TONY CALVIN: THE DERBY – what price a full house of 20 on Saturday?

The Derby

We lost Luther, Opportunity, Purview, Rogue Millions, Shackleton, Too Soon and Wimbledon Hawkeye, and gained the supplemented French pair of Midak and New Ground (at a cost of 75k apiece), at Monday’s confirmation stage for the Derby, so we now have a possible 20 in the mix.

It could be a huge field on the day then – in theory, they could all go, as a maximum of 20 can run, though Puppet Master looks set to be the one to thwart a full house – though the weather could play its part there.

It is wet from today (Tuesday) onwards (see below), but the forecast improved overnight, so much so that Epsom have made the ballsy call to water today (see details below), after putting some down on the sprint track on Sunday.

Anyway, let’s see what unfolds on that front. Last Monday’s forecast for the week was hardly accurate, was it, and maybe it will just be a mixture of good and good to soft come Derby time.

Epsom had 3.4mm of rain on Tuesday to go with 5mm of watering in places.

And, while I remember, we have 72-hour declarations this year, so get yourself down to Epsom Playhouse at 11am on Wednesday if you want to be wowed by the live draw in person.

In such a probable big field, you may want to hold fire until you see where your fancy is berthed.

Oh, and another thing.

All firms are currently betting to a fifth the odds 1,2,3 each way, and it is easy to see some betting to four and five places on Saturday.

You may not be able to get on (all tipsters really have to be mindful of this now), and the enhanced terms will/may come with lesser odds, but waiting is definitely something to consider.

There were no real surprises at the confirmation stage, as far as I could see anyway, though given the yo-yoing price in the last week or so, I imagine ante-post backers of The Lion In Winter would have been relieved to still see him in the Classic fold.

I was tempted to do a horse-by-horse analysis of the 20 but that is anti-journalism (not that waffling away about horse racing and betting counts as journalism, granted) so run-on style it is.

It is the winter Derby favourite’s stablemate Delacroix who heads the betting now and I have no massive real argument with that – not that I would consider backing him at his current odds – after clear-cut defeats of stablemate Lambourn and the aforementioned Purview in two starts this season, though it has to be said the Ballysax was set up rather nicely for him.

Soft ground shouldn’t worry him if we get more rain than is currently forecast (Timeform called it heavy when he was touched off by Irish Guineas third Hotazhell in the Group 1 Futurity at Donny last season) but I couldn’t have him at a best price of [3/1], let alone the more generally available [9/4]. He has his stamina to prove too, as his illustrious pedigree certainly doesn’t make that a gimme.

I may as well deal with the rest of the Aidan O’Brien colts here, and he still has Dante sixth The Lion In Winter, improving Chester Vase winner Lambourn (he beat Lazy Griff, also in the field here, that day) and controversial Lingfield winner Puppet Master.

The most obvious one of those is The Lion In Winter, and it is simply a matter of how you view his comeback run, after an interrupted preparation, at York as to whether you are willing to chance him.

He may have been rusty and he wasn’t beaten too far, but you’d have still liked to have seen more, even if he wasn’t tuned up. And he won’t get away with pulling as hard as he did early doors at York, on the opening climb at Epsom.

He certainly looked the part when winning that red-hot Acomb at York last season, with Ruling Court in third, and the son of Sea The Stars should stay high, wide and handsome on his breeding.

However, is the prospect of possibly soft ground ideal for him – though perhaps we shouldn’t overplay that now – even without the nagging doubt of that exchange drift last week (even though it wasn’t a lot in money terms)? We have seen with Kyprios that there is occasionally something in these moves, however belated.

Guineas winner Ruling Court is unproven on soft ground (again, should it come to that), though Timeform called it good to soft when he won on his debut, and I’d be more concerned about his stamina, for all his sire Justify was responsible for last year’s winner City Of Troy.

Not for me at [4/1] (9/2 taken on Tuesday morning).

Pride Of Arras looks a far more appealing price at 5s after winning the Dante on only his second start, but my take would be if you like him at 5s (available in two places) then you must love the 1 ¼-length runner-up Damysus at 14s, available with two firms.

I have already backed the latter (at 14s and 12s) but I must admit the prospect of soft ground by race-time – alright, I will stop banging on about that now – worries me a touch (though Timeform called it good to soft when he was third in the Sandown Classic trial).

But I did love the way he shaped from off the pace and on the outside at York, and so did the Drone Mob momentarily as he actually hit 1.36 in running despite never being nearer than at the line – Timeform say he hit a low of 2s on their site, but I saw the market unfold live, even though sums at odds-on were small, and I am pretty certain it was 1.36 – and the step up to 1m4f will surely suit. He is by Frankel out of a 1m4f winner.

Some have remarked on his tendency to drift under pressure, and whether this track will suit him as a result – and he perhaps was a little too keen at York, too – but I didn’t see much to worry me on that score just yet. He is currently a weak [16.5] on Betfair.

Epsom itself may be a different story altogether though, obviously.

In behind him and the winner that day at York were his stablemate and 25s chance Nightwalker in fifth, Tuscan Hills in seventh and Sea Scout in eighth.

Pride Of Arras’ stablemate Stanhope Gardens is an intriguing one at [18/1].

They have clearly been playing catch-up with him and Ralph Beckett somehow managed to get the BHA to put on a 1m conditions race for him at Salisbury recently, which he duly won at [2/11] against two opponents.

That told us little other than he is still in working order but his neck second to Delacroix in the Autumn Stakes last season, with Nightwalker 4 lengths away in third, makes him of some interest here.

Timeform called it soft that day, and he has won on fast going, so he is ground-versatile and I’d say Delacroix had a big advantage being on the rail there when getting home narrowly.

The more I look at Stanhope Gardens, the more I like him.

As for his stamina, I am less convinced, though (he has only raced over 1m, after all); he could be more of a 1m2f jobber, though I guess his sire Ghaiyyath was a  dual 1m4f Group 1 winner and his dam won at 1m2f and has some stayers in the background of her pedigree.

All in all, 18s is a fair risk-to-reward, though.

I’ll deal with the outsiders in one fell swoop next – and they are Al Wasl Storm, Nightime Dancer, Green Storm and Rogue Dancer.

I’d say quotes of 150/1 and upwards probably underplay their prospects but you never know. Everyone seems to view this as a very open year, and rightly so.

Let’s deal with the supplemented French pair now, shall we.

Of course, I have been tracking their careers very closely – I had never heard of neither on Sunday – but I’m sure some will be drawn into the story behind Midak.

The Derby is named after the late Aga Khan this year and this horse is owned by his daughter.

The trainer apparently insists that is just a coincidence and he was thinking about this race for his unbeaten colt before he even clocked Epsom were honouring the late AK.

Make of that what you will, but stamina will not be an issue here for a colt who made his debut over 1m3f in March, and he is an intriguing contender, no doubt. He looked pretty tasty upped to Group 3 company at Saint-Cloud last time.

That form looks superior to that of New Ground, beaten in Listed company last time, but apparently connections feel the Juddmonte colt hasn’t been seen to best effect over in slowly-run races over 1m1f and 1m2f this season and expect him to blossom for a strongly-run 1m4f.

I can 100pc see that.

He won over 1m2f on his 2yo debut, he has deep ground form if required, and he looks a plausible 50s fixed-odds poke (two firms).

Of course, he has a lot to find on the book but he did exceptionally well to finish a close third from so far off the pace at Chantilly last time and he would have won in another 50 yards or so. It was a race he should have won.

And his earlier third to French Derby second and fifth over 1m1f at Longchamp strongly hinted at a stayer.

Alexis Pouchin is jocked up and he has never ridden at Epsom. A concern, no doubt.

Connections report he is a well-balanced horse but surely this is a line plenty trot out as a matter of course when it comes to Derby chat, unless they stick them on a see-saw at home…

Tornado Alert trades at 40s and Saeed bin Suroor is the latest trainer to say his horse was only 80-85 per cent fit for his run in a Classic, in his case the 2,000 Guineas.

If that was the truth (which you’d seriously question) then he ran a monumental race to finish 4 ½ lengths fourth to Ruling Court.

On pure ability he looks overpriced (the reliable yardstick Wimbledon Hawkeye was in fifth) and some of his siblings stayed a lot further than 1m4f. They were by Sea The Stars though, not his sire, miler (though Dante second) Too Darn Hot.

What have I yet to mention?

Just Tennessee Stud, I think.

He is 66s in a place. A 1m2f Group 1 winner on heavy ground at two (in a three-runner race, in which he beat Green Storm), he made a satisfactory reappearance when a 6 ¾ length third to Delacroix at Leopardstown, a race in which he was pretty weak in the market.

I am going to sit on my hands for now and see what the weather does before having any fresh bets. But that New Ground is winking at me, and I don’t really know him.

So I asked someone who specialises in French racing about him to try to get a better handle on him.

They said: “There is talent coming out of both ears, but what’s between them could be his downfall.

“Unless they’ve taught him how to settle in the last 30 days, that is. The foot-down way he came down the hill at Longchamp would be another worry. But talent is talent.”

He currently trades at [70.0] on the exchange, which has currently seen just 262k matched as of 8am on Tuesday morning.

I’ll re-iterate that if you want an each-way bet in this race, you are surely better off waiting until you see a price-collapse coming on one in the next 24 hours.

Remember, with 72-hours decs, the ante-post market will close at 10am on Wednesday (and most firms will shut up shop earlier than that, around 8am, and some overnight).

And that live draw could be worth watching for once.

GOING AND WEATHER

EPSOM (updated Wednesday)

Going: Good

Going sticks

• 5 Furlong Course

Flat Turf: Good (GSt 6.7, Wednesday 7am)

• Derby Course

Flat Turf: Good (GSt 6.9, Wednesday 7am)

Wednesday morning update: Dry since May 27 until 3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry bar isolated showers Wednesday. Unsettled thereafter, but with continued uncertainty as to volumes of rain, which will be showery in nature. Met Office suggesting 2-5mm rain Thursday morning, showers from mid morning Friday into the evening, then potential showers through Saturday, some of which could be heavy. Temperatures generally mid to high teens for the week.

Watering: First 2f of 5f Course watered Sunday – 10mm. 5mm irrigation applied to Home Straight and selective areas of Back Straight during Tuesday. No further irrigation.

Forecast: 10mm Thursday, 1mm Friday, 8mm through Saturday (starting early hours)

Rails: Rail on Innermost configuration, with all distances as advertised.

Stalls:5f – Stands Side 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside