By Tony Calvin - 1 June 2025
It’s a good job that Aidan O’Brien is seemingly set to throw a trio of horses at the Oaks – he is currently responsible for the next three in the betting behind the favourite Desert Flower – as that at least gives the punters the prospect of 1,2,3 each-way punting on Friday.
Not that small fields in the Oaks are anything new – there were nine runners in 2023, 2018, 2017 and 2016, and eight in 2020 – but we have only nine entries in the Classic at the five-day stage.
Whether all eight stand their ground in the Coronation Cup earlier on Friday’s card is another matter, but we can park that Group 1 race to one side for the moment. Calandagan is pretty much [4/6] across the board for that.
The first thing that strikes you when you look at the Oaks is the fact that none of the horses have won over the 1m4f trip.
That may be stretching that editorial line a touch as Giselle won a three-runner Listed race at odds of [3/10] over 1m3f133yd at Lingfield – and Minnie Hauk at a touch shorter still at Chester – but that was clearly not a searching test at the trip.
And Epsom is a test.
The stamina question is certainly something that the unbeaten [7/4] favourite Desert Flower has to answer, especially with rain on the way (though the forecast has improved as of Tuesday morning – and they are watering).
And it would appear to me to be a pretty big one.
Epsom had 3.4mm of rain on Tuesday to go with 5mm of watering in places.
A 5 ½-length winner of the Fillies Mile at two, she reappeared to win the 1,000 Guineas by a length, and that is the best form on offer here.
We are clearly dealing with a potential top-notcher, and Kieren Fallon (who rides work for Godolphin) was lavish in his praise of the filly on Luck On Sunday.
But, personally, I don’t think that form is strong in Classic terms – I appreciate the sixth Lake Victoria bolted up in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but she was clearly using Newmarket as a stepping-stone, and the second and third were well beaten at the Curragh – and Desert Flower’s pedigree doesn’t scream 1m4f.
She is by miler Night Of Thunder out of a mare who showed her best form up to 1m1f, and I’d personally be happy to lay her at her current odds.
Indeed, I am, and I have currently averaged getting against her at [2.83].
Considering the last price matched on her is [2.7], that is hardly great trading…..
She was [2.72] at 10.30am on Tuesday morning.
The aforementioned Giselle, and Whirl, are – or I should say were now – next in the betting at [6/1] and [7/1] respectively and clearly whatever Ryan Moore rides will dictate which of that pair challenges Desert Flower for favouritism.
Indeed, it wouldn’t be a massive shock if Moore plumped for Minnie Hauk, as he was apparently very taken by that filly’s win in the Cheshire Oaks (again, a near-stamina angle as that race was over 1m3f75yd).
You’d go skint second-guessing the Lads, but Minnie Hauk was cut from 8s to 7s on Monday morning, and then the 7s and [13/2] was taken soon after.
She is now [11/2] second favourite as of 10.30am on Tuesday.
Perhaps Moore rides her, after all – that was the gossip doing the rounds on Monday – but I doubt whether a final decision has been made by anyone just yet.
Tuesday is probably their last work day before the Oaks.
I personally would have little hesitation in naming Whirl as the best of the Ballydoyle three at the moment – I am assuming all three will go, but that is not a given – albeit on the scant available evidence, and the prospect of her going the shorter French Oaks.
I imagine the reason the market was initially lukewarm to a 5 1/2-length Musidora winner had a lot to do with part-owner Michael Tabor’s immediate post-race comments – “I don’t think that Whirl is an Oaks filly, I think she’d probably get a mile and a half but a mile and a quarter in something like the Prix Diane would be more suitable, I think. But I haven’t discussed it with Derrick or John or Aidan. That’s just my thinking” – but what is not to like about her after that dominant York win?
Form-wise, she is second only to the favourite, and the time figure at York was very good.
And the manner of that success, with Go Go Boots, also in here, beaten 5 ¾ lengths in third, suggested she should relish the 1m4f trip, for all the noises from jockey and part-owner (the former perhaps carries the most weight, even if self-interest means he would rather to win two fillies’ Classics rather than one….) may suggest otherwise.
Whirl isn’t copper-bottomed on stamina, but surely the run-style gives you every encouragement on what we saw on the Knavesmire. Moore rode her as if stamina was her forte there.
Take out the post-race chat and concentrate on the facts, and you’d say she is an Oaks filly all day long.
I have backed her each-way at 6s, but she is now out to [7/1] in three places.
So, she is one of the two I have backed in the race, in addition to the lay of the jolly.
Nothing too substantial, but a fair enough position, mainly centring around the lay angle (i.e. I won’t lose if the favourite doesn’t win – but it will be painful enough if she does, mind you).
The supplemented (for 30k) Guineas fourth Elwateen is available at 10s.
I suspect the latter could be a Group 1 filly, as she is bred to be on both sides of the family, but, again, stamina is a potential issue here (though at least at 10s you are getting compensated or the doubt).
She clearly ran well in the Guineas and 1m2f should be no worries on pedigree, being by Dubawi out of 1m2f French Oaks winner Tawkeel. But 1m4f, I am not so sure.
If Elwateen stays, she is a big player, and I have nibbled her small win-only at an average of just over [13.0] on the exchange. She trades at [12.0] there on Tuesday morning.
It would be quite something if Saeed bin Suroor won a Classic, having had just 10 runners (and one winner) in 2025 to date in the UK.
There is out of favour – and then there is that.
Now, you shouldn’t be too strident when assessing lightly-raced fillies – and especially ones trained by the red-hot Ed Walker and the top-class Ralph Beckett – but I can’t get overexcited the strength of the Listed Newbury one-two of Qilin Queen and Revoir.
Walker’s Qilin Queen beat Beckett’s Revoir (having just her second start) by a short-head and that is not a strong formline in Classic terms – or even in Group 2-3 terms – but what they have going for them is that their bloodlines suggest 1m4f really should eke out improvement.
I can especially see why Revoir is 9s (the last of 10s was taken on Tuesday morning) compared to 25s Qilin Queen, but maybe that differential is far too big.
The only other horse I haven’t mentioned is general 20s chance Wemightakedlongway, who, hands up, I had never heard of before coming to do this piece.
That can be easily explained by my ignorance of Irish racing but she impressed when making all over 1m2f at Navan last time from a once-raced winner of Paddy Twomey’s – at least it looked that way when I watched the video of it for the first time on Sunday morning – and her sire Australia is a strong stamina influence, though the distaff side is more 1m speed.
She has a good deal of experience, having taken on the colts in the Ballysax on her return, so it is well worth them rolling the dice. And she beat Minnie Hauk convincingly over a mile at Cork last season.
If the favourite doesn’t get home, this Classic is up for grabs.
Keep an eye on the weather, as Epsom is set to get wet from Tuesday (see below).
Monday was a dry warm day, so Tuesday may start with a touch of good to firm in the going description somewhere.
It is now good, good to firm in places, on Tuesday morning – and Epsom have made the ballsy call to water today (details below), in addition to the Sunday irrigation on 2f of the 5f sprint track.
Going: Good
Going stick: 6.9, Wednesday 7am
Wednesday morning update: Dry since May 27 until 3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday bar very isolated showers. Unsettled from Thursday, but with continued uncertainty as to volumes of rain, which will be showery in nature. Met Office suggesting 2-5mm Thursday morning, dry overnight then showers from late morning Friday into the afternoon. Temperatures generally mid to high teens.
Watering: 5mm irrigation applied to Home Straight and selected areas of Back Straight during Tuesday. No further irrigation.
Forecast: 10mm Thursday, 1mm Friday, 8mm Saturday (not that the latter is relevant obviously).
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