TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY’s statistics and information – and all copy now included

Newbury – weather/rain watch (8.2mm since midnight as at 10.45am, according to live rain gauge – rain now stopped)

Some tremendously competitive handicaps at Newbury on Saturday makes finding winners tough (but lucrative if you can), and then we have the current, fluctuating, weather forecast to contend with.

First thing on Friday morning, the main site I use had 23mm landing at Newbury on Saturday, starting at 2am.

A few hours later (10am, in fact) and that had been downgraded to just 5.4mm. Make that 9.4mm as at 1.30pm.

And the Newbury course update this morning explains why: “Uncertain forecast for Saturday, but we could see 10-20mm of rain possible if the front stays to the south.”

If.

I am going be largely away from the internet and laptop this weekend, so I’ll make do as best as I can with the Newbury analysis.

Back later this afternoon.

SATURDAY MORNING: 9.18am update – 6mm so far; 10mm is now forecast this morning.

Newcastle had 8mm yesterday, and are now good to soft, soft in places. More rain could be coming in from 1pm.

1.40pm Newbury – 9/1 Guard Duty has his chance

It is already soft at Newbury and it could get a fair bit deeper, which would no doubt be music to the ears of the connections of [11/2] chance Lud’or, if not necessarily the current [4/1] favourite French Ship.

I don’t truly believe anyone truly ignores trainerform and I am sure would-be supporters of Guard Duty were watching Emma Lavelle’s three runners at Newbury today with keen interest.

The form of her horses have definitely tailed off in the last month or so but there were green shoots of recovery this week, and Bluey ran okay in the novices’ handicap chase today (albeit fourth of the five finishers) and JJ Moon and Classic King similarly so in defeat in the 3m handicap hurdle just now.

If stable form is not a factor, Guard Duty has a lot going for him in this uber-competitive race.

Lavelle writes a Weekender column now and she reported her horse is “absolutely flying”, having been to the gallops morning here last week.

If you ignore his possibly non-staying effort over 2m7f+ at Uttoxeter last season (which was also just 14 days after a previous win here, so maybe it came too soon), he has a very likeable and progressive profile.

And possibly one with more to come off this mark, as his wins at this track and at Windsor were strong handicap form, albeit he is 10lb higher than when beating a hat-trick seeking Loverdose (also in this race) here in March. He absolutely danced in there, though.

I may have a small win-only bet on him at 9/1 or bigger , as all of these have their chance at their current prices in this 15-runner handicap.

2pm Newcastle – The Fighting Fifth is a rearguard betting action for me

The ultimate no-bet race?

Perhaps it is just me but there seems to be an increasing number of “watch not bet” races these days – and Newcastle’s mouthwatering Fighting Fifth is probably the best example.

Everything about this race has a question mark attached to it, not least who is going to make the running.

Constitution Hill made all when beating Epatante in this race in 2022 – was that really three years ago? (obviously it was) – and when seeing off Sharjah at Aintree later in that campaign, but he has not gone from the front since.

Maybe the [100/1] supplemented outsider Nemean Lion will go forward, but would they prefer to play him late and look to pick up better than fifth-place prize money once the big guns have fired their bullets?

No, it’s an interesting dilemma for the jockeys involved, and you’d hope it wasn’t all agreed in the changing room beforehand.

We don’t want the late betting market telling us what is about to unfold, pace-wise.

We know The New Lion and Golden Ace stay a lot further, but there is nothing in their locker that suggests they would want to press on in an ideal world.

The same applies to Anzadam’s run-style to date.

Then we have the individual questions that each horse has to answer.

Looking back at that truly spellbinding Supreme win, and that unbeaten 2022-23 campaign, Constitution Hill is the best horse I have seen in the flesh, Kauto Star included, but even his most ardent supporters must worry about him here.

The [13/8] and bigger about him may turn out to be a gift about the one-time rockstar of the sport, but Nicky Henderson and his team will have pulled off one of the best training feats of recent times, Sprinter Sacre-stylee, if he can win this strong Grade 1 with a horse who was so listless when we last saw him trailing home a sorry sight at Punchestown in April.

We shall see.

I am not as sold as some that The New Lion should be as short as 4s (and 3s in places) for the Champion Hurdle.

Yes, plenty of top-class horses excelled at 2m after winning the 2m5f novices’ hurdle at the Festival, but I’m not at all certain a ¾-length defeat of The Yellow Clay, with a probably below-par Final Demand in third, justifies his position in the various markets.

But the [13/8] chance probably is the most straightforward horse in here, that much is true.

The fact that Anzadam, who ranges from [9/4] to [7/2] here, missed last weekend’s Morgiana Hurdle to come to the home of the Geordie was seen by some as a big negative, pointing out that Willie Mullins rarely (if ever) sends his best 2m hurdler to Newcastle in November.

But that probably misses the point.

He knows he has a top two-miler on his hands in Lossiemouth, should he wish to unleash her in the big one in March, and this is a more meaningful fact-finding mission for the unexposed and unbeaten Anzadam than an odds-on procession in the Morgiana would have been.

I’ve no idea how good he will be when his feet are held to this Grade 1 fire, though. I doubt Willie does, hence he wants to find out sooner rather than later.

Golden Ace may be the Champion Hurdler and one getting 7lb here, but an official mark of 152 tells an accurate story about her prowess.

We can excuse her reappearance eclipse in a two-runner race at Wetherby though, as she was full of mucus – not unlike myself for the past month, but hopefully she has responded better to medication than I have – and perhaps general quotes of 25s are overly-dismissive.

But who truly knows enough about this race to consider a bet?

Not I.

More importantly, do you need to have one?

2.15pm Newbury – 9/2 Indemnity is the solid option

Just nine runners in this handicap hurdle, but just as difficult in its way.

I can fully see the early move for Last Rodeo into 9s best from 14s and 12s on Thursday, as he clearly got a rough time of it at Cheltenham last month. But, even in testing ground, will he have the 2m pace to handle some of these?

I am not so sure, especially at 9s now.

This could be one seriously hot Gerry Feilden – though this race threw up some stars and Champion Hurdlers in the 70s, 80s and 90s, so it is not a patch on those heady days – with several of these lightly-raced and starting their campaigns off lowly marks.

That isn’t the case with the 143-rated Live Conti but you’d not be surprised to see him kick on from his Grade 1 second at Aintree in April, a race in which he tripled in price from the night before but still ran a cracker.

Lavelle’s Indemnity is the most solid proposition at [9/2].

We know he is in-form and race-fit, and he is only 1lb higher than when beaten 3 lengths by Alexei (20lb higher now) at Ascot last time.

The ground may be a concern but he handled deep ground on the Flat when trained by Roger Varian. I’m not sure if I’ll have a bet, but he is like most likely candidate if I do at the price.

2.55pm Newbury – Two against a full field

Two at 20/1+ and 16/1+ win-only for me

A cracking full field for this 250k 3m2f handicap.

I had a little win-only nibble on Gorgeous Tom at 25s ante-post after he sidestepped an engagement in Ireland on Thursday and, after opening up at that price in a place after the final field was known yesterday, he is now 16s tops.

There was 18s knocking about in three places on Friday morning but there was a little move for him around midday, and I can see it, obviously.

A staying-on length fourth in a bunch finish to the 2m4f Drinmore last season, I had a fair swing on him for the Brown Advisory, but he disappointed me there.

Sure, an 8 ½-length fourth reads well enough, but I was never happy with the way he was travelling and jumping from the outset and I think he is better than that.

Well, I hope he is anyway.

He showed nothing at Punchestown afterwards but there was a lot more like about his return over an extended 2m3f at Down Royal, going well from the front for a long way before the speedier Firefox picked him up,

Now, a mark of 151 is no gimme here, and he still has to prove his 3m2f stamina, but he strikes me as a 7yo with more to come and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side of his pedigree.

I may press-up win-only but he has 23 rivals to contend with, so take your pick of his biggest dangers.

Runaway Ultima winner Myretown is the obvious one and I don’t think 5s about him is that bad (for all he is 15lb higher here, and he should be rippling fit after apparently having had three racecourse gallops), but I kept on coming back to Inch House win-only at 20s+.

It must be killing Paul Nicholls to see horses like Act Of Innocence win so well after leaving him in the summer, so it’d be great if he could get a big win on the board.

Former Jonjo O’Neill inmate Inch House was pulled up in his two starts for Nicholls last season but there was much more promise in his reappearance sixth from the front at Cheltenham last month.

That should have put a hard fitness edge on him, and the fact that he is 2lb wrong doesn’t bother me that much. Sure, I would rather he was racing off his correct mark, but he still looks a well handicapped horse on his 2023-24 form.

That saw him win twice here and also finish second to Stumptown off a 4lb higher mark than this at Cheltenham, and he improved a good bit for his return runs in 2022 and 2023, winning second time out here two seasons ago.

He certainly has his chance in such a deep race, and I’ll give him some of my cash at 20/1 or bigger. I’ll play both of mine win-only on the exchange to small money.

3.15pm Newcastle – Cruz could be in control at 9/2

Thoughts as at 8.30am Friday.

All eight have stood their ground in this race, so it will be a shame if we lost one now.

I probably won’t be having a bet in it, even if the dead-eight stands come the off-time, as it looks very tricky.

A few people were fancying Cruz Control for the Coral Gold Cup but Tom Lacey has decided to come here for this far more winnable 70k pot, and he possibly makes most appeal at [9/2] (and a touch bigger win-only, around 5s, on the exchange, to very little money).

I think the handicapper has treated him very fairly by only putting him up 4lb for his comprehensive Aintree win in April, and he is three from four at this track.

There is rain due from 11am on Saturday (amounts vary from site to site) but the weather is no concern for a horse who has won on good and heavy.

His record when fresh is okay (his reappearance run last season came over hurdles , so we can forgive him that) , so I’d possibly make him the most likely winner here. He could have competition for the lead but, as we saw at Aintree, he doesn’t need to dominate to shine..

3.35pm Newbury – General 4/1 chance for repeat bid

I’ll keep this simple.

I think Lavelle’s General Medrano – yes, I know – should be going very close here and the general [4/1] and [7/2] looks fair enough to me.

He dotted up second time out in this race last season, and I think he has come down enough in the weights to get back on the winning trail here, though the less rain the better for him.

He went up to a mark of 143 after a good second at Doncaster after his win here, but he is now down to 139, having been dropped 1lb for a perfectly good return fourth at Ascot.

Put it this way, if the Lavelle stable haven’t turned that corner, I will be a fair bit poorer come the end of play, not that I am getting stuck in too much (I have found myself betting far less on racing of late) as I will be away from the TV this weekend.

Good luck on Saturday.

SATURDAY’S DETAILS

NEWBURY

HURDLE TRACK: Soft, good to soft in places (4.5 – Saturday 6am)

CHASE TRACK: Good to Soft (4.5) (53% soil moisture on both tracks).

Rails: HURDLES: Centre/ Outside. FENCES: outside. Split bends in place

Saturday morning course update: 1mm rain so far (still raining). Forecast: Another 3-7mm rain expected until midday, before some sunny spells possible this afternoon.

Weather: 8.2mm so far at 10.45am

NEWCASTLE (8mm Friday)

Going: Good to soft, soft in places

Going Stick: 6.3, Saturday 7.45am

Soil moisture: 56.7%

Rails: Fresh ground with rail set to the innermost running lines.

Saturday morning course update: 8mm rain Friday making a total of 30mm in the last 7 days. Bright start to Saturday and a very light grass frost with lows of 1.9C overnight. Increasing cloud cover through the morning with rain, potentially heavy at times, expected from early afternoon (approx 4-8mm). A northerly breeze with temperatures of around 7C.

Weather (latest yr.no forecast):  6.3mm but only starting at 1pm

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back)

2.55pm Newbury: Ask Brewster

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Joe Tizzard, cheekpieces, The Changing Man, 2.55pm Newbury; 3-39 (level stakes loss of 20 points at SP)

Venetia Williams, blinkers, Hold That Taught, 3.15pm Newcastle; 7-138 (level stakes loss of 85 points at SP)

PACE MAPS (ITV races; manually assessed)

1.40pm Newbury: Dargiannini, Personal Ambition, Lud’or

2pm Newcastle: NO OBVIOUS PACE (Constitution Hill made it twice in 2022-23 season, including this race)

2.15pm Newbury: Live Conti, Give It To Me Oj, Tutti Quanti, Col Du Pre, Hot Fuss, Viyanni

2.55pm Newbury: Intense Raffles, Spanish Harlem, Gorgeous Tom, Lowry’s Bar, Hyland, Annual Invictus, The Changing Man, Riskintheground, Myretown, Grandeur d’Ame, Pic Roc, Inch House, A Penny A Hundred?

3.15pm Newcastle: Cruz Control, Docpickedme, Konfusion

3.35pm Newbury: Etalon, Uncle Phil, Doyen Du Bar, Javert Allen

TRAINERFORM (ITV races; manually assessed)

Good: Joe Tizzard (excellent), Gordon Elliott, Ben Pauling, Nicky Henderson, Russell and Scudamore, Hobbs and White, Tom Lacey, Richard Hobson (small sample) Parkinson and Smith (really flying along), Faye Bramley (three winners from last eight runners), Tom Dascombe (small sample), Chris Gordon, Tom Symonds, Sam Thomas, Nicky Richards, Jane Williams, Anthony McCann, Chester Williams (very few runners)

Fair:  Anthony Honeyball, Olly Murphy (borderline good), Dan Skelton, Alan King, Christian Williams, Willie Mullins (fair for him), Kerry Lee (small sample), Harry Derham, Cian Collins, Charlie Longsdon, Fergal O’Brien, James Owen, Paul Nicholls (double on Thursday, and a Friday scorer)

Moderate:  Gary and Josh Moore (8-11 winner on Thursday), Emma Lavelle (recent hints of recovery), Robert Walford, Jeremy Scott, Venetia Williams (though a couple of decent seconds, so the tide could be about to turn – and it has with an early 13-2 winner at Uttoxeter on Thursday, though the subsequent two runners on the day ran badly), John McConnell, Evan Williams (10-1 winner on Thursday), Henry De Bromhead (moderate enough for him, anyway), Samuel Drinkwater, Thomas Gibney (small sample of big-priced runners, though), Gavin Cromwell (very poor – off-putting)

Don’t know: Ann Hamilton