By Tony Calvin - 20 February 2025
Kempton probably got away lightly with just 10mm overnight – I am 12 miles away and it didn’t stop drizzling from around late afternoon to the early hours (though drizzling is probably the key word there) – and the going is now good to soft, good in places.
But they have had another 2mm this morning and the updated going stick readings suggest the 12mm has made a fair old difference.
The Saturday morning going stick readings are now 5.3 on chase course and 5.1 over hurdles – they were 7.4 and 7.2 respectively at 10.30am on Friday.
Newcastle was called as good to soft at 6.59am after a dry night, but bizarrely was switched back to good to soft, soft in places, at 7.48am.
Curious.
They have a dry day in store.
It is a very low-key betting weekend – and I’ll be watching the Six Nations and recording the racing – and the morning markets are pretty dead/static.
As I have said before, the Pricewise price tables are out of date as soon as they are put on the page on Friday afternoon, so they are not accurate as regards overnight prices.
So the main movers outlined below started to shift on Friday afternoon.
Anyway, despite the rain, Rubaud has been trimmed into [11/8], having been [13/8] in a place on Friday morning and a general [6/4].
The [5/2] Imperial Saint has disappeared, and he is now [9/4].
Very little to report here.
Choosethenews has shortened from 11s in places into a strong [7/1], and Ilikedwayurthinkin has been cut from 14s into 9s (the latter is very weak on the exchange at 12.0, so expect him to ease a touch).
Lord Roco was a general 22s and 20s on Friday morning (25s in a place), and he is now best at 16s.
Outsider Bursinel is a non-runner (going), so we are down to five.
Another withdrawal would mean win-only betting.
Nothing much has changed in this market either – sorry for repeating myself – with Mondo Man [8/13] in places.
Mambonumberfive is being nibbled, with the 20s in a place taken at 8.11am.
He is now 18s in three spots.
Mondammej is a non-runner, bringing the field down to 11.
Marshman is currently winning the battle for favouritism over Diligent Harry –- just, with [5/2] playing [11/4] – but Valiant Force, from a stable in great form (see below in the 2.40pm Southwell race assessment), has been nibbled at. His price ranges from [15/4] to 5s, having been available at [13/2] in a place.
That 5s is available in just one spot, though.
Again, barely a ripple of interest in this market.
Zero has changed, though there are a few nibbles coming in for Celtic Dino (who could have done without the rain) at [9/2].
Nothing much happening here but Persica is weak, and he has drifted to [13/2]. He was best at [7/2] in the ante-post market earlier in the week, when there were two more runners in the race.
Champagne Prince was [13/2] in a place on Friday and he is into 5s.
Katate Dori and Heltenham are the two for whatever money is doing the rounds. But, as we know, it would have taken very little moolah to change their odds so far.
The Phoney War etc etc.
The former is now best at 7s, having been 10s in a place yesterday (he was nibbled at through the afternoon), and Heltenham is 9s. It doesn’t look like those prices are in any immediate danger of shortening further.
The latter was available at 14s on Friday morning (and a touch bigger on Thursday), and his price was chipped away all through yesterday.
***************
A big no-show here as the ante-post favourite Jingko Blue was not confirmed for the race, having unseated his rider at the third at Ascot last Saturday.
Rubaud has now been installed as the [13/8] favourite for this in his absence and that looks fair enough after he showed a lot more in the chasing department when chasing home L’Eau du Sud in the Kingmaker last time.
Getting 5lb from the top three, he has at least that amount in hand of this field (the similarly unpenalized Imperial Saint leading the way there), and some of his better hurdling form has been around here, but the obvious question he will have to answer is his stamina for an extended 2m4f, especially with possibly more rain to come.
He has never raced beyond 2m1f before but he won over 1m7f on the Flat in France and he is a full brother to a 2m6f winner of Willie Mullins’, so it is obviously well worth a shot when confronted with over 42 bags to the winner.
All of his five rivals are proven at the trip, so common sense – even if sense if not often common when it comes to how the planned pace is played out in races – dictates they will be collectively looking to get the favourite at it from an early stage (see pace map below).
But, then again, Rubaud may well try to dictate his own fate from the front.
I’d probably side with Imperial Saint at [5/2] over [13/8] Rubaud – that [13/8] is in just one place and probably won’t last – as I much prefer strong handicap lines over small-field novices’ form, and his third to Moon D’Orange at Cheltenham last time looks solid as a rock.
In fact, the general [5/2] each way, two places, is probably a fair betting play.
A full field of 18 for the Eider Chase, with only four declining to confirm: Iron Bridge, Undersupervision, Jacks Parrot and Gold Clermont (the latter two are due to run at Exeter on Friday).
I fully respect the chances of O’Connell at [11/2} and it doesn’t take a genius to see him devouring this marathon trip.
I’ve backed him to ensure I don’t lose on the race if he wins – and I know there are potential negatives about him as regards the rise in the handicap and his form left-handed, while the stamina is not proven – but the more I looked at Ilikedwayurthinkin on Tuesday the more I warmed to his chances.
He was 16s then, and he is 14s now, in a full field of 18 (no horses balloted out), but that is still plenty big enough to get me punting (12s with the extra place is okay).
The 14s, five places, is available in two spots, so that’s an acceptable recommendation, I think (by the way the firm offering seven places are not offering any bold type anywhere on Oddschecker, so you are paying a big premium for those – my selection is just 8s there).
Now, the form of the Ben Haslam yard is a doubt of sorts – he hasn’t had a winner over jumps since November, not that he has had many runners, and he was actually 10 from 22 on the Flat in December and January – but that doesn’t deter me here.
He is the oldest horse in the race as an 11yo (alongside History Of Fashion) but I thought he had a great profile for this test nonetheless, as a 3m6f winner here in November, and he shaped well enough over 3m at Ayr after a break last time.
You’d hope that Ayr run will have been a planned springboard for this prize.
It is important to highlight the negatives as well as the positives, though (it is essential, in fact).
As well as his age and the recent yard win haulage over jumps, it must be said the form of his success in November has worked out pretty gash (and he is 8lb higher, too), plus the fact that making all in this much bigger field will not be easy (plenty in here could bustle him up).
But a prominent sit will be fine (he used to be held up when having big-field form in the past over hurdles, off much higher marks too – he runs off 129 here and he was 10lb higher in Ireland at his peak), and that 14s, five places, is surely a decent bet here.
Another potential negative to consider would be more rain, but he handles plenty well enough (Timeform having him winning on heavy, in fact).
I also mentioned the If Not For Dylan formline here on Tuesday, so I can fully see the each-way cases for Choosethenews and Lord Roco at 11s and 25s (only available in one place) here, too.
Lord Roco has been running well without headgear but the cheekpieces return here for the first time in a while (his best efforts have come in them, albeit back in 2022) and that may be a fair pointer.
Now, this is a mile further than he has ever travelled before, so there is a massive guess element to this, but I can certainly see him going well on a track where he has course form figures of 132.
His record with pieces on are 154222PP and, while I know very little about his 5lb claimer, his stats are okay.
If only the 25s had been more readily available (and even that won’t last).
Good look wherever you veer in this but I’m off to find someone with an account with the firm still offering that tempting 25s…(no luck so far).
He was briefly available at 33s with one mob (two firms) early on Thursday, but is now a general 20s, which I had to settle for.
No Lulamba or Palladium, and I swear I saw Mondo Man get taken out of the race just before 9.30am, only to be put back in seconds later.
The fixed-odds markets told the story here on Wednesday, with Mondo Man cut into [8/11] and a general [8/13] by the firms who were still betting on it at this time.
He was [9/4] on Tuesday morning.
Go figure. Someone knew.
As I said in my ante-post column on Tuesday, the bookmakers shouldn’t have priced this up in the first place.
They were inviting trouble (as much for their clientele themselves, as regards future betting), and the punters “in the know” have probably had their accounts well and truly marked now, too.
Lose-lose.
Anyway, I suppose the 111-rated Flat performer Mondo Man ought to be winning this then, though it is a surprise that they haven’t put some headgear on him after he pulled like a train – I was going to nick Mark Winstanley’s risque line, yet again, about Elton John and a scout camp but I thought better of it – in finishing second to Lulamba at Ascot on his hurdling debut,
Everyone saw how hard he tugged, so for him to finish a 3 ½-length second there (even in receipt of 10lb from the winner), with a subsequent scorer in third, was obviously a cracking initial effort over the sticks.
I’d not be falling over myself to back him at the general [4/7] here – AKBets are [8/13] – though as Opec is surely better than he showed in the slop at Chepstow last time, and the same comments apply to the expensive French purchases Sauvignon and Mambonumberfive.
They were both pulled up in the race won by East India Dock at Cheltenham last time (Sauvignon was a fierce late drifter, so someone saw that coming) but I can see Mambonumberfive running a much better race and I’ve thrown a score on him at 20s.
He was clearly far too free at Cheltenham and his French form (though I still can’t believe someone paid 450,000 euros for him at the sales in July 2024) entitles him to be on the premises here if proving more tractable.
We only lost one at the overnight stage for this 4f214yd Listed race (we will have quarter racing next….) and that was the 82-rated Habooba.
But it remains a race that I have no interest in.
It’s far too early in the season for all-weather racing, let alone 5f jobbies, and I am not going to lie.
I don’t tend to do anything half-hearted, but I’ll make an exception for Southwell in February.
Do you want a token selection?
No, I thought not, but if you like [13/2] poke Valiant Force the stable form would not put you off, one iota.
Runners from the Adrian Murray yard’s form figures since Feb 7th read 51152321511021, and both of the horses who finished second were only beaten a neck.
Las Canals was the only one to leave the field this morning, so we still have eight in the race.
At this stage..
This looked very tricky at the five-day stage, and clearly very little has changed, with it being fairly easy to see any one from seven of these winning.
And the strong pace map could be troubling for a few of these, as well.
The 8s and 7s about Celtic Dino soon disappeared on Tuesday, and he is into [5/1] now, with that only available in a place.
His trainer is adamant is this horse wants good ground at a minimum after disappointing in the soft last time, so a weather watch is needed there (it is promising so far – see below).
Roysse gives the impression he is much better than he has shown to date and is a fair price at [17/2] but this race can pull you this way and that in the analysis stakes.
I’ll cut the waffle and bow out here, especially as the dead-eight looms large here for each-way backers.
Mind you, that 11s Andashan in a place is tempting, too….
Another Southwell race to hold up well at the overnight stage numbers-wise, with Old Harrovian and Raja Raja the only no-shows.
But, as above, I am not in the slightest bit interested in this seven-runner race (with three 50s and 66s pokes).
We lost the following at the overnight stage: Iroko, Kandoo Kid, Goshen, In d’Or and Bowtogreatness.
Lowry’s Bar was a surprise acceptor perhaps, having traded as big as 80.0 in the exchange market earlier in the week. The sums were minimal (£75.68 matched in total; you half that for the amount backed) and the last traded price before the market was suspended early on Thursday morning was 24.0.
Someone didn’t know (though of course the layers could still get paid if he doesn’t run….)
I wrote on Thursday: “There are some big-priced runners I fancy on Saturday, and their prices probably won’t last (one won’t go deeper than the general 33s, shall we say) but I am not going to rush the copy out now for a few early, minimal-stakes, shits and giggles).”
It turns out I should have done…
Back to Lowry’s Bar.
It wasn’t the good ground that ruled him out of the Reynoldstown last Saturday (it was a bruised foot) but his record says he ideally wants plenty of dig (though Timeform did call it good to soft on his last two starts).
A mark of 148 is no gimme too, but it is hard to escape the conclusion that he would have given Jingko Blue plenty of trouble at Windsor last time had he not tried to take the third-last home with him, and he remains a novice of some potential.
He has to be feared if running – he is best at [11/2], they’ll want rain to take part, I imagine – but what I said about Our Power on Tuesday holds true, so I’ll pretty much repeat it here, with a couple of tweaks.
He was 12s and 10s then though, and he is now tops at 7s in a place.
Sam Thomas must have a very small string but he does exceptionally well with them (14 from 61 this season at a strike rate of 23 per cent) and his last two runners have won.
His Our Power has obvious each-way potential here at 12/1 (in two places on the Oddschecker grid), though 10s is the general price.
He won this race in 2023, having finished third the year before, and he has course form figures of 331531.
He will have been freshened up for this after two solid runs at Cheltenham earlier in the season (over trips that probably stretch his stamina elastic to the full) and, while he clearly doesn’t have the handicap upside of Hyland or Lowry’s Bar, he will surely take some kicking out of the first four (all firms, bar one, are betting a quarter the odds 1,2,3,4) .
He now ranges from 5s to 7s, so I can leave him alone. He could well drift back out though.
Golden Son was 20s in a place on Tuesday (only in the spot that is not easily accessible, though I guess nothing is these days) and he is now into a best-priced 9s (11s in one place on Thursday disappeared),
He was a more representative 14s and 12s earlier in the week and I can see the case for the nibbles, though arguably his stablemate Tahmuras at 16s is more attractive at the current odds.
If Hyland can do it in this bigger field, no-one is going to be surprised by him winning this, though the bookies have all bases covered at the general 3s, I’d have thought.
If you want an outsider to consider then Deeper Blue looks interesting on his first start for David Pipe since leaving Harry Fry.
He was freely available at 33s when I wrote the first draft of this column on Thursday afternoon, but he is now best at 22s (in just two places), which is rather disappointing.
The last time we saw him he was pulled up after an error-ridden display at Ayr in April, when sent off at 7s, but he has been dropped 2lb since and his earlier 1 ¼ length second over an extended 2m7f to Neon Moon at Newbury , 9 lengths clear of a subsequent winner, reads well enough here.
Plenty well enough.
The winner, now a stablemate, is rated 10lb higher after a fair run of form since.
His earlier second to Henry’s Friend (now rated 16lb higher) at Hereford is also very solid form – perhaps even better than the Newbury run – and he is unexposed at this trip.
The absence is clearly a concern, but that 33s was a fair carrot, with the expected decent ground to suit, and maybe a first-time tongue-tie will help, too.
With a 150k pot on offer, you’d hope Pipe will have him fully tuned up for this. His jumping is an obvious worry around here, but the price compensates.
Well, it compensated a lot more when he was ready accessible at 33s, and the 22s is only fair, especially as the blow-out potential is considerable. You have to let these sorts go when the price has gone.
Good luck.
I’ll probably be back on Saturday morning with an update if it warrants it.
Ilikedwayurthinkin at [14/1] each way, five places, in 2.10pm at Newcastle. Available in two places.
(Lots of other suggestions and angles suggested in copy – take a read)
Going – Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick readings – Chase: 5.3; Hurdle: 5.1
WERE Chase: 7.4: Hurdle 7.2 (as at Friday 10.30am)
Rails: The Chase Course is 2 yard out from its inner configuration and the Winter Hurdle Course is on its inner configuration, with the effect on distances added to race distance details.
Saturday morning course update: “Broken Showers. Another 2mm of rain this morning since 6.30am so 12mm of rain overnight. Forecast: Risk of showers on Saturday morning, with the potential for 2mm to 4mm of rain. Clearing mid morning with temp +14C.”
Weather: Light showers
Going – Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading –TBC
WAS 5.8 (7.30am Thursday)
Rails: Shared bends with rail set to the innermost lines on both tracks. Distances as advertised.
Weather: Dry
Saturday morning course update: “No measureable rain Friday. Saturday looks set to remain dry with sunny spells and a light south westerly breeze. Temperatures of around 11C.”
Going – Standard
The track will have undergone full de-compaction prior to this fixture and may ride slower than STANDARD.
Stalls:5f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Weather: Dry
Friday morning course update: “18mm of rainfall to date this month. 2.6mm last yesterday. Today, some sunny spells, but cloudy at times. (11C) Breezy. Saturday, mostly dry with sunny spells and some occasional cloud (12C)”
John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces 13-106 (since 2021) – Miltary Academy , 3.15pm Southwell
John Gosden 14-105 (2016)
2.10pm Newcastle: Prince Des Fichaux (2lb)
1.50pm Kempton: Ashdale Bob, Bhaloo (prom), Imperial Saint. Rubaud
2.10pm Newcastle: Collectors Item (prom), History Of Fashion?, Ilikedwayurthinkin, Bretney, Choosethenews, Sporting Ace (prom), Chemical Warfare, Prince Des Fichaux (prom), Your Own Story (prom)
2.25pm Kempton: Mambonumberfive (prom), Opec
2.40pm Southwell: Marshman (prom), Bedford Flyer, Diligent Harry, Hiya Maite, Ostraka, Tees Spirit, Valiant Force, Pure Angel (prom)
3pm Kempton: Roadlesstravelled, Celtic Dino, Andashan, Miami Magic, Roysse
3.15pm Southwell: Royal Champion. Champagne Prince, Pleasant Man (prom)
3.35pm Kempton: Lowry’s Bar, Hyland, Tahmuras (prom), Beachcomber, Golden Son (prom), Guard Your Dreams (prom), Charlie Uberalles, Corrigeen Rock (prom), Deeper Blue?
Excellent: Adrian Murray (check out the 2.40pm at Southwell analysis for his stable form)
Good: Mark Walford, Neil King (two from two at 12-1 and 7-2), Ewan Whillans, Sam Thomas, Chris Gordon, Robert Cowell (small sample), Roy Bowring (small sample), D J Murphy (small sample), James Horton (small sample), Ben Pauling (double on Friday), Tim Easterby (small sample), Charles Hills (very small sample)
Fair: Brian Ellison (no winners), Jamie Snowden, Alan King, Greenall and Guerriero, Ryan Potter, Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson (winner on Thursday), Hobbs and White, Paul Nicholls (probably moderate for him but a winner on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore, James Owen (winner on Thursday, and 2-7 scorer on Friday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Fergal O’Brien (arguably moderate), Stuart Edmunds, Neil Mulholland (arguably good), Nigel Twiston-Davies, Michael Appleby, Antony Brittain, Henry Daly (pretty moderate but couple have run okay of late), Karl Burke, Richard Hannon, Martin Dunne, Toby Lawes (few runners), Parkinson and Smith, Lucinda Russell
Moderate: Ben Haslam, David Pipe, James Ewart, John McConnell
Don’t know: P A Fahy, Jessie Harrington, Dianne Sayer, Adrian Nicholls, Jane Chapple-Hyam, John and “The Real Slim” Thady Gosden, Natalia Lupini, Clive Cox, Cian Collins
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