TONY CALVIN: Two that really ought to be going very close on Saturday

1.45pm Cheltenham – Western Zephyr each-way perhaps – if all eight go

UPDATE: The ground remains good, good to soft in places, with a going stick reading of 6.6 as of 6.30am on Saturday. There are no non-runners on the card, as of yet.

Unless my eyes were deceiving me, Iberico Lord was confirmed for this race on Thursday morning but was then taken out before the 9.30am deadline, after which you cannot withdraw.

I am not sure what was going on there but I can tell you that his ownermate, JP McManus’ Petit Tonnerre, was put in this at the very last minute, to bring the field up to the dead eight.

Whether Petit Tonnerre actually runs is maybe a subject of debate as he was among the favourites at [4/1] for the 2m handicap chase on Sunday, in which he would have been running off a mark of just 127.

In this, he has to race off levels against the likes of the 148-rated L’Eau Du Sud, so it is a curious one.

L’Eau du Sud has an obvious chance after his Stratford win on good to soft ground and Lookaway, winner of a match on his chase debut at Uttoxeter, is another class angle – of course, the betting underlines that – but Western Zephyr opened up at 10s on Thursday (still available in two places) and I thought that was a touch of generosity.

He is another who could have gone down the handicap route this weekend, in his case off 130 on Sunday over 2m4f, but he comes here instead.

His form fell apart last term but he had a wind op in the close season and he proceeded to sluice up off a mark of 123 at Carlisle on his return, making all for a nine-length win in a fair time.

If all eight go (by no means a given), he’d be a decent each-way bet at 8s or bigger, for all he won’t get a solo out in front here.

In summary, I haven’t got a betting opinion in this as it stands, with my fear of a non-runner stopping me getting involved.

2.20pm Cheltenham – Gingell set for a good spin on 7/1 Il Ridoto

Protektorat has been declared for this – but will he run if they don’t water anymore, the light showers miss, and it is genuinely good ground? – and that was welcome news for nine of his rivals, but not so for the five that remain out of the handicap.

And the two at the bottom of the weights at the five-day stage declined the invitation to get involved, too.

The sums involved would have been miniscule but Imagine has apparently been the ante-post mover, and he has his first start for Harry Derham here after being bought out of Gordon Elliott’s yard for 320,000 euros at that dispersal sale in February.

Go and have a look at Derham’s record with new recruits in the Trainer In Focus below.

He is something else and, while I don’t particularly fancy Imagine, Derham’s stats alone have to make him of interest, for all this handicap is a couple of grades up from the level those successes have tended to come at.

And Imagine has never raced on good ground before. There are upsides to him obviously, not least the horse’s excellent record when fresh.

The problem for me in this race is that I think Ginny’s Destiny deserves to be the [3/1] favourite, and that is only in one spot – I am not too worried about his seasonal reappearance record – and I think the main dangers to him are stablemate Il Ridoto (despite being 3lb wrong) and Ga Law, and they are disputing second favouritism at 7s, alongside Imagine.

So that pretty much rules out sticking up a relative outsider each way, such as In Excelsis Deo at 12s and Hartur d’Arc at 20s. I can fully see the place case at least for both of those.

There is always the temptation to have a betting and tipping opinion in the biggest betting race of the day, but I am not having a punt myself at the current prices.

I’m a bit confused by this Gingell claimer “negate” talk

On the subject of Il Ridoto, who is still well handicapped despite being 3lb wrong here – he effectively races off 141, and not so long ago he was on 148 after a near-miss here at the December meeting – I’ve read some people saying the fact that he is 3lb out of the handicap is negated by Freddie Gingell’s claim.

But surely that only makes sense if you believe Gingell doesn’t deserve to be getting that 3lb allowance (his strike rate is certainly impressive, and he has ridden 55 winners).

He may well effectively be a fully-fledged jockey already, and deserves to be riding off levels with the big guys and gals (nasty image of Jimmy Savile popped up there), but you need to believe that if going down the “negate” line.

Just a thought anyway, and I am probably missing the bleedin’ obvious, somewhere.

The facts of the matter are Gingell gets a 3lb claim for a reason, and Il Ridoto is 3lb out of the handicap, end of story.

Regardless, I suspect Gingell is in for a very good spin and Il Ridoto at 7s each way, five places, in one spot looks fair business if you can access it. That Chepstow run last month came at a time when the trainer’s horses were needing it pretty badly.

2.55pm Cheltenham – Doyen Quest fully deserving of 11/4 quotes

I hate it when I agree with the market, and unfortunately that is the case again here, as Doyen Quest fully deserves his place at the head of the betting at a general [11/4].

Unfortunately, the 3s is three places went on Friday morning, but I am undeterred.

He just has everything going for him.

Well, maybe bar one doubt.

He won here over an extended 2m4f on good ground in April, when finishing that campaign in grand style, and he ran a cracker in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his return.

He went up 3lb for that second but that is very strong handicap form.

The winner landed a bit of a punt at 11s there, and the third won a mares’ Listed race by 10 lengths next time. The fourth finished a good second to a well-handicapped horse over fences at Bangor on Wednesday, while the sixth has also won since.

This is his ground, the stable is obviously in decent nick and the only question the horse has to answer concerns his stamina.

That was nearly enough to put me off at 3s in a 12-runner handicap hurdle but connections don’t seem to have any doubts.

The run-style gives you hope on that front, as does the pedigree (the distaff side is full of stamina), and Dan Skelton could have run him in the 2m5f handicap hurdle at 3.30pm.

If he stays, he will take a lot of whacking. And we could well see him in the 100k 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock a week on Saturday if he does win and the ground remains decent. He is a lightly-raced 6yo with a lot of handicap upside.

On balance, on a very quiet betting Saturday, I am going to back him at [11/4], available in five places.

I just couldn’t get away from him, and this is not a price I normally bet/tip at.

3.15pm Newcastle – 9/4 Dubai Honour the one to beat

Dubai Honour and Peace Man come out joint-best on official figures at these weights, and they are priced up at [9/4] and [3/1] respectively.

I’d marginally favour the jolly.

That’s all I have got really – I doubt I’ll even watch the race.

3.30pm Cheltenham – 14/1 Koori Star is half-interesting

If you shopped around on Thursday, you could have found four different favourites in this market, which tells you how competitive it is.

I didn’t have a betting opinion in here but Koori Star was half-interesting at 14s.

Winner of his sole point, he won on his hurdling debut at Sligo on good ground in July and he looks on a fair mark judged on that 8-length win, considering the way the race has worked out.

He hasn’t fired since, blowing out on soft ground when favourite at Galway recently on his handicap debut, but someone obviously thought he was well treated that day after just two hurdling starts, and the stable has had a couple of decent winners here.

But it’s a total guess-up and there are far more solid propositions in here.

9/2 Hamsiyann the one for early money, and I can increasingly see why

The one for early money has been for Hamsiyann, and he now ranges from [9/2] to just [7/2] elsewhere. He was available at 6s on Thursday, and the 5s disappeared on Friday morning.

The [9/2] available in seven places is fine, though.

Tony Martin has his license back in his own name (and his recent runners have been gong well, if not winning, as we saw again in the opener here on Friday) and the 4yo looks a very likely sort on his Flat form – he is rated 91, against his hurdles mark of 111 – which most recently saw him finish second to a certain Alphonse Le Grande in the Chester Plate in May.

Alphonse Le Grande won off 73 that day, and he is now rated 20lb higher.

Given his Flat staying form, I can fully see the case for him over a trip that looks sure to suit, stepping up to 2m5f for the first time.

The last time we saw Hamsiyann over hurdles he finished (a possibly unlucky) third over a sub-2m at Ascot, and this is just his fifth start in this sphere.

The stable won this with the punted Unanswered in 2022, a horse that had a very similar profile, stepping up to 2m5f for the first time over hurdles, having shown staying form on the Flat.

He hasn’t run since May and perhaps may not be the heartiest of battlers, but the general [9/2] looks worth a dart.

I’ll throw a few quid at him on a very quiet day.

3.48pm Newcastle – 10/3 Annaf holds strong claims but the stable form is a massive worry

Now, if you told me that I was seriously considering a tip on Newcastle’s all-weather card, and, furthermore, one hailing from a stable with a recent strike rate of three per cent that was priced up at a mere [10/3], I’d have said you were mad.

The Mick Appleby yard have had an appalling October and November, with just two winners from 89 runners, but at least Annaf has been running well himself and he really ought to prove too good for these if anywhere near his best.

And, as I always say, even if you plough on regardless – and I did back him on Thursday afternoon, to be truthful –  it is important you flag poor runs to readers.

And Appleby’s current run is very poor.

In fact, I slept on this possible tip after the stable’s three runners all ran appallingly at Chelmsford on Thursday evening – two finished last, and the other, a [10/3] poke, finished 8^th of 10, beaten 10 ½ lengths – and I decided to pull the tip on his Friday morning re-write.

He may well still win – and I hope he does, having already backed him.

Rated 112, Annaf is the clear pick of these on official ratings, and he is unpenalised as penalties only kick in after March 31.

He was on the sidelines after winning a Grade 2 in Riyadh in February and only made his return in the Group 1 Haydock Sprint Cup in September, a race you can put a line through as he got badly hampered there.

His Newbury Group 3 third on heavy ground a fortnight later was effectively his first run of the turf season then, and then he ran well for a long way in the Group 1 Champions Sprint at Ascot.

Perhaps the testing ground on both occasions was not ideal.

This is a fair drop in class in Listed company then and he returns to a track where he has course form figures of 11423.

He is [10/3] in two places, and a general 3s, and, were it not for the stable form, I’d have said that was a very good bet.

UPDATE: He had a welcome 8-1 winner on Friday night, so maybe I should have stuck to my initial guns…..

I may as well have a butchers’ at the rest of the Cheltenham card, while I am at it.

12.35pm Cheltenham – 13/2 Static could progress here

James Owen started to appear on the radar when Burdett Road won this race last season, and he has another likely lad in here in the shape of his half-brother, East India Dock. The 90-rated Flat handicapper won in a good time at Wincanton on his hurdling debut.

He is the [11/4] favourite.

Owen should have a fair idea of where he stands with Static, as his Liam Swagger (who could have run here) beat Static at Wetherby – but that only tells half the story.

Static was one of the biggest drifters you will see this season when denied by just a neck there and this ex-French winner has to be feared as a result, for all he carries a 3lb penalty here.

I wouldn’t lay him at the available [13/2] but this is a race with a lot of unknowns attached, with My Noble Lord (JP likes to target this meeting) another considerable danger behind the favourite.

1.10pm Cheltenham – 4/1 Come On Teddy to bare his all?

A competitive field but this is the first race of the Cheltenham meeting where we get to see the Derham stable-switcher vibe in action with Come On Teddy.

All the bigger prices were taken about him on Thursday (including some [13/2]) and the course winner has joined his new yard on a very exploitable mark of 124, having won off 137 for Tom George, albeit back in 2021.

He is now a general 4s. Whether he wants a bit more dig we shall see, and he is an 10yo now.

No real betting opinion here.

UPDATE 12.45pm Saturday: Come On Teddy is a NR due to going.

4.00pm Cheltenham – 11/1 Strong Run perhaps overpriced

I don’t do mares’ bumpers, though Strong Run looks a decent enough price at 11s in a place after a good second in a fair time at Uttoxeter.

This is very much not my bag, though.

Go well.

 

BETS

Doyen Quest at [11/4] in 2.55pm at Cheltenham. Available in five places.

Hamsiyann at [9/2] in 3.30pm at Cheltenham. Available in seven places.

 

GOING/WEATHER – updated 6.30am Saturday.

 

CHELTENHAM

 

GOING:  Good, good to soft in places

GOING STICK:  6.6 at 6.30 Saturday

WEATHER:  Dry overnight. Dry and 10 degrees, though showers could be coming early on Saturday afternoon.

WATERING:  Been watering since last Wednesday. No amounts given.

 

 

NEWCASTLE

GOING: Standard

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Nigel Hawke cheekpieces 3-47 since 2016

 

Willie Mullins blinkers 2-29 since 2009

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (out of the handicap; carrying more weight than they should)

 

2.20pm: Hartur d’Arc (1lb), Madara (1lb), Il Ridoto (3lb), Straw Fan Jack (6lb), Weveallbeencaught (10lb)

3.30pm: Mikimoto (1lb)

 

PACE MAPS (ITV races)

 

1.45pm Cheltenham: Breizh River (prom), L’Eau du Sud, Lookaway, Western Zephyr

2.20pm Cheltenham: Ginny’s Destiny, Editeur Du Gite, Prokterorat?, Ga Law (prom), Imagine?, Hartur d’Arc (prom), Il Ridoto (prom)

2.55pm Cheltenham:  Gowel Road (prom), Emailandy (prom), Quick Draw?, Hardy Boy (prom), Pinnacle Peak?

3.15pm Newcastle: Platoon, Peace Man?

3.30pm Cheltenham: Wyenot, Fire Flyer?, Kings Hill (prom), Champagne Twist (prom), Mikimoto (prom)

3.48pm Newcastle: Golden Mind (prom), Night Raider, Orne

 

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; ITV races only)

*****************

TRAINER IN FOCUS: HARRY DERHAM

(Thanks goes to Andy Richmond, and Proform stats, for this)

Harry Derham has made a massive impression in a short space of time as a trainer, and one aspect of his talent has been his exceptional record with new recruits.

So I thought I would put some flesh on the bones, with Imagine running in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday.

Imagine is having his first start for him (as may Teddy Blue in the Greatwood on Sunday), having been bought for 320,000 euros out of Gordon Elliott’s yard in February.

And Come On Teddy has joined Derham from Tom George and runs in the 3m1f handicap chase at 1.10pm.

With his stable-switchers overall, he is 23-56 (41%, +9.17, Winners Above Expected), and the profit and loss at Betfair SP is 90.57 and at 59.45 at industry SP.

The average win odds are 6.5.

The horses have come from a variety of trainers, but the leading ones are Oliver Sherwood (who is his assistant and has brought horses with him) at 6-14 and his uncle Paul Nicholls at 4-13.

In handicaps only, with horses from other trainers first time up, (they may have run in handicaps for those trainers) he is 15-26 (57%, +8.01 WAX), the p and l at BSP 60.54 and at ISP 46.60.

The average win odds are 5.87.

That is mightily impressive in anyone’s book, for all those successes came at a relatively low level.

He now has to do it on the big stage this weekend.

 

****************

Good: Jonjo and A J O’Neill (another two winners on Friday), Olly Murphy (double on Thursday), Harry Fry, Ben Pauling, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden (very good), Paul Nicholls, David Pipe, Willie Mullins, Henry De Bromhead, Hobbs and White, William Haggas, Jane Chapple-Hyam, John and Thady Gosden, William Knight (very good), Roger Varian (very good), Richard Fahey (another 10-1 winner on Friday) James Fanshawe, Neil King

Fair: Nicky Henderson (double on Friday), Martin Keighley, Gavin Cromwell, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Joseph O’Brien (borderline moderate), Laura Morgan, Harry Derham, Tony Martin, Gary and Josh Moore, Peter Fahey, Henry Daly, Marco Botti, Sean Woods, Simon and Ed Crisford, Archie Watson, Karl Burke, Julie Camacho, Michael Bell (no winners), Jack Channon (no winners), Charlie Longsdon (needs a winner, though), Christian Williams (running a bit better)

Moderate: Sheila Lewis, Andrew Balding, Stella Barclay, Mick Appleby (much-welcomed 8-1 winner on Friday night after a horrible spell), Adrian Keatley (very few runners)

Don’t know: Paul John Gilligan (only three recent runners), Ryan Potter (moderate but all big prices), Paul Robson (only three runners at prices), Richard Hobson (very few runners)