TONY CALVIN: THURSDAY’s ITV details – three races in early focus

2.40pm Salisbury – Should Alfred be 33s, for all the doubts?

This 1m6f handicap has a flag start, so prepare to be swearing at the TV early doors when your horse proves a reluctant hero early doors without the rigid familiarity of the stalls.

At least they have 1m6f to rectify any tardy starts – unlike that Ripon farce at the weekend – and another aspect of this race to be wary of is that we have forecast rain on heavily-watered ground.

They have already had 3.5mm of rain by 8.19am on Wednesday morning.

It wasn’t initially a particularly appealing betting proposition to me – though I may relent and have a throwaway tenner on him – but I was pretty surprised to see Alfred Boucher put in at 33s here (by one organisation; three firms).

Yes, he probably has had at least one major issue since being touched off a short-head by Trawlerman in the Ebor in August 2022 but he is a colossal 16lb lower than that day and he showed a bit more on his most recent start at Kempton in October.

The handicapper has obviously played ball with him – that Ebor run is only five runs ago, if nearly four years – and it can be seen as a positive that the owner is persevering with the horse as a 10yo.

All things considered, the 33s is fair risk-to-reward play for this course winner, with the obvious nod to a total blow-out.

3.30pm York – Just the four in the Kate Middleton now

I’m not sure if anyone was considering an each-way bet in the Group 2 (Kate) Middleton Stakes but they were thwarted early on if so, as Fairy Glen, who ranged from 12s to 20s, came out at 8.31am on Wednesday with a bruised foot.

Actually, given the colouring of horses, how do trainers know it is a bruised foot and not something else?

Anyway, this looks set up for a repeat winning bid for See The Fire , which is why she is a [5/4] chance.

Fallen Angel should get an uncontested lead here but she lacks a recent run, all her best form to date is over a mile and she carries a 3lb penalty. You certainly can’t write her off but 3s is her price and nothing more.

Diamond Rain has only 2lb to find with See The Fire on these terms, but of course I have been bleating on about the form of the Charlie Appleby stable for a while now. Normal winning service will be resumed shortly I am sure, but I’d be steering clear until it does.

It is quite something to think that Appleby only has his first 2yo runner of the season on Friday.

Red Letter did make all in her 2yo days, so I suppose she could be a pace spoiler for Fallen Angel, but it is hard to see her winning this.  Certainly harder than her [7/1] price suggests, for all she has had an outing.

I am not sure if See The Fire was clinging on for dear life, or winning eased-down snugly, at odds of [1/3] on her return at Nottingham. I rather suspect it was the former, and against a 100-rated off levels, too.

But if she turns up in the same mood as when winning this race by a stunning 12 lengths last season then it is all over, red rover.

Granted, her subsequent efforts in Group 1 company didn’t quite hit those heights, but it will be a tad disappointing if she can’t take care of these.

I’d rather be a backer than a layer of her at [5/4] – but doing neither would be more preferable.

4.05pm York – 10/1 Action play be more profitable than his namesake’s staking plan in the Cas

I quite envy those who have bullish opinions in races in which there is limited form to go – that reminds me, the barrier trials discussion has rather quietened, hasn’t it? – as I just tend to switch off from a betting perspective with so many unknowns.

But, as I always drone on, is there any other kind of perspective when it comes to horse racing?

I shan’t keep you long here then but Action looks a little overpriced at 10s.

That reminds me Brighton had better get their ground sorted by June 30th as a Racing Post reunion has been inked in for that day by organiser Jim Austin – and that usually means missing the last train after a dawn-to-dusk skinful in the sea air, and a costly casino run to round it off with Bruce “Action” Jackson and JK….

Anyway, Action and stablemate Christmas Day boast the most experience in here with five runs apiece, and the former has the best form in the race courtesy of his Donny Group 1 second to Hawk Mountain. The third to Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge on better ground was a cracking effort, too.

Of course, the fact that he was badly chinned on his return at Sandown and Ryan Moore rides Christmas Day means that he is a bigger price than his form demands, and 10s is a touch too big.

The Sandown run wasn’t great but it is half-interesting to see the first-time tongue-tie he wore there has been dispensed with here. That would be Moore feedback I imagine (maybe not), but double-figure quotes are not justified by his 2yo exploits going into this race.

I may chuck a score his way at 10s win-only, which is available in three places as this race preview goes live at 11.41am  (just the eight runners in here, so be careful each-way punters).

1.COURSE DETAILS

YORK

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Whole course verti drained

Going Stick: 6.0, Wednesday 8.10am

Readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 5.6; Centre – 5.9; Stands Side 6.0

Wind speed and direction forecast for 1.45pm Wednesday; Northerly headwind, 11mph gusting to 26mph.

Moisture Meter 37%

Rails: Planned rail positions from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight: Wednesday – Innermost. Thursday – 3m out: Friday – 6m out.

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail

Wednesday morning course update: A damp, overcast early Wednesday morning with spits of rain. 1mm rain overnight, making 18.4 mm rain in May. Met Office forecast; Wednesday and Thursday – frequent blustery showers with sunny spells, occasionally heavy with a risk of thunder. Friday – mainly dry with some bright or sunny spells. Feeling rather cool, 12 – 13 degrees Live links to the Met Office and our Weather Station are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk Home Page, click through for full Going report.

Yr.no latest (6.27am Wednesday): 5.6mm for rest of Wednesday from 6.27am; 3.9mm Thursday

SALISBURY (3.5mm rain on Wednesday morning so far as at 8.19am)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Going Stick: 8.2, Tuesday 7.45am

Stalls: 5F, 6F – Far side 1M2F – Inside 1M4F – Stands side

Wednesday course update: A mix of overcast and bright spells, temperatures cooler this week – around 14’c ; breezy midweek, and with only relatively low amounts of rain. The best chance of showers are Wed 13th & Thurs 14th. 3.5MM RAIN EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

Watering: Watered 10mm on the whole course across Wed 6th /Thurs 7th. Watered 10mm on the whole course across Fri 8th /Sat 9th. Watered the last 5.5f with 10mm on Mon 11th. Will water the remainder of the Straight, and the loop section with 10mm on Tues 12th. Wed 13th watering – TBC

Yr.no latest (6.27am Wednesday):  1.9mm Wednesday; 2.8mm Thursday

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Ben Lund visor Individualiste; 2.40pm Salisbury; 0-1

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.20pm York:  Jakajaro (drawn 18), Luna A Inbhir Nis (2), Heavenly Heather (9), Eternal Sunshine (3), Arklow Lad (prom – 14), Brazen Bolt (19), Lethal Nymph (15), Copper Knight (4), Hammer The Hammer (13) Against The Wind (1), Bergerac (17), I’m Next (7)

2.40pm Salisbury (flag start): Alfred Boucher?, Gallivanted, Tryfan, Anniversary

2.55pm York: Point Lynas (1), First Principle (17), Maybe Not (prom – 19), Cerulean Bay (6), Mirsky (2)

3.30pm York: Fallen Angel (2) – Red Letter did made all in her 2yo career; Fairy Glen is a NR as at 8.31am (bruised foot)

4.05pm York: Item (1), Action (7)

4.40pm York: Aspect Island (2), Boston Dan (3), Simplify (8), Wor Faayth (6), Dickensian (7), Revival Power (9), Exclamation (11)

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  William Haggas, John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Andrew Balding,  Ralph Beckett (4-1 and 7-2 winners on Monday), Harry Derham, James Owen, Jonathan Portman, Parkinson and Smith, Jack Channon, Grace Harris

Fair: Robert Cowell, Ed Walker,, David O’Meara, Simon and Ed Crisford,  Kevin Ryan, Clive Cox, Richard and Peter Fahey, Ruth Carr (9-1 winner on Monday),  Jim Goldie, Karl Burke, Tim Easterby, Charlie Fellowes (fair/good), Roger Fell (7-1 winner on Monday), Katie Scott, Ian Williams (fair/good), Tracy Waggott, Paul Midgley (fair/good), Eve Johnson Houghton, Harry Charlton, Dan Horsford, Nigel Tinkler (12-1 and 9-2 winners on Tuesday – so good/fair), Rod Millman (fair/moderate)

Moderate:  Brian Ellison, Antony Brittain, Mick Appleby, Ed Bethell, Owen Burrows, Hamad Al Jehani, Coyle and Wood, Charlie Appleby, Ger Lyons, Charles Hills (very welcome winner at Bath on Tuesday)

Don’t know (small samples): Geoff Oldroyd, Sheena West, Ben Lund, John Ryan