TONY CALVIN: MARVELMAN stands out at 10/1 in Sprint Cup – and I like other 10s and 5s pokes, too

3.40pm Haydock – 10/1 Marvelman stands out here

There is no form stand-out in this Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup, but I think Marvelman is the best bet in the race at a current 10/1 in a few places (five in fact).

I appreciate he appears to have been 16s and 14s very early on Monday afternoon after the five-day decs were known – whether they were stale, leftover-prices from the weekend/early this morning when markets should have been closed while confirmations were made pre-midday, I am not so sure – but let’s live in the real world here and concentrate on generally available prices.

And the 10s in five places on the Oddschecker grid, as this goes live at 1.44pm on Monday, looks plenty juicy enough.

I can see him going off near-favourite at the weekend, or at least shortening up a fair bit from 10s.

It looks likely to be soft at a minimum on Haydock on Saturday judging from the current going and forecasts (I am not sure what the ground will ride like there after three day’s of racing, though they will try to keep a fresh strip back, I imagine) and that will suit Marvelman, all right.

Though perhaps we shouldn’t go overboard on the ground for him.

Officially, he ran well twice on heavy as a 2yo and won the Park Stakes by nearly 4 lengths over 7f at Doncaster last season (he is still in that early-closer this term on September 12, which hopefully won’t be a barrier to him running here – though that’s not a double entry as such) on soft.

But Timeform only having him running on heavy once – and they called the Doncaster ground as good.

And boy was he good that day.

So good to soft would be fine, if it comes to that.

The ground has eased to soft as of Tuesday morning.

What you cannot deny/argue about is that he ran a screamer when third in the 7f City Of York Stakes last time, making the running in that 7f contest and sticking on remarkably well to finish third to proper horses like Notable Speech and Lake Forest, and forcing the pace over 6f in testing conditions must surely suit.

He was coming off a four month break and was giving the winner 5lb when a 1 1/2 length second to Paborus in the 6f Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle in late June.

That York run on good to soft was a career-best and that makes him the joint third highest-rated  horse in here on a mark of 117, just 2lb behind Almeraq and 1lb behind Comanche Brave, who sounds like a likely non-runner at the moment if it stays soft, but that is very much TBC.

Any 10s or 9s looks very tempting, even for an ante-post denier like myself.

I have had to make do with 9s, but there is still 10s available as at 5.18am on Tuesday, which surprises me.

Four of these are in a 6f Listed race at York on Sunday (see below – they include the 6/1 chance Kind Of Blue, runner-up in the race in 2024 and 2025, so you imagine he comes here).

It could well just be back-up in case Haydock is called off.

 

2.50pm Kempton – This market is all around the place – so what runs?

The early market was all around the place for this 1m4f Group 3 September Stakes.

And still is, at 3.35pm on Monday.

Obviously some firms are not exactly rolling out the red carpet percentage-wise, but Gethin ranges from 7/4 to 11/4.

Bay City Roller is 7/4 in place but 9/2 elsewhere.

Pride Of Arras is 3s or 11/2 depending where you can shop.

Tornado Alert is 6s or 10s.

Some nag called Constitution Hill is priced between 8s and 12s.

And I haven’t even mentioned three horses rated 113 and 112, and the up-and-coming handicapper Smart Fry.

Let’s take a pull – in more ways than one

This promises to be a sensational race if most of them rock up, and I don’t see much point in saying take the stand-out 9/2 Bay City Roller myself. If you haven’t got access to that one firm, then he doesn’t become a bet anymore.

I have no idea of firm running plans myself, so maybe let’s ease up on the hype and expectation for the time being, shall we?

And ramp it up when we know the final field on Thursday morning.

Some of these may be put off by the depth of the race, or other options.

 

1.25pm Haydock – 5/1 Needle Match is worth the risk

If I knew the intention was to run Needle Match in this 1m Group 3 race, come what may ground-wise, I’d be very tempted to have a proper crack at him at 5s (as at 7pm on Monday).

Given what I have said above about price availability, I should point out the 5s is only available with two firms and they are the same outfits.

So if you have had a red card from them, then this preview will be no of use…

As for Needle Match, even though he won on soft ground on his sole start at two (actually Timeform called it heavy), I’d be worried about what William Haggas will do if the Haydock ground turns really deep on Day 3 of the meeting (all races are run on the inner course at the meeting).

But, even so. I would have him as clear favourite for this race at this stage ahead of form horse Dancing Gemini.

He clearly shaped very well in the Greenham before Haggas took an uncharacteristic swing at the Guineas on fast ground just a fortnight later (I backed him there), and it backfired.

But he gave the horse plenty of time afterwards and I thought he shaped with immense promise from off the pace when second at Leopardstown at the start of August, on ground Timeform called good to firm.

Will the trainer run him on heavy here though, especially as he also has the horse in a Group 2 at the same Irish track next week? Now, he presumably has Needle Match back where it wants him, would he take the risk of pitching him in on such deep ground again?

That obviously concerns me from an ante-post perspective.

I may try and get the 5s ante-post and have a small win-only bet – and take a small dose of medicine if he doesn’t run – and have a far bigger press-up if he runs on the weekend.

I did manage to get some of that 5s.

The horse has clearly got bags of potential and I’d fancy him to take care of these, even though it looks a strong enough Group 3, and maybe I am overthinking the ground.

Especially as the forecasts are subject to a lot of change.

 

1.55pm Haydock – Don’t back Burning Up ante-post

Burning Up was priced up between 5/4 and 7/4 for this 1m Listed race, despite also holding an entry at the track on Thursday.

And he has duly been confirmed to run under a penalty in a novice on Thursday, so don’t back him ante-post for this race, obviously.

It is admittedly difficult what bookmakers can/should do in these situations as he could still run on the weekend – and the horse runs in the colours of Bow Echo, who this race is named after and who won this contest last year, so there could be a late change of heart – but knocking him out to 5s from 5-4 is questionable as the unknowing may get drawn in (now 8s).

I’d be holding on to see what the weather does here full stop, as trainers may be keen avoid very deep ground with their juveniles.

It stands to reason that the 13/8 about First Law may now disappear, but will he run? He won on good to firm at Sandown on his debut.

Rocket Boy has been cut into 7/4 from 5s.

 

Hannon has three entries but he is in woeful form

The Richard Hannon pair of Dover Street and Camarda Rc are also in early-closers next week.

Hannon also has Rafe’s Da Man in here but the stable are in woeful form, with 6 winners from 105 runners in August, and he hasn’t had one for well over a fortnight going in Tuesday’s racing.

Of course, some have run well in defeat but he is a numbers trainer.

If Dover Street made a quick reappearance after his Solario Stakes second last week (on ground Timeform called soft), he’d be the one to beat – he is now rated 102 after that run – and a bet at 8s. He shapes as if a mile will suit, too.

But will they back him up, with the option of giving him more time and sending him to Donny next week for a 300k sales race?

No idea.

For what it is worth (probably nothing), Sean Levey is currently jocked up on the other two.

 

2.30pm Haydock – 11 of the 14 in this 100k handicap have alternative engagements

Just the 14 runners at the five-day stage for this 100k 1m6f handicap that could have housed 17 on the day.

A very disappointing turn-out with horses rated only between 72-99.

And, as you can see below, 11 of the 14 are doubly entered this week.

That whittles it down to three in my book from an ante-post perspective – Andrew Balding’s pair of Level Look and Mythical Bay, and Reem Rak.

Unsurprisingly, only two bookmakers have priced this up, so we can leave this alone for now.

 

3.05pm Haydock – 10/1 Stressfree looks a very solid each-way option

None of the other ante-post races interest me but we should give the 100k Old Borough Cup a brief spin – especially as Stressfree looks a decent each-way shot at 10s quarter the odds 1,2,3,4.

He is a heavy ground (handles better ground equally well) and course winner who comes in here on the back of a solid sixth in the Ebor last time, and he can race off a 2lb lower mark here.

He flashed home when a neck and a 1 1/4 length third in this race last season off a 5lb higher mark – a performance that can be marked up because of his track position on the near side – and he looks to be a very decent ante-post play here.

I’ve backed him, and am reasonably sweet on his chances.

 

RECOMMENDED ANTE-POST

 

Needle Match at 5/1 in 1.25pm Haydock

Stressfree at 10/1 each way, four places, in 3.05pm Haydock

Marvelman at 10/1 in 3.40pm Haydock

———

Sunday

There are currently 27 in Haydock’s Group 1 Sprint Cup.

It looks set to be soft/heavy there, and it’s a three-day meeting, too.

It is 6s the field if you are allowed to shop around, with Almeraq the favourite (as low as 7/2 elsewhere).

Monday

We are now down to 13 five-day entries at Haydock, with no Aidan O’Brien representative. Almeraq is now 10/3 tops.

Constitution Hill is one of 14 entries for the September Stakes at Kempton, and he faces several tasty 110+ opposition, led by the 124-rated Bay City Roller.

And remember Constitution Hill is rated only 101 on the Flat – so far.

He potentially has a very big job on here, as I imagine his odds will reflect when the race is priced up (he is 12s with the first firm up).

 

COURSE DETAILS

HAYDOCK (three day meeting)

GOING : Soft

GOING STICK : 5.6, Wednesday 8.15am

Rails: All races will be run on the Inside course. All rail has been moved into fresh lines since August 8th racing and the home-straight returns to full width.

WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 5mm Wednesday. 10mm Thursday. 5mm Friday. 10mm Saturday. 4mm Sunday. 2mm Monday. Dry since Monday afternoon. Outlook Rain (+10mm) today. Mostly dry Thursday daytime. Daily max temperature 20°C

Weather (2.39pm Wednesday):   3.8mm Wednesday; 9.9mm Thursday; 10mm Friday; 1.1mm Saturday (has been fluctuating through week)

 

KEMPTON (two day meeting)

GOING : Standard to slow

Stalls: Inside

WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: Broken Showers

Weather: light showers, if anything

 

ASCOT (two day meeting – watering a lot; see below)

Following track renovations since the last meeting recovery has been a little slow and there are some patches of young grass with a less dense sward.

GOING : Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK: None posted since last Friday

WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry for the past 24 hours to 7.30am on Wednesday. 8mm rain recorded through the past week. It is due to be generally dry through to Thursday when an occasional shower is possible through to Friday night. Saturday now looks to be dry. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

WATERING:  Watering 5mm on Straight course on Wednesday. Watered 8mm on Straight Course on Monday and 5mm on Round Course on Monday night.

Weather (7.44am Wednesday):  light showers, if anything

 

FIVE-DAY PACE MAPS

1.25pm Haydock: Balmacara, Fondo Blanco (prom), Skukuza (prom), The Lost King (prom), Oxagon, Hankelow

1.40pm Ascot: Fondo Blanco (prom), Northern Express, He’s A Monster, Stellar Sunrise (prom) , Ghost Mode, Mubasimah,  Humam, Sword

1.55pm Haydock: Mobadir, Narrjoo, Rafe’s Da Man, Theheatison

2.10pm Ascot: Evanesco, Golden Story, Archers Bay, Guildmaster, Ancestor, Turty Tree, Cape Fear, Kahin, Lord d’Or

2.20pm Kempton: The Lost King (prom), Percy’s Lad, Dingle, I’m Workin On It, First Ambition, Breakdancer, Sea Founder

2.30pm Haydock: Guildmaster (prom), Galilean Quality?, Ancestor, Mythical Bay, Asia Force, High Storm, King Of Berkshire, Level Look

2.50pm Kempton: Bay City Roller (sounds a NR), Arabian Crown, Gethin (prom), Pride Of Arras, Tornado Alert (prom)

3.05pm Haydock: Fantasy World, Aegean Prince, Square Necker, Finalise, Galiliean Quality?, Hermetic (prom)  , Kissmehoneyhoney

3.40pm Haydock: American Affair (prom), Big Mojo (prom), Double Rush (prom), James’s Delight (prom), Marvelman, Coppull (prom)

 

DOUBLE ENTRIES (far too many of them again – too many options)

1.25pm Haydock:  The Lost King, Fondo Blanco, Extremely Zain

NB: Colori Forever and Needle Match are in an early-closer next week

1.40pm Ascot: Lord Britain, Bobby Bennu, Brian, Collecting Coin, Divine Libra, Fondo Blanco, Garfield Shadow, He’s A Monster, Hickory (due to run on Friday), Houquetot, Humam, Northern Express, Pinatubo’s Legacy, Superposition, Sword, The Fingal Raven, Witch Hunter (due to run on Friday)

1.55pm Haydock: Burning Up (set to run at Haydock on Thursday)

NB: Dover Street and Camarda Rc are in early-closers next week

2.10pm Ascot: Ancestor, Besieged, Bridge Of Eagles, Glory Road, Guildmaster, Kahin, Lopeo, Lord d’Or, Pierre Grosse

2.30pm Haydock: Ancestor, Bridge Of Eagles, Glory Road, Guildmaster, Lopeo, Pierre Grosse, Asia Force,  Cotton Bud, Galilean Quality, High Storm, King Of Berkshire

2.50pm Kempton: Paddy The Squire, Bay City Roller

3.05pm Haydock: Paddy The Squire, Galilean Quality, Golden West, Hermetic, Kissmehoneyhoney, Pinatique

3.20pm Kempton: Breakdancer, Exposure, Final Night, Lake Como, Lord Britain, Port Road, The Lost King, Victory Ace, Witch Hunter (due to run on Friday), Zoffandia (set to run on Thursday)

3.40pm Haydock: Aramram, Double Rush, Kind Of Blue, Division

NB: American Affair, Comanche Brave, Marvelman, Mitbaahy, Coppull and Division are in early-closers next week