TONY CALVIN: A 50/1 chance is my wild Cambridgeshire swing on this particular (Beth) page

3.40pm Newmarket: The Cambridgeshire

Going, watering and stick readings

Cash is a NR as 6.48am (going). He ranged between 12s and 16s, so you may have copped a 5p Rule 4.

I was forwarded on a recording of an interview with the Newmarket clerk of the course on ITV this afternoon and he promised going stick readings across the track tomorrow morning.

So well done there.

I’ll update them into this column as soon as I see them.

The current betting bias towards the high-drawn horses may yet turn…

It is up to you if you want to wait on those belated revelations (and let’s be honest here, they should have been available on Thursday morning, latest) before betting – but be aware he also said he is putting on 3mm after racing.

Hopefully, that will be put on evenly, and not positioned to iron out any perceived bias.

And there was me trying to be nice….

I don’t expect Haydock Sprint Cup-like differentials, but facts are never a bad thing when assessing a horse race.

The facts this morning are:  Far Side: 7.9, Middle: 7.8, Stand Side: 7.9

So let’s assess the horse race then – and get 50/1 Savvy at the price

Savvy Victory certainly doesn’t have the sexy vibe of others as a 6yo in seemingly modest form, and one still rated a relatively lofty 101.

But that hasn’t stopped some experienced campaigners winning this handicap in recent seasons – the last 3yo to win this race was actually Lord North, off 98, in 2019 – and I’ll continue to take my chances at the price.

We will leave the fact that this race is 11 shy of its maximum field of 35 for another day (probably Monday on The Racing Room…).

The case that I outlined for him on Tuesday at pretty much 66s across the board now he has drawn stall 14 – it may not be ideal but I’ll take that in this size of field – stands.

As I wrote then, I have backed him at big prices on the last two occasions he has run and I thought he ran a lot better than a 6 ¾-length seventh of 12 at Sandown last time suggested, and I was getting very hopeful at one point as he cruised up – and he really was tanking along – to take the lead 2f out on the far side.

The run soon petered out, though.

Perhaps Colin Keane, still getting to know UK tracks, went too early; perhaps he wasn’t on the best part of the track ground-wise; perhaps it was simply too soft for him; or perhaps it was the combination of 1m2f and testing going on a stiff course that found him out.

Whatever the reason, I took that as proof (of sorts) that he is still capable of being competitive in this grade of handicap as a 6yo (and 6yos have won this race in 2023 and 2021, off marks in the 100s, as I alluded to earlier) and I can see a strongly-run 1m1f race on decent ground suiting him.

I do think a quicker surface, and it is now good to firm at Newmarket, is a fair plus. He has handled soft before but his best efforts have come on good.

His mark of 101 is 3lb lower than his last winning effort in December – though that Newcastle win has admittedly not worked out well – and he has decent previous in this race, having finished a 4-length fifth of 28 in the 2022 renewal. He also finished third in a Feilden here that year.

The stable have had a very disappointing 2025 with only nine winners at a strike rate of a mere five per cent, so it was a positive of sorts (actually it reads a touch desperate) to see Sean Woods net a 10-1 winner, Savvy Stellar, in a three-runner race in the 4.25pm at Southwell earlier in the week. That horse actually runs in the same colours as Savvy Victory.

I have no opinion on 5lb claimer Jack Callan, who is having his second ride for the yard (perhaps dad Neil put in a word), other than his stats this year – 26 winners at a 12 per cent strike rate – look okay.

Decent even, as you’d expect learning from a John Wayne-like master.

He is now a general [40/1] in this much-reduced field (we lost 14 at the overnight stage), and 50s in three places, and that still appeals each way.

Grab the best price-place combination your accounts allow, but remember a bigger price at standard terms, with a quarter the place, can occasionally be the best mathematical play.

But that’s down to you and what you can access. He is still 50s in two places as at 7am.

The other two I was sweet on on Tuesday were Fifth Column at the top of the market at 7s and Real Gain at 16s – they have been berthed in 18 and 22 respectively, so hopefully that high-draw bias reappears after Liberty Lane won from four last season (previous winners came from 28-29-21-29-25-21-26-35) – and that opinion still holds, too.

To an extent.

Incidentally a field of only 24 can obviously change any draw dynamic.

As could be the case when we get those going stick readings across the track tomorrow, in addition to my pace map below.

Fifth Columnist

I’d have Fifth Column as the clear favourite, given his progressive profile and John Gosden’s record in this race with similar types, so 7s is fair, and bigger win-only

This is what I wrote about him on Tuesday.

“Take out his fifth at Goodwood, on probably unfavoured soft ground, and his runs this season read as follows: four wins and a seventh in the Brittania, and he won his race down the middle in that defeat at Royal Ascot.

He went up 5lb for his narrow win at York last time (where he was smashed off the boards) but he posted impressive closing sectionals there and John Gosden is no stranger to winning this race with future Group winners for the Godolphin owner.

Indeed, he took this with Halling in those iconic red and white Sheikh Mohammed colours in 1994 off a mark of just 93, and that horse went on to win the Eclipse and Juddmonte the following year.”

I played him and Real Gain win-only on Tuesday, but the price about Richard Hughes’ horse has now dipped below borderline acceptable after he was trimmed from 16s to a general 12s and 11s on Thursday.

There is some 14s in a place but if you don’t have an account there (plenty will not) it is an irrelevance.

In fact, the 14s has literally just gone as I was formatting this at 4.35pm.

I think the argument for Fifth Column is obvious – a really progressive horse and Big Dad Gozza loves winning this race, and was it really 31 years ago Halling won this in the red and white of Sheikh Mohammed? (I seem to remember watching him win in Paul Kealy’s front room – well on the TV, not in the room itself) – but here is the summary of why Real Gain appeals.

Or appealed, should I say.

Gain perhaps, but too much pain now at just 10/1

Real Gain won over course and distance here in September 2023, scooting in by 5 ½ lengths off a mark of 91, and he looks to be on an attractive enough mark of 95.

He was a huge early drifter on his belated reappearance at Goodwood last month, before being a big late on-the-show mover from 25s to 12s, and he ran a screamer to finish a 2-length third in that 15-runner handicap on officially soft ground (Timeform called it good).

He has to raise his game here off the same mark but the potential is there and he was actually one of the market leaders for this race last season before Richard Hughes pulled him out as he wasn’t happy with him.

It sounds like he is now, but with the 16s and 14s gone, and just 12s on offer – and just 10s as at 7am on Saturday morning – I am going with two off the tee, and not three (I could make it about six with the likes of Marhaba Ghaiyyath and Urban Lion, as most golf tipsters spray it around a bit, I hear…).

Personally, I won’t mind at all if he wins, though if he wants to finish third to my main two then I’ll be happy enough.

The wild swing then – Savvy Victory – and the more hole-able putt of a horse in Fifth Column.

Is it Ryder Cup week, by the way?

BETTING UPDATE, 7.30am – there have been a lot of horses shortened overnight but precious few knocked out. Fort George is the most prominent horse to have been shortened by the books, into [15/2] best and as short as 6s.

THE REST OF THE ITV RACES

1.50pm Newmarket – Pacific Avenue each way at 6s later perhaps – if all eight go

Not a race I am playing at this stage as I am always wary of betting each-way so far out in a dead eight, especially on quickening ground (currently good to firm and it ain’t getting slower despite 3mm of watering yesterday – see going sticks), and that is the way I want to attack this race.

I think the hyped Bow Echo is a touch too short at [7/4] (and he is hyped to a degree, form-wise), as is the [4/1] second-favourite Action (presumably named after my old Racing Post colleague Bruce “Action” Jackson), as the form of his Galway win is nothing flash.

If all eight go, and I can still get 6s or [11/2] – which doesn’t look like being the case on Saturday morning – then surely Pacific Avenue is the angle here, each-way.

He downed his [3/10] stablemate on his debut and then a great (well, good) race in the face of market weakness in the Solario last time.

It was a bunch finish and he could only finish fourth, but he blew the start, didn’t travel kindly in the early stages of the race before buckling down.

He withered a bit close home in ground that may have been too testing for him, but he was still only beaten two noses and a neck and we could see a more accomplished animal here on a quicker surface.

But I won’t be betting until closer to the off, if at all, so I won’t recommend you do.

Feel free to ignore me though; it often pays to.

Daytona has been the biggest mover here, into [11/2] from 8s on Thursday. The Times’ nap no less (regular readers will get that).

These 2yo races at Newmarket look watch-only in the main, and this is probably another to judge from the current betting, with Pacific Avenue a shortener.

2.05pm Haydock – Dark thoughts as King Of Light shortens

It was a case of vanishing prices for me at Haydock.

Very unlike me in sprint handicaps, something initially interested me here, albeit at least it was a fair old price (16s in a few places).

But he isn’t now, as he is into just 9s.

Oh, the horse in question was/is King Of Light, sorry.

These early markets are being badly squeezed by the books (see Cambridgeshire). It is one of the reasons these morning lines are increasingly a Phoney War.

Still, there are far more obvious winners than King Of Light, maybe chief among them last year’s winner Blue Storm (more of him shortly), but it wouldn’t surprise if he won either.

If he drifts back out, I’ll get with him.

Firstly, the handicapper did connections a big favour by dropping him 2lb after a throw-out run in the Portland last time – he lost all chance when rearing up violently leaving the stalls – and this course winner (he won his only start here) has dropped down to a highly exploitable mark of 85, already some 2lb lower than when beaten a neck on his stable debut four starts ago.

Cheekpieces back on

He wears cheekpieces for the first time for Stuart Williams but he ran a good race in them when trained by Karl Burke in May (coming home late, off a 7lb higher mark) and his owner (Posh Tom Morley, who I used to work with at Betfair in the very early days) will be looking for a return on his 70,000 guineas purchase in May.

He may well net £25,770 if he is lucky.

And he tends to be pretty lucky.

The aforementioned Blue Storm has to be of interest here – he was 8s, four places, yesterday – as he shaped well enough on a belated reappearance last time (he had no chance the way the race was run and was dropped 2lb for it) and is now only 1lb higher than for his win in this last year.

He has won second time up off a break three times within the last two years. All is set for a big run but he is only a general [9/2] now, and 5s in a place.

2.25pm Newmarket  – Early market is suggesting we will see the true True Love today

I have no betting opinion in the Cheveley Park but AKBets have (or is it haven’t?) as they are best price about the top five in the market.

I’ve no real issue with how the top four are currently priced and I couldn’t make a particularly convincing each-way case for any of those in double-figures, though I may throw a tenner each-way on Orion’s Belt if someone can get me the 50s.

The big mover here has been True Love, the form horse here on her 5-length defeat of subsequent Group 2 winner Puerto Rico in the Railway Stakes but a tame second in the Phoenix last time (returned mildly lame).

I can fully see the move but she is a walkway price at [5/2] now, unless she drifts back out.

2.40pm Haydock – What went on with Uncle Don’s price on Friday afternoon?

This race looks to have been jocked off the ITV coverage – maybe they wanted more time to celebrate the Group 1 Cheveley Park and Middle Park contests – but I had looked at this 6f handicap anyway, so I’ll give it a few lines.

We have another last-year-winner here in the shape of Woven (has an obvious chance at 4s after that unlucky second in the Ayr Bronze Cup last week) but I thought Uncle Don was the most interesting here at 14s on Friday morning (think he was a little bit bigger on Thursday).

The lightly-raced 3yo had a break and was gelded after finishing last of 14 at Goodwood in May but he shaped well after a three-month absence at Chester last time and he was dropped again for it.

He is now 6lb lower for the mark he was given for a Listed race second at Ayr in September 2024 and he could have too much class for these.

Bizarre chain of events

But I have to flag a bizarre chain of pricing events on Friday afternoon with this horse.

One bookmaking outfit (three firms) suddenly pushed him out to 33s from 14s (four places, too), which was the top price at the time (presumably a bored trader) and the whole marketplace pretty much followed suit, with 25s and 22s also on offer.

I tweeted it about at the time and the unfathomable 33s didn’t last long.

I am not sure what went on there but he is just 10s now, though we have lost Angel Shared and Wheels Of Fire.

I’d love to know what went on if anyone wants to enlighten me.

AKBets are top price about the punted Realign (was 8s and 15/2 on Thursday) and the drifter Woven at 11/4 and 11/2 respectively.

3pm Newmarket – Currently have to go to 7/4 to get Wise Approach in the can

AKBets are top price about seven of the nine here, including the top three in the betting.

I’d rather be against Wise Approach at [5/4] , rather than with him, but I am not sure what you have running for you as a layer.

And you have to go to [7/4] to lay him anyway, so let’s not hear talk of “I’d be a layer at 5/4”.

We all would be.

Pass and watch again.

3.15pm Haydock – Disappearing prices again

My two against the field in this on Thursday night were Tilted Kilt at 14s and Intrusively at 18s, but the price disappeared on both.

To a big degree as they are now a mere 7s and 10s (Hawksbill is a NR)

No thanks.

I was very surprised to see Tilted Kilt open up at 14s and 12s on Thursday then, as everyone saw how unlucky he was here last time and he only got put up 1lb for it.

He wouldn’t be the most consistent but he only just got touched off on his only other course- and- distance run here in May (off a 1lb higher mark).

But even the reduced 10s didn’t last long on Friday and he is into 7s as I hit publish.  That’s his price now, and remember this is a horse that hasn’t won since his debut last June.

Intrusively has also been given every chance by the handicapper, coming down another 2lb in the weights for a perfectly good run at Newcastle last month.

The drying conditions are in his favour and he is now 14lb lower than the mark he was given after running away with a Nottingham maiden last season, albeit at 8s-on.

And when you look at his consistent outings since (one stinker aside at Goodwood in first-time blinkers, though that was in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes to be fair – and remarkably the handicapper dropped him 4lb for a race in which he had no chance in) that really is generous.

Stamina is a big question mark on his first attempt at 1m though, I accept. And that was enough to scare me off on my first draft, as he certainly doesn’t seem to be crying out for an extra furlong on run-style.

However, I slept on it and reviewed his recent runs, searching for any hope he could last out. I was struggling.

One snippet came in his fifth over 7f here in July, off an 8lb higher mark, but now he is 10s I can let the doubts win and pass on the race at the current odds.

SATURDAY’s GOING AND WEATHER DETAILS – updated Saturday morning (NRs added into pace map section as they come in)

NEWMARKET  (3mm applied on Friday evening)

GOING – Good to firm

Going stick: 7.9. 6.30am (was 7.5 Friday)

Far Side: 7.9, Middle: 7.8, Stand Side: 7.9

Rails: Far Side Course in Use

Stalls: Centre

Saturday morning course update: Dry day with the odd sunny spell.

Weather:  Dry

Watering: 4mm applied on Tuesday and 3mm on Friday

HAYDOCK 

GOING – Good to soft, good in places

Soil moisture average: 45%

Going Stick 5,6, Saturday 7,10am (was 5.8, Friday 7am)

Inside: 5.4; Centre 5.3. Outside 5.4

Rails:  All races will be run on the outside course.

• Race 3:Race distance is now +42y to 1m 34y
• Race 4:Race distance is now +42y to 1m 34y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +42y to 1m 34y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +42y to 7f 34y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +36y to 1m 6f 36y

Stalls: 5f & 6f: Centre 7f, 1m & 1m6f: Inner.

Saturday  morning course update: 53mm on Saturday. Saturday mostly dry and overcast before showers later (16.00pm). Max temperature 17°c.Live weather & going: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/haydock/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

Weather:  Dry until 4pm on Saturday (only 4mm)

 

SUPPLEMENTED

1.50pm Newmarket: Bow Echo

3pm Newmarket: Five Ways

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Michael Mullineaux blinkers; Bear Force One, 2.40pm Haydock; 1-41 since 2009

First time for this headgear with this trainer

Stuart Williams cheekpieces; King Of Light, 2.05pm Haydock; 0-34 since 2017

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; with draws attached)

 

1.50pm Newmarket: Action (drawn 6), Humidity (5), Lord Britain (2), Tailgunner Joe (7)

2.05pm Haydock: Tees Spirit (5), Germanic (prominent – 1), All Ways Generous (9), Lethal Nymph (3), I’m Next (6) – Queen’s Guard is a NR

2.25pm Newmarket: Beautify (1), Fitzella (7), Orion’s Belt (2), True Love (8)

2.40pm Haydock: Realign (7), Wild Clary (10), Ingleby Archie (4), Bear Force One (8) (this race now looks to have been kicked off ITV according to the Racing Post, but I have done it, so you are having it) – Wheels Of Fire and Angel Shared are NRs

3pm Newmarket: Coppull (5), Five Ways (2), Hilitany (1)

3.15pm Haydock: Platoon (9), Midnight Gun (11), First Ambition (7), Intrusively (4) – Hawksbill a NR as at 7.56am (going)

3.40pm Newmarket: Boiling Point (6), Urban Lion (19), Fort George (10), Mr Swivell (2), Minster Winston (17), Sir Paul Ramsey (9)

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  John and Thady Gosden, George Boughey, William Haggas, Charlie Appleby,  Roger Varian, Karl Burke, Richard Hughes, Aidan O’Brien, Julie Camacho, Paul Midgley, Roger Fell

Fair: Charlie Johnston, Andrew Balding (borderline good), Joseph O’Brien, Ed Walker (20-1 winner on Thursday), David O’Meara (borderline moderate but a winner on Wednesday), Kevin Ryan, Simon and Ed Crisford (last two runners won going into Thursday, and another on Friday), Sean Woods (perhaps moderate), Rod Millman, Hugo Palmer (borderline moderate), Richard Fahey, Donnacha O’Brien, Richard Hannon (borderline moderate), Clive Cox (borderline moderate), David Simcock (winner on Thursday), Muir and Grassick (another winner on Friday), T J Kent, Michael Bell, David Menuisier, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Oliver Cole (no winners), Iain Jardine, Ed Bethell (winner on Friday), Steph Hollinshead, Nigel Tinkler, Sam England, Tim Easterby (25-1 winner thrown out on Thursday), Hamad Al Jehani, Stella Barclay, Harry Eustace, William Knight, Ismael Mohammed, Stuart Williams, Ralph Beckett (double on Friday so far)

Mucho frustrated:  Dylan Cunha, No winners for over a month but several placed of late, near-misses, and most running very well, so probably just a matter of time before the barren spell ends. He hopes….

Moderate: Jack Channon, Eve Johnson Houghton, Gemma Tutty, Adrian Nicholls, Michael Dods

Don’t know (not enough runners to judge): Christopher Mason (three runners have gone okay), Michael Mullineaux