TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s copy – and stats and info

1.30pm Chester – How could you possibly have put Roman Dragon in at 12s here?

Arklow Lad (drawn 13 of 13) and Jakajaro (drawn 10) are NRs as of Wednesday afternoon.

Both are going-related.

They were followed by Dapper Valley on Thursday morning.

You get some very curious prices at the 48-hour stage – actually make that very suspicious, to my ever-cynical mind – and quite remarkably, Roman Dragon was put in at double-figures by some firms on Tuesday, with one outfit (three firms) actually going 12s.

He is now just a best-priced [7/2] chance (and 5/2 and shortening as of 5.30pm).

Little wonder why.

I know hindsight is a wonderful thing and all that, but how could you have possibly gone 12s about last year’s winner, coming here off the same mark and out of stall three,  with Oisin Murphy back up, with the horse having been dropped a very generous 7lb for his last four runs.

He has a superb record around here, with seven wins, and there is nothing not to like about his chance. Sure, he has hardly fired recently but he has been racing in Bahrain and he was a 40s poke for a tee-up job back on turf at Leicester last time.

And I seem to recall Hugo Palmer targets this meeting…

But the ship has well and truly sailed as regards his price at the moment; he clearly has a huge chance, though.

Ruby  Ruby, Ruby?

Of course there are plenty of credible rivals and one miss-step could cost him the race – this is a 5f handicap, after all – and Seven Questions and Ruby’s Profit, in traps one and two respectively, are obvious dangers.

But that is why they are second and third favourites.

Ruby’s Profit is actually [15/2] in a place – a point bigger than she is elsewhere – and that seems a fair bet if you can access it (11/2 tops as of 5.30pm).

She uncharacteristically blew the start when tried in a hood at Bath on Monday but that headgear is off here, and I have her down as the leader going into the bend from stall two here (she will be 10s+ in a instant if she misses the kick again).

Of course, she may get picked up regardless, as she did when a length second at this meeting last season, but she will give you a good spin if she gets away as she normally does.

The quick turnaround is a question mark but sprinters can take it better than most.

Roman Dragon, playing a home game, casts a huge shadow over this sprint, though.

1.45pm Huntingdon – Hard work for the course

Ice In The Veins is a NR as at 7.26am (infected foot). Down to 5 runners.

Huntingdon have had it hard with their ground management, it seems, having had to put on 110mm of watering in the past eight days to even get to their current state of good, good to firm in places.

80mm in the last six days in fact, with another 10mm to come on Wednesday.

So it literally would have been hard had they not intervened.

It’s sad, then, to see them get only 26 runners for their Thursday meeting, including a match in the opener (and yes, Dan Skelton, with his impossibly large string, has one of the runners – good work for his owners, of which he appears to be one!).

And that is before non-runners kick in.

This 13k 0-120 handicap chase is low-grade stuff, and I am happy to leave it untouched.

2.05pm Chester – Strange to have this 2yo maiden on ITV

Dubai Champion is a NR as at 11.04am (going).

You know when a multi-day meeting is struggling to fill when you see a maiden on the terrestrial running order, and we get one of those here over 5f110yd.

And a 2yo one at that, with only one of the 11 runners having raced more than once, with four newcomers who may or may not have been for a barrier trial.

Throw in the occasionally-daunting Chester factor for inexperienced youngsters, and this race a big fat “no thank you” written all over it.

Caturra Lights has been stuck in as the early [11/4] favourite but his [66/1] Musselburgh debut third isn’t looking as good as it did at the time.

Maybe one of the Hugo Palmer trio win this, but I don’t really care, as I won’t be betting.

I doubt I’ll be alone there, either.

The 4.10pm (a 0-90 1m2f+ handicap featuring a full field of 14) or the decent nine-runner 1m4f+ handicap in the same grade at 4.45pm should have obviously been on the box instead of this race.

Strange one.

2.35pm Chester – O’Brien for his eighth win in the race in the last nine years?

Morshdi is a NR as at 2.53pm.

I am not sure how strong the Feilden Stakes won by Morshdi was, and that isn’t a knee-jerk reaction to the runner-up putting in an absolute stinker in a first-time hood subsequently.

Morshdi’s [14/1] win certainly took the market by surprise – and that can certainly be viewed as a positive if he won when not being fully tuned up – and I am not sold on the depth of the form (Shayem was beaten 6 1/2 lengths).

Of course, he is open to a ton of improvement and the extra trip looks to be a plus on pedigree, but he carries a 3lb penalty here and he has his work cut out against Constitution River, for all this race doesn’t have depth and 3s isn’t a bad price, I guess.

Constitution River is available at evens (nearly 5/4 on the exchange) and he is an unpenalised Group 2 winner, as that success came eight days before penalties kicked in for the purposes of this race.

It’s not a race I have a betting opinion on, as you wouldn’t be bowled over if anything in here took the spoils, as the likes of Generic and Golden Story are obviously totally unexposed.

And the favourite’s stablemate Flushing Meadows could be suited by stepping up in trip, for all 1m2f+ would appear to stretch him on pedigree.

Aidan O’Brien has won this race seven times in the last eight years (his Ontario finished last and slightly lame in the year he didn’t).

It’s a shrug-your-shoulders race for me.

3.05pm Chester – Wait to see if all eight go

Rahiebb is a NR as at 3.03pm. So down to seven runners.

We have the dangerous dead-eight in the Ormonde Stakes, so I’d keep the each-way bets on hold for now.

Aidan O’Brien is mustard at this Chester May meeting and his two runners dominate the market here, with form horse Jan Brueghel available at [6/4] and last year’s winner Illinois at [10/3].  Those are the top prices, so the reality is that they will be probably shorter with your bookmaker (s) if you wish to back them.

Stable tours should be taken with a large pinch of salt in the main but this is what O’Brien told the Racing Post recently about Jan Brueghel.

He said: “He could go back to the Coronation Cup again, having won it last season, and he’d have a run before it. Obviously the Coronation Cup has a different look to it this year, up a lot in prize-money, so we’ll see how he gets on.”

He is the best horse in here by some way on his 1/2-length defeat of Calandagan at Epsom last season, and that quote would suggest this is a stepping stone (mind you, O’Brien was hardly verbose throughout that interview).

Of course, he may be good enough anyway as he has 9lb and more in hand of this field (he actually gets 5lb from Sons And Lovers and 3lb from the admirable Al Qareem) – he will win this if he runs to his best – but I’d be fighting shy of backing him myself at the current odds.

Illinois may be the more here-and-now model from Ballydoyle , having beaten Al Qareem in this race first time up last season, but it may be a mistake to pigeon-hole this as a match, with the Leger runner-up Rahiebb in here.

I’ll have another look at this race tomorrow, close to the off, once we have a better idea if all eight go.

3.40pm Chester – Have the Strength to say no

Archer Royal is a NR at 6.38am (going), followed by Aqua Bear.

Even putting the Chester factor aside, this is one tricky 3yo 0-105 handicap and this is not a race I will be having a bet in.

There could be a big early bunfight for the lead, with pace in stalls one, two and three, so maybe you want to chance your luck and pick a closer.

Maybe Strength Of Spirit at 8s with extra places could be the each-way answer, as the course winner (I think he is the only horse to have raced here before) comes here in good form and should be coming home well if getting the breaks.

But, to be perfectly honest with you, I’d maybe want bigger than 8s, he says greedily, as he has gone up 5lb for his two runs this season and there are more unexposed horses in here, most obviously the likes of Factual and McMurray, the market leaders.

THURSDAY’S DETAILS

CHESTER (3mm put on whole course on Wednesday evening)

GOING: Good

GOING STICK: 7.4, Thursday 7.15am (was 7.1 on Wednesday)

Rails: Rail will be out approximately 4 yards from 4f – 1.5f and 7 yards from the 6f – 4f.

Stalls: 1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside

Thursday course update: 10.8mm rain over the last 6 days. Dry over the last 3 days. Today is forecast to be mostly dry and overcast with a 40% chance of rain from 3pm, highs of 15’C and a 10mph Southerly breeze.

Watering: Full course vertidrained. 4mm applied on the 28th April evening. 3mm applied overnight 29th April. 3mm applied overnight 30th April from the 1.5f – 6f. 3mm applied last night on the whole course.

Yr.no latest (6.49am Thursday):  Dry, overcast and 15 degrees

HUNTINGDON (90mm applied in last seven days)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK: Chase: 7.5; Hurdles : 8.5 (Thursday 6am)

• 1:45pm: Race distance is now +47y to 2m 4f 16y

• 2:15pm: Race distance is now +81y to 2m 5f 6y

• 2:45pm: Race distance is now +62y to 2m 7f 191y

• 3:15pm: Race distance is now +81y to 2m 3f 218y

• 3:50pm: Race distance is now +108y to 3m 1f 118y

• 4:20pm: Race distance is now +68y to 2m 19y

Watering: 80mm applied across the last 6days. 10mm being applied today to the whole track (Wednesday)

Yr.no latest (6.49am Thursday):  Dry and bright, 14 degrees

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back on these horses)

1.30pm Chester: Marty Hopkirk, Grandlad, Dyonisos, Accrual, Blinky , Copper Knight, Manila Scouse, Hoodie Hoo, Mahajaras Express

3.40pm Chester: The Resdev Scholar, Illy’s Roo, Mayaada

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Michael and David Easterby cheekpieces; Canon’s House, 1.30pm Chester; 4-40 since 2021

David Loughnane hood; Penny Capri; 2.05pm Chester; 4-30 since 2016

George Scott hood; Command The Stars, 3.40pm Chester; 2-60 since 2016

PACE MAPS (manually assessed) – horses can change their run-styles here depending where drawn at Chester

1.30pm Chester: Stratusnine (7), Smart Vision (8), Canon’s House (5), Ruby’s Profit (2), Seven Questions (prom – 1) – Jakajaro is a NR, as is Arklow Lad

1.45pm Huntingdon: Hurricane Bay, Pep Talking, Koapey – Ice In The Veins a NR

2.05pm Chester (limited evidence): Donegal Rose? (7)

2.35pm Chester: Shayem (2), Constitution River (4), Flushing Meadows (6), Generic (5)

3.05pm Chester: Sons And Lovers (2), Al Qareem (8), Illinois? (6), Jan Brueghel (4), Mount Atlas (7)

3.40pm Chester: Gentle George (2), Command The Stars (10), Caballo Grande (1), Moonfall (12), Monarchs Gold (3), Utmost Good Faith (13), Factual (9) – Archer Royal and Aqua Bear are NRs

THERE are also four NRs in the 4.10pm and one in the 4.45pm.

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Dan Skelton (very good), Andrew Balding (big sample – Chester winner on Wednesday), John and Thady Gosden, James Owen (very good – 25/1 Chester winner on Wednesday), Aidan O’Brien, Karl Burke, Pam Sly, Lucy Wadham (very small sample – so maybe don’t know), William Haggas, Roger Varian, George Scott, Ollie Sangster (winners on Monday and Tuesday)

Fair:  Hugo Palmer, Ian Williams (double on Wednesday), David Loughnane,  Richard and Peter Fahey,  Kevin Phillipart De Foy (fair/good), Richard Hannon (winner on Monday), Tim Easterby (two 4-1 winners on Monday, followed by a 10-1 scorer), Adrian Keatley, Fergal O’Brien (fair/good), Ed Bethell, Robert Cowell (fair/moderate), Michael and David Easterby, Newland and Insole, James Horton, Ben Haslam, David Evans (fair/good), R Mike Smith (fair/moderate), Michael Bell (could do with more winners – winner on Wednesday), George Boughey, Warren Greatrex, Joseph O’Brien (fair/good – winner on Tuesday), Mick Appleby

Moderate:   Craig Lidster (smallish sample), Jessica Macey, Nigel Tinkler

Don’t know: Billy Aprahamian, Michael Wigham (one winner; two runners)