TONY CALVIN: 33/1 chance has a lot more going for him than the odds suggest

Waiting on the weather

Think Michael Jones in rugby and Eric Liddell in athletics, I tend to have a day off punting on Sundays -well, actually, I tend to give Monday-Fridays a miss most weeks, too – but I’ll wait on the updated overnight weather updates from Doncaster and the Curragh before betting myself.

Both are set to get rain before racing today too (see below) and the Doncaster forecasts have not been accurate this week.

There is a yellow weather warning (wind) in place for Doncaster today, which could have a big bearing on the racing too, depending on the direction of travel.

NRs are flooding in at Doncaster.

Curragh/Doncaster “latest”

On Saturday morning it was good to yielding, yielding in places, at the Curragh, with some rain to come through the day (no idea how much they got).

And they are set to get heavier rain from 9am this morning.

Doncaster changed their going to soft after the third race yesterday, so disregard the BHA site which currently lists the going as Good, Good to soft in places.

It could well be very testing there by race-time, but it is probably best to hold fire until we know the current state of play. Especially with that wind warning in place.

But I suppose it is safe to work on the basis of a minimum of soft ground at Donny.

In fact, as at 7.52am, it is good to soft, soft in places, but it looks highly likely the rain will arrive around 2pm, and stick around. 

Doncaster analysis

Well, the numbers held up remarkably well for the last day of the four-day Doncaster St Leger meeting.

The opening handicap was divided into two races of 11 instead of balloting two out (maximum field allowed was 20) – Julie Parkes is now loved doubly-so (see the race title) – so I imagine that helps to keep the wolf from the Arc door with media rights payments.

And the five ITV races have field sizes of between 16 and 19.

Unheard of.

I doubted whether I would get involved when I first started looking at the races properly around 4.30am this morning (a late start for me…), while awaiting the weather updates (betting on deteriorating ground after three days of racing probably isn’t an ideal punting combo – and any betting I will be do there will be minimal), but let’s see what I found.

I have decided to leave the Curragh alone as I am not betting there.

Blind pigs, truffles buried in the shit, and all that…

We can rule out getting involved in the Leger Legends at 3.35pm straight away, though at least a lot of the jockeys have ridden relatively recently.

In fact, I must have missed the fact that Adam Kirby had retired (a google search confirmed he packed it in on April 29 this year), and he rides the [5/2] favourite Moonjid.

Air Force One’s dismal showing in the Portland has ensured that my fleeting dalliance with sprint handicaps has hereby ended, so the 6f+ and 5f handicaps at 3pm and 4.40pm were off the schedule (they even have a 20-runner 5f handicap to finish off the meeting, as well as punters no doubt).

And I filed the 19-runner Group 3 fillies’ race at 4pm firmly under the too difficult category.

Then thankfully a bet appeared like the phoenix from the sodden flames.

2.30pm – 33/1 The Waco Kid has optimum conditions here off a falling handicap mark

The 19-runner 7f handicap at 2.30pm isn’t far off sprint status and it is terribly competitive, though you can see why Indian Springs has been installed as the [3/1] favourite, for all this is the deepest ground he will have encountered.

He is a lightly-raced, well-bred horse of Godolphin’s, whose opening handicap mark of 96 may not be too bad on the scant evidence available. He is after all related to a lot of winners, chief among them the stable’s 114-rated Group 2 winner Lazuli, but the ground would definitely worry me at the price.

UPDATE: Indian Springs is a big NR as at 8.57am (going).

Two that appealed to me most were Lakers at 33s in a place, and The Waco Kid at a general 33s, and it was the latter who drew me in to a win-only bet.

He has clearly not kicked on from his impressive soft-ground Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes success last September, though he has often been highly-tried, but he has come down 10lb in the weights as a result and he showed a lot more spark at Chester last time, when tried in a tongue-tie/visor combo, which are retained here.

A 4-length fifth of 10, hampered a little close home, was a step back in the right direction, and off 99 now in much softer ground (and back a touch in distance, too), he could well surprise.

And I now have him down as one of two pace angles now that Sarab Star has come out.

Everyone tells me that Warren Fentiman is great value for his 5lb claim (though his 10 per cent win strike-rate certainly doesn’t knock your eye out), so I’ll take that as a further positive.

And the horse, owned by a group of ex-Betfair employees, also ran well when third in the Flying Scotsman over course and distance at this meeting last season.

That’s a fair case, I think, at the price.

All in all, the general 33s (available with 14 firms as this goes live, the two bits of 40s having gone around 7am this morning) is worth a wildish swing on a day where my hand will be mostly in my pocket.

Intrusively, Sarab Star and Indian Springs are NRs

BET

The Waco Kid at 33/1 in 2.30pm at Doncaster

SUNDAY DETAILS

DONCASTER

GOING – Good to soft, soft in places

Going stick: 6.1, Sunday 7.30am

Rails: Round – Innermost line. Same line as previous day.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

Sunday morning course update: 2.8mm yesterday; Sunday – dry and bright through this morning. Showers moving in from approx 2pm, turning potentially heavy at times and lasting through until the end of racing. Southerly winds, gusting at times. Temps 18C

Weather:  4mm+ starting from 2pm according to main site I use (and they could get a lot more than 4mm)

CURRAGH

14 September 11.44am – Following 1mm of rain, The Curragh is now yielding (Straight) & remains good to yielding, yielding in places (Round). Strong headwind at present

14 September 8.10am – Following a dry & breezy 24hrs, The Curragh is now yielding, good to yielding in places (Straight) & remains good to yielding, yielding in places (Round). Possibility of 5-7mm (approx) of rain this morning. Slight headwind in Straight at present

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (ITV races)

Ger Lyons, Suzie Songs hood, 2.40pm Curragh; 8-30; 26.67%; +17.5pts – PRETTY IMPRESSIVE

Aidan O’Brien,  Whistlejacket blinkers, 3.15pm Curragh; 67-386; 17.36%; -37.07pts

Ross Burdon, D Day Major Winter hood (reserve 3.35pm Doncaster)– this is first time he’s used a hood

Roy Bowring; Hiya Maite blinkers, 4.40pm Doncaster; 5-82 ; 6.1% -13pts; (he has had 25-1 and 14-1 winners in first-time blinkers)

NB in the opener James Ferguson re Papagei; this is the first time he has used blinkers (he has used hood, cheekpieces and visors before)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; draws attached) and NRs

2.30pm Doncaster: The Waco Kid (drawn 13), Tiger Mask (5) – Intrusively, Sarab Star and Indian Springs are NRs

2.40pm Curragh: Beautify (6), Composing (4), Precise (7), Suzie Songs (3)

3pm Doncaster: Aleezdancer (12), Baldomero (11), Desert Falcon (8) (Royal Velvet NR as at 7.50am – going -followed by Ten Pounds and Aalto and Indian Run)

3.15pm Curragh: Art Power (3), Bucanero Fuerte (2), Night Raider (8), Two Stars (12), Arizona Blaze (4), She’s Quality (13), Grande Marques (9) – Saratoga Special NR

3.35pm Doncaster – this is the Legends race, so who knows but Ayr Poet , Finn Ironside, Shazani – Golden Pharoah, Siam Fox and D Day Major Winter are NRs (going)

3.50pm Curragh: Dorset (4), North Coast (3)

4.10pm Doncaster: Spiritual (1), Fair Angelica (6), Stop The Cavalry (18), Sunfall (11) – Hey Boo is a NR

4.25pm Curragh: Al Qareem (2), Dallas Star (6), Illinois (7), Leinster (8), Queenstown (4)

4.40pm Doncaster: Super Saiyan (14), The Bell Conductor (11),  Hiya Maite (1), Dakota Gold (17) – Emperor Spirit, Ventura Express, Harvanna, Reigning Profit and Tees Spirit are NRs

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; fully up to date)

Good: Charlie Appleby, Karl Burke, Hamad Al Jehani, James Fanshawe, Ralph Beckett, William Haggas, Kevin Philippart De Foy, James Owen, George Boughey, Geoff Oldroyd (very small sample), Roger Varian. Mick Appleby, Scott Dixon, Ivan Furtado, John Mackie (very small sample), Jamie Osborne, Faye Bramley, Craig Lidster, Adrian Keatley, Ollie Sangster, Stuart Williams, J A Stack, Tim Easterby, John and Thady Gosden, Andrew Balding. Aidan O’Brien (turned it around in storming fashion on Saturday)

Fair:   Hugo Palmer, Tom Clover, Richard Hannon, Ed Bethell, Muir and Grassick, Harry Charlton, Michael Dods, David O’Meara, Ian Williams, William Knight, Kevin Ryan, Julie Camacho, Jim Goldie, Richard Fahey, Ed Walker, Eve Johnson Houghton, Adrian Nicholls, David and Nicola Barron (no winners), Robert Cowell (borderline good), Charlie Fellowes, Nigel Tinkler, Iain Jardine, Daniel James Murphy, Andrew Slattery, Jack Davison, Joseph O’Brien, Jessie Harrington, Archie Watson

Moderate:  Jack Channon, David Loughnane (12-1 winner on Friday, though), Kevin Frost, Dylan Cunha, Richard Hughes, John Gallagher, Adrian Murray, Michael Keady, Ruth Carr, Paul Midgley, Jessica Macey, Joseph Murphy, Willie McCreery, Ger Lyons

Don’t know: Edward Smyth-Osbourne, Tim Vaughan, John Wainwright, Roy Bowring, Ross Burdon, Billy Aprahamian, Henry Dwyer, Gerard Keane, P Vovcenko