TONY CALVIN: LET’s hear it for the Boy

SATURDAY COPY

1.45pm Cheltenham – Stencil is the interesting one, but only 7s now

The course has done wonders to get this meeting on (they have realigned the track to avoid unraceable areas, and the second-last fence has been omitted), but it will be gruelling stuff, you’d imagine.

Not ideal punting conditions for me, and I won’t be having anything approaching a serious bet.

Now, regular readers will know that I am not a fan of these small-field novices’ chases and I rarely bet on them, but this six-runner jobbie is actually interesting.

I’d rather be with the mare July Flower over Be Aware at the top of the market – they are [13/8] and [2/1] respectively, and I am not sure about the latter in the ground – but there is depth to the race beyond them.

We have the Champion Hurdle runner-up Burdett Road (said to be rather “brave” at his fences, so best of luck to Sam Twiston-Davies), the heavy ground-loving Brentford Hope and the improving Breaking Cover, but Stencil could be the dangerous, relatively unknown and unexposed, floater.

I flagged him up at 16s in Tuesday’s ante-post column (though that was cut to 12s in a matter of minutes), and this big unit is thought likely to be much better as a chaser.

And he did shape very well here last season when second to East India Dock before blowing out as the [11/4] favourite in the Fred Winter when running far too free, and he has deep ground form in France.

But that 16s has become 7s so, as is usually the case with these races, I’ll take a watching brief.

NAP OF THE DAY

Actually, I won’t, as I will be watching Italy versus South Africa, the first match of another brilliant day of egg-chasing from 12.40pm to gone 10pm (big decision as to what 8.10pm game to watch, with France v Fiji currently shading Ireland v Australia).

I actually give [19/1] chances, and 19-point underdogs, Italy half a squeak, though the Saffers bench will probably decide it.

Italy will win the National Anthems, anyway (NAP OF THE DAY).

2.20pm Hunter Legend has his chance, but not the price

Just the 12 runners for this 160k pot after we lost ante-post favourite Jagwar yesterday and the 3lb well-in Riskintheground this morning, both due to the ground.

And we have also just lost Issar d’Airy at 8.25am (going).

My thoughts on this race haven’t really changed since Tuesday, though the prices certainly have.

I made a case of sorts for Hunter Legend at 25s and 20s then, but he is now into [15/2] across the board.

There is good reason for some of the shortening, and he certainly has his chance in a very open handicap.

He is here for one, the weights went up after Matata came out, allowing him to get into the handicap proper (he was 2lb wrong at the five-day stage), the rain has come for him, and of course we have had the two NRs (well, three if you include Matata).

This is a very big step up class-wise and he has no Cheltenham experience, but he won easily in a decent time at Bangor the last time we saw him in April (that was a 0-120, which he won off 122) and he is on the up and proven in the slop.

If you take out his disappointing run over 3m at Uttoxeter in February, this half-brother to the stable’s smart 2m4f chaser Cepage (a decent sort around here) has a very progressive profile.

At the earlier double-figures odds, he was obviously worth chancing, but he is a walkaway price now, for all I can see him drifting from [15/2] when the serious cash arrives. But who knows these days?

He may find it difficult to contend with the tempo of this race against classier opposition.

It’s a really hard race to call, and one not made easier by the prevailing conditions.

Nothing else really appeals.

If a bet isn’t there, don’t force it.

2.55pm – Supremely obvious chance at 7/4

This is beginning to read like a worthless, I told you so column (don’t be nasty, now), as Supremely West currently trades at a general [7/4], having been available at [11/2] and 5s, albeit briefly, when my ante-post column went live on Tuesday.

The one worry I had then was that he would miss this race and head straight to the 100k Haydock handicap hurdle next Saturday (he could do both).

I said then he had shades about him of the stable’s Doyen Quest in this race last year. That one was smashed into [5/4] and duly shat in, despite a bad blunder at the second hurdle.

The promise of Supremely West’s debut for Dan Skelton was there for all to see here last month, as he finished off his race well to take third in that Pertemps Hurdle qualifier, and the handicapper was so impressed he raised him 1lb for being beaten 5 ¼ lengths.

That was a not-so-subtle “I saw it, Daniel” message.

His form in officially heavy ground reads 12221, and I think he will be devilishly hard to beat here, for all I can let him win unbacked at [7/4], a price which could be coming under pressure anyway.

We are down to eight in this race now, with Good Look Charm and Priory Park out, and another NR is probably not a big price.

Watch out there, each-way punters.

As at 11am, we have had 16 NRs on the card, 12 ground-related.

3.10pm Wetherby – There are question marks surrounding the 5/4 favourite

Wetherby had 24mm overnight into Saturday, but they are still only calling it good to soft, soft in places.

With around 5mm more to come this morning, I am working on the basis of soft/heavy.

There is still no going stick reading since Wednesday to give some context to the ground descriptions.

It’s going to be pretty testing here though, so the relative youngsters in this 2m Introductory Hurdle will know they have had a race.

If they were trying, that is…

Jamie Snowden’s Fresh Perspective is the [5/4] favourite and brings the best hurdling form to the table courtesy of his 8-length win at Fontwell and his on-fire trainer seemed to be pretty impressed by him there.

He said: “Fresh Perspective did an awful lot wrong and still won very impressively, so when he puts it all together I think he could be very good. He’s a very talented horse with a huge engine and he’s very exciting.

“We’ve only been schooling him on the all-weather, so he hasn’t been out on the grass, and that showed today with his jumping being all at sea.”

However, he does carry a penalty against unexposed sorts from a couple of top yards, on comfortably the softest ground he has encountered, so there are question marks at the price.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we got a couple of non-runners due to the ground, so watch out if you are thinking about playing each-way against the favourite in this nine-runner race.

The ground is now soft, good to soft in places, and the course have updated their going stick readings, so fair play.

3.30pm Cheltenham – 15/2 Kap could be the boy

C’Est Different is out with a knocked joint. You could get hit with a 5p Rule 4 there.

And the [7/2] chance French Ship has just come out of the race at 9.28am (going), so expect a further 20p Rule 4 or so.

Last Rodeo is out now, too.

This is another hard-to-call handicap but I thought Kap Boy was a fair price at [15/2] with four firms, and 7s.

He had some decent bumper form when with Paul Nicholls, including a debut win on heavy ground, before not really progressing over hurdles.

But a switch to Olly Murphy immediately saw him perk up and he won easily at Perth last month. The handicapper could possibly have upped him more than 9lb for that win.

Of course, this is a much deeper and classier race than the Perth contest, but the runner-up won by 4 ½ lengths at Ayr on Wednesday, so I think we are looking at a well-treated and lightly-raced 6yo here for a trainer and jockey combination that can do little wrong at present.

The [15/2] looks the best price in the race, and probably the best bet I have seen this morning on the ITV races, for all I am only having a score or so on him, win-only.

It’s that kind of day.

3.43pm Wetherby – Price has gone about Primoz

NB OF THE DAY HAS JUST GONE IN – this race is now down to seven runners.

There is the dead-eight in this 2m3f+ handicap chase, so definitely keep an eye out for a NR here.

It materialised at 8.33am when Vintage Fizz was taken out.

Only seven runners then, but I saw a fair bit of potential pace in this, of which Primoz is one, though he has only tended to force it in very small fields.

Lucinda Russell has made no secret of the regard in which she holds this horse, so she must have been slightly frustrated to see him just rated 129, with some disappointing runs to his name of late, including here last time out when third of four as a [4/6] poke.

He actually went off at a mere 6s for the Grand Annual just four starts ago.

You do suspect he is better than his mark if getting it altogether, and perhaps softer ground will help him, for all his stamina is not copper-bottomed here.

It’s possible the first-time cheekpieces could unlock the potential (all three of his siblings have been tried in them, one winning) and I was half-tempted by him at 6s+ win-only.

But I didn’t see a pressing need to get involved in the final analysis, especially as that 6s has become 4s.

And that is maybe going, too.

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE (6.42am)

The ground at Cheltenham is now heavy, soft in places, as at their 6.37am update, so racing clearly goes ahead.

It looks like the rain has thankfully stopped for the weekend.

Cheltenham had 7mm on Thursday night and 35mm throughout Friday. I think they actually got away lightly.

Three NRs so far, but more would seem inevitable, though.

In fact, Riskintheground has just come out of the 2.20pm, and Katios Queen in the 4pm (both Skelton horses), as at 6.33am.

Five and counting.

More news – the ground at Cheltenham is now heavy, soft in places, as at their 6.37am update, so racing goes ahead.

(Old Course) Inspection still taking place at 07:30 to assess running lines.

Good work by the course to get the information out there so early.

And good work by the course itself to still have soft in places!

I better start writing the Saturday column then….

Wetherby had 24mm Friday into Saturday, and they are now calling it good to soft, soft in places.

I imagine the good to soft will disappear as more rain is due.

Still no going stick reading there since Wednesday.

 

INSPECTION ON SATURDAY MORNING

There is now an inspection at 7.30am on Saturday morning for Cheltenham.

Sorry, precautionary inspection, as they called it on Friday afternoon when it was (still) raceable.

There may be one for Wetherby, too.

However, why is the BHA site still saying the ground is soft, good to soft in places? (I appreciate the tracks upload the information on there, not the BHA themselves).

Hugely misleading for anyone chiming in cold this morning before the Saturday morning update.

Wetherby could cop another bundle too, but they have no live rain gauge to keep us informed.

They also haven’t updated their going stick reading from Wednesday – and Cheltenham’s wasn’t working on Friday.

A touch comical, all round, for a top-level sport that relies on betting to fund it.

Early non-runners – Jagwar is out

The ante-post favourite Jagwar is out of the Paddy Power Gold Cup as at 4.34pm on Friday (going).

 

SATURDAY DETAILS

 

CHELTENHAM

Going: Soft, heavy in places

Second-last fence bypassed due to realignment to avoid unraceable areas.

Going stick: 5.3, Saturday 9.30am

Saturday morning course update: 21mm Monday – Thursday morning. Dry during the day Thursday. 7mm rain overnight into Friday. 35mm during the day on Friday. Light drizzle possible this morning but then dry thereafter.

Weather (latest yr.no forecast): Dry; light showers this morning, if anything

Watering: Last watering on the Round Course Friday 7^th

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

 

WETHERBY (24mm overnight)

Going: Soft, good to soft in places

Going stick: 4.7 on Sat 8:40am

Chase 4.6; Hurdle 4.7

Saturday morning course update: 7mm rain during Monday / overnight into Tuesday. 8mm rain overnight into Wednesday. 6mm rain overnight into Thursday, then dry until around 6pm on Thursday when a further 5.5mm rain fell overnight into Friday. A further 24mm rain throughout Friday / Saturday AM. Further rain expected during Saturday morning (5mm)

Weather (yr.no latest):  5.9mm Saturday

Rails: The shared ‘A1’ bend is located 6yds out from the ‘official’ line. The ‘away’ chase bend is located 4 yds out from the ‘official’ line and the away hurdle bend is located 6yds out from the ‘official’ line, race distances alterations as per the race summaries.

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Georgina Nicholls cheekpieces; Chattamento, 3.10pm Wetherby; 0-5

Russell and Scudamore cheekpieces; Primoz, 3.43pm Wetherby; 0-3

Russell alone 3-53

Scudamore alone 3-27

Jedd O’Keeffe cheekpieces; Vintage Fizz, 3.43pm Wetherby; 3-35

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.45pm Cheltenham: Brentford Hope, Burdett Road, Stencil?

2.20pm Cheltenham: Coming Up Easy, Vincenzo, Theatre Native (prom), Hunter Legend

2.55pm Cheltenham: Gowel Road, Kikijo (prom), Vee Dancer?

3.10pm Wetherby (limited evidence): Fresh Perspective, Minstrel Night?, Myrighthandman, Parish Quiz?

3.30pm Cheltenham: Royal Infantry, De Temps En Temps (prom), Kap Boy, Lavender Hill Mob

3.43pm Wetherby: Heltenham, Primoz, Parisencore, Cerendipity, William Of York?

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races)

 

Excellent: Jamie Snowden, Sam Thomas, Harry Derham

Good: Olly Murphy (very good), Nicky Henderson, Anthony Honeyball (very good), Martin Keighley (small sample), Dan Skelton, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Henry de Bromhead, Ed Bethell, Brian Ellison, George and Zetterholm (two recent winners in France, so good/fair), Ben Pauling (very good), David Pipe, Mark Molloy (very small sample – but one 11-2 winner from three runners), Tom Symonds, Nicky Richards (very good), Jedd O’Keeffe (small sample), Parkinson and Smith (flying along of late)

Fair: P J Rothwell, Paul Nicholls (maybe nearer good), James Owen, Russell and Scudamore (nearer good like Nicholls perhaps) Alan King, Venetia Williams, Gary and Josh Moore, Paul Nolan, Hobbs and White, Jessica Bedi (very small sample), Georgina Nicholls (very small sample), Christian Williams, Tom Lacey, Evan Williams (winners at 3s and 6-4 after a poor spell but still not great)

Moderate: Neil Mulholland (10-11 winner in opener at Uttoxeter), Killahena and McPherson, John McConnell, Gavin Cromwell, Rebecca Menzies, Micky Hammond, Greenall and Guerriero, Emma Lavelle, Tony Martin (though last runner was only beaten a short head)

Don’t know: Edward Power, Ryan Potter