowley (14 from 83 this season), having been dropped 9lb since last seen in March 2023.
Four of these are double-entered and two of those just happen to be the penalised Bill Joyce and Western Knight, who are the [9/4] and [5/2] market leaders with one firm (the other prominent one in the market, Minella Sixo, is in at the DRF, too).
The other pair with options are Jig’s Forge and Gamesters Guy, best at 11s and 14s respectively.
So potentially this has a very good shape to it for each-way, ante-post punters – if you land on a runner in a much-reduced field come the day.
Ma Shantou, who ranges from [7/2] to 6s in the betting, could be the chief beneficiary if this race does cut up. The 6s is attractive in the circumstances.
From a stable having an excellent season, it sounds like Emma Lavelle expects this progressive 6yo to thrive at this new 3m trip.
There is rain and wind forecast for Friday, and the track is racing then, too. That isn’t going to be a positive for Saturday’s surface.
L’Homme Presse has 8lb and more in hand of these on adjusted official ratings, so little wonder he ranges between [5/4] and [6/4] for this.
Whether or not he ideally wants 3m1f56yd in worsening ground is obviously the main question he has to answer – and the stable could be in a lot better form, though they had a couple of shorties win on Tuesday – but the Gold Cup fourth and King George third is the clear class angle in this, and gets weight to boot, and I’d say [6/4] was a fair assessment of his chance on a track on which he is two from three, with the Gold Cup obviously the other Cheltenham outing in question.
Dashel Drasher and Ga Law are also in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster on Saturday.
No double-entry concerns if you fancy the market leaders here, and as such I have no real issue with the prices.
Let’s move on, then.
At best prices, it is [2/7] Constitution Hill playing [5/2] Lossiemouth, with 14s Brentford Hope heading up the rest.
There really is no point in getting involved here at it stands until we know if the Irish contender is travelling over, or staying at home for the DRF.
Lossiemouth is currently [10/3] , but I don’t know why bookmakers have priced this up, for obvious reasons.
Hopefully, we get a field of three or four anyway, as there is money all the way down to sixth, with 13.3K+ for 6.6k+ for third and fourth respectively.
Willie Mullins: “Lossiemouth set off at about two and a half or even three-mile pace (at Kempton) and she did well to finish as close as she did. We’d been settling her all the time and she just couldn’t handle the pace because that is what we’d been teaching her.
“To me the race was gone before she hit the first hurdle. She wasn’t competitive. I thought she ran well given what we’d been teaching her the last couple of years. We’ll sharpen her up at home. It will be different the next day. We haven’t decided on her next engagement, she’s in at Cheltenham and Leopardstown and we’ll have a war council in the next 24 hours and decide.”
The weights will go up 11lb here if Ga Law and Dashel Drasher don’t go, but we currently only have two out of the handicap, by just 1lb and 3lb respectively, so that would be no big deal.
Six of the 23 hold double entries this week – Mackenberg is due to run at Wetherby on Thursday, so definitely don’t back him ante-post – so tread carefully with those.
Erne River probably appealed most at the bigger prices at a general 25s after a fair , confidence-boosting, run over hurdles here last time but my first instinct was that this was very much a race I can leave alone until I know the final fields, and get a better handle on the weather (see below)
If the ground doesn’t get too bad on the chase course to really test his stamina (and he has form on soft too, so maybe I am nit-picking there) then the 8s about Forward Plan could be good ante-post business.
The more I thought about, the more I couldn’t resist.
He is in fair nick, he has excellent course form, and he was only denied by a nose in this race last season.
I wouldn’t lay the 8s, available in three places, so I played small.
Buddy One is due to run at Gowran Park on Thursday, and it seems he wasn’t even eligible for this anyway (though I am not sure why), as he wasn’t allotted a weight by the BHA on Tuesday – I am not sure why these things can’t be picked up pre-entry and save everyone the hassle – so I don’t know why he is still being quoted by bookmakers (he was as short as [7/2] on Monday).
Crambo and Strong Leader (the latter has had a wind op since his Ascot blow-out, apparently) are vying for favouritism here – best-priced at 2s and [5/2] respectively – but I reckon both could be vulnerable under their 6lb penalties.
Ga Law has two other options this weekend, so I thought Gowel Road looked an outstanding each way bet here, three places, at [13/2] in on spot and a more generally available 6s (in five places).
He will need to improve if the big two run to their best, despite getting 6lb from them, but you can set your watch by this guy, he loves it here and probably comes off a career-best behind Lucky Place in the Relkeel last time.
There is a lot of seeming dead wood in this – three horses are rated in the 130s, though that could be a touch dismissive given the form horses can easily be taken on at their prices – and 6s looks an outstanding each way play, even if a combination of 3m in soft ground may tax his stamina.
There is a lot of rain forecast for Friday (see below), with a yellow weather wind warning to boot.
I could also see the case for Botox Has at 16s each way too, even if he has been running poorly.
This is yet another example of why double-entries are crucial to relay to your readers – and I am surprised that two bookmaker outfits (though four firms have odds) have priced it up.
Potters Charm is evens to maintain his unbeaten record here, which looks fair enough (even if connections said he would go straight to Cheltenham after he won at Aintree on Boxing Day), especially as the [3/1] second favourite Bill Joyce is also in the River Don at Doncaster on Saturday, as is 8s poke Western Knight and 20s chance Jig’s Forge.
Gamesters Guy and Diva Luna (just confirmed for Sandown on Friday so don’t back that one ante-post ) are others who could go elsewhere this week, so maybe Good And Clever, third to Potters Charm last time and for whom the step up in trip looks set to suit, is an okay each way bet at 16s given the possible shape of the race to come Saturday.
But he, too, has another option in the near future – in a Grade 1 at the DRF.
A messy picture at this stage.
I ended up backing Gowel Road each way ,and Forward Plan, to start the punting week.
Going – Good, good to soft in places
Going stick reading : 6.2 (Wednesday 9.30am)
Weather: 4.1mm Thursday; 11mm Friday
Thursday course update: “1mm of rainfall in the last 15 days. Showers forecast for late morning on Thursday (2-3mm). Strong winds and heavy rain overnight and through the early hours of Friday and into the morning (8-15mm). Dry through Friday afternoon and into Saturday with sunny intervals and only a risk of a light shower.”
Rails
Chase rail +9y Hurdle rail +8y
Going – Chase: Good to soft, good in places; Hurdle: Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick readings – Chase: 6.0 ; Hurdle: 5.7 (7.30am Thursday)
Weather: 5.5mm Thursday; 7mm Friday; light showers Saturday, if any
Thursday course update: “0.6mm rain Monday 0mm Tues 1.6mm Weds Thursday – Rain, potentially turning heavy through the afternoon – 7C Friday – Rain early morning potentially heavy at times. Clearing from mid morning. Strong winds, yellow warning in place at moment – 8C No concerns at present but monitoring situation.”
Rails: Shared bends Fresh ground on bends both days. Exact distances confirmed
1.15pm Cheltenham: Imperial Saint, Masaccio, Petit Tonnerre, Pic Roc, Rock My Way, Walking On Air, Whistle Stop Tour
1.50pm Cheltenham: Grandeur D’Ame, Imperial Saint, Torn And Frayed
NB: Gemirande is in Scottish Champion Chase on Feb 1
2.05pm Doncaster: Bill Joyce, Gamesters Guy, Jig’s Forge,, Western Knight
NB: Minella Sixo is also in early closer on Feb 1
2.25pm Cheltenham: Dashel Drasher, Ga Law
NB: Gentlesmansgame is in early-closer on Feb 1
2.40pm Doncaster: Malaita (confirmed for Huntingdon on Thursday), Salsada, Springtime Promise (confirmed for Huntingdon on Thursday),, The Lord Maid
3pm Cheltenham: NONE now Joyeux Machin not confirmed for a Thursday race
NB: Brentford Hope is in an early-closer on Feb 8, Fils D’oudairies is in two early-closers on Feb 2, Lossiemouth is in early closer on Feb 2, Spirits Bay is in an early closer on Feb 8
3.15pm Doncaster: Ga Law, Dashel Drasher, Grandeur D’Ame, Mackenberg (confirmed for Wetherby on Thursday), Torn And Frayed, Walking On Air
NB: Arizona Cardinal is in early closer on Feb 1
3.35pm Cheltenham: Buddy One (confirmed for Gowran on Thursday, so very unlikely runner – very unlikely, in fact, as he appears to be ineligible), Ga Law
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