By Tony Calvin - 11 November 2024
I wasn’t going to do a piece on Friday’s four ante-post races at Cheltenham – all of which are on ITV obviously – but unexpected Monday morning unavailability in the podcast camp (we recorded at 9pm, so look out for that appearing on Tuesday) left me at a loose end, so I decided to knock a brief one out.
Insert your own double entendre here.
The main reason why I wasn’t even going to look is because you don’t know which of the Friday entries are also going to be given weekend options later on Monday, so my advice to ante-post punters is clear.
Tread very carefully.
In fact, I would recommend you wait for the weekend entries to come out on Monday afternoon – they are normally on the Racing Post site around 1.30pm – before betting.
But below where we stand at the moment.
If I had a National Hunt horse that excelled on fast ground, I think I’d sell it.
If anyone was interested in buying it…..
If we are getting to the stage where good ground raises “welfare” and “safety” concerns – ridiculous, I know, and the people using that loose language, media and horsemen/women alike, should know better (it will come back to bite the sports on its collective arse)– then what is the point of owning one outside of summer jumping?
When Mother Nature buckets it down, the soft ground horses benefit.
And when it doesn’t, the tracks water, rightly or wrongly.
The courses and clerks have a very fine balancing act to complete, a job which no-one would envy. I completely get that, especially with entries in some races as rare as hen’s (or is it hens’) teeth.
On those lines, Cheltenham state that “watering will continue to maintain and improve.”
It is currently good ground there, but they haven’t told us how much water they have, or will, put down.
My guess would be plenty, hence no details have been given. And they haven’t updated the ground or stick readings since Sunday, as of 10pm on Monday.
On the Nick Luck podcast on Monday, Cheltenham clerk Jon Pullin reportedly said (and I’ve just nicked this straight off Dave Ord’s piece on the Sporting Life website, by the way) the following: “We’re certainly good ground at the moment and on the easier side.
“We took the decision given this prolonged dry period, and there’s no rain forecast in this build-up, to commence watering last week. We’ve done two complete rounds and that’s put us in a really good position going into this week then we can just monitor where we are, the conditions, and will probably end up doing a bit more watering this week but we’re certainly in a good place at the moment.
“The benefit of September’s rain is the moisture is there lower down the soil profile so all we’re doing at the moment is stopping the top drying out too much.
“The watering that we’re doing is leaving very consistent ground because that moisture is there through the whole profile and we’re not just watering the top and creating ground that is different in different areas of the track. It does walk very consistent and we’re happy with where we are at this stage.”
Given that talk and the fact that it is a three-day meeting, you’d have thought the Friday ground could well be nearer good to soft than good.
Springwell Bay ranges from the [11/4] to [7/2] mark in here, despite carrying a 5lb penalty for his Chepstow success.
Nicky Henderson has three in here, two of which are the second and third favourites (Shanagh Bob and Hyland), so it is very tricky if you fancy any of his trio.
Early indications are that it will still be too soft for Shanagh Bob, despite the watering, but plans change.
The 16s chance Coco Mademoiselle is the interesting one.
She was well-backed to win off a lenient mark of 122 at Exeter last Friday, before being withdrawn on account of the good ground (she may well get good to soft ground here, which will be a nice combination for her in conjunction with the 3m+ trip) and they didn’t take up an entry at Bangor on Wednesday.
They clearly feel a mark of 122 seriously underplays her talent, but will she run on the ground? Indeed, will they not take advantage of that handicap mark somewhere instead of taking on much higher-rated horses in this Listed race?
It could cut up to provide easy black type, I suppose (three horses in here were given weekend entries on Monday afternoon – see below).
The 16s each way, three places, could prove decent trading business.
But, against that, of course she does have a lot to find on the book.
If the form horses show, that is….
The Grade 2 Shloer Chase (tricky to spell, and even harder to pronounce without sounding pissed) has been moved to Friday to be the highlight of the card.
It’ll be [4/9] Jonbon versus [7/2] Edwardstone, with perhaps one or two others looking for cheap prize money (in fact there is cash down to sixth), with some of these waiting for an Ascot early-closer a week on Saturday (see below).
Maybe they will all have hunt round here beforehand though, with 10k+ and 5k+ for third and fourth respectively. I wouldn’t expect more than four runners here.
IMPORTANT UPDATE 2.45pm Monday: Calico, Libberty Hunter and Matata have all just been given other weekend entries.
Unsurprisingly, with eight entries, the each-way betting is just two places here.
Each way [7/2] Edwardstone everybody?
Now, that could be pure filth.
We have 24 entries for the Cross Country handicap, 13 of which are Irish. Gordon Elliott has four of them, and Gavin Cromwell three.
All bar 10 are currently out of the handicap, so plenty will be hoping that Conflated comes out and the weights go up 7lb.
There endeth my interest, though Delta Work and Coko Beach were taken out of the Troytown on Tuesday.
IMPORTANT UPDATE: see double entries below. Seven more horses have just been given alternative entries this weekend.
Elliott also has two in this 11-strong 2m5f novices’ hurdle, though both are now in at Navan this weekend.
The two penalized males, Valgrand and Potters Charm, head the betting, with the latter shading favouritism at a best-priced [9/4], though he is as short as [13/8] in places.
Nigel Twiston-Davies was raving about Potters Charm after beating Minella Sixo (could re-oppose again) here last month but I thought Flying Fortune at 5s was more attractively priced, even though she has a 5lb penalty for her impressive Chepstow success in a good time.
But I see no need to get involved at the moment.
IMPORTANT UPDATE 1.15pm Tuesday: Patter Merchant and Mr Percy are in at Navan on Saturday, and Patter Merchant and Minella Sixo in at Navan on Sunday
GOING: GOOD
GOING STICK: 6.6 (Sunday 11.30am)
WEATHER: Dry and 10 degrees
WATERING: “Watering will continue to maintain and improve.” No amounts given.
1.45pm Cheltenham: Guard Your Dreams, Resplendent Grey, Broomfield Bijou
2.20pm Cheltenham: Calico, Libberty Hunter, Matata
(Unexpected Party finished second at Carlisle on Monday)
NB: Boothill, Master Chewy, Calico, Libberty Hunter and Unexpected Party also in an early-closing handicap at Ascot on November 23
2.55pm Cheltenham: Macgiloney, Tommie Beau, Slipway, Escaria Ten, Deise Aba, Farceur Du Large, Streets Of Doyen, Bodhisattva
NB: Conflated is in John Durkan on November 24
3.30pm Cheltenham: Rockstown Girl, Grandad’s Cap, Patter Merchant, Mr Percy, Minella Sixo
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
WITH ITV Racing showing 21 races from Friday to Sunday inclusive, it promises to be…
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