By Tony Calvin - 16 January 2025
Considering the prize money they have stumped up, Windsor and ARC will undoubtedly feel a little disappointed by the field sizes on Friday.
Publicly they will say they are happy with the quality on offer, which is a very valid point, but privately they will have expected far healthier numbers in the five first races (the two handicaps have filled).
Win-only races are nothing new in novices’ chases (and we have just four for a 75k pot here) but for the 100k 2m4f hurdle to get just five runners, after there were 18 entries at the five-day stage, is probably yet another illustration that we simply don’t have the horse population to adequately service the current races.
One of the barriers to innovation with the programme book.
Anyway, let’s crack on.
And, as I said in the trainerform section below, it has been Flu Jab season, so maybe bear that in mind when staking and punting.
This is the first of two veterans’ races on the Market Rasen card, this one being a 2m5f+ handicap chase.
I have three possible pace angles (see below), though I would expect The Edgar Wallace to win that particular battle and he was the one that most interested me at the early prices on Wednesday (one firm went 11s).
He has run pretty poorly in two starts this season but he has at least come down 6lb as a result and it is entirely possible he has been targeted at this 45k pot (as others will have been, clearly).
He is weighted to go very well on his form of last season then, and of course it is no negative that the 10yo is one from one around here.
This is his trip and a bit of dig for him is peachy.
Whether I want to be betting in a very tricky race on a horse that was beaten 37 lengths last time, finishing last of the four finishers, is another matter – and the general 9s is probably just fair, now the 11s has gone – but The Edgar Wallace is perhaps the best of the oldies if you want to get involved.
I don’t think I will myself.
A classy novices’ chase no doubt, with a Grade 1 winner and three Grade 2 scorers in opposition, but the numbers just continue to hold these races back as betting mediums.
I won’t keep you long here but Caldwell Potter is probably a fair price at evens (available in eight places, including with AKBets) after running better than a 13-length third to Jango Baie would suggest last time.
Yes, he is currently the poster boy for bad value purchases, having been bought for a ridiculous 740,000 euros as the Caldwell dispersal sale in February – well at least until those Amo horses come out on the Flat – but he jumped and travelled really well until the dial hit empty over 2m4f at Cheltenham last time and he could just be a bang two-miler, well suited to going from the front.
If connections were disappointed they didn’t win last time, then they will be crestfallen if he doesn’t oblige here, especially as the owners left the door open for him by not confirming L’Eau du Sud on Wednesday.
But, like I said, there is Graded-quality opposition and two of them could go forward as well.
And this track could be tricky, with plenty of trouble in running in the maximum-field races, for all the horses running over the two days of the Winter Million here. So bear that in mind when punting.
This wasn’t meant to be on the box (well, according to the Racing Post anyway) so prices were slow to come through on Wednesday.
It didn’t really matter though, as punting on the all-weather in a full-field 14-runner, 6f handicap at Newcastle is about as tempting an option as the last two offerings in a hot-wax back, sack and crack.
I am spreading the hard luck stories in this at 2-3
But I’ve done the pace map for you below and the 8s poke Never So Stop is 1lb well-in (the 7lb claimer Mason Paetel also had his first win of the season on Tuesday), so make your own minds up.
A rather more well-known jockey, Billy Loughnane (let’s drop “The Kid” reference now, shall we?) is going plenty well enough since he has returned from Australia at the start of the month.
His form figures read 134211322154 going into Thursday’s racing and he rides Coachello, a 9s chance (was as big as 10s), who won at Wolverhampton at the end of last month. He’ll probably be popular enough in the betting.
Yes, the 9s (in two places) looks fair enough for those tempted to bet, even if he could be one of the aforementioned hard luck stories from trap nine, given his run-style.
You just have to try to dismiss those overly-generous, fleeting early prices from your mind when assessing races.
It isn’t easy, I know.
Panic Attack, who won the Market Rasen bumper for Willie Mullins on this day in 2020, has shaped well on her two hurdle starts since joining Dan Skelton and the early 5s and [9/2] quotes were never going to last now she resumes her chasing career.
She is now more sensibly priced at [11/4] (10/3 in a place, so definitely take that if you can) and a mark of 125 looks something of a gift (well it gives her plenty of wriggle, as opposed to wiggle, room) on her 2022/23 chase form for David Pipe, including a fourth to Stage Star in a strong Cheltenham handicap off 130 in January 2023.
If you can access the [10/3), or indeed the general [11/4], that probably remains fair business.
Very fair, but I can’t tip at one stand-out price.
I’d say Skelton has pinpointed this 45k mares-only handicap chase some way out (though he didn’t mention this mare in his October Racing Post stable tour), looking to take advantage for the chase handicap mark drop after her very long absence from February 2023 to December 2024.
Those two hurdle starts came over 2m and the step back up in trip is another obvious plus for a horse who stays 3m and whose best form has come at this distance.
It is a competitive little race but this looks the liveliest one by far.
Not much a gap between this and the 2.25pm at Windsor, so no delays please.
I make no apologies for flagging it yet again – not least because I sometimes forget myself when striking each-way bets well in advance of races (well, occasionally as I only have one betting account now, albeit one with a £100 take-out on fixed-odds bets, whoop whoop) – but we have the dead-eight in this, so each-way punters should tread warily.
With no significant ground changes expected, 38k+ to the winner and prize money down to eighth, they should be okay, but you never know.
When this race was due to be staged at Sandown a fortnight ago, Fortescue was the big mover from 9s to 4s (he was actually available at 10s in a place), so I am a touch surprised to see one firm make him a stand-out 8s on Wednesday, with 6s the best on offer anywhere else.
Actually, I wasn’t that shocked, as it was the usual mob.
The 8s has disappeared, as has the 7s, and he is now best at 6s.
To be fair, that early “gamble” would have taken peanuts.
One of the reasons Fortescue was backed two weeks ago was his winning Sandown form (and he has never raced here – indeed none of the eight have), but other than that his form claims remain the same.
He ran okay behind Copperhead at Aintree in October (he actually hit 1.62 in running) before running poorly in the Berkshire National over an extended 3m5f at Ascot last time, after which he was given a break after that grueller.
He has also come down 5lb for those runs and he is no stranger for hitting form after below-par efforts.
Indeed, when he won at Sandown in 2021 connections cited the stable form as one factor in the improvement.
And they could be doing that here maybe, as Henry Daly was 17 from 70 in November and December, and Strackan got him off to a winning start for 2025 on New Year’s Day (only four runners since, and one of those won at Hereford on Wednesday).
You would have thought this 75k pot (originally due to be run for 100k at Sandown) would have been the target for his 11yo, who is now a colossal 15lb lower then when fourth in the 2022 Becher.
Yes, I know that was a while ago, but it is not as if he has run like a drain since.
Indeed, he has finished runner-up four times in the past year or so – and that Aintree run in October is better than it looked, too, as the in-running betting suggested – and this is his lowest mark since January 2021.
I fancied him at Sandown, and he’d be my lean in the race still, even if the fancier prices have gone. The 6s is perfectly fair, and I have managed to get a little matched at that price.
Langer Dan is [13/2] in a place (yes there) and, if we drop the spring horse bull, that looks a huge price.
The general 5s (available in nine places, including with AKBets), and [11/2] in a spot, is far too big as well.
The horse simply has 13lb and more in hand of his four rivals and, for all he seemingly ran poorly at Cheltenham last time, I refuse to believe he won’t be off for his life here for such a winnable pot.
Naive, maybe.
The handicapper won’t drop him, come what may, and the Stayers’ Hurdle must be on his agenda in March, so why not pick this prize up en route?
A reproduction of his Coral Cup win, or his placed efforts at Aintree and Sandown afterwards, will see him win this.
End of story, for all his four rivals clearly all have their chances (you can see Iberico Lord relishing the trip if chasing hasn’t soured him) if Langer Dan puts in another modest show.
Aside the Cheltenham handicap romp off 141 (off 141…), none of his four rivals would have got anywhere close to being involved in a three-way bunch finish with Impaire Et Passe and Bob Olinger in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle in April, well clear of very smart mares in fourth and fifth.
And, as for the spring horse label, if you train them to “peak” then, then that is what they will do, if you are a class operator like Skelton.
But this race is 52k to the winner against clearly inferior animals – he is also getting 4lb off three of them – and he only copped 56k for winning the 21-runner Coral Cup.
I refuse to believe (naivety alert again) someone as pot-savvy as the title-hunting Skelton won’t have him ready for this.
Let’s hope basic finances and common sense prevail, and he isn’t trading in double-figures near the off (or that is he hasn’t had his flu jab relatively recently…), which entirely possible, I guess.
If he is, I’ll probably still be digging a betting hole as the tapes goes up and hope to trade my way out of it in running.
They better hope the 3pm at Windsor is not delayed either, as we could have clash city.
They would have probably been better off running this five minutes later.
Anyway, bumpers are not my cup of tea at the best of times, as they are normally full of unknowns, and we have a host of lightly-raced horses here, seven of the 10 having won last time (with a newcomer priced up at 10s), so it is as difficult as ever.
From my perspective, anyway.
This is normally a decent bumper but there seems no stand-out going into the race – Uttoxeter winner Dream Shadow, from the stable that won this with Dysart Enos last season, heads the betting at [7/2] – but Chatty Girl is priced up at 33s in a spot (yes, that spot again) and that is surely too big, so take it if you can.
I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay 25s either, or the 20s.
The only filly and 4yo in the field, she gets 13lb from the rest and she certainly looked decent enough from when winning at Newbury on her debut.
She was probably given a very cute ride by Kielan Woods to win there, coming wide and racing on the near rail, but no way should she be the price she is, even if this is hardly a race you can be bullish about.
The opening 10s in a place about Wreckless Eric was never going to last (I am surprised it survived 35 minutes), and nor was the 12s about Hansard, but, again, you have put that to one side when assessing this hugely competitive, full-field handicap (Brendas Asking was balloted out, so get your money back there).
The 9s about Hansard has also disappeared too, and we are now looking at 8s in five places.
Little wonder I cynically used to rush out my previous columns at the 48-hour stage to nick the ricks….
Once again, I imagine the 110k pot here has concentrated a few minds, and Hansard looked to be given a ride with a view to the future when fourth at Kempton on his return, his first run since December 2023.
I am not in the least bit surprised the handicapper didn’t drop him even a pound despite being a 4 ½ length fourth there and the 7yo has more improvement in him after just eight hurdle starts.
Presumably he had an issue to be off for so long prior to Kempton, explaining the kid gloves ride by Niall Houlihan.
Look, it’s a very deep race and I respect Wreckless Eric and plenty of others in here, like Navajo Indy – and I’d like to see the Moores in better form, though they had a welcome winner at Kempton on Wednesday – but 8s each way, four places, looks okay for Hansard.
Not as good as that 12s, mind you, but I have had a bit of the 8s, so by all means follow suit.
I seemed to remember the Noel Fehily Racing syndicate doing an interview in the Weekender and I finally found it in the October 23rd edition.
Plans have obviously changed a fair bit since then (they were talking about the Elite as a starting point), but they clearly thought their 2023 Gerry Feilden winner was up to contesting the best 2m handicap hurdles and he gets the chance to show it here.
In a very open race, he’d still be idea of the best bet in the race.
Hopefully, the above should have given you half a steer about all the eight races on ITV, in a written style perhaps more in keeping with a podcast.
It is up to you when and where to bet, and how much – and you probably won’t be able to access some of the best prices, which always has to be a consideration (see above) – but I have pinpointed my idea of the best punts.
I have backed Hansard at 8s each way, as I have said, and I have also had a few other nibbles, as I have indicated above.
As for Langer Dan, yes, I probably am stupid, but it is spring-like weather out there…..
Langer Dan at the general [5/1] in 3pm at Windsor (obviously take that 13/2 in a place if you can, and any bigger out there)
(Hansard at 8s each way, four places, in 3.35pm at Windsor is the next best if you want one – he is also 7s each way, five places if you want a further place safety net at a reduced price).
Going – Soft, good to soft in places
Going stick reading – 5.6 (Friday 6am)
Weather: – Dry and 7 degrees
Course update: “Forecast- 7c this morning and remaining warm throughout today with sunny spells.”
Rails: Both the Winning post bend and the Marina bend are 4 yards off the inside line to provide fresh ground.
Going – Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading – Chase: 6.0; Hurdle 5.8 (6.45am Friday)
Weather: – Dry and 7 degrees
Latest course update: “Raceday will remain overcast all day with highs of 7C. Staying dry throughout.”
Going – Standard
Weather: – Dry and 8 degrees
Stalls: 1m2f and 1m4f – Outside 2m – Inside Straight course – Centre
Course update and stalls: “Dry overnight. Highs of 9’C and clear day ahead. 8mph SSW breeze. Possible gusts of 20 mph.”
2.10pm Newcastle: Rohaan, Brooklyn Nine Nine, Airman, Beattie Is Back, Admiral D
3.35pm Windsor: Brendas Asking
2.10pm Newcastle: We Never Stop (+1)
2.35pm Market Rasen: Smarty Wild (2lb)
3.35pm Windsor: Tour Ovalie (6lb)
Alan King cheekpieces 10-90 (since 2016)
Emma Lavelle visor 7-41 (2009)
David Dennis visor 2-18 (2013)
Lizzie Quinlan cheekpieces 0-1 (2024)
Robbie Llewellyn hood 0-7 (2022)
Robbie Llewellyn cheekpieces 0-7 (2022, four seconds and an in-contention faller at the last) – horse in question has first run in headgear for him
Brian Ellison cheekpieces 10-131 (2016)
Ryan Potter cheekpieces 0-8 (2021)
Ben Case blinkers 2-24 (2009)
Ben Brookhouse cheekpieces 1-5 (2023)
Mel Rowley cheekpieces 1-9 (2022)
David Pipe blinkers 22-164 (2009)
Ben Pauling visor 1-8 (2014)
Nicky Martin cheekpieces 1-9 (2019)
1.25pm Market Rasen: The Edgar Wallace, Nocte Volatus?, Onemorefortheroad
1.50pm Windsor: Caldwell Potter, Personal Ambition, You Wear It Well
2.10pm Newcastle: Noble Truth (drawn 13), Gweedore (3), We Never Stop (14), King’s Lynn (1) – prominent, Run Baby Run (11) – prom
2.25pm Windsor: Sacre Coeur, Game On For Glory (prom), Panic Attack (prom), Party Vibes
2.35pm Market Rasen: Eldorado Allen, Empire Steel?
3.00pm Windsor: Blueking d’Oroux, Nemean Lion (prom), Salver?
3.10pm Market Rasen (limited evidence): Kingston Queen, Chatty Girl
3.35pm Windsor: Knickerbockerglory, Court In The Act, Navjajo Indy?, Secret Squirrel?
*************************************************
I noted in this section four weeks ago that Harry Derham had been exceptionally quiet, and soon afterwards we found out why – Storm Bert had washed away his gallop.
He effectively had to shut up shop, and install a new one, which he did thanks to a loan from his parents.
He appears set to get back on track now though, and he should be paying the bank of Mum and Dad, Geoff and Julie, back soon enough.
If that sounds familiar, it is because I have posted that three times now. This time the meeting will be on.
He ended December with a monthly record of five from 15, and he was one from 10 in the New Year going into Wednesday’s racing.
On the face of it, that is fairly moderate for Harry, but seven of the nine beaten horses have finished in the first four, and I reckon we will soon see a Derham spurt.
He nearly had another winner on Wednesday but Norn Iron could only finish a close second at Newbury after trading at 1.26 in running.
He runs three in Windsor’s 2m handicap hurdle at 3.35pm, and he is set to have a busy weekend, too.
Excellent: Hobbs and White (flying at the moment, with five of their last nine runners winning), Jamie Snowden (four of his last six have won but a couple of recent reverses); Neil Mulholland doesn’t have a runner in an ITV race but he is another in cracking recent form
Good: David O’Meara, Karl Burke, Kevin Ryan, Olly Murphy, Heather Main, Henry Daly, Ben Pauling, Gavin Cromwell, Kerry Lee (one runner, one 33 length winner), Nicky Henderson, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (14-1 winner on Thursday), Tom Symonds
Fair: Katie Scott, Mark Loughnane, Linda Perratt, Andrew Balding, James Fanshawe (only five recent runners, but going well enough), Richard Spencer (few runners), Richard Fahey, Brian Ellison, Sandy Thomson (well backed 4-1 winner on Thursday), Nigel Twiston-Davies (winner on Wednesday), Fergal O’Brien, Dan Skelton (treble on Thursday), Bailey and Nicholls, Paul Nicholls, Lucy Wadham, Harry Derham, Ewan Whillans, Evan Williams, Joe Tizzard, Gary and Josh Moore (getting better), Mick Appleby (two very welcome winners on Wednesday), Anthony Honeyball (couple of recent winners), David Pipe (couple of recent winners)
Moderate: Archie Watson, David Evans, Tom Lacey, Gary Hanmer (maybe a harsh assessment with a couple of seconds and very few runners), Venetia Williams (11-10 winner on Wednesday though)
Don’t know : Jack Channon (one winner in Bahrain from two recent runners), Ryan Potter, David Brace, Neil King , Alan King (one winner from two runners), Noel Williams (no recent runners), Richard Phillips (one runner, close third at 100-1), Alex Hales (very few runners to judge), Harry Fry (very few runners), Chris Honour, Hughie Morrison
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