TONY CALVIN: WHAT kind of betting hell is this…?

Three small-field Group races and an 18-runner 3yo 6f handicap, with the field, probably in about three groups, spread across the July course.

What kind of ITV betting hell is this?

And that is without factoring in the not inconsiderable factor of the heavy watering on the July course.

As you can see below, they have not missed with the watering can (they stuck on another 5mm on Wednesday).

They never do here and, as a result, the July course has historically been one of the most inaccurate in the country when it comes to their going reports.

Mind you, that was under previous clerk Michael Prosser, who retired in 2023, and the impressively-open Andrew Morris has been in the chair since.

1.50pm – Scandinavia could well oblige, but current price leaves me cold

There were just six in here at the five-day stage, so this is a result of a turnout, though Scandinavia (chosen ahead of stablemate Galveston) and Titanium Emperor were only put in at 9.58am on Tuesday.

I have no betting opinion at the current prices, in a race where five relatively lightly-raced 3yos are separated by just 5lb on official figures, but can see why they are putting some headgear on Scandinavia and that may enable him to make up the ½-length he was behind Furthur, the initial favourite, in the Queen’s Vase.

Scandinavia got outpaced coming round the final bend at Ascot and didn’t look to be too willing for Wayne Lordan, until picking up again, very encouragingly, late on.

If the cheekpieces make him more tractable (and if they don’t, Ryan Moore, on board for the first time, probably will) then he has a decent winning chance here – and this track may help him get into top gear earlier, too – but it is not something I would bet on.

And certainly not now Scandinavia’s price has been slashed.

He was [5/2] on Tuesday morning but the firm that offered that were only [5/4] by 6.45pm that day, and he started Wednesday as a best-priced [7/4] shot – and he was trading at [2.6] at the time – and as low as [11/10] in places.

He was soon into [11/8].

O’Brien’s record with initial cheekpieces isn’t great though. See below.

2.25pm – Jel Pepper – if you really pushed me…but no bet, in reality

Brussels was the last horse to be confirmed for this Group 2 July Stakes on Tuesday morning, and I bet that was the last name his five rivals wanted to see in the race.

It could well be that Aidan O’Brien’s patience will pay off with this once-raced Curragh maiden winner – the second and third have won since – and the trainer’s comments after that win would give you plenty of encouragement.

That said, he never – ever – talks any of his horses down, and why would he, I guess?

Every comment could find itself on the back of a sales catalogue.

He said: “Ryan said Brussels was very babyish, he’s never been away. He will come forward a lot for it and all these horses are running with Ascot in mind but Ryan said it might come too quick because he was so babyish. We’ll see how much he comes on. He said he’d have no problem getting seven and he’s a massive, big, powerful horse.”

But you now have to pay a premium to get with him at [15/8] here – he opened up at [5/2] on Tuesday, which was taken, as was the Wednesday [9/4] and [2/1]  – against a much better calibre of opposition.

It clearly wouldn’t be a massive surprise if he went off favourite ahead of Maximised, though. You never can tell with these O’Brien 2yos, as we saw at Royal Ascot – unless you have a privileged inside line.

Outside of impressive Salisbury maiden winner Zavateri (and his trainer said they would come to this meeting immediately after that win), all of the rest have a similar level of form attached to their names.

Coventry runner-up Do Or Do Not boasts marginally the best form (he looks big at 7-1+ on the exchanges), but the unbeaten Jel Pepper and Maximised are snapping at his heels.

At the current prices, [10/1] chance Jel Pepper makes a touch more appeal than Woodcote winner Maximised  at [13/8] (the latter dealt with the subsequent Windsor Castle winner Havana Hurricane in style at Epsom) as he did look a fair tool when winning on his debut at Goodwood, even if the runner-up got humped at [2/5] next time.

But I wouldn’t dream of having a bet myself, in truth, and I certainly wouldn’t rule out the [18/1] outsider Zavateri.

3pm – One of the hottest 6f 3yo handicaps around – and it ain’t easy to solve

Double Rush is a big NR in this (11.26am; going).

For many, this will be the only betting race on the ITV schedule on Thursday.

Not me for though. I’m blanking the whole offering as the current odds stand, especially as 18 horses spread across the heavily-watered July course is not for me.

Remarkably. Crestofdistinction went up 16lb for his wide-margin at Wolverhampton at the end of last month, so he is actually 10lb well-in here under a 6lb penalty.

If you go along with the assessor, then the opening 14s and 12s (three firms, one outfit) would appear to have been rather generous.

It was; he is now 8s, best.

What were the odds-compilers thinking of by initially sticking him in at double-figure prices?

I get that he could well go off at [10/1] and bigger once the serious money arrives on Thursday afternoon – and he has to do it on turf now (0-2 on turf, 2-3 on all-weather) – but they were only going to attract one-way trade (I know fixed-odds firms can’t get two-way trade on a single horse, but you know what I mean…) at 14s and 12s given his form set-up?

As I mentioned on the Smart Bash podcast, I am always a bit suspicious of these outlandish prices being offered up in a very narrow window.

But I better leave it there….

Elsewhere, you have to think Realign will be far better suited by reverting to 6f here after his Royal Ascot eclipse over 5f.

He opened up at 8s on Tuesday morning, and I am touch surprised that remains the general price, with [15/2], six places, available with one firm.

If you can access it.

I can fully see why that [15/2] would be attractive, for all this is about as deep a 3yo 6f handicap as you will find.

Pre-meeting, there was chat that William Haggas would have rather rolled the dice with him over 6f in the Commonwealth Cup rather than gone for the 5f Palace Of Holywoodhouse handicap – he was clearly worried about the trip in a pre-race interview – and he possibly ran as if the distance was too sharp for him.

Up to 6f again, and down 1lb, he could be a major player but maybe I am in danger of getting hoodwinked by the Ascot chat (he went off [7/2] there) rather than confronting the reality that he is possibly underpriced at 8s on the bare form.

But he is clearly a sexy option.

Outside of him, gun to my head – and you’d have to convince me it is loaded – maybe Zayer is the best option I have seen.

Well, he possibly was, when he opened at 14s first show on Tuesday, though he has hardly been trimmed in much to a general 12s.

However, I see he is trading at [20.0] on Betfair as this goes live, and that may be draw-related.

And that was the one big possible/probable negative about his chance that made him a walkaway.

He is housed in four and, looking at the pace map below, I’d definitely prefer to be middle to high.

He shaped as though a return to 6f would suit when a strong-finishing fourth over the minimum trip at Royal Ascot (ahead of Realign) but it’s about a lukewarm lean as you will hear from me.

In fact, it’s about as hollow as you will get too, as I am not having a bet here, as all the current prices stand.

Let’s see how I feel when the market finally beefs up 10 minutes before off-time.

Probably very much the same, I would have thought.

But if I am not betting myself, I am not recommending you do.

And we do have the potential affect of the watering to contend with, as well.

That is a proper Henry Cooper splash-it-all-over job.

3.35pm – Ghostwriter needs to turn to a winning page here

Another race where thankfully five of the six were confirmed on Tuesday, with Military Academy (in at York on Saturday) the only no-show.

Again, a five-runner Group 2 makes limited betting appeal but Kia is going to be one unhappy bunny if his eve-of-Royal Ascot £2m purchase Ghostwriter can’t take advantage of this winning opportunity.

He is no win machine (in fact, he hasn’t scored since an unbeaten juvenile campaign which included a success here) but his body of work since , from 1m to 1m4f, surely makes him the one to beat here.

He seemed to stay well enough – but I am still not sold this is his best trip – when third over this trip in the Hardwicke last time, and a reproduction of that performance should be good enough to put these to bed (he also doesn’t carry a penalty for his Group 2 win juvenile win).

The opening 2s about him was fair enough, and he has been trimmed into [15/8], in one place only. I’d probably decline to lay that [15/8]. If asked.

Wimbledon Hawkeye, best at 4s, could be his chief threat getting the whopping 12lb age allowance.

A day off from punting is rarely a bad thing.

Good luck, all.

STATS AND INFO SECTION – updated 6.35am Thursday 

NEWMARKET

Going: Good to firm, good in places

Going stick: 6.9 Thursday, 6am

Thursday  morning course update: 5mm of rain on Sunday. Forecast: Dry, with daytime high temps increasing to 27c for Thu and 28c for Fri and Sat.

Watering history: 45mm applied since Friday, further 5mm applied to the July Course on Wednesday (final 1m).

Weather: largely dry and very warm

Rails:  Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All Other Races – Inside

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STAT

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Scandinavia 150pm; 9-90 (since 2016)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.50pm: Furthur (prom), Scandinavia (prom), Titanium Emperor (prom)

2.25pm: Brussels (prom), Comical Point, Maximized (prom)

3pm: The Strikin Viking (drawn 8), Hallasan (prom – 10), Hucklesbrook (17), Candy (3), Tawasol (12), Realign (16), Marchogian (15), Crestofdistinction (9), Double Rush (11), Prince Of India (prom – 5), Azure Zain (18), American Style (14)

3.35pm: Arabian Crown, Ghostwriter (prom), Palladium

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Andrew Balding (very good), Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, Jack Channon, Aidan O’Brien

Fair: James Owen, Clive Cox, John and Thady Gosden, Tom Clover, Hamad Al Jehani, Archie Watson, Richard Spencer, Richard Fahey, Charles Hills, James Fanshawe, Ed Walker, Eve Johnson Houghton, Richard Hannon, Simon and Ed Crisford, Kevin Ryan, Karl Burke

Moderate: Roger Teal, Marco Botti (few have run okay though, one beaten a nose), Adrian Murray (a lot have been big prices but it’d a concern to me)

Don’t know: Paul and Oliver Cole