TONY CALVIN: This 33/1 poke is definitely worth a…..poke

UPDATE as of 8.30am Sunday – well done for giving watering details

Cheltenham undertook selective watering on Saturday evening (3-5mm; fair play to Jon Pullin for giving details) and they also had 3mm of rain last night.

So maybe those horses that want a bit of dig at Cheltenham have been given half a chance.

That said, the updated going stick reading of 6.6 remains unchanged from Saturday and it is still good, good to soft in places.

It is set to be dry, but some sites are predicting some light showers coming in at around 3pm.

The 11-2 has arrived about Does He Know (see below)

My beauty sleep has delivered. The 11-2 arrived with the Tooth Fairy.

Unfortunately it is only available in one place as this update goes live, so I can’t tip it as such. I can’t really select in isolation (unless it is with AKBets, of course….).

But if you can access it, it’s a very fair bet.

Be warned that because Escaria Ten is a non-runner, some firms have cut their each way places here from four to three (and they include the firm offering the 11-2).

Let Oddschecker be your guide.

On that subject, the fact that I have a free rein to tip as I want is invaluable. It was one of the pre-requisites of my doing this column.

Some people have to tip with only certain bookmakers, and that leads to advice that is occasionally well under the best market price (often the tune of 4 to six points), and some not being secure enough to give a true picture of the overall marketplace, and that is highly questionable.

Still,  let’s not worry about others. I have more than enough to concern me as it is….

The dead eight has become a sad seven in the 1.45pm

Walking On Air has been taken out of this race with a temperature, as of 9.29am.

That means this race is now paying just two places for each way purposes.

Bad luck if you have already played.

Good luck today.

3.30pm Cheltenham – No harm in going in mob-handed if the prices are right

There were showers possibly due after racing on Saturday, and perhaps more on Sunday afternoon from 3pm onwards.

Not a lot of rain is forecast though (perhaps 3mm in total).

Cheltenham reported “selective watering Saturday night to maintain.”

Again, no amounts were given.

I’m ditching the chronological order this week and starting with the 16-runner Greatwood Hurdle.

And pretty much ending with it from a betting point of view.

As regards the two at the top of the market, my thoughts about Dysart Enos and Burdett Road haven’t changed.

Well, they have.

Famous last words…but 9/4 Dysart Enos looks a terrible price

I thought Dysart Enos was a terrible price at [7/2] on Monday, and she is an even worse betting proposition now at a general [9/4].

Sure, she was a very good bumper horse, she has course form and she is unbeaten over hurdles and she has that sexy Susanna Reid profile surrounding her, with the sectionalistas also giving her a good mention too, but a mark of 131 is undoubtedly harsh on what she has achieved over the sticks (long time since I wrote that phrase) and we haven’t seen her in a long while.

And she will surely have to get down and dirty to win this.

Of course, she can win – and it’ll be a great training performance if she does – but I just can’t see why she is so short in the betting, for all that Aintree bumper defeat of Golden Ace in April 2023 makes for impressive reading.

If she cops, or even places (I’ll get stuck into her on all the place markets), I’ll have lost on the race, that much is certain.

I don’t think her biggest fans truly believe she is attractively priced at [9/4], but good horses win at bad prices all the time.

9/2 Burdett Road would be my idea of the right favourite

I can fully see the case for main market rival Burdett Road though, and the general [9/2] remains a fair price.

Some rotters took the 5s, available in five places, on Friday. I’ll admit to snaffling a little bit of that. Not a lot, mind you.

I actually backed Burdett Road in a few different markets on the Flat at Ascot last time and, while I didn’t get paid on any, I thought he ran well in the circumstances in that Group 2 behind Kyprios, as he was tardy coming out of the stalls and couldn’t get to the front.

Looking at the pace map below, I think the lead is Harry Cobden’s if he can get the horse motivated at the tapes.

Of course, it may not want it. But I’d expect him to, even if Royal Way and Napper Tandy look sure to press on.

Rated 109 on the Flat (following an all-the-way, runaway, 8 ½-length success at Newmarket in September from a subsequent Listed race winner who is now on a mark of 109 himself), Burdett Road has the raw ability to stroll home here off 133 and of course he has won around here over hurdles.

I’ll accept he has been too tricky and keen for his own good on occasion (they ditched the hood three starts ago) but he should be the favourite in this, and I will ensure I don’t lose in the race if he wins.

His trainer James Owen is an operator quickly going up the trainer ladder, as he showed again with the smashed-up East India Dock on Saturday (also had a 50-1 second here on Friday). And he was at it again on the Flat at Wolverhampton on Saturday night with a 13-8 winner.

Don’t laugh, but this 33/1 poke is my main bet in the race

As for my main bet, many will believe that he barks as much as he neighs, as a horse who has not won since the lofty heights of Sedgefield in June 2022.

Step forward, Anyharminasking.

Now, 2m on good (ish) ground may be too sharp for him, even around here – and he is still in the 100k 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock next Saturday, which could foretell the story on Sunday– but I took a very positive view of his comeback run here over 2m4f.

He travelled so well when a good third in that race in first-time cheekpieces, hitting 2.6 in running – and I know he has flattered to deceive before – that he is surely well weighted off 135.

I appreciate we have said that a few times before.

The on-the-show betting last time tells you he was backed from 18s to 16s but he was a colossal drifter beforehand (he was trading in single figures when the betting opened), so that run was well above market expectations.

Perhaps the cheekpieces may have finally unlocked the potential (and I refuse to mention that he beat Constitution Hill in a point….).

I accept he could get taken off his feet here and he is more exposed than a few, but I had a look at his Welsh Champion Hurdle second last October, when he gave Nemean Lion a real fright over 2m there.

And that was a Nemean Lion winning off a mark of just 135, and Kerry Lee’s horse was rated 151, and some 16lb higher, four starts later.

At 33/1 each way, five places – that is available in nine spots on the Oddschecker grid, with the mob offering six places just 22s – he is a bet.

Teddy Blue will drift from 14/1

Harry Derham has a very good record with new recruits to his yard (particularly handicappers,  in a much lower grade admittedly)  – Imagine let the side down on Saturday, though – and they are rarely missed in the market.

He will take on magician status if he can get the frustrating Teddy Blue over the line here, and to jump a lot better, but Derham certainly has the raw talent to work with and a well-treated horse on the pick of his form.

And someone is happy to row in with him, as all the 20s and 18s has gone, and he is a general 14s and 12s now (the last of the 16s went on Saturday afternoon).

However, looking at the current exchange price, he looks sure to drift back out again. Wait if you want to get with him fixed-odds-wise.

If you want to know Derham’s record with stable-switchers, before Imagine yesterday, click on this link (or cut and paste and put in a fresh browser) and go to the Trainer In Focus section near the end; https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-two-that-really-ought-to-be-going-very-close-on-saturday/

How about 33/1 Florida Dreams?

Teddy Blue could well appear in the winner’s enclosure – and so could Florida Dreams at a similar price, maybe.

Florida Dreams’ bumper form is actually not that far off that of Dysart Enos – he won a Grade 2 at Aintree on decent ground in April 2023 – and, to that extent, you could say his hurdling exploits to date have been a touch disappointing.

The form of his Hexham handicap win off 125 last month has hardly been advertised since – those that have come out subsequently have been stuffed – but I wouldn’t necessarily use that as a stick to beat him with.

Trainer Nicky Richards has his string in good form, and he has a good record with first-time cheekpieces, which the horse wears here (see below)

I’ve backed him at 25s (though currently 33s in a place).

No shame in backing four horses in one race

Whisper it quietly, I will personally back the above four horses – actually make that five if you include the place lay of Dysart Enos – but it you want me to narrow it down to one, it is Anyharminasking each way at 33s.

I am not usually a fan of the stable, but the O’Neills have already had 36 winners this season, and 11 of those have come in November at a strike rate of 24 per cent.

And if you think backing four horses in one race is irresponsible, then view it this way.

Taking the win prices as your guide, collectively the quartet come to just under [11/4] combined.

Which is a bigger price than Dysart Enos is on her lonesome.

And I think backing her at [9/4] is reckless….though laying her or a place may be even more so…..

Rest of the ITV races

As regular readers will know, I am anything but shy on the word count when writing these columns.

I am plenty else besides, admittedly…

However, I am not scribbling away for the sake of it, when only one other race interested me from a betting point of view.

2.55pm Cheltenham – 9/2 Does He Know looks a very solid proposition, but I want bigger

Does He Know is now a general [9/2] poke here, the 5s in three places having disappeared on Saturday morning.

He won this race off a 2lb higher mark in 2022, and he is just 1lb higher than when winning the (Teddy) Grimthorpe in first-time cheekpieces at Doncaster in March (only two finishers that day, mind you), so he is certainly handicapped to repeat the feat.

He definitely ran better than the bare form indicates when fourth here on his return last month, a race in which the attentions of Broadway Boy on the front end were unwanted, so a 2lb drop for that seasonal reappearance tees him nicely for this.

I have two sight concerns.

The first is the price, as [9/2] is a tad below the level I would be willing to back him at, for all each way punters can get four places, and you’d struggle to see him finishing fifth or worse.

Personally, I’d be looking for at least a point bigger for win-only purposes.

And the second is related, to an extent. And that is he could have pressure for the lead again here (see below), which isn’t ideal over 3m3f.

I am going to sleep on his chances on Saturday evening and come back with an update on Sunday morning.

And hopefully my beauty sleep will see my [11/2] materialize….

Good luck, all.

BET

Anyharminasking at [33/1] each way, five places, in 3.30pm at Cheltenham. Available in nine places.

GOING/WEATHER – updated 8.15am Sunday

CHELTENHAM

GOING:  Good, good to soft in places (had 3mm of rain on Saturday evening but ground description hasn’t changed)

GOING STICK:  6.6 (not changed from Saturday)

WEATHER: Light showers due in afternoon, probably after racing

WATERING: “Selective watering Saturday evening (3-5mm)”

FONTWELL

GOING:  Good

GOING STICK:  6.6 (as of 6.30am Sunday)

WEATHER: Looks to be dry during racing

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Nicky Richards cheekpieces 8-38 since 2016 – Florida Dreams, 3.30pm Cheltenham

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (out of the handicap; carrying more weight than they should)

2.55pm Cheltenham: Rose Of Arcadia (2lb), Hymac (3lb)

PACE MAPS (ITV races)

1.45pm Cheltenham: Leader In The Park, Guard Your Dreams (prom), Primoz (prom),

2.05pm Fontwell: Unanswered Prayers, Feivel, Glimpse Of Gala, Saint Xavier (prom), Whydah Gally

2.20pm Cheltenham: Matata, Calico?, Gunsight Ridge (prom)

2.55pm Cheltenham: Does He Know, Monbeg Genius?, Undersupervision (prom), Abuffalosoldier, Bangers And Cash, Hymac?

3.30pm Cheltenham: Burdett Road?, Napper Tandy, Royal Way

TRAINERFORM (manually done; ITV races only; no particularly interesting Trainer In Focus angle for Sunday)

Good: Jonjo and A J O’Neill (double on Friday), Olly Murphy (double on Thursday), Ben Pauling, Dan Skelton (double on Saturday), Hobbs and White, Kim Bailey, Joe Tizzard,  James Owen (very good), Harry Fry, Nicky Richards, Nicky Henderson (really coming good now), Lucinda Russell (very good – three recent winners),

Fair: Martin Keighley, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Harry Derham, Gary and Josh Moore, Fergal O’Brien, Chris Gordon, Deborah Cole, Peter and Michael Bowen, Warren Greatrex, Gavin Cromwell

Moderate: Toby Lawes (though a 7-2 chance beaten a nose), Seamus Mullins (getting a bit better), Charlie Longsdon (probably more fair, and a good second on Saturday, but he needs a winner), Ewan Whillans, Stuart Edmunds (winner on Saturday)

Don’t know: Gary Brown (only four runners but two have run okay), Kerry Lee (only four runners, two have gone okay), Emmet Mullins (Lee (only four runners, two have gone okay), Matthew J Smith (only three runners), Richard Hobson (few runners), Nick Gifford (just three recent runners)