By Tony Calvin - 14 August 2025
Nothing much doing in the greys’ race at 2.05pm at Newmarket, though Addison Grey could challenge Binhareer for favouritism at some stage.
Maybe.
Up at Ripon, Hectic is a NR in the 2.45pm (no Rule 4) and Novello Lad is the clear favourite at [9/2] in that race. It’s also pretty dead in the Great St Wilfrid. The only move of note (probably cut, rather weight of money, after Hugh Taylor put it up yesterday morning) was Supreme King 25s, 22s and 20s into 14s yesterday. It is now just 11s but 16.5 on Betfair (just over 15k matched on market as at 7am) and he will drift back out.
At Newbury, no real movement in 1.50pm, so as you were there.
Star Chorus is the main early mover (10s to 11/2) in the 2.25pm, though the general 14s about Faustus was taken and he is now 11s.
Classic is relatively weak at 4s in the 3pm, and Jumby’s price has gone from 6s to [9/2] and there isn’t much between them in the early exchange betting.
There is nothing major occurring in the Charlie Hungerford at 3.35pm, with More Of Thunder solid, though Spy Chief is weak enough at 6s (8.4 on Betfair) and my fancy Duty First is now only 20s in a place after being 28s and a general 25s yesterday.
But, again, only £15,162 was matched on Betfair as at 7.10am, so this market has a long way to go. As they have with all these contests.
I’m off to pinch a loaf (I have been watching Band Of Brothers again – google it) and then catch a train (no euphemism there).
Good luck.
——-
Just the one no-show from the five-day entries (Alsakib) for the Group 3 90k Geoffrey Freer Stakes, in which six are set to line up.
Please check out the watering levels at all three tracks today (see below).
It must be quite lucrative owning a Group 2/3 middle-distance horse on the Flat in the UK, as there are a lot of soft, valuable, small-field races for them.
This is one such.
We don’t have last year’s winner, the admirable Al Aasy, in here – he is still mopping up these contests at the age of eight, they are so weak, and he has won an amazing seven Group 3s – so every one of these has a chance, as the betting suggests (though one firm has knocked Ambiente Friendly out to 14s – they really should have left last year’s Derby runner-up with James Fanshawe).
The 3yos, getting a not inconsiderable 9lb from their elders, could hold sway here, with possibly Pinhole to the fore, but his price is nothing is nothing flash at 2s and this looks trappy to me.
I’d probably lean towards Candleford if pushed, as he is surely the most likely leader in here (he surely has obvious back-to-lay potential, Mr Mantle) and this represents an easier task than his third to the aforementioned Al Aasy and Meydaan in a similar race at Goodwood last time.
He is 5s, and a touch bigger on Betfair as this goes live at 11.15am on Friday (6.6 in an exceptionally illiquid market). I’ve had a tiny nibble, as it stands, with a view to getting rid of it around 2s in running.
Hopefully.
But a win for any of the six in there would not surprise, so in those circumstances – allied to not having any real issues of how the sextet are priced – no bet is the obvious call.
Epic Poet has been cut from an opening [9/2] into [7/2].
The course will be happy enough with 11 of the 15 five-day greys rocking up here.
For some reason, this race was not priced up at the five-day stage. Strange, as I have seen worse 0-85 weekend handicaps and it was a manageable field for the odds-compilers to handle.
No-one will have been bothered by that, though.
We have the last three winners of this 6f greys’ race in here – Archduke Ferdinand, Silver Samurai and Strike – and maybe this has been their short-term target for a while (if that makes sense), though it is just over 10k to the winner, so it is hardly a lucrative pot.
The first firm up at 12.38pm on Thursday predictably made William Haggas’ lightly-raced and wide-margin Ayr winner Binhareer their [7/4] favourite, even though he went up 8lb for that win in early January.
He is now available at [9/4] for those tempted.
If you ask bookmakers which are their favourite races, they will probably say sprint handicaps (and with good reason), and this is the first of four such races on ITV’s seven-contest offering, which is probably a touch too much.
In fact, it is at least two too many.
I can live without a bet here, on a track that I dislike punting-wise.
Spoiler alert – that isn’t the only time I will be saying that in this column.
An acceptable 11 of 18 confirmed on Thursday morning confirmed for this 5f handicap.
Yes, you read it right – another sprint handicap.
I won’t keep you that long here then – Faustus won this last year, by the way, and more of him shortly – but I mentioned on Tuesday that Getreadytorumble was an obvious ante-post favourite (at 4s, though only four firms priced this up) and that logic stands here.
He gets in this 0-88 handicap off the ceiling mark of 90, and I am surprised the handicapper didn’t raise him at all for a good length second in worsening conditions at Goodwood last time.
In fact, I am a bit puzzled why he was left on the same mark, as the winner went up 5lb.
Perhaps Jack Channon pleaded with the handicapper to leave him alone and won the day (and they were all in a bunch behind the winner, to be fair) and his lightly-raced 3yo could take a lot of stopping here on quicker ground, on which he is two from two.
I personally wouldn’t lay him at the current 3s – the first firm up at 1.01pm on Thursday went [11/4] – especially now the stable has struck form again.
Faustus is interesting enough at 14s for those that wanted a longer-priced stab in this devilishly-difficult race (sorry).
He only beat one home at Goodwood last time but he was a 50s poke running from 3lb out of the handicap there, and this is more like it from a winnable perspective.
He had earlier won well here off a 6lb lower mark under today’s 5lb claimer (he is two from two at this track) and the 14s in 10 places, and the 12s, looks fair enough for any each-way sprint handicap junkies out there.
Get out of the habit.
Sixteen of the 29 confirmed for this 6f handicap and, I am not going to lie, both of these big-field sprint handicaps at Ripon do nothing for me.
The 7s chance Fortamour looks solid enough but nothing is screaming to be backed here.
Not even whispering, in fact.
Fortamour is a longstanding Ripon regular (he has won six of his 24 starts here) who is in decent enough nick, and he is a strong candidate for top-five honours if Paul Mulrennan can negotiate a clean passage (I was going to say this isn’t always a given but I am at York next Wednesday and I may bump into him…).
He is available at 7s, five places, with three firms for those more tempted than I.
Hectic is a NR as at 5.54am (not eaten up).
Just 11 of 22 confirmed on Thursday morning confirmed for this 7f handicap, but it’s a decent prize for the lucky winner (who cops over 25 bags) and that could well be Jumby.
He finished a close third in the Hungerford Stakes last season, just seven days after finishing third off a mark of 100 at Newmarket.
He comes to this meeting after the same stepping stone then, as he finished third in the same race at HQ last week after drifting hugely in the market (which could suggest he needed it after a month absence).
He is on a very workable mark of 94 now, he has the back form to win this (he actually won the Charlie Hungerford in 2022 – one for Bergerac fans there), and this course winner looks a solid enough proposition , for all he is a 7yo now.
The general [6/1] is very fair and probably the best bet in the race. Or maybe the most solid each-way proposition.
The firm that offer four places here go a ridiculous [4/1].
Come on.
It is embarrassing.
There isn’t a lot of pace in here.
The [7/2] favourite Classic can get on the bunny, as he did when winning at Sandown, but Wolf Of Badenoch is another forward-goer, and he has been given a decent chance by the handicapper, having been dropped 4lb for his run in the Britannia.
He has presumably had his issues since a good 2yo campaign, which included a Group 2 Vintage Stakes second, but 28s could underplay his chances.
He is 10lb lower than he was rated after that Goodwood run, very fair considering he has only raced four times since, and his April run at Chelmsford (after which he was gelded) wasn’t that bad at all.
The step back down to 7f could well suit, too.
I may have a small bet on him if I can access some of that 28s (he is actually 30s with two firms), but I am struggling to do so, at the moment.
I’ll probably have to make do with 25s, or wait for the exchange market to come to life on Saturday.
I’ll have a tickle on that 6s Jumby too, which is available with five firms as this goes live, but it is another lottery ticket job.
Just 17 runners for the 100k Great St Wilfrid, though I guess that is fair going these days (especially with a 0-80 6f handicap proceeding it, which took away some possibles).
If you were looking for a price about Supreme King then I have just seen that you’ve been Hugh Taylor-ed on Friday morning, with the 25s, 22s and 20s now becoming 14s after a convincing case was made by the main man.
Again, a minimum-stakes betting medium for me, if that, but I can certainly see the case for Grant Wood at 12s.
That is the generally available price, with five places available for each-way backers. In fact, six places and 12s is on offer for those with access.
That looks a fair combination.
He won the 0-80 handicap on this card in emphatic style last season (off just a 4lb lower mark) – Supreme King won his race on the far side there but only finished fifth – and he reacquainted himself with the course with a promising enough run here 12 days ago.
That looked an obvious tee-up job for this, as it was his first start for over two months, and his stable is in fair nick, with another [7/1] winner on Thursday.
Hands up, I have never heard of 3lb claimer Aiden Brookes, who has never ridden the horse before (yes, I know he has been around for a while and has ridden stacks of winners but I haven’t – I could have lied) but his stats are okay and I imagine he is up to the job if the horse is.
We are three shy of a full field here, but he will still need plenty of luck in running. And the draw is always hard to call here (see below for pace maps).
As pretty much expected, the Charlie Appleby pair of Notable Speech and Shadow Of Light didn’t confirm on Thursday morning, so there is a healthy field of 10 for this 150k pot.
Only 12lb separates top and bottom-rated at these weights – even with his 3lb penalty Lennox winner Witness Stand has 4lb and more in hand of this field, and has been the market mover so far at his current [9/2] – and maybe the [28/1] outsider Duty First is the one to side with at the prices.
In fact, she definitely is.
She gets weight from all of the opposition as the only 3yo filly in the field and she returns to the scene of her impressive course and distance win in the Fred Darling in April.
That was a big performance on the clock and the form has worked out well enough, if a tad mixed (the third was Royal Ascot Commonwealth Cup winner Time For Sandals) and she has been highly-tried in Group 1 company over a mile since, including when a fair fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas.
I really like her back at 7f, as she has looked a weak finisher over a mile, and she surely has a much better chance than 28s, and the general 25s, suggests. Any 20s+ would do me.
Sure, she blew out totally in first-time cheekpieces (retained here) at Royal Ascot – granted, she was a 66s poke in that lofty company – but it is why we are getting the price here.
If she returns to the form of that Fred Darling win (or indeed that Classic Curragh run) then she could make these all go.
And another plus is the stable are enjoying a fair spell after a relatively quiet season (44 winners, though).
I’ve had a fair pop on her at 28s and 25s, and she is my clear bet of the day at the current prices.
It is the only bet that matters to me today.
Well, it isn’t a sprint handicap, is it?
GOING: Good to firm, good in places
Soil moisture average = 46%
Going Stick : 5.9, Saturday 6am
Saturday morning course update: We lost 3.4mm in evaporation (ET) yesterday (29C). Forecast: Cloudy start, sunny later, gentle breeze (26C).
Rails: Back straight now full width, providing fresh ground. 7f & 5f bends are on line 1
Stalls:1m2f & 1m4f – Inside Remainder (straight) – centre
Watering: 15mm cycle applied Thursday 7th/ Friday 8th. 6mm applied Monday. 15mm applied Tuesday/ Wednesday. 6-10mm applied Thursday. 3-4mm selective watering applied after racing last night.
Weather: Dry, sunny and warm
GOING: Good to firm, good in places
Going stick: 8.1, Saturday 6am
Rails: Rail from back straight to home straight dolled out by 2 yards adding 4 yards to races on the round course.
Stalls: Straight Course – Stand side Round Course – Inside rail 1 mile 4 furlongs – Centre
Saturday morning course update: Dry for the past week. Friday – Sunny intervals, gentle breeze, 27’c. Saturday – Light cloud, sunny intervals, gentle breeze, 23’c.
Weather: Dry, sunny and warm
Watering: 2mm applied on Sunday night, continuing with 4-6mm per night from Monday night then 2-3mm overnight Friday
GOING: Good to firm
Going Stick: 6.6 Friday, 7am
Rails: Far Side Course in use
Stalls: 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre. 1m 2f and 1m6f – Inside
Saturday morning course update: Dry but feeling cooler, max daytime temp of 23c
Weather: Dry, sunny and warm, 23 degrees
Watering: 3mm applied to the July Course (final 1m) after racing on Friday.
None
Ralph Beckett cheekpieces; Consolidation, 3pm Newbury; 8-51 since 2016
1.50pm Newbury: Candleford (drawn 1), Ambiente Friendly (prom -2 ), Furthur (4)
2.05pm Newmarket: Archduke Ferdinand (11), Gressington (9), Sensorium (4), Rokuni (3)
2.25pm Newbury: King Of Stars (5), Lil Guff (8), Almaty Star (11), Sugar Hill Babe (1), Faustus (9), Roach Power (2)
2.45pm Ripon: Kats Bob (4), It Just Takes Time (6), Fortamour (13), Ziggy’s Ariel (12), Bay Breeze (prom – 3)
3pm Newbury: Classic (6), Wolf Of Badenoch (9)
3.20pm Ripon: Nostrum (7), Alzahir (17), City Walk (3), First Folio (13), Intervention (1), Kodiac Thriller (10), Mister Sox (4), Beyond Borders (12), Azure Zain (8)
3.35pm Newbury: Witness Stand (2), Alyanaabi (5), Fair Angellica (6), Rage Of Bamby (4), Marvelman (9), Spy Chief (8), Duty First (prom – 1)
Good: William Haggas (very good), David O’Meara, Andrew Balding, Owen Burrows, Mick Appleby, Christopher Mason (very small sample), Michael Wigham (very small sample and no winners), Mark Walford, Philip Midgley (another 7-1 winner on Thursday), Philip Kirby, Grant Tuer, Ed Bethell, Jack Channon, Bryan Smart, Hugo Palmer, Ralph Beckett
Fair: James Owen, Marco Botti, John and Thady Gosden, Eve Johnson Houghton, Archie Watson, Seb Spencer. Kevin Frost (no winners), Ruth Carr, Jennie Candlish, Saeed bin Suroor, David Evans, Jim Goldie, Richard Fahey, Daniel and Claire Kubler (25-1 winner on Thursday), Clive Cox, Dylan Cunha, Tim Easterby (25-1 and 12-1 winners on Thursday, ao approaching good….), Jonathan Portman (two recent winners arrested a mini-slide), Newland and Insole, Julie Camacho (welcome winner at 9s on Thursday, and another on Friday)
Moderate: Richard Hannon (two winners yesterday but form has been decidedly moderate), Richard Hughes, Robert Cowell (very long losing run – so it at least due one), Liam Bailey, John Gallagher, Cook and Bridger (though one near- miss), Rebecca Menzies (one close second), Alice Haynes, Charles Hills (much-needed 14-1 winner on Thursday, though)
Don’t know: Christine Dunnett, Ben Haslam, Alan Brown (only five runners; all big prices)
1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here I’d say Newbury were relieved…
2.2opm York – A tough punting Mission to undertake Now, this is exactly the kind…
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