By Tony Calvin - 7 May 2025
Let’s be honest, betting at Chester is a luxury many punters can’t afford.
Yes, it’s a quaint track, but it looks like a roulette wheel and it has all the betting attraction of one, with the trouble in running it invites.
I imagine most punters would be satisfied to come out of the three-day meeting playing a draw (as they should really if we are to believe 97 per cent of punters lose, long term).
We have a full field of 12 for the Lily Agnes (two were balloted out – see all details below) and these 2yos are not going to know what has hit them.
That said, local trainers such as Hugo Palmer (he has two in here) may have sneaked in the odd racecourse gallop….
Ali Shuffle is the obvious one I suppose as she is unpenalised for her two wins, has early speed and has trap one, and she is the early [10/3] joint favourite alongside Viamarie from stall five.
Viamarie is a NR as at 10.48am on Tuesday (not eaten up) – Argentine Tango and Awraad, 12 of 12, also came out on Wednesday morning, so we are down to nine and counting – so Ali Shuffle is now best at [15/8].
Blazing, drawn 10, followed suit at 10.56am, so we are now only one withdrawal away from each way 1,2 betting – and two horses were balloted out of this.
In fact, as of Tuesday evening Ali Shuffle was into [11/8], and she was [5/6] on Wednesday morning.
Of course, the inside berth could be a coffin box if you blow the start in a maximum field – more of that Chester bias chat later.
I didn’t think I would be so delighted to see an eight-runner handicap chase at Newton Abbot, as at least they are all assured a clear run round over 2m5f (we are down to seven runners – see below).
The (mildly) interesting aspect of this race was when I was doing my trainerform assessments – by the way the reason why I bother is that I go through each one to see how they are getting on, as a matter of course, so I may as well include it in the column – is that Chris Honour and Barry Brennan have had just one recent runner and both won, at 8s and [15/2] respectively.
That wouldn’t put you off Honour’s Mayhem Mya, who appeared to put up a lifetime best when fourth to Dinoblue in the mares’ chase at Cheltenham last time.
The resulting 7lb rise to a career-high mark of 130 might, though you could argue the 8yo could have copped a bit more.
Heltenham is the early favourite, at prices ranging from [6/4] to [9/4], after his recent Perth win but the Emma Lavelle pair interested me more, particularly Light N Strike.
Lavelle had a good 2024-25 season and she kicked off the new campaign in style with a winner at Warwick on Monday, on the back of a 12-1 scorer at Newmarket last week.
Light N Strike has a fair bit going for him for a general [5/1] chance (available in 15 places).
He has course form (has finished second on both starts here), he is in decent nick after back-to-form efforts at Ascot and Chepstow, and he has his ground and an exploitable handicap mark, some 8lb lower than his peak level in 2023.
It’s not a strong fancy whatsoever, but it’s the strongest I have on Wednesday, so I’ll be chucking a score on him , win-only (dead-eight alert on the each-way front). He is likely to be my sole bet of the day.
And, lo and behold, the favourite Heltenham came out at 7.28pm on Tuesday because of the ground.
We are down to seven runners, and Light N Strike is down to just [9/4] as of 9am on Wednesday morning.
Another maximum field of 12 for this 5f handicap (14 were balloted out of this) – well it was until Carrados, drawn 11 of 12, was pulled out at 8.19am on Tuesday due to coughing – with five of the dozen making their reappearances in this 3yo race.
Lexington Blitz, drawn 12 of 12, came out at 7.42am on Wednesday morning.
I won’t be having a bet of any note but Fuji Mountain looks a fair enough price at the general 20s (available in 11 places).
If you back him it is the old-age Chester betting dilemma.
Take under-the-odds about low-drawn horses, or be tempted in by overpriced ones drawn wide, though last year’s results suggest the bias wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced (though trouble in the run will always be a factor, clearly).
As regards the bias, I will quote Mike Quigley on X on the subject.
He said: “This is courtesy of Dave Renham: “Indeed, combining all 5 to 7f handicaps with 8 or more runners at Chester last year, the highest third of the draw won 13 of 27 races! Just under half. That is a massive switch around.”
Someone else has been in touch, which makes watering levels even more important to know.
It has just been suggested to me that a change of clerks could be behind this, not that I would know.
Long-time incumbent Andrew Morris left in 2023 to go to Newmarket, then Andrew Tulloch took over for 2024 before Eloise Quayle was appointed on March 3rd this year.
They could all have different approaches to ground preparation, watering (which is why details in this area should be demanded of clerks by the BHA, with Quayle failing to give amounts this week) and rail movements and the like.
So maybe the low draw bias will return in 2025 under the new clerk?
Impossible to know, and difficult to bet on to any serious degree.
This is why the BHA (and the Levy Board) have to get a grip on watering levels being made public as a matter of urgency.
Betting turnover on horse racing was down nine per cent in the first quarter of 2025 and the sport needs to do everything it can to arrest the decline.
This is an easy win.
Fuji Mountain is drawn 10 of 12 but at least he had a fair recent run, and is two from two around here (drawn three and four when winning those), both successes coming under today’s 3lb claimer Zak Wheatley.
I’ll probably end up having a throwaway tenner on him for the shits and giggles, but I fully expect the bet to be buried after a furlong.
It’s that kind of track, but he is worth a tenner, and that is what I have had on Betfair at a drifting 30.0 on Wednesday afternoon.
Redorange is all the rage into [13/8].
Quite a lowly-rated bunch of seven for this 120k Cheshire Oaks, featuring horses from four stables we usually associate with this contest.
Aidan O’Brien has won this five times in recent seasons, with the Johnston and Gosden stables chipping in with successes, and Ralph Beckett took this Listed race with Forest Fairy last year.
Obviously, we are dealing with well-bred fillies with a lot more to give (none of those who have been given a mark are rated higher than 93), so it is a guessing game to a fair degree.
None of the seven look to have clocked particularly impressive time figures and only one has run over the trip, in the latter case the Yarmouth winner Queen Of Thieves.
I can see why Beckett’s Newbury winner That’s Amore and O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk are fighting for the early favouritism , but it wouldn’t really surprise you if any of the seven in here stepped up to the plate, upped in trip and with natural improvement from two to three (in the case of three of them), and progression from recent starts.
I don’t even have a token betting thought, though the 25s outsiders Kate O’Riley and Modern Utopia hail from stables in great form at the moment.
One day aside, the form of the Andrew Balding yard, who run Secret Of Love here, has been decidedly moderate.
Eight in the Chester Vase and O’Brien, a regular winner of this contest, has two in here, with Ryan Moore’s mount Lambourn the early [9/4] favourite.
He is now top at [11/8].
He reappeared to finish an improved second to stablemate Delacroix over 1m2f in the Ballysax in late March, and his sire Australia is a strong influence for stamina as he steps up to 1m4f63yd.
As you expect, none of these have raced over this trip before, so expect at least one of these to significantly up their game.
Beckett has a credible duo in here and his well-related Frankel colt Pinhole, a 6s chance, could be the pick of those, but who knows?
I don’t and I am not going to pretend otherwise.
As with the Cheshire Oaks, watch and learn.
We have already had a NR in this 6f handicap, too. Marchogian, drawn 13 of 14, was taken out at 8.09am on Tuesday as he had not eaten up.
Naana’s Sparkle, drawn in 11, came out at 7.44am on Wednesday. Another who did not eat up.
It’s a pity that one of the balloted out horses in this, as with the 1.30pm and 2.05pm, couldn’t have taken his place.
Hammer The Hammer, drawn 10, is the early favourite at [9/4], just ahead of [5/2] chance Bob Mali.
The former runs under a 6lb penalty for a recent 6-length Southwell win – he is 7lb well-in here, as he went up 13lb for that, as per BHA updated marks on Tuesday morning – while the latter is drawn two and a course winner, and comes here having bumped in to a well-handicapped, and heavily-backed, horse when second at Newmarket last month.
The third has since won by 3 1/4 lengths.
I’d side with Bob Mali of that pair, as I suspect a 1lb rise was very lenient, but backing [5/2] chances in 6f Chester handicaps really isn’t my bag.
Bob Mali is now the [7/4] favourite, with Hammer The Hammer out to 4s.
Going: Good
Going stick: 7.6, Wednesday 6.15am
Wednesday morning course update: Cold start this morning. Today forecast to be sunny for much of the day with a light breeze and highs of 16’C. Tomorrow forecast to have sunny intervals with highs of 17’C and a 10mph North Westerly breeze.
Watering: “Selective watering to balance and maintain”
Forecast: Dry and 17 degrees
Rails: 6f to 1.5f out 6 yards.
Stalls: 1m 2f – Outside Remainder – Inside
Going: Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 7.8, Wednesday 7.45am
Wednesday morning course update: Raceday looks fine and dry, with temperatures reaching 17ºc.
Watering: Between 5mm & 10mm applied to selected areas of the track Thursday (1st), primarily the Home & Back Straights. 5mm – 10mm applied to the whole track Friday (2nd). Selective watering Monday (5th) & Tuesday (6th).
Forecast: Dry and 17 degrees
1.30pm Chester: Tricky Tel, Star Marian
2.05pm Chester: Naana’s Sparkle, Just King High, Do It Now, Nad Alshiba Green, Cressida Wildes, Miss Funky Monk, Rock Hunter, Lovelifenlaughter, Havana Gila, Invincible Crown, Jm Jhingree, I’m Next, Rock N Roll Rocket, Arabian Cobra
3.40pm Chester: King of Bears, Mr Cool, Havana Gila, Stapleford Park, Ran Amok, Miss Hathaway, Rock N Roll Rocket, Andalprofit, Arabian Cobra
Lemos De Souza blinkers 0-1 (since 2025) – Convo, 2.05pm Chester
Archie Watson cheekpieces 25-264 since 2017 – Carrados, 2.05pm Chester
George Boughey cheekpieces 14-104 since 2020 – Megaphone, 3.40pm Chester
Hugo Palmer cheekpieces 15-122 since 2016 – The Flying Seagull, 3.40pm Chester
Karl Burke cheekpieces 16-191 since 2016 – Liamarty Dreams, 4.45pm Chester
1.30pm Chester (little evidence to go on): Social Exclusion, Ali Shuffle
1.45pm Newton Abbot: Hang In There?, Excello?, Yes Indeed (prom), Bourbali (prom), Spyglass Hill (prom)
2.05pm Chester: Gold Star Hero, Mission Command (prom), Convo, Kinetic Force, Fuji Mountain, Red Orange, Al Hussar, Ruby’s Profit
2.35pm Chester: Caspi Star, Minnie Hauk, Queen Of Thieves, Secret Of Love?, That’s Amore
3.05pm Chester: Convergent (prom), Furthur, Lazy Griff, Square D’Alboni, Thrice
3.40pm Chester: End Of Story, Force And Valour (prom), Cabelleroso, Bob Mali (prom), Hammer The Hammer, Belgrove, Megaphone, The Flying Seagull, Cressida Wildes
Good: Hugo Palmer (4-9 winner on Monday), Ed Bethell, Tim Easterby, Gemma Tutty, Michael Bell, George Scott, Archie Watson, Aidan O’Brien (among the winners again on Monday), John and Thady Gosden, Ralph Beckett, Joe Tizzard (last three runners had won going into Monday), Barry Brennan (one runner, one winner at 15-2), Chris Honour (one runner, one 8-1 winner), Emma Lavelle (another winner on Monday),
Fair: James Owen (9-2 winner on Tuesday), Karl Burke, George Boughey (4-1 winner on Tuesday), Robert Cowell, Clive Cox, Newland and Insole (winner on Monday), Charlie Johnston, Andrew Balding (though heading towards moderate), Mark Loughnane, Kevin Ryan, James Ferguson, Alice Haynes (arguably more moderate), Phil McEntee (no winners), Nicky Henderson (winner on Tuesday), Martin Keighley
Moderate: Tom Dascombe (a lot of big prices though), Lemos De Souza, Declan Carroll (some running well), Grant Tuer, Anthony Brittain, Charles Hills, David Evans (few have run well though)
Don’t know: Grace Harris, Craig Lidster (maybe moderate but 40-1 second though), D Donovan (four runners, one winner, so probably fair)
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