TONY CALVIN: Three bets to consider on a manic day on ITV on Friday

Two new features in the stats and information section, and news on column

I had a question about this column in Monday’s The Racing Room podcast, which I like to think I dealt with honestly and extensively.

Please go and have a listen. It can be found on the AKBets website (hit the “Tips” tab in the homepage and you will find the link to it).

Quite frankly, I have got much more important things to worry about at the moment – family and their health trumps everything – but I was happy to deal with the topic at length.

As long as the articles are well received (by most….), then that is good enough for me. I will put in the work, write extensively (giving the pros and not ignoring the cons), and supply as many facts and stats and angles as possible.

And also let you know about the relevant betting moves, and occasionally some bizarre pricing by firms.

There are a couple of examples below, actually.

I have also decided to up the written analysis for each race, and add two new sections to the stats/info section.

Right, ITV have kindly ruined the whole of my Wednesday, and early Thursday morning, by putting on 10 races from three different tracks on Friday (the info below is incredibly time-consuming, as I do it manually, but it is hopefully worth it), so let’s crack on in chronological order.

Lukewarm advice, at a minimum, will be given on every single race….

Right, Thursday morning sweep and update done, so here goes.

Spoiler alert: this is a biggie.

1.30pm York – 10/1 Navagio and 14/1 Thunder Roar the pick of the prices

As the forecast at the start of the week predicted, the rain duly arrived at York and we are now dealing with soft, heavy in places.

Connections would have declared on that ground, so it’ll be disappointing if we get many non-runners for that reason.

It could well dry out to soft by race-time, anyway.

Hafeet Alain won this race from trap one on soft ground last season and, similarly berthed, I hope Navagio can repeat the dose from that inside stall this year.

I am not a fan of tipping and backing horses from extreme draws, as you are Kilroy-Silk shafted if there is a bias against you (and as this is the first race of a two-day meeting, so we are in the dark if one shows itself) but I am happy to give Navagio another chance after siding with him last time out at Haydock.

That draw is a nagging doubt for me though in the ground.

For most of that Haydock contest, he looked like winning easily – he hit 1.31 in running – but after coasting to the lead 2f out he found disappointingly little and he had to settle for third.

But the pace of that race collapsed pretty early on and it could be that he found himself in front far too soon there, so I am forgiving of that tame late effort.

Given a stronger pace here (which is not assured admittedly, even though there are 16 runners), I think he will be seen to much better effect.

Remember, this is a horse who stayed on strongly, from off the pace, to finish third in the Lincoln (after meeting trouble in running) off an 8lb higher mark than this earlier in the season, so he has to be a leading player if things pan out for him here.

It’s a very competitive race – Thunder Roar especially looks very fairly priced at 14s and 12s given he is a course winner and 3lb well-in after his recent Ascot fourth – and he has no experience of the track (and this is the first time his jockey has ridden him), but the 10s (and 9s if you can’t get that ) looks very acceptable to me.

You can get five or six places each way in this race, and I am not going to put you off if you want that safety net on your side and you can access, accordingly.

But that’s your decision. I’ll put him up 10s win-only here. That draw in one troubles me, but not enough to put me off at 10s.

I’ll definitely have a saver on Thunder Roar, drawn 10, too. Any 10s or bigger is good but take the 14s and 12s and 11s if you can, so I am happy to add him in as a saver, here.

That Ascot run last week could have been rated even higher than it was – he had no right to get as close as he did in that Classified Stakes at the weights – and he won the 7f handicap on this card last year.

And maybe I’ll add in Zealot as well if I can snaffle the 16s available in six spots.

I regularly back three or more in these big-field handicaps, and that trio will love the ground.

1.47pm Newmarket- 14/1 La Bellota the token selection in very tricky opener

First things first, it is good to soft, good in places, in places at Newmarket. It has eased a bit overnight.

I have at least nine of the 12 in here being forward-goers, so this could be a proper burn-up.

The three more conservatively ridden horses are La Bellota, fresh (or otherwise) from a spin in the Abbaye on Sunday, Coto De Caza and Pearl Of Windsor.

I won’t be having a bet in the race but, even though the quick turnaround from Longchamp is an obvious potential negative, La Bellota is probably the pick of the prices at [14/1].

I only just clocked late on he was a gelding and not, as the same suggested, a filly.

He wasn’t disgraced from stall 11 last weekend and his earlier second in the Mill Reef gives him a fair each-way chance in this, as only The Strikin Viking is higher rated.

2.05pm York – 7/2 Amiloc could be a class apart in here

I won’t take up too much of your time with this 100k 2yo race over 7f. This will be gruelling stuff for the youngsters, and few have experienced ground as soft as this before.

When I started looking at the race on Wednesday afternoon, I thought Mr Fantastic ticked the most boxes and he was solid enough at 8s in a place (taken soon after admittedly, and he is now 7s), though it has to be said Timeform called his second at Ascot as coming on good to soft, and not the official soft.

His overall profile makes him one of the form horses in here, albeit none is a particular standard-setter, perhaps with the exception of the unbeaten Amiloc, though he carries a 3lb penalty for his Class 4 success at Kempton last time (under a 7lb penalty from a wide-margin subsequent winner) in what looks a decent speed figure.

You can see why this well-related gelding is the [7/2] favourite in a couple of spots – and he is actually as short as [9/4] in places – and, although his two successes to date have been on the all-weather, his dam did win on soft, which gives you some encouragement that he will handle the ground.

It could be that he is a class above these.

2.25pm Newmarket – 9/2 Flight an each-way fancy

I hear Amo Racing have been in the news this week – I’ll have a few things to say on that subject in Monday’s podcast, where I will be coming to you uncorked from Cork – and they have the [7/2] favourite in here, Cathedral.

Hugely impressive on her debut at Lingfield, this 800,000 euros breeze-up purchase could easily put another 36k+ bags into the owner’s coffers by winning this, but her potential is fully factored into her price against a much better class of opposition.

This is game of unknowns to a certain extent, as she meets three similarly unbeaten fillies, but the pick of the opposition on form and on the clock is undoubtedly Flight.

Indeed, if you wanted a bet in the race, an each-way punt on her at the general [9/2] is fair.

She finished third to Desert Flower and January in the May Hill at Doncaster last time, and they are the first and second favourites for the Fillies’ Mile later in the card.

Flight is vulnerable to one of the sexier ones, but I imagine connections would be disappointed if three of these finished in front of her.

2.40pm York – 14/1 Forest Gate overpriced to beat the big two

The talent drain is once again advertised here, as the 100k 1m6f 0-105 has only mustered seven runners, in what is effectively a 74-95 handicap.

However, at least it has attracted progressive, in-form horses – five of the seven won last time out, with the other pair coming here on the back of solid efforts – so maybe some of these will be snapped up by the Australian market for stayers afterwards, too.

You’d hope The Reverend, part-owned by Tony Bloom, would stay here come what way, and the market reckons he is by far the most likely winner at a top-priced [2/1].

That assessment should come as no surprise after what he did at Ascot last time on soft ground and in first-time cheekpieces (retained here), though he did get spanked 9lb for that dominant win.

However, given his lightly-raced profile, he could take a fair bit of whacking.

It is a decent race though, as I said, and he does have his 1m6f stamina to prove, unlike a few in here.

In fact, impressive Haydock 1m6f winner Master Builder is not that far off challenging for favouritism at a best-priced [9/4]. Indeed, one firm actually has him shading Mr Reverend in the market.

Outside of those two, Forest Gate is surely the overpriced one at [14/1]. That is available in two places, with 12s also acceptable.

He is actually 1lb well-in under his 6lb penalty for his near-four length win on heavy ground over 1m2f at Epsom, and he could well be the sole pace angle in here.

He steps up half a mile in trip, which is the major question he has to answer, but his sire Waldgeist is a big stamina influence and I wouldn’t lay him at 14s and 12s.

If you want an interest in the race, he is your man, though of course the top two present a fair barrier to success.

3.00pm Newmarket – 7/1 Witness Stand the pick of a Challenging bunch

There is no shortage of pace in this 7f Group 2 Challenge Stakes, even if a few of these are only occasional forward-goers.

I’ll keep this brief, though.

Initially, I thought I was not going to have a bet in the race, and I was going to glibly say that if you wanted to give me a free score to chuck at the race, Witness Stand at the general 7s would be the destination.

Then I decided I was missing the bleedin’ obvious.

Officially, the joint highest-rated in here on 115, Witness Stand has taken off since being fitted with cheekpieces and he easily brushed aside English Oak by 3 lengths at Newbury last time.

Actually, given his form trajectory (on the up, as opposed to a few others in here), you could argue that 7s is very generous indeed.

In fact, I’m probably going to risk at least an apple (core) of my own money on him at the general 7s, including AKBets.

Shouldn’t he be nearer [7/2] than 7s?

He has course form (close seconds at the back-end here last term) and the merit of that Newbury win last time was backed up by the clock, and there was no disgrace in him failing by only a length to give Qirat 13lb at Goodwood previously.

Yes, he is a bet and a tip at the generally available [7/1]. 6s or bigger is fine, maybe even shorter.

3.15pm Chepstow – Maybe 4/1 Flying Fortune should be favourite

I thought Chepstow must have been bullshitting on Wednesday when calling the chase course good to soft, soft in places, and hurdles track soft.

After all, they had 27.mm combined on Monday and Tuesday.

But they only had 1mm on Wednesday, and it looks largely dry now, so it is probably as stated.

The big surprise in this Persian War Hurdle is that Paul Nicholls doesn’t have a runner – he has won it four times in recent years – as he took out his talented Teeshan, while Ben Brookhouse’s Brechin Hill was another notable overnight absentee.

We are left with a field of seven (from 15).

Ratings-wise they are nothing special – the Irish raider Intense Approach is the pick on form so far – but five of these won last time out, so let’s not be too negative, eh.

I’d just about favour the mare and 4s poke Flying Fortune, from a stable going well at the moment, but I am not itching for a bet, even if she would be my idea of the favourite. That position  is currently held by the [5/2] poke Ryan’s Rocket, who will be suited by stepping up in trip.

3.35pm Newmarket – January 4s from 16s solely on the back of a jockey booking

Quite why some firms rush out prices for races, immediately after the final fields are known, in which Ballydoyle have multiple entries, is puzzling.

The betting for the Fillies’ Mile early on Wednesday raised serious questions about competence, and perhaps plenty more besides.

Basically everyone knows, rightly or wrongly, that whatever horse’s name Ryan Moore is put alongside is going go off the shortest of Aidan O’Brien’s runners.

So why not wait until they know what he is set to ride?

Or at least monitor the BHA site like a hawk.

January was put in at the [14/1] outsider of the Ballydoyle three when the revised betting came up for this race on Wednesday, behind their then-second-favourite Dreamy at [5/2] and 11s poke Ballet Slippers. This was before the jockeys were declared.

The bookmaking outfit which did that were on a hiding to nothing and, lo and behold, the price about January had soon collapsed into 4s (the biggest around) as soon as Moore was jocked up on her.

But while that 14s was being clipped into 9s, another firm went up with 16s January, when it was there for all to see on the BHA site who was down to ride her.

Within eight minutes, that 16s was cut into 4s. And their [9/4] about Dreamy had become 5s, and 6s elsewhere.

Curious, shall we say.

Now, as I pointed out before Bubbling won at Newmarket last month, Moore doesn’t always choose his mounts, so I am not saying the current, revised betting is accurate.

But, Jesus, you – and the firms – know the betting importance of his name next to a horse, and the direction of travel, trading-wise. Though I am not for one moment suggesting any bets of any note were struck, so we are not talking “gamble” here, just prices being changed without money changing hands in the main.

Desert Flower, [6/4] in here, beat January by 1 ½ lengths in the May Hill but I have seen more emphatic defeats turned around in re-matches.

If you want to ignore the jockey angle and concentrate on the horse, then Dreamy is out to [13/2] now and she certainly picked up very well late on when winning a Group 3 over a mile at the Curragh last time.

Who knows, maybe January will be a non-runner and Moore will get on her…..

California at 80s, and without the favourites at 28/1 is no pipedream

One betting angle into this race could be California Dreamer without the favourite (s), as she will surely improve for stepping up to a mile. She is available at 40s without the favourite, and a very attractive 28s without the front two with one firm.

I can’t tip her given those prices are only available in one place, but those odds certainly appeal to me. The pedigree suggests 1m will suit, as does her run-style. Of course, she needs to improve but that is why those odds are available.

I may update once more prices are out there, but I have backed California Dreamer at 80s each way, 1./4 1,2.

That price is generally available, and the more I look at her strong-finishing fourth in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time the more I think she would have won with a clear run.

We can but dream.

3.50pm Chepstow – 11/2 Copperhead could collar shortener Good Boy Bobby

One bookmaking outfit didn’t appear to fancy Good Boy Bobby when first issuing their prices on this race just before 11.30am on Wednesday morning, as the three firms under that fluttering banner made him a 10s and 9s chance.

Fast forward to 1.15pm on Wednesday and the biggest price about him in the marketplace was only 4s.

I am not sure why you would have gone out of your way to lay him myself – especially as the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard is firing – but bookmakers operate in very mysterious ways these days, as we have seen above.

The juice has clearly gone out of Good Boy Bobby’s price now – he is now into just [7/2] – that but you can still see him running very well. And winning.

He ended last season with a whimper, which at least ensured he came down the handicap a fair chunk, so much so that he is only 1lb higher than when winning this race last year (and he followed up at Sandown afterwards).

But this could be a deep race for its kind – seven of these are 10yos, the minimum age for these veteran contests – and [11/2] chance Copperhead could be very dangerous off a mark of 117.

This is a far cry from the horse that won the Reynoldstown by 17 lengths in 2020 (rated 155 afterwards) but he comes here on the back of a win last time out in May. He hasn’t shone in his two starts here though, if you are looking for a negative. Which you always should when betting.

4.10pm Newmarket – 11/1 Sun God could shine if putting it all in

I have finally given up on Spaceport (and he is 2lb wrong here, too) so just go and watch him make all from trap one here at 33s (generally available) and bigger.

Good luck if he does, as I have willingly let him go after a very disappointing run at Haydock last time, even if this shorter trip and better ground may suit.

I thought this was a really tricky 1m4f handicap to solve, though the general [11/1] about Sun God was half-tempting.

He looked a blatant non-stayer over 1m6f in the Melrose last time, even if his pedigree is packed with stamina, and this could be a good set-up for him.

It sounds as if Hughie Morrison thinks he is a bit of a boyo (which is why he harshly took the cojones off him after a perfectly good second here in May), but a mark of 82 looks feasible if he puts it all in.

I’ll probably back him small, win-only. And, being honest, I’ll add in a tenner on Spaceport just in case, especially if he drifts to a silly price.

The case for market leaders Mount Atlas and Brioni are obvious, and the former has been cut from [15/2] and [7/1] into 4s.

That was predictable enough – it is why I am not in favour of staking plans, which prey on obvious early ricks – given the way his Ascot win last time out in July has worked out time and time again, but he has hit his price now. And the question I would ask about him is why haven’t we seen him since July 26?

That hints at a problem to me, but of course he is a leading player here. As could Blake be at 14s, in fact.

 

BETS

 

Navagio at [10/1] win-only in 1.30pm at York. Available in two places, bus 9s is fine.

Thunder Roar at [12/1] win-only (14s is available in one place, so take that if you can; 10s or bigger is fine)

Witness Stand at [7/1] win-only in 3pm at Newmarket. Available in 11 places, including with AKBets (6s or bigger is fine, even shorter maybe)

 

GOING and WEATHER

 

NEWMARKET (two-day meeting starting on Friday) – updated 9.45am Friday

Going: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.6 at 9.30am

Weather:  Largely dry now, with odd light shower

 

YORK (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

 

Going:  Soft, heavy in places

Going stick: 5.4 as at 9am Friday

Far Side – 5.6: Centre – 5.6: Stands Side – 5.4

Weather:  Largely dry now

 

CHEPSTOW (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

 

Going – Hurdles: Soft Chase: Good to soft

Going stick – Hurdles: 6.0; Chase: 6.2 (as at 7.10am Friday)

Weather:  Largely dry now

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

 

1.30pm York: Thunder Roar 3lb well-in

2.40pm York: Forest Gate 1lb

4.10pm Newmarket: Brioni 1lb

 

 FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

 

Gay Kelleway visor – 8-71 since 2009 ; Inconspicuous 2.05pm York

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.30pm York: Naxos, Box To Box?, Zealot (prominent)

1.47pm Newmarket: Kullazain, Midnight Thunder (prom), Mr Lightside, The Strikin Viking, Treasure Isle, Zayer, Blue Zodiac, Grande Marques, River Seine

2.05pm York: Amiloc?, Mr Fantastic, Stratusnine?, Imperial Trooper, Praetorian, Nahash, Inconspicuous?

2.25pm Newmarket: Flight, Magical Trail

2.40pm York: Forest Gate

3.00pm Newmarket: Noble Dynasty, Pogo, Quinault, Royal Scotsman?, Topgear, Ten Bob Tony?, Witness Stand?

3.15pm Chepstow: Bullets Hill, Handlethekettle, Vincenzo

3.35pm Newmarket: Anna Swan, Ballet Slippers, Tabiti

3.50pm Chepstow: The Two Amigos, Good Boy Bobby?, Enrilo?, Francky Du Berlais?, Wayfinder?

4.10pm Newmarket: Grey Cuban, Imperial Sovereign, Brioni (prom), Kamboo?, Spaceport, Due To Henry, Highland Bling, Kitteridge, Give It To Me Oj?

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; includes a “Trainer In Focus”, a new feature)

 

****TRAINER IN FOCUS*****

Charlie Hills (moderate but things are looking up)

He is winless in October and he hasn’t had a monthly strike rate above 6pc since June, but he has had a fair few seconds recently, and there are signs the tide may be about to turn finally. Four of his last five runners have finished second, including 22-1 and 14-1 chances on Wednesday at Kempton.

 

Excellent: Ed Bethell, Saaed bin Suroor, Peter and Michael Bowen. Nigel Twiston-Davies

Good: Jennie Candlish, Ralph Beckett, Karl Burke, Warren Greatrex (winner on Wednesday), James Owen, Stella Barclay (very good), David Menuisier. John Ryan, Hamad Al Jehani, Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby, Christoper Head, Tom Clover, Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Hughes, Fergal O’Brien. Lydia Richards (one from three this season), Rebecca Curtis, Ed Walker

Fair:  David O’Meara, George Boughey, Hugo Palmer, James Horton (no winners), Kevin Ryan, John and Sean Quinn, Gemma Tutty, Mick Appleby (needs more winners), Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood (no winners), Tim Easterby (18-1 winner on Thursday), Adrian Keatley, Archie Watson, Stan Moore (if no winners), Andrew Balding, William Haggas (fair for him), Eve Johnson Houghton, Hughie Morrison, James Tate (no winners), Simon and Ed Crisford (winner on Wednesday. and odds-on poke obliged on Thursday), Michael Bell (borderline moderate), Ollie Sangster, Roger Varian (worrying lack of winners, but 2-5 chance won at Southwell on Thursday), Stuart Williams (10-1 winner on Wednesday, and 9-2 success on Thursday), Paul and Oliver Cole, Richard Hannon (usual low strike rate, though), Marco Botti, Adrian Murray, James Ferguson, William Muir and Chris Grassick, Jessie Harrington, Peter Chapple-Hyam (very few runners, as usual, but a 7-1 winner on Wednesday), Gary and Josh Moore, Jamie Snowden, John McConnell, Dan Skelton, Evan Williams, John and Rhys Flint, Christian Williams, Alan King (6-1 winner on Wednesday)

Moderate: Geoffrey Harker (harsh maybe as very few runners), Dominic Ffrench Davis (5-2 winner on Thursday, though), Terry Kent (very few runners, though), Gay Kelleway (very few runners), J A Stack (very few runners), Conrad Allen (very few runners)

Starting back out/Don’t know: Roger Fell, Ella Pickard, Sam Thomas, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Martin, Joe Tizzard (9 from 57 this season though, and had a 13-2 winner on Thursday at Exeter), Georgie Howell