By Tony Calvin - 25 September 2026
Sierra Belle, the favourite, was a NR at 8.16am (bad scope).
The numbers for this 7f fillies’ nursery held up well from the overnight stage , and 11 go to post, as it stands.
Incidentally, the horse that was the 2/1 ante-post favourite for this race turned out not to even be eligible – I hope whoever backed that one (Dannahue) got their money back.
I thought Kiah was the overpriced one in here at the general 16s in a place and a general 14s, for all this is a race in which you expect several will spring forward form-wise.
We will get a better handle on the worth of Kiah’s second to Spirited Guest (very weak in the betting) after the Rockfel today – no positives there, then – but, regardless, I wouldn’t be downbeat by her last of four in a 1m Lingfield maiden last time.
The time was decent for the grade, she was beaten less than three lengths , she got dropped 2lb for it, and a mark of 76 looks fair on the balance of her form, and Brian Meehan continues in fair nick of late (and that is not always the case).
The runner-up from the Lingfield race comfortably won a nursery at Goodwood off 78 earlier in the week, and the third ran well at Pontefract on Thursday.
The 16s in a place and general 14s is fair, with the step back down to 7f expected to suit.
I may have a small bet but I haven’t decided yet.
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.56am): Fire Thunder was 7s yesterday and is now 9/2 pretty much across the board but, predictably, just 7/2 in the place that are offering four places – that firm are not even bold type , or joint best, on any of the 11 runners in here.
Marsala was 16s in a place yesterday morning, though 12s and 10s was a more representative price, and is now 8s best.
Both of those shorteners are currently a point bigger win-only on a Betfair market that has only done 11k.
Sierra Belle remains favourite there. Not now though as she is a NR as at 8.16am with a bad scope.
Godwinson is a NR at 12.07pm (cut leg).
Watch the ground and NRs.
Haydock have missed most of the rain so far this week, and there seems only light showers in the offing now.
So what was looking like possibly heavy earlier in the week could now become good to soft on Saturday.
But maybe not (see below).
The ground was changed to heavy, soft in places, late on Friday, so expect NRs.
This is a good 1m handicap for the money (45k) and Centigrade, something of a talking horse it seems, currently just edges favouritism at 7/2 over Eternal Force at 4s.
Centigrade is a bit of a curious one. He shaped well enough from off the pace at York (2lb lower here) – he didn’t look too willing to my eye though – but ran very underwhelmingly when sent off 4/1 for a Listed race at Sandown last week; 7/2 looks a bit too skinny to me.
As does Eternal Force, one place behind Centigrade in that York race, as 4s, even though he too has come down 2lb in the weights and wears first-time cheekpieces (William Haggas’ headgear record below).
This looks a tricky race to call.
The 3yos Looka and Commander’s Intent make some appeal at 9s and 11s respectively as the forward-goers in here (Commander’s Intent comes here instead of the Cambridgeshire) but Godwinson looks a decent enough prospect at the generally available 10s each way, to small stakes (the 12s and 11s got taken on Thursday, unfortunately).
The ground is now a concern, though.
The 6yo has hardly ripped it up since landing back-to-back wins for Haggas in 2025, winning the Lincoln and then being rated 104 after the Newcastle win last June.
But he is down to a mark of 96 now after three runs for Jack Channon and there was a bit more promise in his run at Goodwood last time , though he didn’t run too badly in the Hunt Cup before that.
He can be a difficult ride and needs to be produced late – maybe by accident more than design as he can be slowly away – but if the 3yos above can set a decent pace for him to at, then David Probert (who rode him for the first time at Goodwood) has the chance to advertise his skills here on a terrestrial stage.
Hopefully, they’ll be no hard luck stories here in a 10-runner race, two shy of the maximum, and good to soft ground will be fine for him (they may pull him out if it returns to soft, or rides deeper than advertised – watch those Haydock times on Friday).
The ground now worries me after it was changed to soft very early on in the Friday card at Haydock after minimal rain, and then to heavy, soft in places.
Which suggests Friday morning’s good to soft, soft in places, was not accurate.
Either way, Godwinson is now out and Erzindjan is my only bet of the day.
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.04am): Centigrade, 7/2 yesterday, is currently weak and 6s in a place, and Eternal Force is the 4s favourite.
Godwinson (10 to 7s) and Commander’s Intent (11s to 7s) are the strongest currently in the fixed-odds market but this has a long way to run and both of those horses are 9/1+ on Betfair.
Artificial early morning shorteners perhaps – a common theme these days.
Just the seven for the Royal Lodge but a few bookmakers are betting to three places, a fifth the odds. So fair play if you can get on with those.
One of those three places firms offer Quest For Stars at 11/2, and that perhaps looks the best betting proposition in here if you can access.
Someone clearly got the word that he would be joining owner/trainermate First Law in this race earlier in the week as presumably small money was accommodated at 20s and 16s, but the current 11/2 looks fair enough, even if you can only manage win-only.
The form of his Salisbury Listed win has been franked by the placed horses since and he performed well enough in much deeper waters when third to the mightily impressive Darkness Falls in Group 1 company at the DRF.
He is the bet in this race at 11/2 (win only or each way, three places) if you want one and can access.
I can’t, so I’ll sit this one out. You can obviously make a case for all these and Haffner is actually the form horse going into the race.
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.11am): Not a great deal happening here. Burning Up and First Law are currently weak enough at 10/3 joints (the latter is strongest of that pair), with Haffner at 4s. Quest For Stars was 11/2 in two places yesterday (effectively the same firm) but is now a general 4s poke, though there is 9/2 in two places.
All Ways Glamorous is a NR (7.17am- going). Rhythm N Hooves NR (7.20am – going).
It tells you how unattractive Saturday’s ITV racing is from a punting point of view – to these eyes anyway – is that I went all giddy at the prospect of finding a bet in this 5f handicap.
Well, at least there are only 12 runners.
The pace I clocked were the four horses drawn in six to nine, so it makes sense for all the others to congregate behind them and risk their luck in the closing stages with a late pounce.
Initially, I thought this was a good fit for Hucklesbrook from stall three after a back-to-form third to Rhythm N Hooves at Newbury last time.
Roger Teal has his team in great form and Joanna Mason is back on board (she rode the horse when he was the winner of a valuable York handicap last summer off a 2lb higher mark).
The 15/2 would have enticed me – but the ground worries me.
Timeform have him never racing on anything easier than good and I imagine that isn’t a coincidence. Testing ground is surely a no-no for him.
If the times on Friday indicate it isn’t too bad (it is officially good to soft, soft in places) – and I imagine Teal will be on ground watch, too – then I may have a little tickle as he has a lot going for him otherwise.
I will definitely sit this one out though after that going change to heavy, soft in places, during Friday – and I think the horse may be pulled out anyway now (he is out to 13.0 on Betfair as of 9.55pm on Friday).
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.08am): There have been two NRs with small Rule 4s attached (see below), and maybe more to come.
King Of Light is the 11/4 favourite , with Trilby clipped into 4s.
I think Hucklesbrook could be a NR because of the ground; he is currently a weak 12.0 in a Betfair market yet to do 8k.
Sad times.
The six-runner Group 1 Cheveley Park is obviously the race of the day but is it a betting event?
Probably not.
That said, I’d probably be against Sun Goddess at 6/4 over 6f on fast ground, and with the speedier Senorita Bonita at the 2s in a place.
And Libertango is probably too big at 9/2 now, and currently half a point bigger on Betfair.
And Joseph O’Brien clearly wants to roll the big dice with 10s poke Alwaysanangel as she would have had an outstanding chance in the Rockfel, for which she was the ante-post favourite. And 18s chance Moonrise is clearly no mug.
Nah, let’s just watch the race, and hope it lives up to the billing.
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.14am): Sun Goddess is 11/8 from 6/4 (though the latter price is available on the exchange), with Libertango the weak one at 11/2.
The market has yet to catch fire.
For me, a lot of shine was taken off this Middle Park when a horse wasn’t confirmed for this race on Thursday.
No, not the ante-post favourite Great Barrier Reef but the runaway National Stakes winner Folsom Blues.
I appreciate this would have been a much different test than 7f with a bit of dig at the Curragh but, boy, did he have the wow factor that day. I guess we will have to wait until the Dewhurst to see him again.
In his absence, it looks a very winnable Group 1 – by the way, there are no extra places in this seven-runner race – and I don’t have much of an opinion.
But if you forgive Orthodox that run in the Morny last time – Timeform called it good there, against the official soft, so it probably wasn’t the ground that was to blame, though trainer Clive Cox reckons it was – then he is the horse to beat here on his Norfolk Stakes romp on good to firm.
But it’s a lukewarm lean in a modest shrug your shoulders Group 1.
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.16am): Good races are not translating into attractive betting mediums so far, and this race has only done 21k on Betfair as at 8.16am.
Nothing doing, with Inner City Blues trading at 6/4.
Pathein is a NR (ground), so we are down to just 27 runners, eight shy of the maximum.
I don’t like cherry-picking stand-out prices but the 10s (five places) and 9s (six places) about Erzindjan is worth an interest if you can nab those price/place combo terms.
You may have to be quick (the 11s went earlier).
I said earlier in the week that Erzindjan was very much on my radar at 14s when the extra places arrived after the final field was known (the ante-post betting was all 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4, which I found strangely unenticing) but the only problem now they have is that the 14s and 12s about him have all gone.
Best-laid plans and all that.
But the current 10s and 9s each way, as this goes live, is very much acceptable.
Even though low-drawn horses won the day in this race in 2025 and 2024, I’d rather by drawn high here, so Erzindjan being in stall 25 is a positive for me.
An unlucky 1 1/2 length fourth in this race last season from stall 23 – he led them home on the near side, with the first three home were berthed in 6, 3 and 10, with 11 and 7 in fifth and sixth – he won over course and distance here earlier in the campaign and it was an obvious tee-up for this at York last time, even if Ryan Moore was on board.
And he got dropped 1lb for it.
He is only 2lb higher than when fourth in this race last season , when he beat the next horse home on his side by 4 1/2 lengths.
If he doesn’t get shafted by the draw again (always a possibility and the fav is drawn 28 of 28), then he may have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of the first five or six.
I hope so anyway.
I’m off to try and get the 10s. I have had a win-only bet at 12.0 too on Friday evening.
MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.20am): Again, very little movement.
Gavriel is 5s in a place and Erzindjan is 15/2 from 10s, though available at 11/1 win-only.
This market probably won’t get lively until around 3.25pm.
Erzindjan each-way at 10s or 9s in 3.40pm Newmarket (get best place-price combo you can with your accounts)
The races have cut up pretty badly at Newmarket.
Unfortunately, as I half-feared, Tycoon wasn’t confirmed for the Cambridgeshire (28 go there). Apologies – I have no idea why he would have been confirmed on Monday not to turn up.
Elsewhere, Great Barrier Reef, the 5/2 ante-post favourite, is not in the Middle Park final field.
We only have seven there, and another notable absentee is the form horse Folsom Blues.
Just the six in the Cheveley Park, with Star Of State and the rag Controllia coming out.
And just the seven in the Royal Lodge, too – underwhelming stuff at Newmarket from a numbers perspective, then.
GOING : Good to firm
GOING STICK : 7.8, Sat 6am (was 6.6 , Friday 6am)
Stands Side: 7.8, Centre 7.7, Far Side 7.8
SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry forecast with the odd sunny spell, daytime temperature of 20c.
Weather (7.08am Saturday): Dry and warmish and sunny, 19 degrees
Watering: 8mm applied on Tuesday; 3mm applied to the final 10f after racing on Thursday.
GOING : Heavy, soft in places
Feedback it was in a holding condition on Friday & it walked sounder than rode.
GOING STICK : 5.4, Saturday 7am
Round: 5.7
SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 3mm last 7 days. 1mm Wednesday. Persistent drizzle Friday morning. Dry Friday overnight. Dry and sunny spells Saturday. Max temperature Saturday 20°C
Weather (7.08am Saturday): 18 degrees and maybe light showers on Saturday (1.1mm from 11am)
William Haggas cheekpieces; Eternal Force, 1.35pm Haydock; 67-375 (18%) -21.65 pts at SP (+25.01 pts at BSP)
Aidan O’Brien blinkers; Confucius, 3pm Newmarket; 71-416 (17%) -48.36 pts at SP ( +62.01 pts at BSP)
Alan King cheekpieces; Alcarath, 3.40pm Newmarket; (FLAT ONLY) 4-50 (8%) -1.50 pts at SP (+14.50 pts at BSP)
1.22pm Newmarket: Polyxena (drawn 1), Tie A Navyribbon (10), Zephyra (4), Kiah (5), Next Of Kin (3) – Sierra Belle is a NR
1.35pm Haydock: Commander’s Intent (2), Looka (3)
1.55pm Newmarket: First Law (2), Haffner (4), Iwasjustsaying (1), Quest For Stars (6), Quicken Away (5)
2.10pm Haydock: Fandom (8), Ancient State (7), Jel Pepper (6) – All Ways Glamorous and Rhythm N Hooves NRs
2.27pm Newmarket: Moonrise (5), Snowing (likely pacemaker – 4)
3pm Newmarket: Confucius (1), Force Noir (3), Marco Polo (5)
3.40pm Newmarket: Urban Lion (22), Spanish Voice (11), Crest Of Fire? (7), Altareq (1), Salam Dubawi (4), Wanderlust (14) – Pathein is a NR
Superb: Charlie Appleby (all shorties, as most from stable are, but another four-timer on Friday)
Good: William Haggas (22-1 and 9-4 winners on Thursday; and among winners on Friday), Karl Burke (double on Friday), John and Thady Gosden, Brian Meehan, Joseph O’Brien (huge sample), George Boughey, Harry Charlton, Jane Chapple-Hyam (another winner on Thursday), Sam England, Roger Teal (very good), Clive Cox
Fair: Charlie Johnston, Ralph Beckett, Marco Botti (well-backed 15-2 winner on Friday), David O’Meara, Andrew Balding (treble on Wednesday; good/fair – huge sample, too), Roger Varian, George Scott (5-1 winner on Wednesday), Richard Spencer, Richard Hughes (moderate-fair; winner on Wednesday), James Owen, Robson De Aguiar, Simon and Ed Crisford, Adrian Keatley, Michael O’Callaghan, Jack Channon, Ed Dunlop, Ian Williams (28-1 winner on Thursday), Alan King, Jim Goldie, Michael Keady (winner on Thursday), Iain Jardine (80-1 winner on Wednesday and 5-1 winner on Thursday), Robert Cowell, Adam Kirby, Tim Easterby (three winners on Thursday and 12-1 winner on Friday; has a huge number of runners, though)
Moderate:, Ed Walker (moderate-fair; 5/2 winner on Friday), Richard Hannon, Stuart Williams, Aidan O’Brien (6-4 winner on Friday), Adrian McGuinness (on a long losing run), Harry Eustace, Michael Bell, William Knight
Don’t know (small samples): William Stone (small sample but running moderately), TJ Kent, Oli Rix (five runners; one winner), Peter Chapple-Hyam, Chris Mason (1 winner, 6 runners), Philip McBride, Michael Wigham
MONDAY MORNING As of early on Monday morning, there were 30 in the Dewhurst (Aidan…
As at 11.42am on Sunday morning, AKBets are top price about the first 12 in…
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