By Tony Calvin - 3 May 2025
As at 11am on Sunday, AKBets are top price about all the horses in the 1,000 Guineas.
I flagged up the chances of Duty First each way at 20s earlier in the week and, with the numbers dwindling pretty much as expected – third favourite Red Letter, very weak in the exchange market, has been confirmed but three Aidan O’Brien fillies (Bedtime Story, Exactly and Merrily) have been taken out, along with Chantez – I am happy enough with the position.
She now ranges from 10s to 14s, and predictably bigger win-only at 16.0 on an admittedly illiquid exchange market.
What I wrote about her on Tuesday (or was it Monday?), replicated in part below, holds true
Initially, I would have been one of many to dismiss the Group 1 worth of her 3 ¼-length win at 33s in the Fred Darling (the next five home were priced up at 40s, 14s, 80s, 40s and 125s, and it sounds like connections were looking at the Italian 1,000 for her beforehand) but she clearly was a dominant winner from Hey Boo (I wouldn’t lay her at 66s here) and the time was good (as was the ground).
And to put a shinier bow on it, the then 111-rated Shimmering (also confirmed for this) was beaten 9 3/4 lengths in seventh.
I tend to nick all my speed figure analysis from others (if you can’t be good, be honest and namecheck) and one of my favourite Time Bandits, Graeme North, on the Sporting Life website, was very complimentary about her.
The extra furlong is a concern of sorts for this speedily-bred filly – and Sunday’s ground may well be the quickest she has run on.
But you can’t fear too many in here outside of the unbeaten favourite Desert Flower and the 119-rated Lake Victoria, who hasn’t had a smooth prep and is expected to improve plenty for the run (if you believe the trainer).
Red Letter is rated 111, with Duty First on 109, so I’d be hopeful of at least the place part of the bet copping.
Of course, there are other possible negatives (there always are at 20s), and she may not have been in love with the Newmarket track when third on soft ground (could have been the going) in the Rockfel last September, but the bet has been struck and I have to remain positive.
Betty Clover, the 5 1/2-length fourth, gave the Newbury form a boost of sorts when beaten by a gnat’s hampton in Listed company at Goodwood on Saturday
How you view the betting of [5/4] plays [11/4] about Desert Flower versus Lake Victoria depends on how much you buy into the pessimistic talk of O’Brien – getting the excuses in early perhaps -but it clearly isn’t hard to see the unbeaten Godolphin filly dancing in here.
Or indeed the similarly unbeaten, five from five, Ballydoyle filly, as that pair cast a big form shadow over this race and arguably make three places each-way betting very unattractive.
But if I am going to have another bet (I have had two) I may chuck a very speculative few quid at Fred Darling runner-up Hey Boo at the general 66s, as she shaped as though a mile was needed at Newbury and we are dealing with a filly having just her fourth start here.
We can but dream as punters.
I imagine you could get bigger if you wait (I got that wrong as she is just 40s in two places on Sunday morning)
That is what connections of the once-raced winners Elwateen (put up by Hugh Taylor at 66s earlier in the week) and Chantilly Lace (a fine specimen according to the paddock judges – do you have to pass a test to get those gigs?) are doing, and good luck to them.
The pair have plenty of potential to unleash, that is for sure.
The reason why [11/2] third favourite Red Letter was so weak in the ante-post market is because Ger Lyons was making noises that the filly wouldn’t run if it is too fast.
I imagine the clerk (who has played a blinder so far) will be under pressure to water again after racing on Saturday (admirably, he has held firm, so to speak, much to the disappointment of Lyons, no doubt).
Finally, there have been recent nibbles for the aforementioned Simmering from 50s to 33.
Again, those at Newbury said she was big as a bull for her disappointing return in the Fred Darling – I think it was Jason Weaver, but he, or no-one else, presumably told the market as she was backed from 10/3 to 5/2 on the show – and her 2yo form, which included a 3-length Group 2 success and a 1 ¼-length second to Lake Victoria in the Moyglare, certainly gives her chances oh hitting the board here.
Yes, I can see why the 50s was taken (I’ve backed her and Hey Boo), and why the general 33s could be coming under pressure, for all she looked all over the place, and very awkward, when attempting to make her effort 2f out at Newbury, coming home a tame 7th of 9.
I imagine she will only get shorter if you wait (available at 30s on Sunday morning)
Likealot was a NR as at 8.05am due to the going, so we now have just seven runners in this race. Currently the only NR on the card.
A race full of unknowns, even if all eight have won a race, with half of the field unbeaten.
It’s obviously a tough race to call, with the speed figures not appearing to give much of a clue, so this wouldn’t be a contest I’d get too jiggy about from a betting perspective.
I’ll throw in a couple of mildly interesting snippets.
Anna Swan has her first start for William Haggas, having joined in as part of the Sir Michael Stoute dispersal (Fox Legacy was the latest winner for that angle on Saturday).
Janey Mackers was left in the 1,000 Guineas on Monday, so they clearly think this wide-margin 1m Donny winner (on soft ground) is well up to this Listed grade and is more of a stayer than a speedster.
Falakeyah got rave reviews after winning at Wolverhampton and she is the early [2/1] favourite (the [9/4] was taken on Saturday morning), though she is [13/8] elsewhere.
Likealot was a much juicier price at 20s (three places) and that was probably the most attractive bet on offer (if there is one) as, while the bare form of her Chelmsford 1m2f win on debut is pretty modest form, she is quite well-related and you sense the Ralph Beckett yard are ready to catch fire soon.
But I very much doubt I’ll be having a bet, as it is effectively a guessing game.
And I certainly won’t now that the 20s and 16s about Likealot was all taken on Saturday morning during the subbing/re-writing process, with 14s now the best on offer (and that is just in one place), and she is as low as 9s.
She is going one way in the market – and quickly.
Not sure what sparked that mini-move to pennies, but it irked a touch.
One of the main purposes of ITV coverage – whether you like it or not – is to drive betting turnover, so I never understand why races such as this 2yo contest (and the Wood Ditton, and the like) make it on to the coverage.
Admittedly, a little bit of difference is welcome now and again, but this race only attracted 11 entries at the five—day stage (seven were unraced, and the other four each had one start to their name) and it always promised to be a damp squib.
We have been left with four – and that is only because two of these came in very late.
The sole runner with form., Anthelia, was a very cheap purchase at 6k but she did it very well at Bath on her debut when a big on-the-show drifter.
She is the known factor after that success, but because of that she has to give the other three fillies 5lb.
Ollie Sangster won this race last season (that one had the benefit of a run) and he runs newcomer Piazza, an 80k yearling. He stuck in his other filly, Lovethiswayagain, at 9.57am, and presumably did so because of the small field.
Richard Hannon also put in his Madame X in late on, too, just before Sangster threw his second dart.
That’s all I have got, sorry.
If you are betting, you are on your own.
Perhaps literally, as how can anyone have a punting opinion in this?
For what it is worth, Anthelia and Piazza are the early [15/8] joint favourites.
There were only seven in the Dahlia Stakes at the five-day stage, so the course will have been happy enough with five runners.
It may lack the numbers then, but there is a fair bit of stardust – well, that may be overplaying it – for a Group 2.
A year ago, Elmalka was winning the 1,000 Guineas on this card – she escapes a penalty for that Group 1 win as they only kick in from August 31 – and Beautiful Love, Cinderella’s Dream and Running Lion are all just about the same horse as her on official figures. Some a little better.
Andrew Balding’s Secret Satire, one of the two potential pace angles alongside Running Lion, has plenty to find but she is only 14s and is not even the current outsider of the quintet (that place goes to 16s poke Beautiful Love).
I couldn’t see a bet, though Running Lion probably deserves to be the marginal favourite at [2/1] in a place. As is usually the case, all the stand-out prices are soon trimmed, and she was [9/4] first thing on Saturday morning.
She is another to have dodged a penalty for her Group 2 Royal Ascot win last season and probably ran a career-best when we last saw her get chinned by ¾-length in the Prix de l’Opera.
Bizarrely, she traded at 1.01 in this race last season despite being beaten 3 ½ lengths – you don’t get many of those to the pound on the Flat, although Matthew Mantle would have a better idea…
Jim Goldie’s yard is rolling into a bit of form and he is responsible for three of the eight in here. And it is a decent enough 0-95 1m5f handicap.
I’ll cut to the chase, though. I have no betting interest n this, and beware of the dead-eight….
And beware of clerks not telling punters how much they have watered.
The Hamilton clerk is the latest culprit, for whatever reason .
I’d genuinely like to know why they, and the four clerks on Saturday, don’t just give the information.
It is a very bad look, and makes them look unprofessional.
A 10-runner handicap, that’s more like it.
Liam Swagger is the clear favourite after a good run at Chelmsford last month – he is 2lb well-in here – and he has an obvious chance.
But the two that interested me at the current prices were Wild Waves and Align The Stars at 8s and 9s respectively.
We have to forgive them shockers in the Queen’s Cup behind Kihavah at Musselburgh last time – and bizarrely that is exactly what the handicapper did as he didn’t drop either an ounce (though Align The Stars was 1lb well-in at Musselburgh – but that is why we are getting the prices, I guess.
And remember, they filled the first two places in the betting at Musselburgh, with Align The Stars at [10/3] and Wild Waves at 4s.
Everything went wrong from the start for Align The Stars that day, and he got a terrible wide trip, before finishing stone last.
Forgive him that run , which could have come too quickly after an excellent third at Nottingham on his return (not sure I buy that myself, but it was only a 10-day turnaround), and he has a big chance here.
He looked a stayer on the up last year before his season rather fell apart when overfaced at the back-end in Group company. Maybe one to back one win-only if you can get the 9s.
Wild Waves also ran a Barry Crocker in that race, beaten 37 lengths – his jockey seemed to give up pretty early there though, so maybe something was amiss – but you surely have to draw a line through that and move on.
If he returns to the form of his Melrose fourth, or perhaps more accurately his St Leger run, then he will make his presence felt here off a mark of 100.
Notwithstanding that run last time. I’d be inclined to him each-way, and there are four places out there for the lucky souls who have the appropriate accounts.
I’d marginally prefer Wild Waves at 8s and [15/2] each way, four places, if you want only one bet in the race.
Wild Waves at [8/1] or [15/2] each way, four places, in 2.55pm at Newmarket. Available in two places.
Going: Good to firm
Going stick: 7.6 Sunday 6am (was 7.4 Saturday 6am) – it’d be good if the course posted going stick readings across the track
Sunday morning course update: 1.5mm of rain since the Craven Meeting. Forecast: Dry day but feeling much cooler (11c.)
Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and 10mm applied on Monday. Further 15mm applied on Wednesday
Forecast: Maybe odd shower, 10-11 degrees, chilly
Rails: Stands Side Course in use
Stalls: Centre
Going: Good to firm
Going stick: 8.7 Saturday 4.45pm
Sunday morning update: Only two amounts of rain have been received in recent weeks. These were 7mm on 19th April and 9mm on 23rd April. Recent weather has been very warm and sunny. Sunday is forecasted to be dry, but cooler at 16’c, moderate breeze.
Watering: Watered 8mm on Friday 25th. Watered 7mm on Monday 28th. Watered 8mm on Thursday 1st May Watered 7mm on Friday 2nd May. Watered 8mm on Saturday 3rd May.
Forecast: Dry and 14 degrees
Stalls: 5F, 6F, 7F – Far side 1M2F – Inside 1M4F – Stands side
Going: Good to firm, good in places
Going stick: 8.5, Sunday 6.30am
Sunday morning course update: 0mm last 24 hours. Met Office Forecast. Sun – Slight grass frost this morning with early morning temperatures at 2.5c, forecast sunny intervals. 14c.
Rails: Line 4 for races around the loop.
Stalls: 1m5f, 1m4f, 1m3f, 5f & 6f Stand side. 1m1f &1m inside.
Weather: Dry and 12 degrees
Watering: “Watered to maintain”
Charlie Johnston visor – Sax Appeal. 2.35pm Hamilton
He is 2-35 with a visor first time (the two winners both came on the all-weather at 14-1 and 3-1 in 2023).
1.45pm Newmarket: Anna Swan, Life Is Beautiful, Likealot (prom)
2pm Salisbury (four runners, three unraced): N/A
2.20pm Newmarket: Secret Satire, Running Lion
2.35pm Hamilton: Alnayef, Kitteridge?, Two Auld Pals, Sax Appeal
2.55pm Newmarket: Align The Stars, Blindedbythelights (prom)?, Artistic Star
3.35pm Newmarket (10 runners): Duty First? Elwateen (prom), Remaat, Flight, Red Letter. Lake Victoria?
Good: John and Thady Gosden, William Haggas (treble on Saturday), David Menuisier, Roger Varian, Aidan O’Brien, Owen Burrows, William Knight, Archie Watson, Ollie Sangster, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Appleby, Ralph Beckett (winner on Saturday), Ed Walker (five winners in the last two days)
Fair: Richard Hannon, James Owen, Andrew Balding (treble on Friday after a dry spell, and a winner on Saturday), Sir Mark Prescott, Charlie Johnston, Adrian Keatley, Ger Lyons, Jim Goldie (winners on Thursday and Friday and seems to be coming into some kind of form)
Moderate: Ian Williams, Rod Millman (has gone off the boil a bit), Lucinda Russell (a few have run well obviously)
Don’t know: Saeed Bin Suroor, Martin Todhunter (winner on Saturday, though)
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