TONY CALVIN: TODAY’S RACING – thoughts and fancies on all 5 ITV races

1.15pm Doncaster  – Tricky Donny opener

With the current declining horse population and a static fixture list that presents trainers and owners with a plethora of opportunities (today aside…), most Festivals could probably do with losing a day.

You tend to get a lot of filler races, and that seems to be the case with the opening salvo of Doncaster’s four-day meeting on Thursday, with three nurseries over similar trips (6f117yd, 7f6yd and 1m) included in the eight-race card.

Whatever, let’s deal with what we have been given (and Thursday’s field sizes held up well, to be fair), and ITV kick off with a 12-runner fillies’ 6f111yd nursery, and Half Sovereign, bidding for a four-timer, heads the market at [10/3].

She is as low as [9/4].

Actually, I should mention that today (Wednesday) is set to be a pretty wet day at Donny (maybe 7mm or so. maybe less, maybe more), so work on the basis of minimum good to soft ground perhaps on Thursday (we started Wednesday on good, good to soft in places, on the straight course – easier on the round track).

Half Sovereign has an obvious chance (and she has decent time credentials too, as well as winning form on good to soft) , and Isle Of Fernandez is an interesting contender after winning as the odds suggested she should have done at Carlisle on Tuesday – Isle Of Fernandez was pulled out at 9.46am as “not eaten up” – but this is a very open race to my way of thinking, with many of the runners possibly encountering the softest ground they have raced on (if they get more than currently forecast).

The 16s chance Love Olivia, having her first start for the promising Charlie Clover, is potentially the best handicapped horse in here on her York third in May, though her form has clearly tailed off since – that 16s is available four places, a quarter the odds – but I haven’t got a strong betting opinion in this.

The pace map suggests you want to be drawn low to middle here, by the way, but who knows how the track/ground will ride if they do get the 7mm or so.

1.50pm  – 7/1 Calendar could have a date with the £216k first prize

A full field of 22 for this 300k+ juvenile contest (over 216 bags to the lucky winner), and Jel Pepper, who vies for favouritism at the 4s mark with Brussels, looks the pick of the weights here.

Doncaster should provide going stick readings from across the track

Again, I’m not sure where you want to be drawn here – going stick readings across the track would he helpful in that regard, Haydock-stylee, please Doncaster – as I have pace all across the track (see below), so that is not remotely helpful, sorry.

Jel Pepper in 16 has the best time and form credentials at the weights, but they presumably think Brussels is much better than he has shown, and he comes here instead of three other Group and Listed race options this week (he was left in the National Stakes on Sunday yesterday).

The price of 7s isn’t anything particularly flash (though two firms are offering [13/2] and five places for each-way punters, which seems rather generous if you can snaffle) but Calendar Girl has a very obvious top four/five chance, and a winning one besides.

The superb Owen Burrows is a brilliant placer of his relatively small string – 26 winners from 103 runners this season at a strike rate of 25 per cent – and his filly gets between 5lb and 15lb from the rest of the field.

She bolted up on her debut at Newbury in July and maybe she is better than she showed when beaten at odds-on at Epsom last time, though the winner followed up off a mark of 81 in a nursery next time, so she already has a decent chance at the weights on the bare form, as it stands.

However, I probably won’t be having a bet here, with the stand-out top-five play out of bounds for me.

The unraced Overbudget is a non-runner as at 4.24pm (not eaten up).

2.25pm  – 8/1 Venetian could blindside the favourite perhaps

I was a little surprised to see Moon Target best at 2s here, and as low as [13/8] in places, but I guess her second in the Prestige is just about the best form on offer going into the race and the step up to 1m should really suit this Cracksman filly.

She does face eight winners though, two of those unexposed once-raced scorers, so would-be layers at 2s probably have plenty running for them.

Venetian Lace, the most experienced in the line-up after four starts, was (indeed is, as this goes live) 8s in three places on Wednesday morning and that is/was arguably the best bet in the race, for all we are dealing with a lot of obvious unknowns here.

You’d have liked to have seen her finishing off her races over 7f a touch more strongly, given she moves up to 1m here, but her form is pretty much on the same shelf of the favourite’s and, on pedigree,  she should Steve Mellish the step up in trip.

She is by Masar out of a 1m2f winner, and the Charlie Johnston yard continues to go pretty well given they are a numbers operation.

But will I have a bet myself?

Probably not, but the 8s Venetian Lace appeals most if you do.

Samra Green, the once-raced winner, was a NR at 7.15am today (cast in box), so we are down to eight.

3pm Doncaster – No Secret, this could be won from the front

It is a really tricky ITV card on Thursday, and this 1m6f+ Park Hill Stakes for 3yo+ fillies is trappy enough, though Danielle is the clear [3/1] favourite after bumping into an impressive up-and-comer Waardah in the Lillie Langtry on her return.

The more rain the merrier for her, and I have no truck with her price at all, especially as she also ticks the course form box, too

She is the form horse but a lot of these are snapping at her heels, many of those progressive horses in their own right, so a case can be made for a few at their respective prices.

Oisin Murphy is a bit of mixed bag, riding-wise, at the moment, at the top of his game on occasions but seemingly disinterested on others – we can probably all relate to that, mind you, as that is life – but surely he will be alive to the fact that his mount, Secret Of Love, seems the sole pace angle here and could get an uncontested lead if they want it.

I fully accept that her two best runs this season have come from off the pace, but there is an opportunity to press on here and dictate their own fate/pace as they go up in distance.

An excellent staying-on length second to Minnie Hauk in the Cheshire Oaks at Chester in May, she finished a good fourth at Hamilton last time, and I reckon this step up to 1m6f+ for the first time is set to suit.

She needs to improve 10lb or so to win this, but she has form with dig, she could get the run of the race and the stamina test could be a big plus for this full sister to a 1m6f winner and a half-sister to the 110-rated 1m4f scorer Sons And Lovers.

She is available at 16s, three places, and 14s, four places – in fact there is now some 18s, four places, as at 10am on Thursday and 22s with AKBets, usual terms –  and that looks an each-way risk worth chancing. She is currently [19.5] in an illiquid Betfair market.

Your A-game please, from the front, Oisin….because I have had a modest interest at the current price.

3.35pm – 6/1 is hopefully a Rock in this

Just the 10 runners for a 70k handicap that could have accommodated double that number, and it looks a very winnable race as a result.

A valuable handicap invariably means master planner William Haggas is represented, and his lightly-raced First Principle, a well-related Kingman colt, heads the betting at [11/4] (the 3s went this morning).

However, Hopewell Rock looks a decent alternative at 6s and [11/2] (he actually opened up at 8s on Tuesday and the 13/2 was taken this morning after Monty from Withnail put him up from his motor on X, the terrible c***).

I’ve always found Darbyshire very good value, for the avoidance of doubt….

Like the favourite, Hopewell Rock has also had just the three runs, winning on heavy and good ground in his two unbeaten starts last season, and he shaped okay over 1m2f in a strong five-runner handicap at Newbury on his belated reappearance last month.

The handicapper was a bit of a tight-arse for not dropping him an ounce for that (he was beaten 5 ¼ lengths, after all) but a mark of 94 looks fair on his Bath win at two and we are dealing with a pretty well-regarded 235,000 guineas yearling here (he held Group entries at two) and he was entitled to need that Newbury run after such a long lay-off.

He does have his stamina to prove but he made, and won on, his debut over a mile as a juvenile, so you’d hope he can see this 1m2f out.

I’ve had a small bet at 6s.

If you can get the [11/2], four places, with one firm, that’s a very decent combo.

He is just 3s as at 10am on Thursday though, a walkaway price now.

Boughey’s Star Sports quotes

This is what Star Sports ambassador George Boughey, trainer of Hopewell Rock, told the bookmaker before the horse’s return at Newbury last month.

Boughey said: “He won on debut at this meeting a year ago but has had niggles since that kept him off. Nothing serious, but enough to hold him back. His owner has been very patient. I think 10 furlongs is what he’s wanted all along and he’s ready to start again. He is one we’re hopeful can go through the grades this season.”

Sounds promising enough to me – I read that Newbury run as a needed stepping-stone – and he’ll be keen to repay the owner’s patience on the ITV stage, no doubt.

Hopefully, starting now.

TODAY’s stats and information – updated Thursday morning

DONCASTER

GOING – Straight: Good to soft, good in places; Round course: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.0, Thursday 7.30am (was 6.4, Wednesday 7.30am) – disappointingly. still no stick readings across the track

Rails: Round Course, 4yds off innermost line. +12yds to round races of 1m 2f and further.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

Thursday  morning course update: 22.8mm rain last week. 5.6mm rain yesterday Mainly dry in the morning with the chance of showers from early afternoon. Not expecting large amounts Temp 18C Southerly winds gusting at times.

Weather:  1mm Thursday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STAT

Karl Burke cheekpieces; Bushwacker, 1.50pm; 20-255 (7% and a loss of 113 points at SP; in fact you would have made nearly 77 points laying them on Betfair)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; with draws attached)

1.15pm: Half Sovereign (drawn 8), March Ahead (3), If I Could Dream (6), Love Olivia (5)

1.50pm: Tadej (22), Poatan (8), Battle Apple (18), Slay Queen (14), Bushwacker (4), Ambishio (12), Cashbox (2)

2.25pm: Venetian Lace (7), Sugar Island (3),  Timeforsharing (4)

3pm: Secret Of Love (6)?

3.35pm: First Principle (9) Castle Stuart (4), Devil’s Advocate (10), Molveno (6), Hot Cash (prom – 5), Wolf Of Badenoch (3)

TRAINERFORM

Good: Ed Bethell, Charlie Clover (very small sample, so maybe questionable), William Haggas, Ivan Furtado, James Fanshawe, Owen Burrows (small sample but very good once again, three winners from seven recent runners), Sir Mark Prescott, Charlie Johnston (maybe nearer fair), John and Thady Gosden, Paddy Twomey (very small sample but excellent; five runners, three winners and the other two placed, one beaten just 1/2 length), George Boughey, Tim Easterby (an impressive six winners on Tuesday)

Fair:  Karl Burke (nearer good – and especially now he has had a Donny double on Thursday), Kevin Ryan, Jonathan Portman, George Scott, Hugo Palmer, Richard Hannon, Eve Johnson Houghton, Ismail Mohammed, Clive Cox, Mick Appleby, Ed Walker, David O’Meara, Johnny Murtagh, Marco Botti, Richard Fahey, Andrew Balding

Moderate: Rebecca Menzies, Aidan O’Brien (for him), Archie Watson (6-4 winner on Tuesday, though), Dylan Cunha, Charles Hills, Oliver Cole, Richard Hughes, Jack Channon

Don’t know: Hilal Kobeiessi