By Tony Calvin - 24 July 2025
It’s a Group 1 weekend , with a £1.5m showpiece, but it’s an underwhelming punting series of eight ITV races, to be perfectly honest.
As the prices stand at 8.10am, anyway.
If you disagree, then all well and good – and field sizes are decent in the main, with some top talent on show – but very little floats my betting boat on Saturday.
The terrestrial action starts with the fillies’ 6f Group 3 and Dance To The Music initially worked her way to clear outright favouritism from earlier in the week (when she was a 4s chance) and she was best at [11/4] when coughing ruled her out of this at 10.51am on Friday.
Whether or not her Newmarket length defeat of Eskimo Pie (also in here, and the only maiden in the line-up) entitled her to be so short in here I had my doubts, but she has gone now.
Midnight Tango finished a 4-length fourth in her race, and she has since gone on to win her maiden and finish a close second in Listed company. She is now a 5s chance, in a tight top of the market which also includes Flowerhead, Staya and Fitzella.
Any of those four could go off as favourite.
There is no stand-out in here, formwise, and I was drawn most to the [22/1] outsider of the field, Daneh Of Dandy (now 25s).
The form of her Ripon success, in a modest time, needs massively improving on here, but visually it was quite a taking performance – the penny was dropping late on, on what can be a very tricky track for inexperienced horses – and there is another interesting aspect to her being raised significantly in class here.
That was the Ripon maiden James Tate won with Under The Stars in 2019, and that filly’s next assignment was this Group 3, which she won at [25/1].
Maybe that is a false avenue into her chances here, but she is 22s, four places, with one firm and that is possibly the most attractive bet knocking around.
She is 20s, four places, with another pair of books and [30.0] win-only on Betfair, where I have literally had £15 quid on her.
Actually, she has just drifted out 25s. That’s a bit more like it (22s, four places, best now), but it’s a guess-up and as lukewarm as you like.
I can’t access any of the four places-action myself, too.
A full field of 22 for the 6f Sky Bet Dash – Art Power was balloted out, so make sure you get your ante-post money back on that one – and I am sure this race will tempt plenty of punters in, with [5/1] the field and up to six places on offer for each-way punters.
I rarely have a strong betting opinion in these massive-field sprint handicaps (where they can split into three groups or more) but I can see why the money (well why he has shortened is probably more accurate) has come for 6s chance Jubilee Walk, available at 14s on Tuesday.
The lightly-raced 4yo was rated 97 after winning over 5f here in May last year but he can race off 92 here (he was kindly dropped for three runs in Bahrain, either side of the New Year) and he shaped well off that mark at Chester last time in late June.
That was his first start since January 30th, and also his first since a wind op and wearing an initial tongue-tie, and he finished off his race very well over 6f there.
That looked a good tee-up job for this big pot and, if the draw in five is no hardship, then he should give his supporters a good run for their money here, albeit a quick one.
But 6s is now clearly no gimme in this full field, and I wouldn’t dream of backing him at the current price.
Of the others, I thought Caburn was half-interesting enough at a current [32.0] on Betfair (added this in at 9.15am).
His falling mark of 94 is exploitable on his Gimcrack form here and a switch of stable may rekindle the fire, plus the step back in trip is a plus.
I’ve chucked a score at him.
Brooklyn Nine Nine is a NR as at 8.16am (off colour), followed up Jungle Drums and Toyotomi (both going)
Robert Redford-lookalike Ralph Beckett had four in here at the five-day stage, but he had indicated three of those would be going to Goodwood next week, and he relies on Chantilly Lace.
As a result, I flagged that this filly was probably the overpriced one in this on Tuesday (though I stressed that wasn’t a betting opinion and I certainly didn’t get involved myself) and the 6s has become [3/1].
I’d have her as the clear favourite though as the 3yo, getting 8lb from her elders, has the best form in the race courtesy of her Guineas and Coronation Stakes fifths, and I can see her handling this lesser opposition.
I wouldn’t be inclined to take her on, and, ergo, I guess [3/1] is a fair price.
If she hits 4s win-only on the exchange (maybe unrealistic but you never know), I’ll chime in accordingly.
11/2 chance Pina Sonata and Sunfall are NRs, so there will be Rule 4s.
Everything about this 1m2f+ Group 2 tells me that Almaqam is underpriced at a general [11/10], though he is one horse that has actually been pushed out in the last 24 hours.
Unfortunately, everything about this 1m2f+ Group 2 also tells me he will probably win, regardless.
The official ratings don’t give him much in hand of the likes of Royal Champion (only 2lb of him in fact, as the second-best horse in here) and the trio of 3yos gets 9lb, including Green Impact, coming here instead of the King George, and Derby fifth Stanhope Gardens (the drop in trip will suit both of those).
But Almaqam has the bit of dig he needs to shine and a reproduction of his Brigadier Gerard defeat of Ombudsman (albeit the reappearance version of the runner-up) probably sees him win this.
Would I bet on it at [11/10]?
No. And that is all that matters.
Obviously, we have only seven runners, so the obvious each-way plays on Stanhope Gardens at 4s or Green Impact at 9s, aren’t really an option, unfortunately.
And it certainly isn’t now as they have shortened to [11/4] and 8s….so pass, again.
No firms have put their head about the parapet with three places yet, but someone may yet break ranks, I guess..
This 150k handicap did well to get 22 runners in end (only four dropped out from the five-day stage, for a race that could house 29) and not a lot has changed in the betting from Tuesday, with Aalto tops at [11/2], and Akkadian Thunder at [7/1].
Aalto is 5lb well-in and is preferred of that pair (Classic is also due to go up 2lb in future handicaps) and I think the [11/2] in a place about him is pretty fair, but Lord Bertie appeals a touch more.
Well, he did.
He was 50s and 40s on Tuesday though, and the 25s and 22s was taken on Thursday.
He is now a general 20s, so the way I have played it so far he is to back him small win-only on Betfair at 25+ to very small sums.
I’ll try to back him each way if and when he drifts back out but 20s is borderline no good for me (bizarrely he as short as 12s).
And that 20s has just been taken anyway, ffs. Nothing doing.
I think the stats show us that Jamie Spencer’s prowess on the straight track at Ascot is something of a thing of the past (and this may be the usual too-late story), but that doesn’t mean he can’t shine on any given day and he gets on the hold-up horse (though he has actually made all before) for the first time and we are going to see the archetypal late Spencer weave on the near rail from trap 21 of 22.
He is actually due to go down 2lb in future handicaps but that doesn’t bother me as the handicapper should have left him alone for his last of 10 at Doncaster last Saturday, as his hood (left off here) came loose around halfway and must have been a massive distraction.
Maybe this course winner could have done with more ease here, as he has officially not raced on anything quicker than good, but Timeform called it good to firm when he was a good fifth to Akkadian Thunder and Billyjoh at Donny two starts ago and you can mark up that run a touch, as he came from a long way off the pace.
He may be 2lb wrong in this early-closer off 90, but he is only 1lb higher than when winning here in September last year, and this could be a very good set-up for him.
Maybe they will pull him out if they deem the ground too quick, but that is out of our control.
Let’s cut to the chase here.
If the race has a charity aspect to it (I am not sure), then all well and good.
But if anyone is seriously suggesting a 0-80 5f sprint handicap, with all the horses ridden by professional jumps’ jockeys, is worthy of a bet, then we will beg to differ and leave it there.
It is a point and shoot job though, so maybe look for a jockey who will be run away with by a habitual free-goer who needs minimal assistance from the saddle – Night On Earth made all under Charlie Todd last year – if you really must have a punt.
Soul Seeker and Birkenhead won this race in the three runnings from 2021-23 (the former is a dual winner) and rock up again, and I imagine Copper Knight is a kindly, straightforward conveyance too, but this is really your call.
It is 7s the field, unsurprisingly.
Moon Flight and Rosenpur are NRs.
The case I made for Cosi Bello, each way, at 16s on Tuesday (four places) clearly stands but he is now a top-priced [13/2] now and the race held up numbers-wise far better than I was hoping and expecting.
We only lost four of the 21 at the overnight stage.
I wouldn’t even consider backing him at [13/2] now – that draw in two bothers me too, given the stick readings below, for all he has pace beside him – and I suspect he will drift back out (though, as I always say, you simply can’t second-guess the market these days), so here is the midweek argument for him.
He is clearly open to a lot of improvement after three starts, the first two of which saw him successful at Chelmsford and Kempton (recorded a decent time when winning a novice under a 7lb penalty at the latter track).
Fellowes has had a season to forget so far but he had his first 2025 winner on turf at Epsom last week (a pretty staggering stat) and Cosi Bello’s narrow second at Chester last time has worked out well enough so far to suggest he can be competitive here off a 2lb higher mark.
He does have his stamina to prove (and his trainer thinks he won’t stay further than this mile), but there is plenty in his pedigree to suggest he has a fair chance of seeing this out well enough.
Like I said though, this race is unfortunately a lot deeper and tougher than I was expecting.
Hunt Cup runner-up Bullet Point is the rightful favourite at 4s (mind you Teroomm has joined him at the top of the market in most lists overnight, for what will have been relative pennies) but I originally wrote in my Friday draft that if you wanted a fresh interest then Mythical Guest at the general 25s, five places (20s, six places) was an each-way alternative.
But, bizarrely, this exposed handicapper is now only 14s in two places (set to disappear) and 12s, 11s and 10s, which seems an over-reaction, for all I can fully see him hitting the board with the extra places.
I could not recommend backing him as it stands, so he is another about whom I will be monitoring the market when the action gets more serious.
He has placed form with the likes of Bullet Point, My Cloud and Royal Velvet this season – all of those have obviously improved greatly since – he has slipped to his lowest mark since winning at Newmarket in May 2024 and quick ground and 1m are his bag, and his two efforts at this track were solid
Winning may be beyond him, but the place part of that bet looks fair to me.
I quite like his draw in 15 and everyone is raving about 5lb claimer Warren Fentiman, who gets on board the horse for the first time. He is 10 per cent this season but he has banged in seven recent winners, so maybe he is great value for the five.
But he is now just a top-priced 11s as at 8.12am, and that is in one place.
I saw someone call this an “epic” renewal earlier in the week, but you can take that with a pinch of salt as the person who wrote that article (if it wasn’t ghosted) is probably fronting Ascot’s Sky Sports Racing coverage today.
That may be a touch harsh (on the race and presenter) as we have horses rated 126, 125 and 123 in this five-runner race, with the other pair consisting of a Group 1 scorer and a Classic winner who has been reduced to making the running, so it has enviable depth.
Very harsh perhaps – indeed Ascot’s Head Of Corporate and Industry Affairs Will Aitkenhead tweeted this morning that “three of the world’s top 15 racehorses (are) in the line up” – but this race does not get me jiggy, all the same.
Of course, I’ll be an interested viewer but it’s all about the betting for me, and I make no apologies for that.
Maybe, it is just sad to see a £1.5m race with so much history and prestige, unsponsored, and attracting just five runners, with the aforementioned pacemaker Continuous earning 40k for doing the donkey work for stablemate Jan Brueghel.
These people who advocate throwing unnecessary money at the top end (journalists among them) to uber-rich owners in the main – I am sure the billionaire organisations of Coolmore, Juddmonte, Aga Khan and Godolphin will welcome the pocket money here, though – need to take a long hard look in the mirror, while the base of this sport feasts on daily 3k scraps and trainers struggle to even break even.
I get that premier talent needs to be rewarded, and foreign runners need to be attracted to bolster our dwindling high-end numbers, but we clearly need a more even distribution of funds (there is a 60k ITV handicap on this card, and another race worth just 25k).
The sport needs a stronger, viable base for a multitude of reasons.
I find it vaguely offensive that next year’s race will be worth £2m, unless all other races at Ascot in 2026 are upgraded accordingly.
Anyway, back to the race.
Aidan O’Brien surprisingly throws cheekpieces on Jan Brueghel after he saw off Calandagan in the Coronation Stakes, but I don’t see how anyone can have a betting opinion on those two at the prices, with the books currently [21/10] and [5/4] best about the pair respectively.
Both of those prices are with AKBets, as it stands.
The headgear decision with Jan Brueghel is a curious one, for all he looked decidedly rogue on his reappearance, and the fact that the stable have never had a winner in first-time cheekpieces in Group 1 contests in the last 16 years (if the stats boys are to be believed) is a sobering statistic.
I’d favour Calandagan out of the top two – though he is shortening all the time – but, for me, any betting decision on this race now has to fall between Kalpana and Rebel’s Romance at [6/1] the pair.
I’d rather dutch that pair myself then, as course winner Kalpana will surely be suited by stepping back up to 1m4f and you know what you are getting with Rebel’s Romance – and he probably ran as well as he has ever done when beating subsequent wide-margin Curragh Cup winner Al Riffa in the Hardwicke here last time – but that’s a hollow assessment, as I will be almost certainly be keeping my hands in my pockets.
Part of me hopes that the 2023 Leger winner, 100s poke, Continuous nicks this from the front, as the poor boy has been badly done to since those Classic-winning days.
GOING: Good (Good to Firm in places)
Going Stick: Stands side: 7.9, Centre: 8.3, Farside: 7.8, Round Course: 6.8. Soil moisture: 30%. (8am Saturday)
Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight to 6.30am Saturday. 9mm rain recorded over the past 7 days to Saturday . Today, Saturday is forecast to be generally dry, an afternoon shower is possible. For live weather station and Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather: Dry and sunny, possibly a light shower
Rails: The false rail on the Round Course in n place on Friday from the 1M 4F start to the Home bend has been removed for Saturday providing fresh ground on the Round course for King George Day.
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside
Going: Good, good to soft in places
Going stick: 6.1, Saturday 8.30am
Going stick readings: 6.1 overall. Home Straight: Far Side – 5.5 Centre – 5.7; Stands Side – 5.6
Moisture meter reading – 32% Wind speed and direction: WSW (across, half behind) 6mph gusting to 13mph at first race time.
Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight and a dry, cloudy Saturday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.2mm in light drizzle Thursday morning making 55.8mm in the last 8 days. Met Office forecast: Saturday – cloudy with chance of a light shower late morning, clearing in afternoon, 22 degrees Live links to our weather station and the Met Office are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk by clicking for the full going report on the home page.
Weather: Possible light showers 10am-3pm
Rails: 3m out from innermost from 9f to entrance to Home Straight
Stalls: 5f, 5f 89yds, 6f and 1m 4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail
2pm York: Art Power
George Scott cheekpieces 7-75 ; City House, 3pm Ascot
George Boughey blinkers 5-43; Oliver Show, 3pm Ascot (horse won in a first-time tongue-tie, and then in first-time cheekpieces) – now a NR at 12.29pm (not eaten up)
Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces 10-93; Jan Brueghel, 4.10pm Ascot
However, AOB is winless with this option in Group 1s in the last 16 years – 0-17). 0-6 in Group 2 and 1-9 in Group 3s (Scandinavia won Bahrain Trophy in them by small matter of 8 1/2 lengths earlier this month…)
1.40pm Ascot (limited evidence): Amberia (drawn 9) , Arugam Bay (4), Fitzella (5) (favourite Dance To The Music out at 10.51am Friday – coughing)
2pm York: Jordan Electrics (14), Alzahir (prom – 6), Elmonjed (prom – 10), Sophia’s Starlight 16), Sergeant Wilko (22), Aleezdancer (2), Orne (9) – Brooklyn Nine Nine is a NR as at 8.16am (off colour), followed up Jungle Drums and Toyotomi (both going)
2.20pm Ascot: American Gal (prom – 3), Bermuda Longtail (9) – Sunfall is a NR as at 7.43am (bad scope), followed by Pina Sonata at 8.53am (going)
2.40pm York: Almaqam (6), Certain Lad (2), Ecureuil Secret (7), Royal Champion (prom – 3), Green Impact (1)
3pm Ascot: Zoum Zoum (prom – 19), Northern Express (prom – 17), Golden Mind (prom – 12), Yorkshire, (14) Noble Truth (18), Qazaq (9), Classic (11)
3.20pm York: Copper Knight (10), Bona Fortuna (12), American Bay (14), Keldeo (5), Arnhem (2), Match Play (20), Birkenhead (9), Soul Seeker (17), Mersea (prom – 16) (Rosenpur a NR as at 11.06am on Thursday as “declared in error” – the fact that he was drawn in stall two in a 10-runner 5f handicap at Chester on Saturday clearly had no bearing on that….); Moon Flight is also a NR
3.35pm Ascot: Bullet Point (9) Whitcombe Rockstar (prom – 11), Sisyphean (1), Teroomm (7), Hawksbill (3), Competizione (16)
4.10pm Ascot: Continuous (3), Rebel’s Romance (1), Kalpana (prom – 5)
Good (plenty are in seriously cracking form): Charlie Appleby (very good), Jane Chapple-Hyam (very good), Hugo Palmer (very good – 14-1 winner on Thursday followed by 11-1 and 6-5 scorers on Friday), F-H Graffard, Aidan O’Brien (goodish for him), William Haggas (very good), David O’Meara, John and Thady Gosden, Owen Burrows (very good – and another 14-1 winner on Thursday), Roger Varian, Jamie Osborne (very good and another 6-1 winner on Thursday), George Margarson, Jim Goldie (very good), Julie Camacho (another 3-1 winner on Thursday), Seb Spencer, Jessica Macey (small sample), Ben Haslam, Philip Kirby, Andrew Balding (three Thursday winners)
Fair: David Loughnane (borderline good), Richard Hughes, James Tate, Charlie Clover (no winners though), Ed Walker, Jack Channon, George Scott, Jessie Harrington. W McCreery, James Fanshawe, Ralph Beckett (double on Friday), Michael Dods, Ed Bethell, John McConnell, Ian Williams, Richard Spencer (probably good for him), Richard Hannon. Kevin Ryan, Clive Cox (winner on Friday night), Charlie Fellowes, Tim Easterby, Karl Burke, Grant Tuer, James Ferguson, Ruth Carr, Paul Midgley, Ed De Giles, Rebecca Menzies, Declan Carroll (edging good), Charles Hills, George Boughey, Jennie Candlish, Adrian Keatley, Ivan Furtado (winner on Friday), Mick Appleby (two needed winners this week at 9-1 and 7-2 in last 24 hours or so)
Moderate: Richard Fahey, Craig Lidster (small sample), Ollie Pears
Not sure: Eddie and Patrick Harty, Keiran Burke, Robert Eddery, Geoff Oldroyd, Antony Brittain, Liam Bailey (11-1 winner on Friday gives us a better clue, though…), Tom Tate
1.15pm Ascot – 11/2 Catchintsavo set to lead again All change here. Sixteen became six…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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