By Tony Calvin - 20 November 2025
The market has settled on Kabral Du Mathan and Andashan being the two to beat in here, and I’d go along with that, unfortunately.
The former was always the favourite, and still is at [15/8] and a general [7/4], but Andashan attracted some support in the ante-post market, and is now into 4s tops, having been double those odds on Tuesday morning (granted we lost a few in here at the overnight stage).
I suspect they will dominate this.
We will start with the jolly, who we found out on Thursday morning has also had a wind op since we last saw him to add to the list of possible/probable positives, as he switches from Paul Nicholls to Dan Skelton.
What I wrote about him on Tuesday still holds true.
He will need to improve to win this off 140 but the switch of stables is clearly no negative – not that Nicholls did anything wrong with the horse, far from it – and maybe the step up in trip to 2m3f is the main positive here (dam won over 2m5f+ in heavy in France), as well as his excellent course form and the 5yo’s lightly-raced profile (this is just his seventh run over hurdles).
But I can certainly see the move for Andashan, too.
A decent bumper horse who is on a fair mark judged on his Kempton maiden hurdle win last season, he certainly shaped as though this step up in trip would suit him after a third at Newbury over 2m on his return.
The stable continues to go well, and those on at fancier prices than 4s have a very good bet.
The weights went up 7lb after Nemean Lion came out on Thursday, which suited Cormier, who is now in the handicap on 10st 5lb.
I backed him for the Greatwood at 33s (he got balloted out), and this recent 1m6f heavy ground Flat winner would appeal most of the outsiders at [16/1].
If anything, this 2m3f test should suit him better than the 2m of the Greatwood and his hurdles mark of 121 is workable on his older exploits, and I’ll look for some prices about him without the front two on Saturday morning.
This is a decent handicap hurdle though.
Oh, and the [15/8] about the favourite appears to be coming under pressure.
As at 3.50pm, he is now just [6/4], with [9/2] Andashan.
Lucky One is a NR as at 6.54pm (burst blood vessel)
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Not a great deal has changed here, though in the last half hour up to 9.20am Andashan has been popular and the 4s about him at 9.23am will not last.
Cormier is out to a generally available 20s, and I have had a small each way bet on him. One firm are betting 7s Cormier without the front two and I’m going to make a call to try to get a small tickle on that…but I suspect the front two in the betting will finish 1-2
This Grade 2 doesn’t lose much in comparison to the Betfair Chase, and this race revolves around which Il Est Francais turns up.
The negatives are that he is a real Jekyll and Hyde character and is it really a plus that he is now trained by Tom George? The stable have had very few recent runners and, let’s face it, they are a middling, run-of-the-mill outfit these days, certainly from a strike-rate percentage.
In addition, many may think this is a tee-up job for the King George and the likes of Pic D’orhy and Gidleigh Park could stick it up to him, early pace-wise.
But this is a horse who is comfortably the best in here on that heartbreaking 1 ¾ length second to Banbridge in that Boxing Day Grade 1 at Kempton – the second time he has excelled there – and he gets between 3lb and 6lb from his four rivals here.
If he burns up the opposition over the first few fences, this could be a point and shoot job over 2m5f, and I wouldn’t lay him at the available [5/2].
Or 2s, in fact.
But there are the (perhaps considerable) doubts expressed above, and we didn’t know the ceiling of Jango Baie and Gidleigh Park. I would fear them more than Pic D’orhy, who I think has a real job on here giving weight and age to them and the favourite.
Jango Baie has been the early mover from 4s on Thursday late morning to [9/4], and as short as [7/4], but beware of these oft-phoney betting wars at the 48/24-hour stage.
That said. the [9/4] is coming under pressure too, and he is now a general 2s.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: A pretty static betting market, with Jango Baie at 9/4 and Il Est Francais 5/2, with Pic D’orhy at 7/2, Gidleigh Park at 4s, and Master Chewy at 20s.
Il Est Francais is now [10/3] at 11.45am, which seems ludicrous. The Tom George factor maybe…..?
AKBets are currently top price on all bar Pic D’orhy here, who they go 10/3 about.
I bet the course and sponsors were getting a touch nervous at one point here, as there were only three in this race until Knappers Hill and Mr Hope Street were confirmed fairly late on.
Dan Skelton probably couldn’t resist the free money for his seemingly outclassed Mr Hope Street, though at least the horse is race-fit and getting weight all round, and stranger things have happened than him winning. I actually have an inkling that the 22s poke could outrun those odds.
There is only one bit of 22s left as I hit publish at 1.02pm.
As I wrote on Tuesday, it would have been nice to see trainers and owners rolling the big dice and running The Jukebox Man and Iroko in the Betfair Chase, but it is understandable that the former, absent since his Grade 1 Kauto Star win on Boxing Day, is being eased far more gentlier into his campaign, while the latter maybe has his Aintree mark to consider for the next few months.
I don’t have a strong betting opinion with [8/11] in a place and general [4/6] poke The Jukebox Man playing Iroko at [3/1] – all the [4/5] was taken about the favourite on Thursday as most assume the second-in won’t be overly-strained here – but you’d like to think there will be no hiding place for Grand National fourth Iroko here and he is the one to beat here at these weights, having just been touched off in this race last season and running to his mark thereafter.
It will be interesting to see which way he goes in the late market, but he could conceivably win this and his mark would remain unchanged.
Maybe.
The stable’s horses are not running well, either. Well, they weren’t until a 3-1 winner on Friday, though only two horses finished in that three-runner race, with the [6/5] favourite pulling up after losing its’ action.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: The Jukebox Man has eased to 5/6 in places, with that race-fit lurker Mr Hope Street into 18s….not a great deal of overnight movement here in truth. Everyone will be on Iroko watch on the show.
There was some wailing and gnashing of teeth when Anzadam wasn’t confirmed for the Morgiana on Thursday morning, but more fool to punters (and bookmakers, maybe) who got involved in the ante-post market and have already lost as a result.
And, on the other side of the fence, well done to those who have backed a runner and are now sitting on an excellent trading position at the very least.
You may have got lucky, though.
Some of the margins firms bet to on this race earlier in the week were borderline criminal, and one actually chalked up Anzadam as short as [4/11] at one stage, and it really shouldn’t have even been priced up in my opinion.
Willie Mullins had five of the nine (effectively five of eight, as William Munny was apparently confirmed in error at the five-day stage), so it was he, and he alone, who was going to decide the make-up of the race.
Everyone knew that.
And everyone else knew jack.
Anzadam may have been an intended runner – I didn’t have the first clue if he was, as was said in my ante-post column – but plans change for horses for a variety of reasons, especially after their midweek work, and even more so when you have so many Grade 1 guns to fire in the same race, and other similar contests in just a week or so.
And when there are big owners to juggle, too.
I know bookmakers use these markets as PR vehicles, but they really shouldn’t be pricing these kind of races up ante-post – and plenty didn’t, to be fair.
And all the horses in the race at the five-day stage also had the option of waiting for the Fighting Fifth or the Hatton’s Grace next weekend.
It was always a betting minefield.
And unfortunately some punters would have stepped on the biggest mine out there.
Sure, it is always buyer beware in ante-post betting and punters are all adults (at least I hope they are..) but the PR element can backfire – though there may have been customer demand for the market, I guess – and sometimes it just isn’t worth the hassle of playing the guessing game with so many variables.
Sometimes less is more in racing. Where I have I heard that before. Mr Fixture List….?
It certainly wasn’t as if the bookmakers were going to trade the market aggressively, for obvious reasons, which may have started to become apparent to some yesterday.
As it is, we now have Lossiemouth v Irancy v Ndaawi, with Glen Kiln favourite to pick up at least six bags for finishing fourth.
Still, a decent enough race (putting the positive hat on, for once) but, with the Mullins pair of Lossiemouth (now a heavy odds-on favourite) and Irancy making their returns, it is yet another of those small-field, watch-not-bet races.
Unless you have a Closutton levels-of-fitness stable mole….
Lossiemouth currently ranges between [4/9] and [4/11].
The ground could well be officially heavy here come race-time.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Lossiemouth has hardened into a general 3/10.
So everything else has taken a walk.
Only five finished in this race last season, in which massive drifter Shoot First won, with Phantomofthepoints back in third – both of those chance their arms again here – but it looks like being far more kindly conditions for the runners on Saturday.
We have a bit of rain on Saturday, but nothing too substantial is forecast (see below – 6mm – though of course we could get more, as this is Haydock, after all).
Ma Shantou heads the betting at a general [9/2] – 5s in a place – but I’d be pretty worried about the form of the Emma Lavelle yard if backing the impressive Cheltenham winner, and my thoughts really haven’t changed much since Tuesday.
And nor have the odds too much. The horse in question is Harbour Lake, on whom I had a win-only bet earlier in the week on Betfair at 40+, when he was 33s, fixed-odds. He is still available at 33s now.
We last saw him winning over course and distance in a good time in May on good ground – and I do suspect a decent surface suits him best, so, while Tuesday’s 16mm was not great news, the dry spell since certainly is – but he has form on soft if required if they get more than forecast (which is around 6mm from midnight).
He won at Aintree at this time last season off a long break, after finishing third in the same May race he won here, and I still struggle to see him as a 33 poke (bigger still to tiny sums on the exchange).
I know he has a job on here off a career-high 145, and a 5lb rise for the neck win here in May was harsh enough, but even so, I was happy to take my chances.
As with Ma Shantou, one negative is the form of the Alan King yard, who had another five beaten on Thursday, including a [4/6] chance.
Hartington was the ante-post mover from 12s, the fresh 8s being quickly taken on Thursday morning, and he is [13/2] and 6s now. And the booking of Sean Bowen would have been very welcome news to his early supporters.
Stamina won him the day over 2m4f on his return at Carlisle and he is only 3lb higher here, and you can see the step up to 3m suiting him here, all right.
But the price has gone now.
One who has gone the other way in the market on the exchange is Joyeux Machin. He was punted in to as low as 6s in the ante-post market but he is currently on offer at more than twice that, albeit to pennies.
I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay double-figures myself (he is 12s fixed-odds), as he ran okay over an inadequate 2m3f first time up at Chepstow last month and he has strong 2m7f+ form at Uttoxeter (went too soon and got reeled in by a neck by Red Risk), having caught the eye in good handicaps over shorter before that.
Perhaps the wind op since the run at Chepstow on October 11 is putting the market off, or. more probably, the fact that 7lb claimer Harry Atkins rides and Harry Skelton is on stablemate Ace Of Spades.
The horse may be tricky but I think he has a decent handicap in him off 137, though.
There hasn’t been a non-runner in time (it was a 1pm deadline today) to allow the first reserve Doctor Kildare to run, so get your money back on him, ante-post.
Take a leaf from Grange Hill’s anti-drug song/campaign in the late 80s/early 90s, and Just Say No if your bookmaker tells you your bet on him is a loser.
Plenty will try it on.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Despite the stable’s lack of winners of late (though both of their runners ran well in defeat yesterday), Ma Shantou is currently very strong at 7/2 (available at 5s yesterday).
In fact, all those at the top of the market – Hartington (stable nickname must be Stoker – one for the racing oldies) and Navajo Indy – are also very solid at the moment, too. Navajo Indy is now into [13/2].
Now that Wodhooh comes here instead of Punchestown on Sunday, and doesn’t wait for the Hatton’s Grace next week (though she could do both, I imagine), you have to think she will take a lot of stopping.
Of course, we don’t know her state of readiness for her first start since finishing second to Lossiemouth in the Aintree Hurdle in April, but she is the stand-out at these weights.
She went through the handicap ranks quickly and with aplomb before that 2 ¾ length second to the 160-rated Lossiemouth off levels in Scouseland, with the third 8 lengths away, and as a result she is unpenalised here.
That sees her getting weight all around, and 13lb off the 2lb-higher-rated Crambo, and I think she has to be 10lb off her best not to be winning this, for all her massive progress last season came on left-handed tracks.
And Ascot’s hurdles track can be a tricky course to navigate, position-wise, and Danny Gilligan is having only his third ride here.
In addition, I didn’t spot any obvious pace in here.
If she does underperform, then it is game on for pretty much all of these, including 40s poke Gwennie May Boy, having his first start for Olly Murphy, and 33s poke Winter Fog.
If you want to play it safer, then Welsh Champion Hurdle winner Celtic Dino could be the one, as obviously that Chepstow defeat of Alexei has worked out rather well and he looks like getting his favoured decent ground, but against that he is only rated 144 (the lowest in the field, for all he carries no penalty) and maybe 6s is just fair, and not generous.
On balance, I’m happy to see Wodhooh win unbacked at [6/5] for me, with no pressing need to take him on each-way.
It doesn’t look a good each-way betting race to me, with eight plausible contenders for two places at the traditional 1,2,3 betting terms.
Nemean Lion is a NR as at 12.48am (going), so just eight runners now.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: The 6s about Celtic Dino on Friday morning wasn’t just fair, it was very generous, it seems, as Celtic Dino is one of the big morning movers into 3s.
No doubting, Thomas….and he is now just 5/2 as at 9.25am. He surely can’t get that much shorter, and maybe this is one of those morning over-reactions. Who knows?
He is just [9/4] at 11.40am, though.
And as low as [7/4].
Wodhooh is out to [11/8], and is set to get bigger, so I’d hold on for at least 6/4 if you fancy her.
She has now hit [13/8] in a place.
In truth, a shrug-your-shoulders renewal of the Betfair Chase.
I’ve been to a few classics of this race down the years – Imperial Commander trading at 4s on in the photo in 2009, only to be chinned by Kauto Star (the camera can lie), and the legend doing three laps of honours to a six-deep standing ovation in the paddock after his fourth win in 2011 – and this ain’t one, let’s be honest.
I also think it has been priced up accurately too, as I have no real issue with [5/6] Grey Dawning – the [11/10] and evens went earlier – and [7/2] Haiti Couleurs, as I think the winner will come from that pair.
There have been a few early nibbles for the Browns’ runner-up Stellar Story from 12s into 9s but, big race of the day or not, I see no reason to get involved.
If I had to get stuck in, I’d back Haiti Couleurs, as the trainer is a stone-cold fox and she has a seriously progressive chaser on her hands (admittedly, he needs to step up again here a good deal) who will have been sharpened up by an unexpected, perhaps, win over hurdles at the start of the month.
You’d certainly like to see the stable in better form though, for all they don’t have many runners, so, to that end, they have just had a very welcome 3-1 winner at Chepstow.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: The two for the early money are Haiti Couleurs and Handstands, into 11/4 and 11/2 respectively as at 9.25am.
Grey Dawning, top at 5/6 on Friday evening, is out to 11/10.
Royale Pagaille is the weak one at the moment – connections there would have been hoping for more than 4mm overnight and is out to 12s.
Now, I thought this was one tricky 2m1f handicap.
Once again, I could see an each-way case for all 10 in this, and maybe chief among them [15/2] and [7/1] poke Kotmask.
On the face of it, he should be double those odds after that Fontwell return last month (and I actually think he was earlier in the week, so maybe I have completely missed the boat here) but that may have been a means to an end – and the end may be this race again.
He has won around here and most of his best efforts have been at this track, including when a 2 ½ length third to Martator in this contest last season.
He is 5lb better off with the winner (who he subsequently finished second to here on his following start) and he probably has another good run in him.
But, in the final analysis, the general 7s was not anywhere near big enough after that Fontwell run, which didn’t exactly scream “he will go close next time”.
Anyway, I think he will drift, so I can hardly stick him up now.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: As expected, Kotmask is currently as weak as a baby’s piss and is now a more realistic 12s, so I have played very small. Former rogue Teddy Blue is into 7/2 – what a job Derham has done with him – and nibbles for Shakeyatailfeather into 10s despite being 2lb wrong.
This season, everyone seems to have really latched on to just how good Sam Thomas is when producing a horse after a lay-off, and unfortunately you can include the bookmakers in the fan club, too.
His Shomen Uchi ranges from [7/2] to [5/1] in this and he has clearly been a very tricky horse to train, as this is just his seventh start as an 8yo.
He “got a leg” after winning at Chepstow in March 2023 and the next time we saw him was at Carlisle in February 2025, when he won a 2m4f four-runner novices’ chase over 2m4f. Presumably he had another problem afterwards.
Thomas will have this horse tuned up for this race, as you can’t have fragile horses being half-cocked for their return – and he wears a first-time tongue-tie too here – and I thought an opening mark of 135 was okay.
He steps up markedly in trip here to 3m1f+, but he is a half-brother to the stable’s smart 3m2f winner Katate Dori, so that could be a positive, and I thought 5s was fair, for all the obvious doubt (s).
I may have a small win-only bet on him. This race does have a lot of hardier souls in it, not least the 2023 winner Famous Bridge and four other last-time-out winners, so he won’t have it easy.
SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Konfusion, now favourite in most lists at 4s, and Saladins Son, now 9/2 tops, are the two for the early money. I imagine this has been very lightly-traded, though
I intend to do a Beefy Botham betting update tomorrow morning (these early-morning Ashes starts are a piece of piss for my sleeping patterns, though the attraction of watching cricket is less appealing), so hopefully I will find further (or indeed, some/any) inspiration in the next 24 hours.
Until then, pop pickers.
CRICKET BETTING UPDATE: England are fooked (Aussie are no offers), so I imagine Beefy is sulking on Aussie TV somewhere…
Going: Good, good to soft in places
Going Stick: Chase: 5.2; Hurdle: 5.0 (readings may be affected by Vertdraining following the last meeting).-
Soil moisture: 36%. Readings taken at 8am Saturday
Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight with temp down to -0.7c, now at 4.5c at 6.30am Saturday. 5mm rain/snow recorded on Wednesday. 6mm rain recorded over the past 7 days to Saturday morning. Light rain/showers forecast through today, rain expected from about 8am. For access to our weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (latest yr.no forecast): 6.4mm Saturday;
Watering: Watered 10mm on Tuesday
GOING – Hurdle: Good to soft, soft in places; Chase: Good to soft, soft in places
Going Stick: 5,2, Saturday 6.55am
Rails: One Fit Padded hurdles in use moving forward. Separate bends: Stables bend on innermost line, east bend out 10yds. Fences and hurdles are set on their outermost configuration in the back straight.
Saturday morning course update: 27mm last Friday. 16mm Tuesday. Frosty dry mornings this week. 4mm Friday overnight and due light rain until mid-morning. Saturday max temperature 8°C.
Weather (yr.no latest): 1-2mmm more to come Saturday
GOING: Soft to heavy
Saturday morning course update – 22 November 7.51am – Following 9mm of rain overnight, Punchestown remains soft to heavy. Mainly dry today. Fog minimal at present & due to clear between 10am & 11am. Possibility of 10-15mm (approx) of rain overnight. Windy with passing showers tomorrow
Latest Yr.no Weather: dry through racing but more to rain to come after that
2.25pm Haydock: Doctor Kildare
Joe Tizzard cheekpieces; JPR One, 3.15pm Ascot; 2-19
1.15pm Haydock: The Four Sixes, Milldam, Andashan
1.30pm Ascot: Pic D’orhy, Jango Baie, Il Est Francais, Gidleigh Park
1.50pm Haydock: The Jukebox Man, Butch
2.10pm Punchestown: Glen Kiln, Irancy, Lossiemouth
2.25pm Haydock: Navajo Indy, Electric Mason, Ace Of Spades, Esprit Du Potier
2.40pm Ascot : NO OBVIOUS PACE
3pm Haydock: Grey Dawning, Haiti Couleurs, Handstands, Royale Pagaille
3.15pm Ascot : Calico, Sans Bruit
3.35pm Haydock: Top Of The Bill, Duke Of Deception, Konfusion, Saladins Son
The man in form in a very crowded field: Joseph Tizzard
Good: Olly Murphy, Dan Skelton, Chris Gordon (an early double at Haydock today), Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Ben Pauling, Charles Byrnes. Robbie Llewellyn (five runners; one 20-1 winner, so probably fair given sample), Sam Thomas (very good), Gordon Elliott, Parkinson and Smith (very good), Anthony Honeyball, Willie Mullins, Kerry Lee (three runners; one 22-1 winner), Harry Derham, Gary and Josh Moore, Nicky Henderson. Jamie Snowden (excellent in fact), Tom Symonds (small sample but excellent), David Pipe (double on Friday), Nicky Richards (very good), Russell and Scudamore
Fair: Brian Ellison (22-1 winner on the flat on Thursday), Paul Nicholls (edging good perhaps), Fergal O’Brien, Evan Williams (maybe moderate), Sam England, S Crawford, Rebecca Curtis (welcome 3-1 winner at Chepstow on Friday)
Moderate: Greenall and Guerriero (3-1 winner on Friday though, albeit in a race in which only two finished), Emma Lavelle (two horses on Friday ran well, though), Venetia Williams, David Harry Kelly (small sample), Alan King (couple of recent seconds), Harry Fry (20-1 winner on Friday eased the pain, though)
Don’t know: Tom George, Sophie Leech
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