TONY CALVIN: Step down in trip should be ideal for 7/1 chance

No Aidan O’Brien runners, and no Ryan Moore, at Goodwood on Friday – the jockey is off to Saratoga – and thank god for David O’Meara or else the 150k Coral Golden Mile at 3pm wouldn’t have come close to filling.

O’Meara was responsible for eight of the 20-runners – he has actually just pulled out two of them at 10.20am on Thursday morning because of the going – and Charlie Johnston has also weighed in with three.

The Northern numbers powerhouses are flexing their handicap muscle down south.

1.50pm – Super, Smashing, Lovely at 7/1

I am quite embarrassed to say that I had to check where Warwickshire was on the map but, anyway, I hope the trophy for the opening 2m4f94yd handicap is going back to Olly Murphy’s gaff there, as Super Superjack has a lot going for him.

He has hardly been missed in the market but I still think he remains a decent win-only investment at [13/2], including with AKBets.

He is actually available at 7s in two places, but the [13/2] recommendation is the fairest. Take the 7s if you can, obviously.

I’m happy to play on the nose as the horse has clearly had his problems in recent years.

Murphy has his jumping string in very good form – he nearly made it into the excellent category in the trainer-form assessments below – and it looks like he has steadily built up his new charge for this race once again.

When he was formerly trained by Milton Harris, former beau of Belinda Carlisle (carrying on the northern theme there, and that comedy line) – and I have just seen he has set up a tipping line – the horse won on his first start at this track and then went on to finish second in this very race in 2022.

And he should have won handsomely there as he was given a lot to do, and he met trouble in running at crucial moments.

Yes, I did back him then, too.

He didn’t get a clear passage on his debut for Murphy when fourth at Nottingham in May, after 654 days off the track, and he certainly wasn’t given a hard time over 1m6f at Ascot last month.

I am surprised the handicapper dropped him 1lb for that kid gloves ride, but he did, and he is now 2lb lower than when an unlucky loser in this race two years ago.

The trip and ground are clearly no issues, and Tom Marquand is one from one for the yard.

Everything is in place for a massive run.

Murphy actually has another live contender in last year’s third, Tronador, even if he did run poorly at Worcester last month, but the one I was toying with as a saver was Vino Victrix at [11/1].

He, too, ran badly last time, but I can forgive any horse a poor showing on the Newmarket July course, and he got a real Brucie Bonus of a 2lb drop for it.

He had shaped very well in two previous starts over 2m here this season and he is now 9lb lower than his peak rating, achieved when second in the 2022 Cesarewitch.

I have decided I want him onside at [11/1], so he gets my vote.

One word of warning.

Both want the ground to remain decent. The current going is good to firm, but they watered on Wednesday night and rain is due around 3pm on Thursday, with maybe 6mm or so landing. It is currently set to be dry on Friday though, so we should be okay.

2.25pm – Socialite could lead the way

I thought this 1m Group 3 contest was very tricky, which is why it is [7/2] the field if you shop around.

The 4s about recent impressive Newmarket winner Al Musmak was taken early on Thursday morning and he is the right favourite after what he did last time.

However, Dancing Gemini and Task Force (first-time tongue-tie could be interesting as he has had a wind op before the Guineas) are serious form rivals at their best, and Socialite would have interested me at [8/1] had his trainer been in better form.

Hills has had the odd horse run well, such as 25s poke Racingbreaks Ryder on Wednesday, but he is on a pretty long losing spell. I am not saying it is a massive negative but trainer form is always something to consider when betting (see below).

Socialite has a fair bit to find with Al Musmak on their Newmarket running but he is a lightly-raced colt going the right way, and he could get his own way out in front here.

Anyway, no bet for me.

3pm – The O’Meara massive out to bully the opposition

O’Meara now has just six in here then, and one of those, Blue For You, is the [11/2] favourite.

That seems justified as the 2022 runner-up (to stablemate Orbaan, who is also in here) won well at York last time, and the second won the big handicap at Ascot last weekend. He is also 1lb well-in under his 3lb penalty.

Saturday’s Ascot runner-up New Image (another of the O’Meara massive) was officially the best handicapped horse, as he is set to go up 3lb in future – he has just come out – and Holloway Boy and Benacre are also 1lb well-in.

In races like these, I think you have to play at a price if you are getting involved, as luck plays massive role in this race.

And so did a low draw, until Johan won from 18 last season, coming out quickly, along with Darkness from 15, and getting on the front end, out of trouble.

I couldn’t see any guaranteed pace in here (see below). One who does like to go forward (though he occasionally misses the kick) is Benacre, but at the time of writing he is due to run at Wolverhampton on Thursday night, so siding with him is obviously problematical.

After much to-ing and fro-ing, I decided I am not having a bet. I appreciate the temptation is to have a financial interest in the big betting race of the day, but I thought it was a nasty betting contest, if truth be told.

The aforementioned 18s chance Benacre came closest, but I can hardly tip him blind, with that Wolverhampton run in the offing beforehand.

3.35pm – Too many strings to play in Qatar race

I’ll cut straight to the chase, and I am not getting involved here, either.

I wouldn’t be surprised if any of this lot, bar Sturlasson, won this race, so I’m out.

4.10pm – 7/1 Haunted a dream each way bet

I don’t normally bet or tip each way in eight-runner races, certainly not a day ahead of the race, as a non-runner always seems to bite you on your arse.

However, I am going to suggest you back Haunted Dream each way at [13/2], as I want the safety net of places on my side.

And if I only have one place, due to one or more withdrawals, then so be it.

Simply put, I think this horse has been running over the wrong trip.

That may seem a strange thing to say given he has a whole host of form over 1m2f, including when second off 98 in a big-field handicap at this meeting last season – he hit 1.05 in running – and when runner-up in the Wolferton two starts ago.

Of course, he stays 1m2f. However, he rarely hits the line hard in those races and he actually did very well to finish second at Royal Ascot, as Christophe Soumillon rode him far too aggressively.

He needs to bounce back from a below-par run over an extended 1m2f in the John Smith’s Cup last time but I love the step down to 1m1f, and hopefully James Doyle can finesse him into the race and deliver him late. He has a potent kick when utilized correctly.

I am not sure why they have put a tongue-tie on him, but that doesn’t deter me, and I don’t expect him to be out of the first three if all eight run.

Of course, I respect My Prospero and Cicero’s Gift, but I expect improvement from Haunted Dream, dropped to 1m1f once again, as that could be his optimum trip.

He rates my bet of the day at 5s or bigger, each way. Fingers crossed, we don’t have a non-runner, but we cannot control that.

Nothing doing in the final two races

I make no apologies for a much shorter column than usual but I just can’t see a bet in the final two races, so there is no point waffling on, with an inevitable Kevin Pullein conclusion.

Good luck.

BETS

Super Superjack at [13/2] win-only in 1.50pm at Goodwood (7s available in two places)

Vino Victrix at [11/1] win-only in 1.50pm at Goodwood. Available in four places, but 10s also acceptable.

Haunted Dream at [13/2] each way in 16:10 at Goodwood. Available in 13 places, including AKBets (also available at 7s in two places).

BALLOTED OUT

3pm:  Alpha Crucis

5.20pm:  Clockmaker, Candle Of Dubai, Old Saxony, Open Secret, Royal Blaze, Versatile

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for all Goodwood races)

Richard Fahey visor 11-181 (since 2009)

Alice Haynes cheekpieces 2-59 (2021)

William Knight cheekpieces 1-16 (2017)

Richard Hannon blinkers 26-218 (2014)

Andrew Balding visor 18-159 (2009)

GOING/WEATHER

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good to firm

GOING STICK READINGS:  7.7 as at 7.10am Thursday

WEATHER: Maybe 6mm on Thursday afternoon; dry Friday

WATERING: Bends watered again on Wednesday night and 5mm put on the straight

PACE MAPS for ITV races

1.50pm Goodwood : Temporize, Oceanline

2.25pm Goodwood : Socialite, Native American?

3.00pm Goodwood : Holloway Boy?, Talis Evolvere?, Revich?, Urban Sprawl?, Benacre?

3.35pm Goodwood: Ponntos, Live In The Dream, Desperate Hero, Big Evs, Sturlasson?

TRAINERFORM for the four ITV races (does not include Thursday’s racing)

EXCELLENT: Tom Clover, Adrian Keatley, George Scott

GOOD: Roger Varian, Ed Walker, William Haggas, Hughie Morrison, Andrew Balding, David O’Meara, Olly Murphy, George Baker, John and Thady Gosden, Richard Spencer, David Menuisier, Dylan Cunha, William Knight, Joseph O’Brien

FAIR: Richard Hughes (though needs a winner), Richard Hannon, Charlie Johnston (borderline moderate with so many runners, though 2 winners from 13 runners on Tuesday), Ralph Beckett,, David Simcock (could do with more winners), Alice Haynes (22-1 winner on Monday), Hamad Al Jehani, Karl Burke (arguably more good), Alan King, Peter Chapple-Hyam, Clive Cox, Eve Johnson Houghton, Gary and Josh Moore, Syd Hosie, Harriet Dickin, Tracy Waggott (some have run well but winnerless), Jack Channon, Roger Teal, Jonathan Portman, Adam West, George Boughey, Mick Appleby, Jane Chapple-Hyam (needs a winner), Ian Williams, Richard Fahey

MODERATE: Emma Lavelle (not many runners and couple have run okay, I suppose), David Pipe, Charles Hills, Kieran Cotter, Stuart Williams, Michael Attwater (though couple have run well), Marcus Tregoning, Ken Condon (not many runners), Amanda Perrett

DON’T KNOW:  Miroslav Nieslanik, Henry Dwyer