By Tony Calvin - 10 April 2025
We are down to seven runners here, so we are two places in the main
You’ll be glad to hear that I will put the going watering to one side now – I’ve left the copy in here below for those want to read it – and not least because they are obviously racing at Ayr and Newbury on Friday, and we won’t know how the ground is riding until the times come through later.
It is currently good to soft at Ayr, with softer patches down the back straight.
They have put on 88mm in the last 10 days.
The first thing to say about this race is that there are eight runners and one of those, Asta La Pasta, is due to run in the 3.50pm on Friday.
A fair few horses have backed up within 24 hours at this meeting – indeed, Theinval, a dual winner of this race, was one – but there has to be a serious doubt if the dead eight will stand for each-way punters.
And they’ll probably be a Rule 4 for punters, so keep an eye out for non-runner news. Asta La Pasta came home clear in a three-finisher race at Ayr on Friday, so he may turn out again. If he does, he will be nearer 6s now.
He has been taken out as “off colour” as at 7.25am on Saturday – meaning we are down to just seven runners, unfortunately.
I thought Malystic, from the in-form Peter Niven yard, was interesting in first-time cheekpieces (though Niven’s record in this area is hardly bet inducing – see below for headgear stats), and the 14s in a place on Friday morning looked fair enough win-only.
He has tumbled down the weights very quickly and this could have been a plan, given he won this race in 2023 and finished a neck second in it the year before. They came off marks 10lb and 8lb higher respectively, too.
And he didn’t run all that badly at Doncaster last time and he got dropped 5lb in one fell swoop for it, which seems rather generous, even if he is an 11yo.
Etalon is the other obvious one of note, having had a wind op since we last saw him, and the tongue-tie is back on for the first time in five starts. I can obviously see him bouncing out in front and going well.
But both of those horses obviously need to bounce back from sub-par efforts last time, and Etalon is just a general [9/2] – he is [11/2] in a place, though – so I can leave this race alone, especially as my final sweep of the copy revealed the 14s about Malystic had disappeared.
By the way, Skelton is 3s for the trainers’ title with one firm, and [11/4] elsewhere, and that looks too big to my eye.
Fitness is key as this time of the Flat season, and I imagine the late market moves on Saturday afternoon will be enlightening on that score (I seem to remember Arrest being a massive drifter for this race last year before finishing seventh).
At least if you fancy the market leaders and form horses, Sunway and Ancient Wisdom, their stables are in decent form.
I won’t waste your time here, as I have no betting interest in this seven-runner John Porter.
The Newbury ground is officially good, good to firm in places, but keep an eye on Friday’s times. A going stick reading of 5.0 suggests it may be slower, but we will see.
It is always amusing when you see the prices rushed out by certain firms on Thursday mornings.
As my old Betfair colleague Dan Barber would say, there are Rick Wallers galore (google him if you must), and we had the sight of the Flutter group (three firms) sticking Whistle Stop Tour in at 10s.
He is now a top-priced 4s.
He has a big chance if you forgive him his run in the Ultima last time, which is easy to do as nothing went right for him after the first – he did get pretty badly hampered – and he could never get competitive, being pulled up 3 out.
He went off 12s for that race (so why he was put in 10s here, I will never know), having previously been in winning form over 3m here in January, so he has a fair claim. This looks his trip.
I’d agree with Plate third Masaccio being the right favourite here at [10/3], though.
The Mullins v Skelton angle sees Loughglynn and Theformismighty lock horns again (they also have at least one apiece in the 1.10pm) and the latter is probably not a bad 20s poke as this first try at 3m could suit this winning pointer.
But it isn’t a race which interests me at the current prices.
The fitness angle is heightened when it comes to 3yo fillies in April, with some of them possibly being prepped for a shot at the 1,000 Guineas.
Mind you, only four of these are rated in the 100s, though the sexier once-raced winners of Bright Times Ahead and British Blue (Nardra is a NR with a bruised foot as at 9.12am on Friday) have not been allotted marks yet.
There is too much guesswork involved here to get stuck in to any significant degree, but I’d love to see Maw Lam, more exposed than most it seems, get off on terms and win this.
I presume they have been working on her seeming aversion to stalls all winter, and she often did wonders to run so well after blowing the start last season.
Actually, she is 33s in a place and I may see if I can get some of that win-only (currently trades in the 40s on Betfair).
Her third in the Queen Mary (totally blew the start) doesn’t leave her with too much to find, and perhaps the 7f trip will suit.
And the stable’s few runners this season have done well, so maybe they are pretty forward.
I flagged up Ooh Betty at 33s, four places, on Tuesday, and she is still available at 22s in a place with those each-way terms.
That still appeals – especially as we lost the 3s ante-post favourite Kargese, among others such as Absurde, at the overnight stage – though I would have liked the ground be good, rather than good to soft, soft in places, as her trainer (having his first runner at Ayr) seems adamant the drier the better for her.
What I wrote about her on Tuesday holds true.
I think they made a mistake holding her up in the Imperial Cup last time, so I’d be tempted to take a more positive view of that run than a 9 3/4 length 11th would immediately suggest.
Her only other disappointment this season came when similarly held up at Newbury.
The three times she has been ridden prominently this term she has run crackers, most obviously when a 3-length third to Take No Chances (third in two Grade 1s since) and subsequent County Hurdle winner Kargese in a Grade 2 at Ascot on good ground.
Basically, I think this mare is better than her rating of 132 would suggest, given the right tactics, and hopefully they will ride her more forcefully here on this track.
And let’s hope the ground is drying out all the time, though even genuine good to soft should be okay.
I fear [7/2] chance Kabral Du Mathan especially but there are a few lurkers.
A revved-up Under Control would be very dangerous off a mark of 134 – I wouldn’t lay the 16s – and I can fully see the case for another horse we haven’t seen since November, Kihavah.
But if you can access that 22s, four places, then Ooh Betty remains the best bet in the race (the 25s was taken on Friday morning).
Similar comments that I made about the Fred Darling apply to the Greenham, and I really don’t have much of note to say here.
Obviously, Rashabar and Al Qudra are the form horses but there are several far less exposed beasts in here – granted, both of those have only raced five times, so that is probably a stupid thing to say – and some have decent reputations.
Saracen seems to be one of those, but the firms that went 25s, 22s and 20s on Thursday obviously hadn’t heard about that and the once-raced Curragh winner is now best at 12s.
That wouldn’t have taken much money to make that dent in the often Phoney War of 48-hour betting, though.
I won’t be having a bet.
We are down to 9 runners here, so some firms who offered four places may reduce to three (11 is the cut-off point for many).
This 12-runner mares’ 3m handicap hurdle looks a very trappy race to my eyes.
Well, I say 12, but Musique De Fee finished a good second at Newton Abbot on Thursday, so I wouldn’t be certain she’d run. It’s a long way in a box from there to Ayr after a run.
She is now a non-runner as at 2.01pm on Friday, and Disco Annie followed suit at 8.09am on Saturday morning, and Ottizzini at 8.51am.
But the general [13/2] about Rockola Vogue – the 7s was taken on Friday morning – probably appeals most.
She has both a consistent and progressive profile and didn’t even get put up a pound for winning at Musselburgh last month. Granted the ½-length runner-up was 12lb out of the handicap (the third was also wrong at the weights), but it is not often you see that.
The question mark is the 3m trip, but she is a strong stayer at 2m4f – she did well to win last time from off the pace – so this is well worth trying.
She is the bet in the race if you want one, and there is some 7s in a place.
One of the hardest things to do when tipping on Friday for Saturday is ignoring the Thursday prices.
Concentrate on where the price is going, not where it has been.
Now, this may seem a touch hypocritical, as, hands up, I managed to get a bit on at the fleeting 25s and 20s early doors on Thursday, but Classic underlines the punting dilemma now he is 12s and 11s, and a general 10s.
But, if I didn’t know he was double the price 24 hours earlier, I’d genuinely think he was a decent bet at 12s and 11s each way, four places.
Now, I obviously have no idea how straight he is and the fact that he was 10th of 11 in the Greenham first time out in 2023 and last of nine on his reappearance in 2024 is no positive.
But hopefully he has been an easier horse to train this spring since being gelded in October, and I’m sure I have read somewhere that he has been away for a racecourse gallop prior to this, not that I am sure that means too much (I imagine plenty will have done similarly).
But Classic starts the season as a well handicapped horse, some 4lb lower then when beaten a neck by Two Tempting at Sandown last June (he is 8lb better off with the winner here) and that gelding operation may have straightened him out.
I like the booking of James Doyle (regular pilot Pat Dobbs rides stable/ownermate Son), as he has a very good 22 per cent strike-rate for a stable that is numbers-driven, and a prominent ride from stall three is on the cards here.
He can be ridden from off the pace but that would make no sense.
The Hannon yard are going okay too, and the horse has a lot of good runs at this track to his name, off higher marks, albeit on the straight course.
Classic is handicapped to win, and hopefully he is straight enough here to take advantage of his mark (it’s a very low-stakes weekend for me).
If this was a run-of-the-mill midweek handicap, I probably wouldn’t give this race a second look, but it is the Scottish National, so you probably have to show willing.
It is a really tough one, though.
Only six of the 23 have tried the 4m trip before and, as someone pointed out on Thursday on X, 18 of them are wearing headgear (and one of the five that aren’t include Mr Incredible!)
A rogues’ gallery perhaps.
I won’t be having a serious bet on the race, but I liked Olympic Man most of the Mullins’ sextet (the problem there is that he is 9s now though, having been 14s in a place early on Thursday), closely followed by Klarc Kent, who now appeals more at the current prices.
The latter is 2lb out of the handicap but he is still 8lb lower than a 6 1/4-length fourth to stablemate Macdermott in this race last year and he ran well enough when eighth in the National Hunt handicap at Cheltenham last time.
He wore first-time cheekpieces there (which are retained here) and Jonathan Burke, who performed miracles to guide Minella Cocooner into seventh for the stable in the National after his saddle slipped going to the first, takes the ride.
Like Olympic Man, all the fancier prices about him have gone – he was 66s in a place on Tuesday and 33s and 28s on Thursday – but I think the 22s, five places, is still okay.
The 20s, six places, is more attainable to most punters though (available in five places), so that would be my betting call.
In an illiquid market, Henry’s Friend trades at 20s+ on Betfair win only (he ranges from 11 to 14s fixed odds) and he is another to have run well enough at Cheltenham, in his case an eighth in the Ultima.
He couldn’t get on the front end there after a tardy start (another victim of those starts perhaps), but there isn’t a ton of pace on here, and he had previously won from the front when beating Hyland over 3m2f at Newbury.
Who knows if he will stay – he was pulled up in the National Hunt Chase last year but he was a staying-on fifth in the Coral Gold Cup over 3m2f – but he could well give you a good spin if getting on the front end. The form of the yard isn’t great, though.
That are my lukewarm two against the field.
Classic at [12/1] or [11/1] each way, four places, in 3.12pm at Newbury. The general 10s is okay too.
Ayr and Newbury have issued going stick updates on Thursday morning – and the latter have provided more details, such as a soil moisture average – but neither have provided details of how much they have been watering.
According to the BHA site, Newbury have watered on Friday 4th, Monday 7th, Tuesday 8th and today (Thursday 10th), as per the Watering History section.
No amounts have been given.
Not good enough, especially as their stick reading has gone from 6.1 on Monday to 5.1 on Thursday (it was 5.7 on Wednesday), in the middle of a hot, dry spell for this time of the year (a possible red flag, along the lines of that infamous Uttoxeter Midlands National meeting).
The official going is good, good to firm in places.
They will water again after racing on Friday, if required.
Ayr stages what could be a vital two-day meeting in terms of the trainers’ title, but does anyone know how/what the ground will ride like on Friday?
And maybe Newbury may not be so rapid, it seems, to judge from that 5.1 stick reading (and their soil moisture reading went from 40 per cent on Monday to 50 per cent on Thursday).
In fact, Friday’s going stick update now has Newbury at 5.0 after more watering on Friday morning.
Of course, it will dry out before racing on Friday (if they don’t go in again tonight/tomorrow morning) but we can only deal in the here and now.
Rightly or wrongly, plenty are sceptical of stick readings, which is why the additional watering information is vital and necessary.
It is officially good to soft (“Hurdle Track Softer In Back Straight”) at Ayr – that must have taken some watering welly in this weather – but the information on the BHA site (uploaded by the course and not the regulator) is a touch shambolic.
The “Watering History” section there doesn’t even tally with that of the “Going History”.
The former (which you would think would house all the watering details) indicates they haven’t watered since April 4th, but the latter says they have been watering daily (no amounts given) since putting 8mm on last Friday, April 4th.
In fact, on the BHA home page it says: “Watering:8mm Being Applied Full Circuit”
Which is presumably out of date since last Friday.
If anyone can give me one good reason why both courses – and plenty of others – can’t or won’t provide detailed watering information, then I am all ears.
Most accept that watering is necessary in times like this, as do I – so let’s be clear there, especially for multi-day meetings, which make a clerk’s job all the harder and even less enviable (if that was possible?) – but this veil of secrecy stinks.
Friday morning update: Well done to Ayr for saying they have put 88mm on track in last 10 days in their Friday morning update.
Since this column first went live, I have had some very interesting private feedback on why some clerks and courses are possibly not divulging watering information.
This is just one example of said responses.
Make of it what you will.
It may not be accurate, but it is the only plausible explanation I have been given.
And it rings true.
I also trust the (well-informed) person who sent it on, in good faith.
“The no-watering info at some courses is due to them not wanting to tell the Environment Agency how much they are putting on”.
Which may be why the Racing Post, and the racing channels, regularly fail to get an answer as to the most of obvious questions.
If they asked those, that is…..(and I appreciate they are in an awkward situation, as possibly are the tracks).
Good. good to firm in places
Soil moisture average = 50%
Going Stick: 5.2 at 6am Saturday
Rails: We will have a fresh running line around the 7f & 5f bends, with a cut away into the straight.
Stalls:1m2f & 2m110y = inside Remainder = centre (Friday)
Saturday morning update: We lost 2.5mm in evapotranspiration (ET) yesterday. Forecast: Dry, sunny spells and then cloudy later. Moderate breeze. 19/20C.
BHA watering site details in full
On Sat, 12 Apr 7:33am the watering status was Watered – Watered after racing (5mm) on everything except the back straight.
On Fri, 11 Apr 7:17am the watering status was Watered
On Thu, 10 Apr 7:52am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective watering to maintain. Will selective water as required after racing Friday.
On Tue, 08 Apr 9:23am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – aiming to maintain Good, Good to Firm in places.
On Mon, 07 Apr 7:46am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Aiming for Good, Good to Firm in places.
On Fri, 04 Apr 8:52am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Selective – watering to maintain.
Going & Live Weather Data: newburyracecourse.co.uk/going/
Weather: Dry and sunny, 18-19 degrees
Good to Soft, good in places
Going Stick: 6.4 Chase, 6.0 Hurdles as at 7.15am Saturday
Rails: All Rails Inner Most Line
Saturday morning update: Sunny.0mm Past 24hrs Sat: Sunny, High 18c Low 6c
Weather: Dry and sunny 17 degrees
Watering – 88mm Has Been Applied Last Ten Days as of Friday morning, Watered overnight – no amounts given.
3.12pm Newbury: Zain Blue, Dolce Courage, Superposition, Desperate Dan
Peter Niven cheekpieces 0-19 (since 2016) – Malystic 1.10pm Ayr
Willie Mullins cheekpieces 9-51 (2016) – Spanish Harlem, 3.35pm Ayr
Jonjo and AJ O’Neill cheekpieces 0-8 (2024) – Hasthing, 3.35pm Ayr
Jonjo 14-96 (2016)
Andrew Balding hood 14-216 (2010) – Formal, 2pm Newbury
1.10pm Ayr: Traprain Law (prom), Etalon?, Western Diego?, Asta La Pasta (due to run on Friday as well)
1.25pm Newbury: Ancient Wisdom, Bellum Justum?, Dallas Star, Tabletalk (prom), Davina Grace (prom)
1.43pm Ayr: Loughglynn, Whistle Stop Tour (prom), Pic Roc, Thisformismighty?, Ideal des Bordes (prom),
2pm Newbury: California Dreamer, Duty First, Heavens Gate
2.15pm Ayr: Ethical Diamond?, Kihavah?, Bunting, Karafon (prom), Ooh Betty (prom – hopefully anyway), Valgrand, Welsh Charger
2.35pm Newbury: Al Qudra, Chancellor, Noble Champion (prom)
2.55pm Ayr: Ottizzini, The Lord Maid, Pinot Rouge?, Armed And Fabulous (prom), Foxy’s Fancy (prom), Musique De Fee (finished second on Thursday), My Lady Elektra
3.12pm Newbury: Son?, Two Tempting (prom), James McHenry (prom), Ebt’s Guard (prom), Draon Leader (prom), Urban Lion (prom), Classic?
3.35pm Ayr: Henry’s Friend, Olympic Man (prom), Macdermott, Rock My Way (prom), Flash de Touzaine (prom), The Kniphand (prom), Grozni (prom), Klarc Kent (prom), Magna Sam (prom)
Good: Peter Niven, Willie Mullins, Joe Tizzard, Adrian Keatley, Paul Nicholls, Ruth Jefferson, Susan Corbett, Killahena and McPherson, Toby Lawes (very small sample), James Owen, Charlie Appleby (very good), Ralph Beckett, David Menuisier, Ollie Sangster, Jack Channon, Raphael Freire (very good), Ed Walker, Rebecca Menzies, Jonathan Portman, Dylan Cunha, Darryll Holland (very good), Charles Hills, Dan Skelton (nearing good again anyway, after Friday)
Fair: Greenall and Guerriero (28-1 winner on Thursday), Gavin Cromwell, Lucinda Russell (borderline moderate), Alan King (borderline moderate), Nicky Henderson, Ewan Whillans, Fergal O’Brien, Tom Lacey, Sandy Thomson (no winners). Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Andrew Balding, Adrian Murray. Tom Clover, Eve Johnson Houghton, Richard Hannon, Archie Watson, Karl Burke (borderline good, and 15-2 winner on Thursday), Adrian Nicholls, William Haggas (for him, anyway), Harry Eustace, John and Thady Gosden, Parkinson and Smith (borderline good), David O’Meara, Joseph O’Brien, Jamie Osborne, Ed Bethell, Charlie Johnston, Aidan O’Brien, Clive Cox, Jack Jones (7-4 winner on Thursday), Nicky Richards (stopped the rot with a 11-1 winner on Friday)
Moderate: Cian Collins, Stuart Crawford, Richard Spencer (difficult to gauge but probably moderate), Ben Pauling (though the last two have gone okay)
Don’t know: Ann Hamilton, Hughie Morrison, Ben Clarke (very few runners but probably good), Alastair Ralph, Sam Thomas. Liz Doyle, Faye Bramley, David Bridgwater, Brian Meehan, Georgina Nicholls, Nick Alexander (though last runner was a 6-5 winner), Muir and Grassick
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