By Tony Calvin - 17 February 2025
Two big, valuable handicaps with healthy five-day field sizes, and a relatively dry weather forecast on top of current, decent ground.
Things, then, are looking positive for competitive racing for the old Racing Post Chase at Kempton (150k pot) – sorry Ladbrokes – and the Eider at Newcastle (80k) – apologies, Virgin Bet – on Saturday.
They had 31 and 33 in those races on Monday morning, and after the noon confirmation stage we still have 18 (one horse was confirmed and then pulled out again around 11.45am here) and 22 respectively.
They could have been even deeper, I guess – maximum field sizes are 20 and 18 – but that’s a decent early win to my eyes, in the current struggle for numbers.
And especially so at Newcastle where we could have that lesser-spotted beast; a full field with balloted out horses.
And last weekend’s 100k 3m handicap chase at Ascot took a fair few away from Kempton on Saturday, notably Victtorino, so they did well, too.
And, as you can see below, double-entries are minimal this week, thankfully.
At Newcastle there was only one notable no-show, and that was expected. Git Maker was as low as 6s in a place in the ante-post betting, but he finished fourth in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on Saturday.
Obviously, we continue to get pretty disappointing numbers elsewhere in the non-handicaps, especially in the novices’ chases, but they will have their share of interest, too.
Anyway, I’ve just done the double-entries for the ITV races below (somehow Southwell all-weather action has crept into the coverage, though I imagine I, and plenty of others, will betting-boycott that at this time of the year….) and I’ll be back later on Tuesday with a final sweep of everything.
With Gidleigh Park having to miss the race after suffering a setback, we only have eight entries (two of which have alternative engagements this week),
This is a very tricky race to call in his absence, not least because Jingko Blue has been put in here despite unseating his jockey at the third in the 3m Reynoldstown Chase on Saturday and running loose.
He is the highest-rated in here on 151 (albeit one carrying a 5lb penalty for his Grade 2 win at Windsor, as do Ashdale Bob, Boombawn and Mark Of Gold) but I imagine they will leave it late until making a call on his participation.
Rubaud excelled himself in the Kingmaker and he is likely to get his ground (or at least it shouldn’t be too bad) but he has yet to race beyond 2m1f in his career so far, and it strikes as if he is coming here for the winnable pot, as much as to the suitability of the contest.
But perhaps that is how it should be when these small-field races – and this one carries a 75k pot – present themselves, and there is only one way to find out if he stays. And Rubaud is the form choice here getting 5lb.
It’s an open race, and Jessie Harrington has entered her 10yo Ashdale Bob.
He didn’t take to chasing at in 2021 but he is doing better this time around with two successes, bue we haven’t seen him since August so only those in the Harrington camp know how straight he is.
The first betting I saw made Jingko Blue the [6/4] favourite, with the next to follow installing him a [7/4] poke. Rubaud is top at [9/4], with Imperial Saint at 3s.
Tentative stuff.
It is difficult to imagine a horse with a better Eider profile than O’Connell, and he fully deserves his position at the top of the market at [6/1].
I wouldn’t lay it.
The 9yo has poured it on late when winning at Market Rasen and Sandown on his last two starts, looking for all the world that he is going to continue to improve the further he goes.
And he is going up to 4m1f56yd here.
The potential negatives are that he has gone up 22lb for his three recent successes, and he does still have that ultra-stamina to rubber-stamp, plus the fact that he has to prove he is as effective going left-handed.
On the stamina front, after his win over an extended 3m3f at Market Rasen in December, connections said: “I don’t think you could find a trip too far for him” and on the visuals and run-style you’d be hard-pressed to disagree.
Alan King has a couple of decent contenders in Major Dundee (a 4m2f Midlands Grand National winner) and Egbert, but I’d recommend backing them in the day-of-race market on Thursday morning (if they are confirmed) rather than ante-post.
The trainer is testing all his horses at the moment, after having a lot of his team having the sniffles since having their winter flu injections, so he will be probably be making a late call on their participation.
That said, reading his Weekender column this week, it looks like he is much happier with his team now, with none coughing.
A few of these are in the Devon National at Exeter on Friday, so I’d steer clear of those for now (Jacks Parrot, Gold Clermont, Passing Well and Sporting Ace) , but last year’s winner Anglers Crag (beat Prince Des Fichaux a neck) and Wincanton winner Collectors Item have obvious claims and are priced accordingly.
UPDATE: Jacks Parrot and Gold Clermont have been confirmed for Exeter on Friday, so do not back them.
If you are looking for a formline that could be of interest come Saturday, check out the race here last month won by If Not For Dylan, as the three that followed him home – Choosethenews (jumping let him down up the straight), Lord Roco and Jacks Parrot – are all in here.
And if you want a near-guaranteed stayer I guess Ilikedwayurthinkin at 16s isn’t a bad proposition, having won over 3m6f here in November and who shaped okay over 3m last time after a subsequent break.
It was commonplace to see a shedload of horses in both the Adonis and Dovecote on this card, but it is a sign of the times that only one has been given an entry in both – and that is only Las Canals, having his debut for the Greenall and Guerriero partnership, having had his sole start in France in November.
At least it makes it a touch easier for bookmakers to price this race, though I doubt whether Nicky Henderson is going to pitch his Triumph Hurdle favourite Lulamba (carrying a 5lb penalty along with Sauvignon and St Pancras) and his Classic-winning, 1.4m euros acquisition Palladium against each other.
He may do, I guess, but the problem the layers have is they can’t price this up with any confidence at all.
If I were a bookmaker, I would not have priced this up. Hiding to nothing territory.
One bet from a connected, media-based account getting favourable treatment (or perhaps a marker account, if they still exist), and they will soon fight very shy.
It’s an interesting enough race – and surely expensive French purchases Mambonumberfive and Sauvignon are far better than they showed in the same Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle Trial last month – so let’s hope that at least one of the Hendo duo rocks up.
And if the 111-rated Flat performer Mondo Man, beaten 3 ½ lengths by Lulamba at Ascot, getting 10lb, settles better, then he could make a Cheltenham/Aintree mark, too.
Henderson’s two make this one a non-betting race at this stage, though. The first mob up go; Evens Lulamba, [7/4] Palladium, [9/4] Mondo Man and 8s bar.
If Nicholas relies on just Palladium, I’d be very keen to oppose him, though.
He said: “They are both in the Adonis at Kempton Park on Saturday. Lulamba is terribly well and he would have to have a racecourse gallop. I’m thinking the other fella is good at what he does. Lulamba has only had two runs in his life. They are both going to work tomorrow then we will decide.”
Mondo Man is now just a best-priced [8/11], with Lulamba 2s and Palladium at [7/2].
And Opec has been shortened into 4s……
Why did anyone bother to price this up?
I’m not quite sure why this fixture was transferred to Southwell from Lingfield, but this is the second year away from Leafy, with Diligent Harry winning this 5f Listed contest last season.
He is back for more here, but I’d have a bigger bugle than Cyrano De Bergerac (not the horse) if I said I was interested in this.
Marshman, who carries a 3lb penalty, is the early jolly at 2s, with Diligent Harry at 3s, though AKBets can’t split the pair at [9/4].
This is another tricky race to call but Chris Gordon, winner of this race in 2020 and 2022, is back for more with Andashan, an impressive winner of a maiden hurdle here recently.
It wasn’t a great race but the clock said it was a very decent performance from the front, so he is clearly one to note (though he is priced up a mere 6s in the early heat of battle).
Mind you, with just nine entries and no form stand-out, they all are.
The official ratings would point you towards Miami Magic (7/4 favourite in the very early scores, but as big as [9/4] elsewhere) and Roadlesstravelled (maybe not him, as he carries a 5lb penalty), but I genuinely think any of the nine could win this, even if Las Canals and Blues Singer are obviously harder to fancy than the rest, hence they are the rags at 33s.
If you asked me for the best bet at this stage, Sam Thomas’ Celtic Dino (more of that trainer shortly) is probably the pick at the 7s (8s went on Tuesday morning), even with a 3lb penalty.
No double-entries, but still no betting interest in this 1m3f Group 3 Winter Derby.
Don’t get me wrong it is a pretty high-level offering, with the likes of Royal Champion and Military Academy in here, but it doesn’t excite me at all.
Which is hardly surprising, as I haven’t seen anyone price this up yet.
They are up now though, with AKBets making Royal Champion their [5/4] favourite over Military Academy at [7/4], with the other main form horse, Persica, at [7/2].
The Grand National weights are out, so we could actually see some Aintree horses not only running, but trying their hearts out, now.
From last Tuesday onwards, in fact.
So step forward National entries Iroko, Hyland and Kandoo Kid here, priced up (at the best odds available, if not necessarily accessible to some) at [7/2], [9/2] and [9/1].
You have to agree that [7/2] poke Iroko is the one to beat here, though I am not sure if the Grand National Weights lunch hosts Ed Chamberlin and Jane Mangan would have been discussing his Cheltenham run last time in too much detail on the stage last week…..
The stewards on the day certainly enquired (before noting the run and explanation) as he wasn’t given a hard time at all in finishing fourth.
In fact, I have included the stewards’ report in full below, for your perusal.
“An enquiry was held into the running and riding of IROKO (IRE) ridden by Jonjo O’Neill Jr. and trained by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero, which raced in mid-field before improving under tender handling from turning in to finish fourth beaten 5 lengths. The rider was interviewed and shown recordings of the race; the Veterinary Officer examined the gelding post-race during routine testing and had nothing to report. O’Neill Jr. stated that his instructions were to sit mid-field and to try to get the gelding jumping, having felt that IROKO (FR) had lost his confidence after falling in his previous run at Ascot, adding that he had formed this opinion having schooled the gelding at home. The rider reported that the IROKO (IRE) had made a mistake at the third last fence, causing him to lose his left iron, and having regained the stirrup O’Neill Jr. found himself stuck to the inside of HAPPYGOLUCKY (IRE), leaving him unable to improve his position until after the second last fence. O’Neill continued that IROKO (FR) had felt in top gear throughout the race and that the geldings jumping had suffered late on as a result, leading to him jumping the last fence slowly. He finished by stating that when taking all of the above into account, he felt that he felt his hands and heels riding up the straight led to him obtaining the best possible placing. O’Neill Jr’s explanation was noted.”
The step up to 3m for the first time since his Aintree Grade 1 second last April is an obvious plus, and you get the distinct impression that a mark of 152 is just scratching the surface with this 7yo.
I know it is not very helpful, but I am struggling to see beyond him at this stage from a win-only perspective.
You can probably wait to back until he is confirmed, or not, on Thursday morning, though at his current odds.
In fact, I definitely would wait.
Nick Luck has tweeted (at 10.30am on Tuesday) that Iroko may wait until Kelso the following week if the ground continues to dry out (though there is some rain forecast on Thursday and Friday now – see below).
One outfit (two firms) knocked him out to 5s on the back of this.
But let’s have no jokes about Luck being responsible for knocking one out on a Tuesday morning, thank you very much.
Main market rival Hyland looks fairly handicapped off 147, as does fellow novice Lowry’s Bar, top-priced at 8s in a place.
The latter is in at Warwick on Friday (though it turns out he isn’t eligible for this), and the illiquid exchange betting suggests he isn’t going to Kempton either (I may have missed a story there), and Dan Overall on X also kindly informs me he has been entered in the Ultima this morning.
There are buttons in the Betfair exchange market but he is available at 26.0 there (as at 11.50am on Tuesday), so make of that what you will.
Mind you, a £40 bet into that market probably makes him favourite!
Sam Thomas must have a very small string but he does exceptionally well with them (14 from 61 this season at a strike rate of 23 per cent) and his last two runners have won.
His Our Power has obvious each-way potential here at 12/1 (in two places on the Oddschecker grid), though 10s is the general price.
He won this race in 2023, having finished third the year before, and he has course form figures of 331531.
He will have been freshened up for this after two solid runs at Cheltenham earlier in the season and, while he clearly doesn’t have the handicap upside of an Iroko or Hyland, he will surely take some kicking out of the first four (all firms, bar one, are betting a quarter the odds 1,2,3,4) .
He’d be my ante-post play of the week (admittedly the other betting options are hardly plentiful), though he hardly has the look of a shortener, I guess.
You may want to wait then (that is up to you, as I always say), but that 10s and four places could prove a very peachy combination though, come Saturday afternoon and I am going to try to get some shortly.
And I have successfully done so…..
AKBets are going 10s, four places.
Thomas also has another 10s poke in here in the shape of Katate Dori down the bottom of the weights (he is 1lb wrong), but there is no reason why he wouldn’t run both.
Going – Good, good to soft in places
Going Ratio: 80:20. The entire track has been de-compacted with The Imant’s Shockwave. It is a linear de-compactor, designed to revitalize heavy wear areas by relieving soil compaction, improving aeration and removing surface water.
Rails: The Chase Course is 2 yard out from its inner configuration and the Winter Hurdle Course is on its inner configuration, with the effect on distances added to race distance details.
Going stick reading– 7.2 (3pm , presumably Wednesday, and not as 3pm Monday as stated on BHA website)
NOTE:: was Chase: 6.8; Hurdle: 6.6 on Monday at 1.30pm
Wednesday afternoon course update: “Windy and Rain. Forecast: Risk of showers on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Potential for 4mm to 8mm of rain across the three days. Turning milder from today with max temp +14C.”
Weather: 2.3mm Wednesday, 2.8mm Thursday, 8.6mm Friday
Going – Good to soft
Going stick readings – N/A
Rails: Rail will be set to the innermost lines on both tracks.
Weather: 3mm Wednesday, 1.4mm Thursday, 5mm Friday
Wednesday morning course update: “Dry Tuesday. Frosty start to Wednesday. Temperatures rising fast through the day with highs of 13C expected through Thursday and Friday. Forecast through to Saturday is bright spells and occasional showers on a southerly breeze.”
Going – Standard
The track will have undergone full de-compaction prior to this fixture and may ride slower than STANDARD.
Stalls:5f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Wednesday morning course update: “24mm of rainfall to date this month. A dry and cloudy day today. Some light showers overnight and through Thursday morning are possible. Friday morning will be dry, a chance of a light shower during the afternoon. Saturday, dry with sunny spells. Temperatures rising significantly by the end of the week (14C)”
1.50pm Kempton: Ideal Des Bordes
2.10pm Newcastle: Gold Clermont and Jacks Parrot (both entered overnight at Exeter on Friday)
2.25pm Kempton: Las Canals
2.40pm Southwell: Mondammej (entered overnight at Newcastle on Thursday)
3pm Kempton: Las Canals
3.15pm Southwell: NONE
3.35pm Kempton: Corrigeen Rock
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