By Tony Calvin - 8 May 2025
This obviously has gone live before the opening day has started, so we don’t how what, if any, bias is set to materialise, and it would be unwise to draw any hard and fast conclusions on such a small sample anyway.
This is what I wrote about the subject in Wednesday’s column, if you missed it (you clearly shouldn’t have done).
Take under-the-odds about low-drawn horses, or be tempted in by overpriced ones drawn wide, though last year’s results suggest the bias wasn’t anywhere near as pronounced (though trouble in the run will always be a factor, clearly – and it appears the ground especially).
As regards the bias, I will quote Mike Quigley on X on the subject.
He said: “This is courtesy of Dave Renham: “Indeed, combining all 5 to 7f handicaps with 8 or more runners at Chester last year, the highest third of the draw won 13 of 27 races! Just under half. That is a massive switch around.”
Someone else has been in touch, which makes the ground/watering levels even more important to know.
It has just been suggested to me that a change of clerks could be behind this, not that I would know.
Long-time incumbent Andrew Morris left in 2023 to go to Newmarket, then Andrew Tulloch took over for 2024 before Eloise Quayle was appointed on March 3rd this year.
They could all have different approaches to ground preparation, watering (which is why details in this area should be demanded of clerks by the BHA, with Quayle failing to give amounts this week) and rail movements and the like.
So maybe the low draw bias will return in 2025 under the new clerk?
Impossible to know – Wednesday’s results in 5-7f handicaps gave mixed signals – and difficult to bet on to any serious degree, though that could just be my personal dislike for punting at this track.
This is why the BHA (and the Levy Board) have to get a grip on watering levels being made public as a matter of urgency.
Betting turnover on horse racing was down nine per cent in the first quarter of 2025 and the sport needs to do everything it can to arrest the decline.
This is an easy win.
And people from the HBF were in touch on Wednesday to hint that it may be forthcoming soon.
There is a ton of pace in this 5f handicap, so this could be pretty rough and ready.
Historically, you have needed to be drawn low in this race – no horse has won from wider out than four in the last 10 years, so forward-goers Fair Taxes and Rosenpur, in one and two, are obvious enough plays here at [17/2] and 14s, though the latter is 3lb out of the weights (old boy Copper Knight is 2lb wrong) and the former’s stable could be in better form.
Fair Taxes was the mover from 11s on Tuesday.
UPDATE: He was [15/2] on Wednesday morning and he has crashed in price through the afternoon, with [11/2] available with just one firm at 3.40pm, and as low as [7/2] elsewhere.
But both Fair Taxes and Rosenpur will be facing a lot of pace pressure if not getting on the front end toute suite.
An easy race to swerve for me.
This 2m3f+ 0-120 handicap hurdle (effectively a 103-117), featuring seven lowly, out-of-form horses on heavily-watered ground – see below – isn’t going to have anyone asking for a betting overdraft.
But we all have the option of not watching/punting.
For my sins, I was clocking the decs coming through on Tuesday morning, and Matt Crawley put in Taxus Baccata very late.
You can see why, as this is a very winnable race, though for an ITV contest to be worth just 9k (and a mere £4,753 to the winner) is probably not really on.
Crawley’s horse ran badly over fences last time but he sticks his 7yo mare back over hurdles with first-time cheekpieces on (stable is 0 from 3 with this option) and she is mildly interesting at 9s.
She wasn’t a bad bumper winner, and she won a handicap chase by 10 lengths off 100 over this trip at Plumpton in March on good ground (Timeform called it good to soft), so her hurdles mark of 103 is okay on that evidence.
She could get an uncontested lead here too, and one of the dam’s relatives won six times in cheekpieces, for what it is worth.
The best of a moderate bunch perhaps, and the small Crawley yard has had a couple of recent seconds.
There are obvious negatives about her in this grade – and the ground has officially quickened up at Huntingdon, which may not be ideal, but they put another 15mm on on Wednesday – but I’ve had a very small bet on her at 9s or bigger (currently 10s in a couple of spots on Wednesday afternoon).
Favourite Ile De Jersey was pulled out at 12.41pm on Thursday, so they’ll be a big Rule 4 here (she ranged from 2s to 9/4).
Course finances aside, you could strongly suggest Chester could and should be a two-day meeting, tops, and this maximum field of 13 runners for this 5f110yd 2yo maiden makes no interest whatsoever.
Those to have raced don’t set a scary standard, so there was little surprise that the newcomers dominated the early betting.
Ollie Sangster’s Luminare, a 100k yearling with Ryan Moore up, is the [11/4] favourite as this goes live, despite being drawn 13 of 13, closely followed by the Hugo Palmer duo of Tricky Tel and Dubai Time at [9/2] and [11/2], in traps two and three respectively.
An impossible race for the unconnected to have a betting opinion on, so I will leave this to the gossip merchants.
Sangster really has struck form in recent days.
Frio, from stall 12, has been the Wednesday mover. Having opened up at 11s and 10s, the Musseleburgh third was a best-priced [7/2] on Thursday morning.
It is not often you see the first two in the betting drawn 13 and 12 in a 13-runner 5f race at Chester.
And you won’t here either, as Frio was a NR as at 7.53am with a girth gall.
And now Luminare has followed suit at 9.26am with a bruised foot.
What are the chances, eh?
Mount Kilimanjaro was beaten into third at [1/4] on his return at Dundalk in March – the stable thought “they may have started him too early” – so it is relatively surprising to see him as the [9/4] favourite for this Dee Stakes, and that is available in just one place.
He is now a mere [5/4] on Thursday morning, and that could be coming under pressure.
Then again, he has the best form, by some way, courtesy of his second to stablemate Twain in a French Group 1, and O’Brien’s Wednesday’s double will have probably emboldened his supporters.
Once more, this is a hard race to get a punting handle on, and I am not inclined to force a bet.
The Wood Ditton winner High Stock obviously has all the potential going after just the one start – and his pedigree suggests this longer trip should be no problem – but he is just [10/3] in a place, and on pure form and guaranteed fitness alone then Blue Riband third Mirabeau is probably the overpriced one at 16s and 14s.
But I see no need to scramble for a bet around in the dark for a bet, given the doubts about shortening, clear top dog Mount Kilimanjaro.
Just the six runners for this 140k Ormonde Stakes but a decent three-way-go with Illinois taking on Al Qareem and Absurde.
The adjusted weights (Illinois carries a 5lb penalty and Al Qareem 3lb) really levels the playing field from a ratings point of view, so course winner (he was really impressive when scoring here in August) Absurde really has to enter the equation given the form he has been in over hurdles.
However, I’d say his current price of [5/2] is no more than fair.
That comment may made to be look rather silly when the proper market arrives and gives us more of a clue as to the state of the readiness of the St Leger runner-up Illinois, as Absurde could easily go off as a strong favourite if the vibes for him are poor.
You just don’t know until the last minute these days, but the early moves are already angling for Absurde, it seems.
He was cut into [6/4] joint-favouritism in places by 3.40pm on Wednesday, with just one spot of [13/8].
And if Mondo Man turns up in the same form as he showed on the Flat in the French Derby last season maybe this is probably not a four-runner race.
Hurdling may have soured him for the moment, though.
Yet another tricky race to finish off the ITV card, in this case a nine-runner 3yo 7f handicap.
Despite going up 3lb for his Goodwood defeat in August – he had a setback after that run – there remains a bit of a buzz around El Burhan, who has been put in at 2s here (and that is in just one spot).
They were talking him up as better than a handicapper last season, so maybe he will kick on as a 3yo, though whether a first-time tongue-tie proves to be a negative or positive we shall see.
I thought Our Mighty Mo was okay at 16s given he shaped better the bare form at Musselburgh on his return, though his record would suggest he wants more dig.
The visor did the trick for Sex On Fire at Haydock last time, and if repeats the dose here, he looks fairly priced at [11/2], though a 7lb rise was as much as he could have been given for that win.
No interest.
If I am having a bet on the ITV races on Thursday, it’ll probably just be at Huntingdon.
Well, Newton Abbot did me okay on Wednesday, so roll on the jumps season, I say…
Going: Good
Going stick: 7.4, Thursday 6.30am (was 7.6 Wednesday)
Thursday morning course update: Today forecast to have sunny intervals with highs of 17’C and a 7mph Easterly breeze.
Watering: “Watering to balance and maintain will likely recommence after today’s racing” (today being Wednesday)
“Watered last night after racing” – sounds like 3mm put on
Forecast: Dry and 17 degrees
Rails: 4f to 1.5f out 3 yards.
Stalls:1m 2f – Outside Remainder – Inside
Going: Good, good to firm in places
Going stick – Chase: 6.4 Hurdle: 6.8; as at Thursday 6am (was 7.1 and 7.5 (Tuesday 8am)
Thursday morning course update: Forecast: 65mm has been applied since Friday including 15mm on Wednesday.
Watering: 65mm has been applied since Friday including 15mm on Wednesday.
Forecast: Dry and 14 degrees
2.05pm Chester: Our Hero Matty
James Owen cheekpieces 3-23 since 2024 – Mermaids Cave, 1.45pm Huntingdon
Matt Crawley cheekpieces 0-3 since 2022 – Taxus Baccata, 1.45pm Huntingdon
1.30pm Chester: Balmoral Lady, Dream Composer, Roman Dragon (prom), Maila Scouse?, Angel Shared, Fair Taxes, Balon d’Or, Dickieburd, Copper Knight, Rosenpur
1.45pm Huntingdon: Taxus Baccata
2.05pm Chester (very little to go on): N/A
2.35pm Chester: Isambard Brunel, Mount Kilimanjaro (prom)
3.05pm Chester: Illinois, Al Qareem
3.40pm Chester: Supido (prom), Our Mighty Mo, Sweet Fantastic (prom), High On Hope?, Soldiers Star
Excellent: Owen Burrows
Good: Hugo Palmer, Tim Easterby, Aidan O’Brien (double on Wednesday), Ralph Beckett, Ed Walker, Jennie Candlish (12-1 Chester winner on Wednesday), Stella Barclay, Richard Spencer, Ollie Sangster (12-1 and 15-8 winners on Tuesday)
Fair: James Owen (9-2 winner on Tuesday), Karl Burke (another 2yo winner on Wednesday), George Boughey, Andrew Balding (maybe heading towards moderate but a couple ran well in defeat on Wedenesday), Nicky Henderson (winner on Tuesday), Neil Mulholland (two winners on Wednesday), David and Nicola Barron, John and Sean Quinn, Brian Ellison, James Tate, Richard Hughes, Dominic Ffrench Davis, Willie Mullins (fair for him anyway, in strike rate terms at least if not numbers), Gary and Josh Moore, Tom Clover, Matt Crawley
Moderate: Tom Dascombe (a lot of big prices admittedly, and a decent third here on Wednesday), David Evans (few have run well and probably harsh, though he is winless of late), Mel Rowley, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Ross O’Sullivan, Ivan Furtado, James Horton, Craig Lidster, David Loughnane (few have gone well, and he had a winner at Brighton on Thursday, so he is probably fair now), Ian Williams
Don’t know: Charles and Adam Pogson, James Evans, Steph Hollinshead (one winner from four runners, so good enough)
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