By Tony Calvin - 16 April 2025
The ground is now firmly on the easy side (if you get me), having been good to firm on Monday (15mm since midnight).
It is now officially good to soft.
This has the makings of a hot 3yo handicap though the ratings band of the 14 runners is just 83 to 94 (this is nominally a 0-102), so it is relatively tight-knit in that respect.
And, as I have been saying in the past couple of columns, fitness is an unknown for plenty of these – nine, in fact.
It really is not the time of year to be seriously unloading on the Flat.
As ever, my initial approach to these races is suss out the trainerform, pace maps and first-time headgear, and go from there, and whenever Godolphin use initial accoutrements it pricks up my ears.
They know what they are doing in this area.
So I had a good look at Al Misbar in the new cheekpieces, as Charlie Appleby is a tremendous 40 from 132 with this option since 2016.
In addition, Al Misbar looks a fairly handicapped maiden off 86, and he also just happens to have cost 1.5m euros as a yearling, being a Blue Point half-brother to Battaash.
And the stable won this handicap with subsequent Group 1 winner Creative Force off 89 in 2021, not that has a great amount of relevance.
It was initially disappointing to see him put in so short in the market at a best-priced 5s, though something was nagging away at me, saying that price is actually fair given the positives (and it did look like headgear could help straighten him out on his second here in October on soft ground).
This race has depth to it, albeit hidden depths with these unexposed 3yos, but I have to have him onside to small money win-only at 5s (available on Betfair to tiny sums), especially as he has form on soft ground too, if needed.
I’ve played, for all the fitness doubts (and some stable runners have underperformed in recent days).
He is currently a weak 6-1+ chance on Betfair in a very illiquid market as at 6am on Wednesday morning (less than 9k matched).
Top weight King Of Bears didn’t cost as much, having made a mere 200k at the horses in training sales in October, and Valmont have retained an interest in him.
Obviously, a subsequent wind op and gelding operation, as well as a first-time hood here, hints that he has not been straightforward but I thought the 25s about him looked half-okay on his first start for George Scott, who you’d fancy to improve him from the Coles.
I decided there were just too many unknowns for me to have a strong opinion in this race.
If there is an overpriced one, then probably the snobbery bias is responsible for Simon Dow’s Majestic Wave trading at a general 25s (the 33s in two places was taken on Monday) after a good return at Lingfield two months ago, a race in which he hit plenty of trouble in the run before taking fourth late on.
He cost 55,000gns out of John O’Donoghue’s stable in October, though the cheekpieces he wore there when winning at Navan are still not on here.
Still, he went okay without them that day at Lingfield in February and he has form with plenty of dig.
He is now best at 22s. I’ve had a nibble.
Dark Cloud Rising was a NR at 8.26pm on Tuesday. He had a fair chance, and you may get a 5p/10p Rule 4 on your early bets there.
There will be further, major deductions now, as Diligently, The Dragon King and Defence Minister are also out because of the going (may be premature with the ground good to soft, with dry conditions and a drying wind)
This looked the best betting race of the day when I looked at the final fields on Monday morning, so hopefully first impressions were correct, as I am struggling elsewhere.
Take the 4s that is still out there as at 3.23pm (see Oddschecker)
I was initially underwhelmed by main early lean, East India Express, trading at [4/1] tops, but I quickly came round to thinking I wouldn’t lay that price.
And when that is the case, you tend to bet.
So take the 4s.
The [7/2] is the acceptable second prize.
He is currently 3s best as at 6am on Wednesday morning but he trades at 4-1+ in, once again, a very illiquid Betfair market (11k matched).
He shaped far better than his final position of a 13-length eighth would suggest in the Martin Pipe, as Freddie Gordon probably went for home too early there (he hit 2.1 in running before weakening between the last two).
That 4s is available with four places attached, and I’d be happy to play each way. This is not a deep race and the fact that Cheltenham is not going to be as wet as seemed likely on Monday is a plus.
Keep an eye out on the weather, though.
I also think the current [9/1] – he has drifted – four places, about Spirits Bay is now worthy of a speculative, definitely small-stakes, play.
That is available in eight places as at 4.52pm on Tuesday.
I ummed and aahed about going win-only on him as he is unproven over the extended 2m4f and the furthest he has gone before resulted in an underwhelming fifth over 2m3f at Newbury last season.
And, on the face of it, he has always shaped like a weak finisher over 2m, too.
But I don’t think he has been ridden optimally this season and everything about his pedigree suggests he really ought to get 2m4f standing on his head.
He is by Black Sam Bellamy out of a mare who won over 2m5f from a staying family.
And a look back at his seventh off a 1lb higher mark in the Imperial Cup last time showed me he stayed in there fighting better than I originally imagined.
He has the 2m class to win this if he stays (he was obviously flattered when third to Constitution Hill in the Unibet Hurdle but he still ran a cracker) and he shaped very well here in December.
The potential rain knocking about isn’t an issue for him (though it would put the emphasis more on stamina, admittedly) and he just strikes me as better than his rating of 124 in a very winnable handicap.
He is 14-1+ on Betfair, and I have been chewing away there for small stakes, too. He is out to 10s fixed-odds and may get bigger.
The simple fact is I don’t fancy too many in here, and those two stood out.
Surely, one of the paddock spoofers’ favourite races of the year.
A 15-runner Wood Ditton, full of unraced 3yos from big stables.
My paddock pick is the un-named favourite, not that the betting has any bearing on what looks best, obviously….
As I say every year, what is this race doing on ITV when we have a perfectly good 0-105 handicap at the end of the card (granted that only has eight runners this time)?
I was tracking the decs for this race and, at around 9.50am, there were only five confirmed – the Mullins pair of O’Moore Park and Classic Getaway, Skelton’s Harper’s Brook, Hang In There and Bhaloo.
Then, in possibly a change of heart, Skelton decided to throw in Riskintheground, and then four others followed.
I just wonder whether Riskintheground will run now there are 10 in the race and the seemingly easy money for fourth at a minimum (£3,731) looks much harder to net now.
He is the [13/2] third favourite though, despite being effectively 2lb wrong here. He went up 8lb for his recent Ayr win and runs here under a 6lb penalty, but he is also out of the handicap.
Hopefully, that makes sense….
O’Moore Park is a fascinating runner in this 2m4f contest as apparently he was an intended runner in the Scottish National until a very late change of heart.
He should have no problems with this shorter trip obviously after his third to Caldwell Potter in the novices’ handicap over course and distance at the Festival and he can run off the same mark here. I know he was beaten 8 ½ lengths there but he still beat 12 other finishers.
I’d agree with him being the favourite here then, which he is at a best-priced 4s with some firms, but dangers aren’t hard to find.
Sorry Dan, but chief among them is Mullins’ Classic Getaway, who is actually as short as [10/3] in places, after he beat Saint Sam in the Red Mills.
He paid for that with a rise at the handicap but maybe they could have given him a little bit more.
This looks a weak race for 70 bags and Mullins could be eyeing the 1-2 again.
We only had one withdrawal from the five-day stage (and that a horse who is due to run on Tuesday), so we have got lucky with seven runners.
You can throw a handkerchief over all bar Kevin Ryan’s French recruit Grand Grey formwise, so maybe Romantic Style is a touch underpriced, as she ranges from [6/5] to [7/4].
And that [7/4] is unlikely to last beyond 9am on Tuesday.
Spoiler: It didn’t
I’d definitely have her as the favourite, as she is a course winner, she beat Ramatuelle in the Prix Impudence this time last year and won well when we last saw her in Dubai on January 31 (though I am surprised we didn’t see her at Meydan after that).
But this is more competitive than those prices suggest.
However, as at 1pm on Tuesday, I was proved spectacularly wrong – well, so far anyway – as she is now best at [11/10], and she is odds-on in places.
And that [11/10] was taken, too.
Only one-and-a half points separated the first five in the betting on Monday, but I bet there will be a sizeable divergence come the off-time once the big (and possibly informed) money hits the markets.
The unbeaten pair of Opera Ballo and The Watcher are the only ones to have raced this year, and it is just a matter of whether you believe the form horse Wimbledon Hawkeye (and others) are going to be using this as a prep for the Guineas, or indeed races of further afterwards with a view to the Derby.
Hands up early doors, I won’t be having a bet, so I have no intention of waffling on here.
This could well be The Waco Kid’s Cup Final though (he is owned by a group of ex-Betfair employees) and he is still arguably overpriced at 25s – the 33s was taken on Monday afternoon – on his all-the-way win over 7f here in the Tattersalls Stakes on soft ground (Timeform called it heavy).
And that soft ground form could be a crucial factor here, given Tuesday’s rain.
Indeed, given Hugo Palmer’s recent comments (“He strikes me as more of a solid Group 3 horse than a potential Group 1 horse at this stage.”) you’d imagine he’d be revved to the hilt here for this 85k pot.
A win for any of the nine here wouldn’t surprise me, but that 25s about The Waco Kid could be a fair play.
He is actually 28s in a place now, and that will be tempt me if I can get hold of it. You can easily forgive him his run at the Breeders’ Cup after that win here.
The price of Game Colours has been trimmed literally since I started writing this copy at 6.15pm – the general 14s disappeared – and it is on the verge of crashing, so take the 12s and 11s out there as soon as this goes live (around 6.32pm).
Any of the general 10s (in most other places elsewhere) with the extra places is fine, to be fair to all.
She is very well handicapped on her easy Lingfield win in a good time two starts ago and she shaped far better than her finishing position of third at Kelso last time, when she breezed into the race but may have done too much too soon on that long run-in.
I think a more patient ride over 2m1f here – and she stays much further – will be just the ticket for this improving 7yo from a stable that I have a lot of time for. And Freddie Gingell looks a fair booking (20 per cent strike rate this season, and only his second ride for the yard).
It wouldn’t surprise me if she went off close to favouritism, not that these things are accurately forecasted these days (stand by for a 40+ BSP…).
The 12s in one place may not be accessible to most, but 11s and 10s is fine and dandy, with five places the norm.
Each way, a pleasure.
He is now 8s best in two places and even that may come under pressure.
East India Express at [4/1] each way, four places, in 2.05pm Cheltenham (7/2 is fine)
Spirits Bay at [9/1] each way, four places, in 2.05pm Cheltenham (8s each way, five places, is arguably better if you can get on)
Game Colours at [12/1] and [11/1] each way, five places, in 5pm Cheltenham (added 6.32pm) – the general 10s is absolutely fine.
Going: Good
Far side course in use
Going stick: 6.2 at Wednesday 6am (was 7.0 at Tuesday 6am)
Stalls: All races: centre
Watering: 5mm applied on Friday
Watering history on BHA site
On Sat, 12 Apr 7:43am the watering status was Watered – 5mm applied on Friday.
On Fri, 11 Apr 7:52am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – 5mm being applied on Friday.
Wednesday morning course update: 16mm of rain on Tuesday. Forecast: Dry day with sunny spells and strengthening winds, daytime high of 13c
Weather : Dry
Going: Good
Going stick: 7.1 at Wednesday 7am
Watering: Watering commenced w/c 24th March. Total of 110-115mm applied.
Watered this morning – no amounts given.
Watering history on BHA site
On Wed, 16 Apr 6:43am the watering status was Watered – Watering commenced w/c 24th March. Total of 110-115mm applied.
On Thu, 10 Apr 4:30pm the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Watering commenced w/c 24th March. Watering to maintain
On Wed, 09 Apr 12:52pm the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Watering commenced w/c 24th March. Watering to continue to maintain.
Wednesday morning course update: A total of 8mm of rainfall in March. 0.5mm overnight into Tuesday and 0.5mm yesterday evening. Possible light showers this morning (1mm). Windy morning with gusts of 40-45mph.
Weather: 1mm due this morning
Rails
ALL 2m4f RACES WILL START ON THE ROUND COURSE Chase rail on the inner line. Hurdle rail +6y
George Scott hood 2-54 since 2016 – King Of Bears, 1.50pm Newmarket
Charlie Appleby cheekpieces 40-132 (2016) – Al Misbar, 1.50pm Newmarket
1.50pm Newmarket: Dark Cloud Rising, Al Misbar, Bob Mali, Belgrave, Double Rush
2.05pm Cheltenham: Lossiemouth (prom), Rightsotom, Reallynthrutfully, Whatsupwithyou, American Sniper, Typhoon Flyer
2.25pm Newmarket (all unraced): N/A
2.40pm Cheltenham: Classic Getaway?, Il Ridoto (prom), Blow Your Wad (prom), O’Moore Park, Bhaloo (prom)
3pm Newmarket: Apollo One, Lethal Levi, Royal Zabeel (prom)
3.35pm Newmarket: New Century?, Opera Ballo (prom), The Waco Kid, The Watcher, Wimbledon Hawkeye (prom)
Good: James Owen (another two winners on Sunday – and Mrs James Owen won with Allmankind at Stratford, too), William Haggas (winner on Tuesday), Charles Hills, Andrew Balding (very good, and two more winners on Tuesday), Jane Chapple-Hyam, Raphael Freire, Joe Tizzard, Tom Symonds, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Newland and Insole (winner at Kempton on Tuesday), Rebecca Menzies, Willie Mullins, Tom Lacey, Paul Nicholls, Charlie Appleby (wasn’t so sure early doors, but Victory Queen and Treasure Fleet settled the Al Misbar nerves late on)
Fair: Richard Hannon (double on Tuesday), Karl Burke (borderline good), John and Thady Gosden (winner on Tuesday), Tom Clover, George Scott, Richard Fahey, Clive Cox, Simon Dow, Archie Watson, Mick Appleby, Andre Fabre, Hugo Palmer, Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson, Olly Murphy, Bailey and Nicholls, David Pipe, Emma Lavelle (10-1 winner on Monday), Brian Meehan (borderline moderate), Ralph Beckett, Kevin Ryan, David O’Meara, John McConnell
Moderate: Ben Pauling
Don’t know: Hamad Al Jehani, Charalambous and Clutterbuck, Henry Candy (one runner, one winner, so it certainly ain’t bad), Polly Gundry, Sophie Leech, Sam Drinkwater, Richard Hobson
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Punchestown Is Not In Dublin (0-2mins) Racing Review: UK & France…
2.10pm York – 20/1 Naqeeb has his first start for the in-form Julie Camacho The…
Horse Racing
Greyhounds
Darts
Football
Home