TONY CALVIN: WEEKEND watch with double entries and a 25s poke – all seven Saturday races now touched upon

MONDAY INTRO

There were 41 in the Coral-Eclipse on Monday morning, at which point Ombudsman ranged between [5/4] and [6/4] at the top of the market, with Sosie at [7/2], Camille Pissarro at [11/2], and 8s bar.

We now have 11, and all three of the above market leaders remained in the race.

There were no surprise absentees, in fact.

The 11 are: Almaqam, Anmaat, Ombudsman, Sosie, White Birch, Camille Pissarro, Delacroix,  Expanded, Hotazhell, Ruling Court and Stanhope Gardens.

Aidan O’Brien put in his Expanded literally in the final minute of the confirmation stage at 11.59am.

I’d say the course and sponsors are absolutely delighted with that field at the five-day stage.

With the field holding up very well, the favourite has drifted to [13/8], with Sosie out to [9/2] and Camille Pissarro [13/2].

I’m not sure if Ombudsman has been handed a revised official mark since his incredibly impressive 2-length defeat of the 123-rated Anmaat at Royal Ascot, but he is the clear ratings top dog on that effort.

More on this tomorrow.

3.35pm Sandown – The Coral-Eclipse

And tomorrow has become today (Tuesday)…

I suppose your first approach to this ante-post race has to be what horses will turn up on what nature alone would have dictated was firm ground.

Of course, I imagine most will be expecting a mixture of good and good to firm ground with Sandown watering heavily (and likely to do again throughout the week, perhaps including on Friday evening after racing – current details below), and that may tempt the likes of connections of Almaqam and Sosie in.

I would imagine White Birch is an unlikely runner, but the extent of the watering will dictate a lot, as I said above.

And they may chance their arm at Sandown, having declined the invitation to run on good to firm at Ascot.

And, as per Wednesday, and the trainer’s interview on the Nick Luck Daily podcast, it looks like White Birch is staying at home.

But things change, I guess.

The reason why Almaqam is available at 12s is because of the weather and the possibility of him also swerving the race on the ground (he is also in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes at Newmarket next week) because the form of his 1 3/4 -length defeat of Ombudsman (albeit the runner-up was giving him 3lb there) in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes would entitle him to be half that price.

I’d hold off backing him.

The Racing Post reports:

Walker, whose full thoughts will be available in his Racing Post Weekender column on Wednesday, said: “Good ground would be fine for Almaqam, but if there’s firm in the description I’d be reluctant to run him, especially in that grade of race.”

Sosie has never raced on anything quicker than good ground according to Timeform, though they say it was good when he won the Ganay in April.

I don’t’ think there is a bet in the race at this stage, with Ombudsman (now rated 128, I see) casting a big form shadow over this race after that stunning 2-length defeat of Anmaat in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes.

That [13/8] is lingering in one place, and I suspect it won’t last Tuesday morning.

Aidan O’Brien stuck Expanded in this at the last minute, presumably as a possible pacemaker for either Camille Pissarro and Delacroix, or maybe both. I have no idea of their running plans.

Given the 3yos get 10lb, the temptation would be run both surely – the 3yos have the last four renewals, with O’Brien responsible for three of those – and Camille Pissarro looks a fair [13/2] chance, available in five places as I post this, after his French Derby success.

He has come a long way in a short space of time since being beaten in a Listed race in late March, and that [13/2] could be coming under pressure soon. I imagine the market will know what Ryan Moore may be riding before we do.

Derby fifth Stanhope Gardens may be running over his best trip here (his run tapered off a bit late on after a good move down the straight), but the 25s chance has a lot to find on the book, and I suppose Anmaat, currently trading in the 20s in a very illiquid exchange market on Betfair, may be the pick of the prices.

Hands up, I wouldn’t be a particular fan of the jockey and there were plenty who thought Jim Crowley went too early at Royal Ascot, only be scythed down by Ombudsman, and I wouldn’t lay the 20s+.

But those who ran at Ascot, and reappear on this card, would all have had a hard race (even the jolly here), so that’s a concern.

And the betting vibes suggest maybe Anmaat will not show up on Saturday.

Oh, and I have no idea if 16s poke Ruling Court is set to run, either.

1.50pm Sandown – no need to Charge just yet

None of these are entered elsewhere this week, so I’d personally hold fire on betting on this 5f Group 3 and wait and see what happens with the draw etc.

It is currently 5s the field, which brings in She’s Quality, but seven others are trading in single figures with one firm.

2.25pm Sandown – One-eyed or not, but Julia is surely too big at 25s

One of the things you have to guard against when discussing, and betting, on races is falling into the trap of being one-eyed, sub-consciously or not, and siding with horses you are familiar with, while ignoring the others.

I guess you can also call it as being lazy.

It is why I am no fan of trackers, the bookmakers’ friend. They encourage complacency.

So, doing my best impersonation of a Cyclop, I was immediately drawn to Julia Augusta at a general 25s here…

I have backed her on both of her starts this season.

She was a big drifter for her reappearance when a cracking third at Epsom and then I went with her again at Royal Ascot, despite fears that she was drawn away from the pace.

And those fears were realized.

Now, I am not saying she would have won that Kensington Palace handicap, as that would be silly.

But had she been drawn higher then she would have finished a lot, lot closer than a 8 ¾-length tenth, given the way she finished off after being detached, on the far side. for all of the race. She humped all the horses she raced with there.

The handicapper unfortunately thinks that was a noteworthy effort too, as he/she (I don’t know if the BHA employs female handicappers) left her on the same mark of 97, but that still looks exploitable on her two Group race efforts at Ascot on quick ground last season, after which she was rated 101.

And, obviously, that run last time, too.

There are negatives, of course there are – the stable is having one of its quiet spells, she has never raced at Sandown before and we could get a full field of 17 on the day, so a poor draw again is possible (if she runs, that is) – but I do think the general 25s is too big, however blinkered I am being.

That 25s is available with 14 firms as I hit publish (the column appears immediately, and is tweeted seconds afterwards) and I think 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4 make her an each-way bet.

I will stress that I have no idea if she is an intended runner.

3pm Sandown – Kon Tiki won’t be drifting from 7s (sorry)

I thought Kon Tiki was too big at 7s in a place here (6s in a couple of other places) as she didn’t particularly get the run of the race in the Coronation Stakes last time and this is an obvious step down in grade.

Looking at this field, I’d have her disputing favouritism, as she had earlier impressed at York, too.

2.05pm Haydock – I’ll revisit on Thursday onwards

I am happy to come back to this on Saturday.

It looks a very tricky 100k 3yo 1m6f handicap, for all there are only 17 entries for a race that could take that many on the day.

Pendragon, as short as [9/2], has been confirmed for Sandown on Friday . Deep Water Bay won at Chelmsford on Tuesday.

2.40pm Haydock – 7/1 Scenic has a good outlook – especially if the favourite is a ground no-show

Just the seven five-day entries for a 125k pot.

I am surprised five firms (effectively three) have priced the Lancashire Oaks up, as there surely is a fair doubt about [4/7] favourite Estrange running if it is good to firm ground – mind you, Haydock have started watering and there are showers through the week, possibly getting a touch heavier on Friday night/Saturday morning – and bookies could well pull the market if they small a rat in their kitchen.

In addition, Beechwood, Love Talk, Nuit, Shaha and You Got To Me are all entered in early-closers next week.

That would lead me straight to Scenic (just bought by Wathnan Racing) at 7s. She needs to improve again to win this (and she probably won’t if Estrange runs) but she did it well at York last time and looks the safest betting conveyance at this stage.

But I can’t get the 7s myself, so up to you.

3.15pm Haydock – A Pass for now, too

I’m happy to leave this 150k 1m4f handicap alone for now.

Sir Lowry’s Pass heads the betting at 6s and you’d imagine he would run here given the money on offer. The step up to 1m4f promises to suit, too.

DOUBLE ENTRIES (pay particular attention to horses in bold)

1.50pm Sandown (13 entries: 17 maximum):  NONE

2.05pm Haydock (17; 17): Deep Water Bay won by 2 lengths at Chelmsford on Tuesday, Pendragon confirmed for Sandown on Friday

2.25pm Sandown (24; 17): Aafoor, Ancient Rome, Galeron, Jeff Koons has been confirmed to run at Sandown on Friday, (Greek Order, Mirsky, Tarkhan, Treasure Time and Tribal Chief are in early-closers next week)

2.40pm Haydock (7: 17): NONE (Beechwood, Love Talk, Nuit, Shaha and You Got To Me are in early closers next week)

3pm Sandown (15; 17): NONE (Celestial Orbit, Pina Sonata and Kon Tiki are in at Newmarket next week)

3.15pm Haydock (23: 17): Chillingham, Kitty Furnival due to run at Kempton on Thursday, Minstrel Knight, My Dream World, Teumessias Fox (City Of Delight, Great Bedwyn, Humble Spark, Maxi King, Mount Atlas, Paddy The Squire, Sir Lowry’s Pass, Sportingsilvermine and Stressfree are in early closers next week)

3.35pm Sandown (11; 17): NONE. Almaqam is in at Newmarket next week

WEEKEND GOING AND WEATHER – updated 8.30am Thursday

SANDOWN (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Good, good to firm in places

Going stick – Round: 7.2; Straight: 6.5 (Thursday 7.45am)

Thursday course update: 2mm rain last Friday morning. Dry and hot since. 32 degrees Monday with ET of 4.2mm. 34 degrees Tuesday with ET of 3.8mm. 1mm rain Wednesday. Dry Thursday and Friday, 25 and 27 degrees.

Watering history: 5mm applied to both courses Monday. 3mm applied Tuesday pm to Round Course. 2.5mm selective watering of Round Course Thursday, 2.5 to 3mm.

Weather: Looks to be dry, maybe odd shower

Rails:  Sprint Course rail 2 yards in from Far Side. Round Course rail on Innermost configuration.

Stalls: Sprint Course – Far Side Remainder – Inside

HAYDOCK (three-day meeting starting on Thursday)

Going – Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: 7.1, Thursday 7am

Soil moisture average: 41%

Thursday morning course update: ET rate 13.91mm last 7 days. Outlook dry with sunshine. Temperatures peaked 29.6°c on Monday, returning to 22°c for the rest of the week. Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

Watering: 5mm circuit Tuesday. Selective areas 1m4f & straight on Wednesday to maintain.

Weather: light showers, if anything, Wed/Thu; rain  late Friday/early Saturday (maybe 6-7mm)

Rails: All races will run on the outer rack, with a drop in at the entry to the home straight.

Stalls: 5f, 6f & 1m4f: Centre 7f & 1m6f: Inside