TONY CALVIN: COULD a 40/1 chance be the Cock Of The North again at York today?

2.20pm York – 15/2 Air Force One may not be a useless passenger here

Squealer is a NR as at 10.08am (going).

It is now good at York.

I am not going to pretend I have a strong betting opinion in this maximum-field 22-runner 5f handicap – and I probably won’t get involved – but I can certainly see why Air Force One is challenging for favouritism at [15/2].

The Geoff Oldroyd stable operates at an impressive strike-rate given the limited talent and numbers at their disposal – though they have been upgrading of late, I believe – and Air Force One did very well to overcome significant trouble in running to sneak home by a head from I’m Next (also goes in here) at Beverley last month.

I’d say connections would have been delighted with the 2lb rise, especially as the runner-up won next time and is now 6lb higher.

Air Force One won here last July and then went on to run two screamers in defeat on the course, latterly by just a neck off a 3lb lower mark than this in September (the winner is now rated 7lb higher after subsequently winning a Listed race), and he just about looks as solid as it gets in a race of nature.

He is the one the other 21 have to beat – and that low draw in six is no hardship on today’s evidence – though Corolla Point, in 11, is the current [9/2] favourite though, and that price may be coming under pressure.

Corolla Point and Air Force One are only 4s and 5s respectively, of 5.40am on Thursday. I’d say they are unlikely to get too much lower, if at all;  though, saying that, Air Force One looks pretty strong at 5s.

2.40pm Salisbury – Should Alfred be 33s, for all the doubts?

This 1m6f handicap has a flag start, so prepare to be swearing at the TV early doors when your horse proves a reluctant hero early doors without the rigid familiarity of the stalls.

At least they have 1m6f to rectify any tardy starts – unlike that Ripon farce at the weekend – and another aspect of this race to be wary of is that we have forecast rain on heavily-watered ground.

They have already had 3.5mm of rain by 8.19am on Wednesday morning.

It wasn’t initially a particularly appealing betting proposition to me – though I may relent and have a throwaway tenner on him – but I was pretty surprised to see Alfred Boucher put in at 33s here (by one organisation; three firms).

Yes, he probably has had at least one major issue since being touched off a short-head by Trawlerman in the Ebor in August 2022 but he is a colossal 16lb lower than that day and he showed a bit more on his most recent start at Kempton in October.

The handicapper has obviously played ball with him – that Ebor run is only five runs ago, if nearly four years – and it can be seen as a positive that the owner is persevering with the horse as a 10yo.

All things considered, the 33s is fair risk-to-reward play for this course winner, with the obvious nod to a total blow-out. I’ve had a tenner, just in case.

He is now a general 20/1 chance as of 5.40am on Thursday morning but he could be 50s in the blink of an eye given his profile; the Betfair market had only done £1,276 on this race at that stage.

2.55pm York – 40/1 Old could be the Cock Of The North again

Wednesday is not a big betting day for me – pretty modest stakes all round, in fact – but I have to be true to my pre-Spring Cup comments.

And have a very small bet on Old Cock at 28s each way, available in two places. Get the best place terms you can.

I actually think he may drift to 33s+, fixed odds, given his profile.

He has done – he is now 33s in a few places and [55.0] on Betfair as at 5.40am. 

And a general 40s at 8.16am (and has hit of 75.0 on Betfair). I’ll have a small press-up later if he drifts again.

Right, let’s start with the negatives, so we could have been some time here. I’ll abbreviate though.

Trainer Antony Brittain wouldn’t have his small string in the best of form and Old Cock only beat four of his 24 rivals on his debut for him in the aforementioned Spring Cup at Newbury last month.

But, as I said in the preview for that Newbury race, I sensed that would be a stepping stone to a return trip to York for this very race, the one he won so snugly for Ed Bethell last season.

He is only 1lb higher here and I think you can forgive him his two subsequent defeats here last season as Callum Rodriguez didn’t shine on him on either occasion.

He won second time out in 2024 and 2025 and hopefully history can repeat itself here.

Probably not, but let’s see.

Sea Force is as strong as Old Cock is weak; he is a general 5/2 chance now, with 11/4 available in just one place. 

The power of Haggas.

Shout, 13/2 yesterday, has also been cut into a best-priced 4s.

3.30pm York – Just the four in the (Kate) Middleton now – and See The Fire is likely to be the winning Princess

I’m not sure if anyone was considering an each-way bet in the Group 2 (Kate) Middleton Stakes but they were thwarted early on if so, as Fairy Glen, who ranged from 12s to 20s, came out at 8.31am on Wednesday with a bruised foot.

Actually, given the colouring of horses, how do trainers know it is a bruised foot and not something else?

Anyway, this looks set up for a repeat winning bid for See The Fire , which is why she is a [5/4] chance.

Fallen Angel should get an uncontested lead here but she lacks a recent run, all her best form to date is over a mile (though her Group 1 run over 1m2f in the 2024 Prix de l’Opera was a good effort) and she carries a 3lb penalty. You certainly can’t write her off but 3s is her price and nothing more.

Diamond Rain has only 2lb to find with See The Fire on these terms, but of course I have been bleating on about the form of the Charlie Appleby stable for a while now. Normal winning service will be resumed shortly I am sure, but I’d be steering well clear until it does. They have not been finishing off their races.

It is quite something to think that Appleby only has his first 2yo runner of the season on Friday.

Red Letter did make all in her 2yo days, so I suppose she could be a pace spoiler for Fallen Angel, but it is hard to see her winning this.  Certainly harder than her [7/1] price suggests, for all she has had an outing.

I am not sure if See The Fire was clinging on for dear life, or winning eased-down snugly, at odds of [1/3] on her return at Nottingham. I rather suspect it was the former, and against a 100-rated off levels, too.

But if she turns up in the same mood as when winning this race by a stunning 12 lengths last season then it is all over, red rover.

Granted, her subsequent efforts in Group 1 company didn’t quite hit those heights, but it will be a tad disappointing if she can’t take care of these.

I’d definitely rather be a backer than a layer of her at [5/4] – but doing neither would be more preferable.

Nothing has changed much overnight betting-wise. See The Fire is now a best-priced 11/10.

4.05pm York – 10/1 Action play be more profitable than his namesake’s staking plan in the Cas

I quite envy those who have bullish opinions in races in which there is limited form to go – that reminds me, the barrier trials discussion has rather quietened, hasn’t it? – as I just tend to switch off from a betting perspective with so many unknowns.

But, as I always drone on, is there any other kind of perspective when it comes to horse racing?

I shan’t keep you long here then but Action looks a little overpriced at 10s.

Racing Post and Brighton

That reminds me Brighton had better get their ground sorted by June 30th as a Racing Post reunion has been inked in for that day by organiser Jim Austin – and that usually means missing the last train after a dawn-to-dusk skinful in the sea air, and a costly casino run to round it off with Bruce “Action” Jackson and JK….

Anyway, Action and stablemate Christmas Day boast the most experience in here with five runs apiece, and the former has the best form in the race courtesy of his Donny Group 1 second to Hawk Mountain. The third to Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge on better ground was a cracking effort, too.

Of course, the fact that he was badly chinned on his return at Sandown and Ryan Moore rides Christmas Day means that he is a bigger price than his form demands, and 10s is a touch too big.

The Sandown run wasn’t great but it is half-interesting to see the first-time tongue-tie he wore there has been dispensed with here. That would be Ryan Moore feedback I imagine, and double-figure quotes are not justified by his 2yo exploits going into this race.

I may chuck a score his way at 10s win-only, which is available in three places as this race preview goes live at 11.41am  (just the eight runners in here, so be careful each-way punters).

I had to settle for 9s myself, to the tune of a whopping 40 notes in the end.

Action is available at just 9/2 now. Stablemate Christmas Day into 2s.

4.40pm York – Plenty to love about 11/4 Aspect – bar the current price maybe (I was wrong there)

Wor Faayth is a NR (going).

The two standard-setters in here take out over 50 per cent at the market, even at best prices, with Aspect Island just shading favouritism at [11/4] over Revival Power at 3s.

The once-rated Doncaster winner Manatee Mehmas – they knew what they had there as he won on debut at [5/6] – is the potential joker in the pack, but that has been priced into the market at [7/2].

I won’t be having a bet but, rather boringly, I would agree that Aspect Island is the most likely winner.

Trainer James Owen has banged in more than 10 winners on the Flat every month since November , while at the same time chugging along nicely over jumps, and he really has developed into an operator of serious note.

His Aspect Island shaped well against experienced, older Group race sprinters over 6f in the Abernant on his return, and back to what could be his optimum 5f trip and returning to his own age group, he clearly holds a big chance, though maybe you’d like to have seen him drawn a bit higher than two.

At prices ranging from [9/4] to [11/4] though – and the latter price could be going – I can easily let win unbacked.

If indeed he does win.

Oh, and as for the race header, I am aware it is Aspects (not Aspect) Of Love but I was struggling…

Aspect Island is now a general 9/4 chance, and going one way in the betting, it seems (now just 6/4 tops as at 8.16am).

Revival Power is out to 11/2, and Manatee Mehmas at 5s.

But I have to stress it is very early days for these markets.

1.COURSE DETAILS

YORK (3mm rain in total to 6.15pm; dry overnight)

GOING: Good

Whole course verti drained

Going Stick: 5.8, Thursday 8.25am

Readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 5.6; Centre – 5.5; Stands Side 5.5

Northerly 8mph gusting to 25 mph

Moisture Meter 38%

Rails: Planned rail positions from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight: Wednesday – Innermost. Thursday – 3m out: Friday – 6m out.

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail

Thursday morning course update: Dry overnight and a cool, dry and fresh Thursday morning. 3mm rain Wednesday, making 21.4mm rain in May. Met Office forecast; Thursday – frequent blustery showers with sunny spells, occasionally heavy with a risk of thunder. Friday – mainly dry with some bright or sunny spells. Feeling rather cool, 12 – 13 degrees Live links to the Met Office and our Weather Station are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk Home Page, click through for full Going report.

Yr.no latest (5.49am Thursday): 3mm Thursday starting 2pm-ish

SALISBURY

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Going Stick: 8.1, Thursday 6.45am

Stalls: 5F, 6F – Far side 1M2F – Inside 1M4F – Stands side

Thursday morning course update: A cool week, windy on Wednesday. 4.5MM RAIN IN SHOWERS DURING WEDNESDAY. Thursday is expected to be another cool day, around 12’c, , some early bright spells, with light showers, then becoming more overcast, with the chance of showers developing in the afternoon (around 2mm). First light shower at 6am with 0.3mm.

Watering: Watered 20mm on the whole course Wed 6th to Sat 9th. Watered 10mm on the whole course Mon 11th to Tues 12th.

Yr.no latest (5.49am Thursday):  3.8mm Thursday, starting 3pm-ish

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Ben Lund visor Individualiste; 2.40pm Salisbury; 0-1

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.20pm York:  Jakajaro (drawn 18), Luna A Inbhir Nis (2), Heavenly Heather (9), Eternal Sunshine (3), Arklow Lad (prom – 14), Brazen Bolt (19), Lethal Nymph (15), Copper Knight (4), Hammer The Hammer (13) Against The Wind (1), Bergerac (17), I’m Next (7) – Squealer is a NR

2.40pm Salisbury (flag start): Alfred Boucher?, Gallivanted, Tryfan, Anniversary

2.55pm York: Point Lynas (1), First Principle (17), Maybe Not (prom – 19), Cerulean Bay (6), Mirsky (2)

3.30pm York: Fallen Angel (2) – Red Letter did made all in her 2yo career –  Fairy Glen is a NR as at 8.31am (bruised foot)

4.05pm York: Item (1), Action (7)

4.40pm York: Aspect Island (2), Boston Dan (3), Simplify (8),  Dickensian (7), Revival Power (9), Exclamation (11)- Wor Faayth is a NR

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  William Haggas (great form), John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Andrew Balding ,  Ralph Beckett (4-1 and 7-2 winners on Monday), Harry Derham, James Owen, Jonathan Portman, Parkinson and Smith, Jack Channon, Grace Harris

Fair: Robert Cowell, Ed Walker,, David O’Meara, Simon and Ed Crisford,  Kevin Ryan, Clive Cox, Richard and Peter Fahey, Ruth Carr (9-1 winner on Monday),  Jim Goldie, Karl Burke, Tim Easterby, Charlie Fellowes (fair/good), Roger Fell (7-1 winner on Monday), Katie Scott, Ian Williams (fair/good), Tracy Waggott, Paul Midgley (fair/good), Eve Johnson Houghton (winner on Wednesday), Harry Charlton, Dan Horsford, Nigel Tinkler (12-1 and 9-2 winners on Tuesday – so good/fair), Rod Millman (fair/moderate), Charles Hills (very welcome winner at Bath on Tuesday and another on the same track on Wednesday)

Moderate:  Brian Ellison, Antony Brittain, Mick Appleby, Ed Bethell, Owen Burrows, Hamad Al Jehani, Coyle and Wood, Charlie Appleby, Ger Lyons

Don’t know (small samples): Geoff Oldroyd, Sheena West, Ben Lund, John Ryan