By Tony Calvin - 21 September 2026
Just the 15 five-day entries for this 7f fillies’ nursery (it could have held a maximum of 20 runners on the day), but most importantly no prices yet, as at 8.22am on Tuesday.
Four of the 15 have alternative entries this week – Bymiddaytomorrow, Iris Olivia (has a Thursday entry, as well as three weekend options – so we will know by 10am today if she goes down the midweek route), Marsala and Miss Miniver.
In fact, it looks like Iris Olivia is going to run at Pontefract on Thursday (she has been declared), so don’t back her ante-post when prices do appear.
Newmarket are set to water 8mm today but it is a dry week and, if they don’t over-do the irrigation, I expect good to firm ground by the weekend.
That could scare a few trainers off, although it shouldn’t.
Actually I have just seen that one firm has priced this up – rather defensively, shall we say.
Charlie Appleby’s twice-raced Dannahue (I assume he is allowed to run his horses despite the death of Sheikh Ahmed Rashid Al Maktoum on Monday?) is the 2/1 favourite , with another six horses thrown in between 5s and 8s.
Is the favourite even qualified after just the two starts?
Be The Standard, Commander’s Intent, Principality, Sword Maker and Yorkshire could go elsewhere this week in this 19-runner 1m handicap.
But only a few firms (four) have priced up the Haydock ante-post races, so I will move on for now.
The sponsors have priced it up and they make Centigrade, who ran poorly in Listed company at Sandown last week, their early 4/1 favourite, with 8s bar (five horses are priced up at 8s).
Another firm has Centigrade and Inspired as their 5/1 joint favourites; the betting generally looks pretty tight here.
I imagine the ground will remain soft at the very best here come Saturday.
Aachen, Aix La Chapelle, Alfred Wallace, Drumbeat, Haffner and Hmas Perth are still in the early-closing Beresford Stakes at the Curragh this weekend, so I’d hold fire before getting involved in this 13-strong Royal Lodge Stakes.
We will know who has confirmed for the Beresford on Tuesday afternoon (see below).
In addition, Rocket Boy (the 7/1 fourth favourite) also has the option of a conditions race at Epsom on Sunday.
Little wonder that only two outfits have priced this up at 9am then, with First Law stuck in at 7/4 and Burning Up at 5/2.
At least they are not entered elsewhere this week.
As at 10.48am, Burning Up is now 7/4 and First Law at 4s.
Someone thinks they know something, albeit this market could have been shifted for pennies.
Even so, First Law’s trainer/ownermate Quest For Stars, third in the Group 1 Golden Fleece at the DRF, is 5s from 20s and 16s....
Aachen, Aix La Chapelle, Alfred Wallace, Drumbeat, Hmas Perth and Rocket Boy are still in other races at the weekend.
Only four bookmaking outfits have priced this up as of the above timestamp.
Once again, some firms are not exactly enticing punters in how they have framed their market for this 20-runner 5f handicap.
One has 12 horses priced up between 5s and 10s, and five between 5s and 7s, ffs.
And plenty of those quoted in single figures have double entries: they are Ancient State , Fandom, Golden Long, I’m Next, Kanishka, Rhythm N Hooves, So Darn Hot and Trilby.
Golden Long and Ancient State are the two at the top of the market, in fact.
Just the eight in the Cheveley Park at the five-day stage – so we are obviously each way 1/4 1,2 terms – and Alwaysanangel (9/4 favourite for the Rockfel on Friday) and Snowing (entered in a Group 3 on Sunday) could go elsewhere.
In fact, Alwaysanangel was not confirmed for the Rockfel on Wednesday morning.
But this is all about three horses if you believe the betting, with Sun Goddess at 6/4, Senorita Bonita at 7/4 and Libertango at 4s.
Now, even I’d be tuning in live if all three of those rock up (luckily, Exeter Chiefs v Gloucester doesn’t kick off until 3.05pm…).
Direct formlines tie in those three – and more besides.
Libertango beat Sun Goddess by a length in the Albany before being beaten 3/4 length by Senorita Bonita in the Duchess Of Cambridge (with Alwaysanangel a short-head away in third) and then chinning Star Of State, who subsequently mopped up easy sales race moolah (152 bags) at the Curragh, albeit unimpressively at 5s-on, by 1/2 length in the Lowther last time.
A web of direct formlines, then.
But of course Sun Goddess and Senorita Bonita have posted some serious Group 1-winning figures since, which have earned them official marks of 119 and 117 respectively.
Sun Goddess was ridiculously impressive in the 7f Moyglare last time (Controlla last of six) but I just wonder if Morny winner Senorita Bonita will have too much toe for her over 6f on quick ground.
The Crisfords’ filly really went whoosh at Deauville in a great time, even if runner-up Carry The Flag subsequently bombed out at Doncaster.
There is no need to get involved now though – unless you know that a big no-show is coming…
Carry The Flag and Force Noir are entered elsewhere, and Marco Polo was a NR at Fairyhouse on Monday (off feed).
But as Force Noir has been supplemented for 20k (he is a 50s poke, so a bold call…), you can be pretty sure he is coming here, though he is still in the Goffs Million at the Curragh on Saturday.
Aidan O’Brien has five of the 11 in this Middle Park then, including the current ante-post favourite Great Barrier Reef (ranges from 2s to 5/2) , but it is by no means a stranglehold, as you can stick up a whole load up against him.
Well, at least four.
Indeed, 11/2 poke Push The Boat Out beat him a neck (albeit getting 5lb) in a Group 3 at the Curragh last time.
Inner City Blues and Orthodox are clearly big players too but this surely revolves around whether Folsom Blues turns up.
It does for me, anyway.
I know it was 7f with some dig, so this will be an entirely different test, but he travelled all over them from some way out when a dominant 6-length winner in the National Stakes last time and he is the clear class angle on that outstanding effort (he has been given a very lofty mark of 122 in Ireland).
But a price of 4s, and a point bigger in a highly illiquid exchange market, perhaps advises caution?
They may well keep him back for the Dewhurst here in a fortnight.
The Irish betting mafia will know before me…
Thirty-five confirmations for the Cambridgeshire, so we will have a full field if they all stand their ground on Thursday morning….
Commander’s Intent, Principality, Parole d’Oro, El Matador, Nizam and First Ambition could go elsewhere though, and fast ground could deter a few.
John and Thady Gosden are responsible for the officially best handicapped horse in the field in Harmonics, 4lb well-in after his Group 3 third at Windsor last time, but the market is strongly indicating their Gavriel has unofficially more in hand, being the 9/2 favourite.
He is “only” 2lb well-in after his Ascot win last time but the runner-up Balzac won at Newbury last weekend and there is little doubt Gavriel could be far too sexy for his shirt after just the four runs.
He also represents a stable that have won this race a few times with subsequent Group 1 winners – Lord North won this off 98 as the 9/2 favourite in 2019, after only four starts – and Gavriel has the pedigree too, being by Frankel out of the Group 1-winning Thistle Bird, so his chance is obvious.
But, as regards an ante-post betting proposition, the price is no giveaway now and the draw and pace can play a big factor in a huge field in this race.
I personally won’t be getting involved seriously until I see the draw and pace map – and you can also bet your bottom dollar you will get enhanced places (you may not be able to get on but I imagine you may get six or seven) once the final field is known on Thursday.
As it is all bookmakers are 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4 – so the each-way angle is surely a no-no at the moment, unless you think the price about your fancy will crash, or at the very least compensates.
I am surprised at least one firm hasn’t gone five places to drum up some ante-post interest.
But they haven’t.
Tycoon at 40/1 is worth a small win-only investment though, now.
And probably an each-way press-up on Thursday once we have all the facts to hand at 33s or bigger.
And, indeed, once we see if he is actually running.
He isn’t jocked up at the time of writing and David Egan is currently on Hard Endeavor, so I have played very small for now.
He may be 1lb wrong here but I thought he could have gone close to winning if he had got any racing room when fourth under 7lb claimer Toby Moore at Yarmouth last week and he has good course and distance form here from earlier in the season on quick ground.
He was beaten only a neck and 1/2 length by Erzindjan and Fifth Column here in May – coming out best of those who raced on the far side – and he can race off a 1lb lower mark here.
I’d say 40s is overpriced (he is a general 33s to be fair) on what I saw here in early summer, and at Yarmouth last week. So I have played small win-only.
He is not as sexy as Gavriel, but hopefully he can win ugly.
I quite like 14/1 poke Erzindjan from an each-way perspective but, as I said above, you are better off waiting here. Four places may be traditional each-way terms but you’ll beat that and then some on Thursday late morning onwards.
Provided you have the relevant accounts, obviously.
It’s a big day of racing at Newmarket on Saturday.
On Monday morning, there were 73 entries in the Cambridgeshire, 41 in the Royal Lodge, 19 in the Cheveley Park and 15 in the Middle Park.
Back later with how many of those stand their ground.
It is September 22nd tomorrow – and they are still watering to the tune of 8mm at Newmarket (where it is good, good to firm in places)!
No such worries at Haydock where it is soft, heavy in places.
As of Tuesday morning, the current forecast for the week for Newmarket remains dry and pretty warm, hence the watering, but there is now 4mm+ for Wednesday and Friday at Haydock.
There are now 13 in the Royal Lodge (Aidan has six), 8 in the Cheveley Park (Aidan has two and Joseph has two), 11 in the Middle Park (Aidan has five) and 35 in the Cambridgeshire (for a maximum field of 35).
Aidan has a massive say in whether the Group races will get the all-important seven confirmations for World Pool considerations.
Amo have supplemented Force Noir into the Middle Park for 20k.
GOING : Good (good to firm in places disappeared after Tuesday’s watering)
GOING STICK : 6.7 , Wed 8am (was 7.8, Monday 8am)
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry forecast with daytime temperatures of 23c on Wednesday, before reducing slightly for racing.
Weather (6.17am Wednesday): Dry and warmish and sunny all week, 19-23 degrees; occasional light shower perhaps
Watering: 8mm applied on Tuesday.
GOING : Soft, good to soft in places
GOING STICK : 5.2, Wed 8am
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 78mm this month, 6mm on Friday, 2mm Saturday. Dry Tuesday. Chance of 3mm this morning receding on radar: 0.2mm up to 08.00am. Dry & sunny outlook Thursday. Overcast Friday. Max temperature 19°C
Weather (7.44am Thursday): dry Thursday; 2.6mm Friday; 1mm Saturday
GOING : Good
GOING STICK : 5.2, Wed 7.15am
Soil Moisture: 52%
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 1.4mm rain in the past 7 days, dry since Saturday. Forecast: Dry throughout today, turning sunny in the afternoon. Thurs – Dry Fri – Mostly dry, with a chance of light drizzle later in the afternoon (1mm max) 20/21°C.
Weather (6.17am Wednesday): 20-23 degrees all week; looks dry and largely sunny; light showers on occasions maybe
Watering: Watering to maintain
1.22pm Newmarket: Bymiddaytomorrow, Iris Olivia (set to run at Pontefract on Thursday), Marsala, Miss Miniver (set to run on Friday)
1.35pm Haydock: Be The Standard, Commander’s Intent, Principality, Sword Maker, Yorkshire (set to run on Friday)
1.55pm Newmarket : Aachen, Aix La Chapelle, Alfred Wallace, Drumbeat, Hmas Perth, Rocket Boy
2.10pm Haydock (many of these are in the 6f handicap on card at 3.15pm): Ancient State , Fandom, Golden Long, I’m Next, Kanishka, Rhythm N Hooves, So Darn Hot, Trilby
2.27pm Newmarket: Snowing
3pm Newmarket: Carry The Flag, Force Noir
NB: Marco Polo was a NR at Fairyhouse on Monday (off feed)
3.40pm Newmarket: Commander’s Intent, Principality, Parole d’Oro, El Matador, Nizam, First Ambition
MONDAY MORNING As of early on Monday morning, there were 30 in the Dewhurst (Aidan…
As at 11.42am on Sunday morning, AKBets are top price about the first 12 in…
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